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Germany must beat Costa Rica to survive and clinch knockout stage unless Japan win - or Japan draw, Germany win with one goal, and Japan score as many goals as Germany.
Japan clinch knockout stage if they beat Spain, or Germany fail to win against Costa Rica. There is also a case, as mentioned above, if Germany win with one goal, Japan draw and score as many goals as Germany when Japan advance ahead of Germany on their internal win.
Spain miss knockout stage, if Japan and Costa Rica both win (3%).
Group E
| Probabilities | ||||||||||||
| Country | Pld | GF | GA | GD | Pts | 2nd | 1st | R16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ |
| Spain | 2 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 16% | 81% | 97.2% | 68% | 32% | 17% | 9% |
| Japan | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6% | 16% | 21% | 9% | 2.1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Costa Rica | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 3 | 27% | 3.3% | 30% | 10% | 2.3% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Germany | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | 51% | 51% | 29% | 14% | 7% | 2.4% | |
Conditions for Spain
| Costa Rica - Germany | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 84% | 100% | 99.88% | Spa - Jap | ||
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Home | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Draw | |
| < 1% | 100% | 99.2% | 82% | Away | |
Conditions for Japan
| Costa Rica - Germany | ||||||||||
| Home | Draw | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2-3 | -2 | -3 | -4 | |||
| 16% | 35% | 31% | 22% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 16% | Spa - Jap | ||
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | Home | |
| < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 20% | 0-0 | |
| < 1% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 28% | 1-1 | |
| < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 39% | 2-2 | |
| < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 41% | 3-3 | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Away | |
Conditions for Costa Rica
| Costa Rica - Germany | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 100% | 65% | < 1% | Spa - Jap | ||
| 100% | 100% | < 1% | 37% | Home | |
| 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | Draw | |
| 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | Away | |
Conditions for Germany
| Costa Rica - Germany | ||||||||||
| Home | Draw | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2-3 | -2 | -3 | -4 | |||
| < 1% | < 1% | 69% | 78% | 83% | 84% | 84% | 84% | Spa - Jap | ||
| < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 63% | Home | |
| < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 63% | 0-0 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 54% | 1-1 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 44% | 2-2 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 41% | 3-3 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | -1 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | -2 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | -3 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 4% | -4 | |
Most important matches (affecting final winners)
| Argentina vs Poland | Home Win | Draw | Away Win |
| Argentina | 22% | 14% | < 1% |
| Denmark | 2.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% |
| Poland | < 1% | < 1% | 1.1% |
| Belgium vs Croatia | Home Win | Draw | Away Win |
| Belgium | 8% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Croatia | < 1% | 2.8% | 3.2% |
| Australia vs Denmark | Home Win | Draw | Away Win |
| Denmark | < 1% | < 1% | 4.1% |
| Argentina | 21% | 21% | 17% |
| Costa Rica vs Germany | Home Win | Draw | Away Win |
| Germany | < 1% | < 1% | 3.9% |
| Spain vs Japan | Home Win | Draw | Away Win |
| Germany | 3.0% | 2.5% | < 1% |
| Brazil | 25% | 26% | 29% |
| Last 16 | Quarter-finals | Semi-finals | Final | Champions | ||||
Netherlands (53%) Ecuador (40%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (38%) Ecuador (20%) Iran (14%) England (13%) | ||||||||
Iran (39%) England (28%) United States (27%) | ||||||||
Argentina (41%) Netherlands (19%) Denmark (15%) Ecuador (6%) | ||||||||
Argentina (73%) Poland (23%) | ||||||||
Argentina (56%) Denmark (27%) Poland (10%) | ||||||||
Denmark (64%) Australia (32%) | ||||||||
Brazil (31%) Argentina (24%) Spain (14%) Netherlands (9%) | ||||||||
Spain (81%) Japan (16%) | ||||||||
Spain (58%) Morocco (13%) Croatia (11%) | ||||||||
Morocco (55%) Croatia (26%) Belgium (19%) | ||||||||
Brazil (48%) Spain (26%) Uruguay (5%) | ||||||||
Brazil (85%) | ||||||||
Brazil (67%) Uruguay (12%) | ||||||||
Uruguay (41%) South Korea (28%) Portugal (26%) | ||||||||
Brazil (26%) Argentina (19%) Netherlands (10%) Spain (9%) | ||||||||
England (72%) Iran (19%) | ||||||||
England (37%) Netherlands (30%) Ecuador (17%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (45%) Ecuador (39%) Senegal (16%) | ||||||||
France (43%) Netherlands (18%) England (16%) Ecuador (6%) | ||||||||
France (100%) | ||||||||
France (71%) Poland (9%) | ||||||||
Poland (33%) Mexico (31%) Saudi Arabia (25%) | ||||||||
France (23%) Portugal (11%) Netherlands (10%) England (7%) Germany (7%) | ||||||||
Croatia (41%) Belgium (32%) Morocco (28%) | ||||||||
Germany (29%) Croatia (21%) Belgium (20%) Spain (11%) | ||||||||
Germany (51%) Costa Rica (27%) Spain (16%) | ||||||||
Portugal (20%) Germany (14%) Belgium (11%) Switzerland (11%) Croatia (9%) | ||||||||
Portugal (60%) Uruguay (27%) | ||||||||
Portugal (35%) Switzerland (23%) Serbia (15%) Uruguay (13%) | ||||||||
Switzerland (49%) Serbia (35%) Brazil (14%) |
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