Premier League - Arsenal clinch (95%) CL spot

Hot Teams
Newcastle: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 6.1 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 more than expected
Leicester: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Fulham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected

Cold Teams
Bournemouth: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Chelsea: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Wolves: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Tottenham: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 less than expected
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.67%
Fifth team	>99.99%	99.96%	5%
FA cup winners	99.97%	99.97%	50%
League cup winners	>99.99%	77%	67%
Sixth team	93%	65%	3.5%
Seventh team	60%	12%	2.3%
Eighth team	14%	6%	1.4%

Simulated points for winner: 83 - 90
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
32	Man City	85.4	+59	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	99.80%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	99.85%
34	Arsenal	76.9	+34	< 1%	99.81%	99.32%	98.0%	94%	14%	< 1%	3.7%	95.4%
19	Liverpool	71.6	+40	< 1%	98.8%	96.8%	92%	82%	3.2%	2.3%	11%	85%
26	Tottenham	67.0	+23	< 1%	94%	86%	73%	53%	< 1%	8%	29%	55%
21	Chelsea	64.2	+15	< 1%	86%	73%	54%	32%	< 1%	12%	35%	36%
23	Man United	61.4	+5	< 1%	71%	53%	33%	17%	< 1%	16%	30%	21%
27	Newcastle	59.7	+16	< 1%	65%	45%	27%	13%	< 1%	17%	29%	13%
21	Brighton	57.6	+8	< 1%	49%	31%	16%	7%	< 1%	15%	22%	7%
19	Crystal Palace	53.2	-3	< 1%	22%	11%	5%	1.8%	< 1%	9%	11%	1.8%
14	Leicester	46.2	-4	6%	3.6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.8%	4.0%	< 1%
14	West Ham	46.1	-5	6%	3.5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%	21%	< 1%
15	Leeds	45.6	-10	8%	3.0%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	3.2%	< 1%
16	Brentford	44.7	-11	9%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	2.7%	< 1%
15	Aston Villa	44.1	-14	11%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	2.6%	< 1%
19	Fulham	43.6	-17	13%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%
14	Everton	40.7	-15	25%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%
12	Southampton	38.7	-23	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	1.4%	< 1%
10	Wolves	38.2	-23	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	2.0%	< 1%
13	Bournemouth	36.1	-35	59%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Forest	32.4	-39	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Man City	92%	47%	11%	1.0%	15%	3.8%	1.0%
Arsenal	40%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%
Liverpool	54%	13%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	20%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brighton	5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Leicester	6%	< 1%
West Ham	22%	1.1%	< 1%
Leeds	3.3%	< 1%
Brentford	4.5%	< 1%
Aston Villa	2.9%	< 1%
Fulham	1.1%
Everton	2.1%	< 1%
Southampton	2.6%	< 1%
Wolves	3.1%	< 1%
Bournemouth	1.3%	< 1%
Forest	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Man City	79%	13%	8%	Brentford
Liverpool	81%	12%	7%	Southampton
Forest	34%	24%	42%	Crystal Palace
Tottenham	65%	19%	16%	Leeds
West Ham	49%	23%	28%	Leicester
Bournemouth	43%	24%	32%	Everton
Newcastle	37%	24%	39%	Chelsea
Wolves	31%	24%	45%	Arsenal
Brighton	56%	22%	22%	Aston Villa
Fulham	34%	24%	42%	Man United