PL: Southampton vs Forest in do-or-die

Important match on Wednesday when Southampton host Nottingham Forest. A win is worth 20% gain in the probability of escaping relegation.

In the other end of the table, Arsenal are hosting Newcastle while Man City travel to Stamford Bridge.

Hot Teams
Arsenal: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 5.8 more than expected
Aston Villa: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Newcastle: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Man United: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 more than expected
Brentford: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected

Cold Teams
West Ham: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 6.4 less than expected
Southampton: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Chelsea: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Everton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Bournemouth: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.6%
Fifth team	>99.99%	99.98%	6%
FA cup winners	99.9%	99.9%	49%
League cup winners	100%	82%	67%
Sixth team	95%	66%	4.3%
Seventh team	66%	15%	3.3%
Eighth team	15%	6%	1.5%

Simulated points for winner: 83 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
43	Arsenal	83.1	+43	< 1%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.8%	99.0%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	99.2%
36	Man City	81.7	+55	< 1%	99.99%	99.93%	99.6%	98.7%	43%	< 1%	< 1%	99.0%
28	Liverpool	72.9	+39	< 1%	99.2%	97.1%	92%	80%	3.7%	2.3%	13%	83%
32	Man United	68.7	+14	< 1%	95.4%	87%	71%	48%	< 1%	10%	31%	53%
34	Newcastle	67.3	+28	< 1%	94%	84%	65%	41%	< 1%	13%	39%	40%
30	Tottenham	64.1	+17	< 1%	85%	65%	40%	20%	< 1%	18%	38%	23%
25	Chelsea	61.8	+12	< 1%	73%	47%	25%	11%	< 1%	20%	32%	16%
24	Brighton	56.3	+7	< 1%	33%	15%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	14%	14%	2.0%
23	Brentford	50.3	-3	< 1%	7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	4.1%	< 1%
22	Crystal Palace	49.1	-10	1.1%	4.9%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	3.5%	< 1%
21	Aston Villa	48.0	-10	1.5%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	2.8%	< 1%
25	Fulham	47.9	-10	1.3%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	2.2%	< 1%
17	Leicester	45.9	-5	3.5%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	3.3%	< 1%
16	Leeds	41.7	-15	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%
14	West Ham	40.4	-14	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	< 1%
15	Everton	37.8	-18	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%
16	Bournemouth	36.2	-34	48%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Wolves	35.6	-28	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	1.4%	< 1%
12	Southampton	34.3	-29	60%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Forest	33.2	-39	69%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Arsenal	65%	15%	< 1%		5%
Man City	82%	41%	10%	< 1%	8%	1.9%	< 1%
Liverpool	31%	3.3%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Man United	34%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	22%	1.1%	< 1%		< 1%
Tottenham	11%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	12%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	3.8%	< 1%			< 1%
Brentford	2.6%
Crystal Palace	2.3%
Aston Villa	2.2%
Fulham	1.5%
Leicester	7%	< 1%
Leeds	1.6%
West Ham	18%	< 1%
Everton	1.3%
Bournemouth	< 1%
Wolves	4.1%	< 1%
Southampton	3.2%	< 1%
Forest	2.5%	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Newcastle (2.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	57%	47%	42%
Man City	39%	47%	51%
Newcastle	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%
Liverpool	3.1%	4%	5%
Chelsea vs Man City (2.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	36%	41%	50%
Arsenal	58%	54%	46%
Liverpool	5%	4%	2.9%

	Arsenal			Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
96	1.4%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
95	2.2%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	3.4%	1.2%	99%	1.3%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
93	5.0%	1.6%	99%	2.2%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	7%	2.1%	97%	3.5%	1.3%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-
91	10%	2.9%	96%	5%	1.8%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	13%	3.5%	94%	8%	2.5%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-
89	18%	4.2%	90%	11%	3.3%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	-
88	23%	5%	86%	15%	4.0%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	74%
87	28%	6%	81%	20%	4.9%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	71%
86	34%	6%	74%	26%	6%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	61%
85	41%	7%	69%	32%	6%	65%	1.5%	< 1%	50%
84	48%	7%	60%	38%	7%	59%	2.5%	< 1%	39%
83	55%	7%	53%	46%	7%	50%	3.9%	1.4%	30%
82	62%	7%	42%	53%	7%	42%	6%	1.9%	24%
81	68%	6%	35%	60%	7%	35%	8%	2.6%	17%
80	74%	6%	26%	66%	7%	26%	12%	3.3%	11%
79	79%	5%	20%	72%	6%	19%	16%	4.2%	7%
78	84%	4.5%	13%	78%	5%	13%	21%	4.9%	4%
77	88%	3.9%	9%	83%	4.9%	10%	26%	6%	2%
76	91%	3.2%	6%	87%	4.0%	5%	33%	6%	1%
75	93%	2.5%	3%	90%	3.4%	3%	39%	7%	< 1%
74	95.2%	1.9%	1%	93%	2.7%	2%	46%	7%	< 1%
73	96.6%	1.5%	< 1%	95%	2.1%	< 1%	54%	7%	< 1%
72	97.8%	1.1%	< 1%	96.4%	1.6%	< 1%	61%	7%	< 1%
71	98.5%	< 1%	< 1%	97.5%	1.2%	< 1%	67%	7%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Southampton vs Forest (4.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Southampton	48%	34%	27%
Forest	24%	32%	44%
Leeds vs West Ham (2.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	76%	82%	89%
Leeds	91%	85%	80%

	Forest			Southampton			Wolves			Bournemouth			Everton			West Ham			Leeds			Leicester			Aston Villa			Fulham			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
49	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	3.0%	1.0%	100%	8%	2.2%	100%	12%	3.0%	100%	32%	6%	100%	46%	7%	100%	45%	7%	100%	53%	7%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	1.8%	< 1%	100%	2.2%	< 1%	100%	4.3%	1.4%	100%	11%	2.9%	100%	16%	3.8%	100%	39%	6%	100%	53%	7%	100%	52%	7%	100%	60%	7%	100%
47	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.6%	< 1%	100%	2.6%	< 1%	100%	3.2%	1.0%	100%	6%	1.9%	100%	15%	3.6%	100%	20%	4.4%	100%	46%	7%	100%	60%	7%	100%	59%	7%	100%	67%	6%	100%
46	1.4%	< 1%	100%	2.3%	< 1%	100%	3.9%	1.3%	100%	4.7%	1.4%	100%	9%	2.4%	100%	19%	4.3%	100%	26%	5%	100%	52%	7%	100%	66%	7%	100%	66%	7%	100%	73%	6%	100%
45	2.2%	< 1%	100%	3.4%	1.1%	100%	6%	1.6%	100%	7%	1.9%	100%	12%	3.0%	100%	24%	5%	100%	31%	6%	100%	59%	7%	100%	73%	6%	100%	72%	6%	100%	78%	5%	100%
44	3.2%	1.1%	100%	5.0%	1.5%	100%	8%	2.2%	100%	9%	2.5%	100%	15%	3.7%	100%	29%	5%	100%	38%	6%	100%	66%	7%	100%	78%	6%	100%	78%	6%	100%	83%	4.9%	99.9%
43	4.8%	1.5%	99.9%	7%	2.0%	99.9%	11%	2.9%	99.9%	12%	3.3%	99.9%	20%	4.4%	99.9%	35%	6%	100%	44%	7%	100%	72%	6%	99.9%	83%	4.8%	99.9%	83%	5%	100%	87%	4.1%	100%
42	7%	1.9%	99%	10%	2.6%	99.8%	14%	3.6%	99.9%	16%	4.0%	99.7%	25%	5%	99.8%	42%	7%	99.9%	51%	7%	99.9%	77%	6%	99.9%	87%	4.3%	99.9%	87%	4.4%	99.9%	90%	3.5%	100%
41	9%	2.4%	99%	13%	3.3%	99%	19%	4.4%	99%	21%	4.7%	99%	31%	6%	99.7%	49%	7%	99.8%	58%	7%	99.7%	82%	4.8%	99.9%	91%	3.4%	99.7%	91%	3.5%	99.8%	93%	2.8%	99%
40	12%	3.2%	97%	17%	4.1%	97%	24%	5%	97%	27%	5%	96%	37%	6%	99%	56%	7%	99%	64%	7%	99%	86%	4.3%	99%	93%	2.7%	99%	94%	2.8%	99%	95.2%	2.1%	99%
39	16%	3.9%	90%	22%	4.8%	93%	29%	6%	93%	33%	6%	92%	44%	7%	96%	62%	7%	97%	71%	6%	97%	90%	3.5%	97%	95.5%	2.1%	96%	95.9%	2.2%	96%	96.7%	1.5%	97%
38	21%	4.7%	80%	27%	6%	84%	36%	6%	85%	40%	7%	82%	52%	7%	91%	69%	6%	92%	76%	6%	92%	93%	2.8%	94%	97.0%	1.5%	90%	97.4%	1.5%	92%	97.9%	1.2%	91%
37	27%	6%	65%	33%	6%	71%	42%	7%	73%	47%	7%	70%	59%	7%	80%	75%	6%	84%	82%	5%	82%	95%	2.1%	86%	98.1%	1.1%	80%	98.4%	1.0%	83%	98.7%	< 1%	80%
36	33%	6%	47%	40%	7%	55%	50%	7%	58%	54%	7%	54%	66%	7%	67%	80%	5%	69%	86%	4.3%	69%	96.5%	1.7%	71%	98.8%	< 1%	67%	99.1%	< 1%	66%	99.2%	< 1%	67%
35	40%	7%	32%	47%	7%	39%	57%	7%	40%	61%	7%	37%	72%	7%	49%	85%	4.5%	54%	89%	3.6%	51%	97.6%	1.2%	55%	99.3%	< 1%	46%	99.5%	< 1%	45%	99.6%	< 1%	49%
34	47%	7%	18%	55%	7%	24%	64%	7%	25%	68%	7%	23%	78%	6%	34%	89%	4.0%	38%	92%	3.0%	33%	98.5%	< 1%	35%	99.6%	< 1%	30%	99.7%	< 1%	32%	99.8%	< 1%	27%
33	54%	7%	9%	62%	7%	12%	71%	7%	14%	75%	6%	12%	83%	5%	19%	92%	3.2%	22%	95%	2.3%	19%	99.0%	< 1%	22%	99.8%	< 1%	17%	99.9%	< 1%	18%	99.9%	< 1%	-
32	61%	7%	4%	68%	7%	6%	77%	6%	7%	80%	6%	6%	87%	4.5%	10%	94%	2.5%	12%	96.5%	1.7%	11%	99.4%	< 1%	14%	99.91%	< 1%	6%	99.94%	< 1%	-	99.93%	< 1%	-
31	69%	7%	2%	75%	6%	2%	82%	5%	3%	85%	5.0%	2%	91%	3.5%	4%	96.1%	1.9%	5%	97.7%	1.2%	5%	99.7%	< 1%	6%	99.96%	< 1%	-	99.98%	< 1%	-	99.97%	< 1%	-
30	75%	6%	< 1%	80%	6%	< 1%	87%	4.5%	1%	89%	4.0%	< 1%	94%	2.7%	2%	97.5%	1.3%	3%	98.6%	< 1%	2%	99.8%	< 1%	1%	99.98%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.99%	< 1%	-
29	81%	6%	< 1%	85%	4.9%	< 1%	90%	3.7%	< 1%	93%	3.3%	< 1%	95.8%	2.1%	< 1%	98.4%	< 1%	1%	99.1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	-	99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-
28	86%	4.9%	< 1%	89%	4.2%	< 1%	93%	2.9%	< 1%	95.1%	2.5%	< 1%	97.2%	1.5%	< 1%	99.0%	< 1%	< 1%	99.5%	< 1%	< 1%	99.95%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-
27	90%	4.1%	< 1%	92%	3.1%	< 1%	95.4%	2.2%	< 1%	96.9%	1.8%	< 1%	98.3%	1.1%	< 1%	99.5%	< 1%	< 1%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-
26	93%	3.2%	< 1%	95%	2.5%	< 1%	97.0%	1.6%	< 1%	98.2%	1.3%	< 1%	99.0%	< 1%	< 1%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	95.4%	2.5%	< 1%	96.7%	1.7%	< 1%	98.1%	1.2%	< 1%	99.0%	< 1%	< 1%	99.5%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points




Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brentford	23%	22%	55%	Liverpool
Arsenal	57%	22%	21%	Newcastle
Everton	37%	24%	39%	Brighton
Leicester	57%	22%	21%	Fulham
Man United	70%	17%	12%	Bournemouth
Southampton	54%	22%	24%	Forest
Leeds	44%	24%	32%	West Ham
Aston Villa	54%	22%	24%	Wolves
Crystal Palace	35%	24%	41%	Tottenham
Chelsea	33%	24%	43%	Man City