Group G - Deciding game between Switzerland and Serbia

A deciding game between Switzerland and Serbia. Serbia clinch a knockout stage spot with a win, unless Cameroon beat Brazil. Likewise, a draw suffices for Switzerland unless Cameroon beat Brazil. If Cameroon win and Switzerland do not win, it depends on goal difference as detailed in the tables below. 

Group G

						Probabilities
Country	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Brazil	2	3	0	3	6	< 1%	99.46%	100%	78%	56%	37%	26%
Switzerland	2	1	1	0	3	65%	< 1%	65%	29%	15%	7%	2.1%
Cameroon	2	3	4	-1	1	1.7%		1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Serbia	2	3	5	-2	1	33%		33%	13%	6%	2.5%	< 1%

Conditions for Switzerland

Brazil - Cameroon
Home	Draw	Away
66%	66%	43%	Ser - Swi
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Home
100%	100%	2%	96.5%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	Away

Conditions for Cameroon

Brazil - Cameroon
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	-2	-3	-4
< 1%	< 1%	41%	45%	53%	58%	52%	Ser - Swi
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	-	-	< 1%	+4
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	-	-	< 1%	+3
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24%	100%	100%	-	1.5%	+2
< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	-	3.6%	+1
< 1%	< 1%	93%	99%	100%	100%	-	3.5%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	Away

Conditions for Serbia

Brazil - Cameroon
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	-2	-3	-4
34%	34%	15%	13%	5%	2%	< 1%	Ser - Swi
100%	100%	100%	100%	-	-	-	99.9%	+4
100%	100%	100%	100%	80%	-	-	99.7%	+3
100%	100%	100%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	-	98.5%	+2
100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	96.4%	+1
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	Away

 

 Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Argentina vs Poland	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Argentina	22%	14%	< 1%
Denmark	2.0%	4.2%	4.4%
Poland	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%

mutual information: 48.3 mBit

Belgium vs Croatia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Belgium	8%	< 1%	< 1%
Croatia	< 1%	2.8%	3.1%

mutual information: 44.1 mBit

Serbia vs Switzerland	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Switzerland	< 1%	3.0%	3.2%
Serbia	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%

mutual information: 22.9 mBit

Costa Rica vs Germany	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%

mutual information: 19 mBit

Australia vs Denmark	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%
Argentina	21%	21%	17%

mutual information: 18.1 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (53%) Ecuador (40%)
		Netherlands (38%) Ecuador (20%) Iran (14%) England (13%)
Iran (39%) England (28%) United States (27%)
				Argentina (41%) Netherlands (19%) Denmark (15%) Ecuador (6%)
Argentina (73%) Poland (23%)
		Argentina (56%) Denmark (26%) Poland (10%)
Denmark (64%) Australia (32%)
						Brazil (37%) Argentina (23%) Spain (12%) Netherlands (9%)
Spain (81%) Japan (16%)
		Spain (58%) Morocco (13%) Croatia (11%)
Morocco (55%) Croatia (26%) Belgium (19%)
				Brazil (56%) Spain (24%) Uruguay (5%)
Brazil (99%)
		Brazil (78%) Uruguay (12%)
Uruguay (48%) Portugal (27%) Ghana (15%)
								Brazil (26%) Argentina (18%) Netherlands (10%) France (9%)
England (72%) Iran (19%)
		England (37%) Netherlands (30%) Ecuador (17%)
Netherlands (45%) Ecuador (39%) Senegal (16%)
				France (43%) Netherlands (18%) England (16%) Ecuador (6%)
France (100%)
		France (71%) Poland (9%)
Poland (33%) Mexico (31%) Saudi Arabia (25%)
						France (24%) Portugal (12%) Netherlands (10%) England (7%)
Croatia (41%) Belgium (32%) Morocco (28%)
		Germany (29%) Croatia (21%) Belgium (20%) Spain (11%)
Germany (51%) Costa Rica (27%) Spain (16%)
				Portugal (23%) Germany (14%) Switzerland (14%) Belgium (12%) Croatia (10%)
Portugal (65%) Uruguay (32%)
		Portugal (40%) Switzerland (29%) Uruguay (17%)
Switzerland (65%) Serbia (33%)