Group F - decider between Croatia and Belgium

Croatia clinch knockout stage if they take a point against Belgium. Belgium have to win unless Morocco are thrashed by Canada. Morocco clinch knockout stage if they take a point or Croatia beat Belgium.

Group F

						Probabilities
Country	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Croatia	2	4	1	3	4	26%	41%	67%	32%	13%	6%	1.9%
Morocco	2	2	0	2	4	55%	28%	83%	22%	4.7%	1.2%	< 1%
Belgium	2	1	2	-1	3	19%	32%	50%	30%	16%	9%	4.0%
Canada	2	1	5	-4	0

Conditions for Croatia

Canada - Morocco
+4	+3	2-0	3-1	4-2	1-0	2-1	3-2	Draw	Away
99.7%	98.5%	95.7%	95.5%	93%	88%	88%	84%	51%	50%	Bel - Cro
100%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	+4
100%	100%	100%	100%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	+3
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	39%	+2
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	40%	+1
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Away

Conditions for Morocco

Canada - Morocco
+4	3-0	4-1	+2	1-0	2-1	3-2	Draw	Away
28%	44%	50%	56%	62%	63%	67%	100%	100%	Bel - Cro
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	92%	+4
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	81%	+3
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25%	100%	100%	61%	+2
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	60%	+1
< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	97.6%	0-0
< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	97.4%	1-1
< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	95%	2-2
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	92%	3-3
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Away

Conditions for Belgium

Canada - Morocco
+4	3-0	4-1	+2	+1	Draw	Away
72%	58%	52%	49%	49%	49%	50%	Bel - Cro
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Home
100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	0-0
100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	1-1
100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	2-2
100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	3-3
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Away

 

 

Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Argentina vs Poland	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Argentina	22%	15%	< 1%
Denmark	2.0%	4.4%	4.6%
Poland	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%

mutual information: 49.3 mBit

Belgium vs Croatia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Belgium	8%	< 1%	< 1%
Croatia	< 1%	2.9%	3.3%

mutual information: 45.9 mBit

Australia vs Denmark	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	4.1%
Argentina	21%	21%	17%

mutual information: 18.8 mBit

Portugal vs Uruguay	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Uruguay	< 1%	1.9%	3.3%
Portugal	7%	6%	3.5%

mutual information: 7.1 mBit

Iran vs United States

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

mutual information: 6.3 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (53%) Ecuador (40%)
		Netherlands (38%) Ecuador (20%) Iran (14%) England (13%)
Iran (39%) England (27%) United States (27%)
				Argentina (42%) Netherlands (19%) Denmark (15%) Ecuador (6%)
Argentina (73%) Poland (23%)
		Argentina (56%) Denmark (27%) Poland (10%)
Denmark (64%) Australia (32%)
						Brazil (31%) Argentina (24%) Spain (14%) Netherlands (9%)
Spain (86%)
		Spain (61%) Morocco (12%) Croatia (10%)
Morocco (55%) Croatia (26%) Belgium (19%)
				Brazil (47%) Spain (27%) Uruguay (5%)
Brazil (85%)
		Brazil (67%) Uruguay (12%)
Uruguay (41%) South Korea (28%) Portugal (26%)
								Brazil (26%) Argentina (19%) Netherlands (10%) France (9%)
England (72%) Iran (19%)
		England (37%) Netherlands (30%) Ecuador (17%)
Netherlands (45%) Ecuador (39%) Senegal (16%)
				France (43%) Netherlands (18%) England (16%) Ecuador (6%)
France (100%)
		France (71%) Poland (9%)
Poland (33%) Mexico (31%) Saudi Arabia (25%)
						France (23%) Portugal (11%) Netherlands (10%) England (7%) Belgium (7%)
Croatia (41%) Belgium (32%) Morocco (28%)
		Germany (25%) Croatia (22%) Belgium (21%) Morocco (10%)
Germany (45%) Costa Rica (23%) Japan (23%)
				Portugal (21%) Germany (12%) Belgium (12%) Switzerland (12%) Croatia (10%)
Portugal (60%) Uruguay (27%)
		Portugal (34%) Switzerland (23%) Serbia (15%) Uruguay (13%)
Switzerland (49%) Serbia (35%) Brazil (14%)