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Group H will be decided by a rematch of the 2010 quarterfinal between Ghana and Uruguay. Uruguay must win and hope South Korea are not beating Portugal. Ghana can clinch last 16 round with a win against Uruguay and unkless South Korea win a draw will suffice for Ghana too.
South Korea need to win and hope that Ghana do not beat Uruguay. If they draw Sout Korea need to win with two goals. If Uruguay win it depends on the exact result as detailed in tables below.
Group H
| Probabilities | ||||||||||||
| Country | Pld | GF | GA | GD | Pts | 2nd | 1st | R16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ |
| Portugal | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | < 1% | 99.32% | 100% | 61% | 35% | 19% | 8% |
| Ghana | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20% | < 1% | 21% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| South Korea | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | 9% | 9% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Uruguay | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 | 71% | 71% | 17% | 8% | 3.1% | 1.4% | |
Conditions for Portugal
| Portugal - South Korea | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 100% | 100% | 100% | Gha - Uru | ||
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Home | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Draw | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Away | |
Conditions for Ghana
| Portugal - South Korea | ||||||||
| Home | Draw | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 | |||
| 21% | 21% | 21% | 8% | 8% | 8% | Gha - Uru | ||
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Home | |
| 100% | 100% | 99.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 94% | Draw | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | Away | |
Conditions for South Korea
| Portugal - South Korea | |||||||||||
| Home | Draw | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 1-3 | -3 | -4 | |||
| < 1% | < 1% | 35% | 40% | 41% | 67% | 71% | 81% | 87% | Gha - Uru | ||
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | Home | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 6% | Draw | |
| < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 18% | -1 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 17% | 0-2 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | 49% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 15% | 1-3 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 49% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 10% | 2-4 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 6% | 0-3 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 47% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 5% | 1-4 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 54% | 100% | - | 3% | 2-5 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 87% | 100% | 1.5% | -4 | |
Conditions for Uruguay
| Portugal - South Korea | ||||||||||
| Home | Draw | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 1-3 | -4 | |||
| 79% | 79% | 44% | 39% | 37% | 25% | 21% | 5% | Gha - Uru | ||
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | Home | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | Draw | |
| 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 82% | -1 | |
| 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 83% | 0-2 | |
| 100% | 100% | 51% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 85% | 1-3 | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 51% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | - | 90% | 2-4 | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 94% | 0-3 | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 53% | < 1% | < 1% | 95% | 1-4 | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 46% | - | 97% | 2-5 | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | 98.5% | -4 | |
Most important matches (affecting final winners)
| Argentina vs Poland | Home Win | Draw | Away Win |
| Argentina | 22% | 14% | < 1% |
| Denmark | 2.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% |
| Poland | < 1% | < 1% | 1.0% |
| Belgium vs Croatia | Home Win | Draw | Away Win |
| Belgium | 7% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Croatia | < 1% | 2.6% | 3.0% |
| Serbia vs Switzerland | Home Win | Draw | Away Win |
| Switzerland | < 1% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Serbia | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Costa Rica vs Germany | Home Win | Draw | Away Win |
| Germany | < 1% | < 1% | 3.8% |
| Australia vs Denmark | Home Win | Draw | Away Win |
| Denmark | < 1% | < 1% | 3.9% |
| Argentina | 21% | 21% | 17% |
| Last 16 | Quarter-finals | Semi-finals | Final | Champions | ||||
Netherlands (53%) Ecuador (40%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (39%) Ecuador (20%) Iran (14%) England (13%) | ||||||||
Iran (39%) England (28%) United States (27%) | ||||||||
Argentina (41%) Netherlands (19%) Denmark (15%) Ecuador (6%) | ||||||||
Argentina (73%) Poland (23%) | ||||||||
Argentina (56%) Denmark (27%) Poland (10%) | ||||||||
Denmark (64%) Australia (32%) | ||||||||
Brazil (38%) Argentina (23%) Spain (12%) Netherlands (9%) | ||||||||
Spain (81%) Japan (16%) | ||||||||
Spain (58%) Morocco (13%) Croatia (11%) | ||||||||
Morocco (55%) Croatia (26%) Belgium (19%) | ||||||||
Brazil (58%) Spain (24%) Uruguay (8%) | ||||||||
Brazil (99%) | ||||||||
Brazil (81%) Uruguay (17%) | ||||||||
Uruguay (71%) Ghana (20%) | ||||||||
Brazil (27%) Argentina (18%) Netherlands (9%) France (9%) | ||||||||
England (72%) Iran (19%) | ||||||||
England (37%) Netherlands (30%) Ecuador (17%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (45%) Ecuador (39%) Senegal (16%) | ||||||||
France (43%) Netherlands (18%) England (16%) Ecuador (6%) | ||||||||
France (100%) | ||||||||
France (71%) Poland (9%) | ||||||||
Poland (33%) Mexico (31%) Saudi Arabia (25%) | ||||||||
France (23%) Portugal (19%) Netherlands (10%) England (7%) Germany (7%) | ||||||||
Croatia (41%) Belgium (32%) Morocco (28%) | ||||||||
Germany (29%) Croatia (21%) Belgium (20%) Spain (11%) | ||||||||
Germany (51%) Costa Rica (27%) Spain (16%) | ||||||||
Portugal (35%) Germany (14%) Switzerland (13%) Belgium (11%) | ||||||||
Portugal (99%) | ||||||||
Portugal (61%) Switzerland (27%) | ||||||||
Switzerland (65%) Serbia (33%) |
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