Thursday, January 5, 2023

PL: Man City back as favorites

Man City back as favorites after a win on the bridge. The two title contenders have tough derbys next week. In the other end, Forest, Southampton and Wolves all play bottom half teams.

Hot Teams
Brentford: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 5.8 more than expected
Aston Villa: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 more than expected
Fulham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Newcastle: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
West Ham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.8 less than expected
Southampton: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 5.5 less than expected
Everton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Chelsea: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Bournemouth: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 less than expected


EuropeEL (or CL)CL
Fourth team100%100%99.58%
Fifth team>99.99%99.96%6%
FA cup winners99.90%99.90%48%
League cup winners100%82%69%
Sixth team95%66%4.6%
Seventh team66%15%3.3%
Eighth team16%6%1.9%


Simulated points for winner: 83 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38


Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
39Man City83.2+55< 1%>99.99%99.97%99.84%99.32%55%< 1%< 1%99.49%
44Arsenal82.2+42< 1%>99.99%99.94%99.71%98.8%41%< 1%< 1%99.05%
28Liverpool71.0+36< 1%98.4%94%85%70%1.6%3.9%19%74%
35Man United69.4+16< 1%95.9%88%73%53%< 1%9%29%57%
35Newcastle67.4+28< 1%94%83%64%41%< 1%13%37%41%
33Tottenham65.7+21< 1%89%74%50%28%< 1%15%39%31%
25Chelsea60.6+12< 1%62%35%17%7%< 1%19%26%12%
27Brighton57.9+10< 1%41%20%9%3.2%< 1%17%17%3.2%
26Brentford52.4-1< 1%10%3.5%1.1%< 1%< 1%6%5%< 1%
28Fulham50.1-8< 1%4.9%1.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.8%2.6%< 1%
22Crystal Palace47.8-131.5%2.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.5%2.9%< 1%
22Aston Villa47.1-111.7%1.7%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.1%2.6%< 1%
17Leicester44.0-66%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%4.5%3.0%< 1%
17Leeds41.1-1614%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.7%< 1%
15West Ham40.3-1317%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%18%< 1%
15Everton36.5-2140%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.3%< 1%
14Wolves35.6-2747%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.8%1.4%< 1%
16Bournemouth35.6-3650%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
17Forest35.3-3853%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.8%< 1%< 1%
12Southampton32.4-3171%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.2%1.0%< 1%


Titles
TeamOne TitleTwo titlesThree titlesFour titlesDoubleTripleQuadruple
Man City86%47%12%1.2%10%2.4%1.2%
Arsenal57%12%< 1%
4.1%

Liverpool29%2.7%< 1%
< 1%< 1%
Man United35%3.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Newcastle22%1.1%< 1%
< 1%

Tottenham11%< 1%< 1%
< 1%< 1%
Chelsea12%< 1%< 1%
< 1%< 1%
Brighton3.8%< 1%

< 1%

Brentford2.6%





Fulham1.5%





Crystal Palace2.3%





Aston Villa2.2%





Leicester7%< 1%




Leeds1.6%





West Ham18%< 1%




Everton1.3%





Wolves4.1%< 1%




Bournemouth< 1%





Forest2.5%< 1%




Southampton3.2%< 1%




Important matches for title race
Man United vs Man City (2.9%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Man City47%53%63%
Arsenal48%44%35%
Man United2.1%< 1%< 1%
Tottenham vs Arsenal (2.4%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Arsenal35%40%50%
Man City61%57%48%



Man CityArsenalLiverpool
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
951.4%< 1%99.7%1.2%< 1%99.6%< 1%< 1%-
942.4%< 1%99.6%2.0%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-
933.8%1.4%98.8%3.1%1.1%98%< 1%< 1%-
926%2.1%98.0%4.7%1.6%96%< 1%< 1%-
919%2.7%97%7%2.2%94%< 1%< 1%-
9012%3.6%95%10%2.8%91%< 1%< 1%-
8917%4.4%92%13%3.5%87%< 1%< 1%82%
8822%5%89%17%4.3%81%< 1%< 1%78%
8728%6%85%22%5%75%< 1%< 1%71%
8634%7%78%28%6%68%< 1%< 1%57%
8541%7%72%35%6%60%< 1%< 1%47%
8449%7%65%41%7%52%< 1%< 1%38%
8356%7%57%48%7%43%1.4%< 1%30%
8263%7%48%55%7%35%2.3%< 1%22%
8170%7%40%62%7%27%3.7%1.4%15%
8075%6%32%69%6%21%6%1.9%9%
7981%5%24%75%6%14%8%2.6%6%
7885%4.4%17%80%5%10%12%3.4%3.2%
7789%3.7%12%85%4.6%6%16%4.2%1.9%
7692%3.0%7%88%3.8%3.7%21%5%< 1%
7594%2.3%4%91%3.1%1.9%27%6%< 1%
7495.9%1.8%2%94%2.4%< 1%33%6%< 1%
7397.2%1.3%1.2%95.7%1.9%< 1%40%7%< 1%
7298.1%< 1%< 1%97.1%1.4%< 1%47%7%< 1%
7198.8%< 1%< 1%98.1%< 1%< 1%55%7%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for CL race
Brighton vs Liverpool (2.2%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Liverpool66%71%80%
Brighton6%3.0%1.7%



LiverpoolMan UnitedNewcastleTottenhamChelseaBrighton
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
831.4%< 1%100%1.0%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
822.3%< 1%100%1.7%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
813.7%1.4%100%2.6%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
806%1.9%99.99%3.9%1.3%>99.99%1.6%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-
798%2.6%>99.99%6%1.8%99.9%2.5%< 1%99.9%1.0%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-
7812%3.4%99.9%8%2.3%99.8%3.7%1.2%99.8%1.7%< 1%99.6%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%100%
7716%4.2%99.8%11%3.0%99.5%5%1.7%99.4%2.6%< 1%99.2%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%
7621%5%99.5%15%3.7%98.8%8%2.3%98.6%3.9%1.3%98%< 1%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%99%
7527%6%99.0%19%4.4%97.2%11%2.9%97%6%1.8%96%< 1%< 1%96%< 1%< 1%96%
7433%6%97.7%24%5%95%14%3.6%94%8%2.4%92%< 1%< 1%93%< 1%< 1%91%
7340%7%95.2%30%6%90%19%4.4%90%11%3.1%87%1.6%< 1%87%< 1%< 1%86%
7247%7%92%36%6%84%24%5%83%15%3.9%80%2.5%< 1%79%< 1%< 1%77%
7155%7%86%43%7%76%29%6%74%20%4.6%70%3.8%1.3%68%1.4%< 1%64%
7062%7%79%50%7%66%36%6%64%25%5%58%6%1.8%55%2.2%< 1%51%
6968%7%70%57%7%55%42%7%52%31%6%46%8%2.4%41%3.3%1.1%38%
6874%6%59%63%7%43%49%7%39%37%6%35%11%3.0%31%4.8%1.5%26%
6780%5%48%70%6%32%56%7%28%44%7%25%15%3.8%21%7%2.0%16%
6684%4.6%38%75%6%24%63%7%18%51%7%17%19%4.5%15%9%2.6%9%
6588%3.8%30%80%5%18%69%6%11%58%7%12%24%5%10%13%3.2%5%
6491%3.1%23%85%4.4%13%75%6%6%65%7%8%30%6%7%16%3.9%2.1%
6394%2.5%19%89%3.7%11%80%5%2.9%71%6%6%37%6%6%21%4.6%< 1%
6295.7%1.9%17%92%3.0%9%85%4.5%1.3%77%6%4.8%44%7%6%26%5%< 1%
6197.0%1.4%15%94%2.4%9%89%3.8%< 1%82%5%4.3%51%7%5%32%6%< 1%
6098.0%< 1%15%95.8%1.8%8%92%3.1%< 1%86%4.3%4.2%58%7%5%39%6%< 1%
5998.7%< 1%15%97.2%1.4%9%94%2.4%< 1%90%3.5%4%64%7%5%45%7%< 1%
5899.21%< 1%14%98.2%< 1%9%95.8%1.8%< 1%93%2.8%4%71%6%5%52%7%< 1%
5799.52%< 1%14%98.8%< 1%8%97.2%1.4%< 1%95%2.2%4%76%6%5%59%7%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for avoiding relegation
Everton vs Southampton (5%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Everton69%56%47%
Southampton22%30%43%
Wolves vs West Ham (4.4%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Wolves63%49%42%
West Ham77%84%91%
Forest vs Leicester (3.4%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Forest59%46%39%
Leicester91%94%97.3%



SouthamptonForestBournemouthWolvesEvertonWest HamLeedsLeicesterAston VillaCrystal Palace
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
48< 1%< 1%100%1.3%< 1%100%1.6%< 1%100%1.6%< 1%100%2.3%< 1%100%10%2.7%100%13%3.3%100%27%5%100%47%7%100%51%7%100%
47< 1%< 1%100%2.0%< 1%100%2.5%< 1%100%2.4%< 1%100%3.4%1.2%100%13%3.4%100%17%4.0%100%33%6%100%54%7%100%58%7%100%
46< 1%< 1%100%3.0%1.0%100%3.6%1.2%100%3.6%1.2%100%5.0%1.6%100%17%4.1%100%22%4.7%100%39%6%100%61%7%100%65%7%100%
451.4%< 1%100%4.4%1.4%100%5%1.6%100%5%1.6%>99.99%7%2.1%100%22%4.9%100%27%5%100%46%7%100%68%7%100%71%6%100%
442.2%< 1%100%6%1.9%99.99%7%2.1%100%7%2.2%>99.99%10%2.7%100%28%6%100%33%6%100%53%7%100%74%6%100%77%6%100%
433.3%1.1%>99.99%9%2.5%99.98%10%2.8%99.99%10%2.8%99.98%13%3.5%99.99%34%6%>99.99%40%7%>99.99%60%7%>99.99%80%6%>99.99%82%5%100%
424.8%1.5%99.9%12%3.2%99.8%14%3.5%99.9%14%3.6%99.9%18%4.2%99.9%41%7%99.99%47%7%99.97%66%7%99.98%84%4.8%99.98%87%4.4%99.97%
417%2.1%99.5%16%4.0%99.4%18%4.3%99.5%18%4.4%99.6%23%5.0%99.8%48%7%99.9%54%7%99.9%73%6%99.94%88%4.1%99.9%90%3.6%99.8%
4010%2.7%98.1%21%4.8%97.8%23%5%97.9%23%5%98.5%28%6%99.0%55%7%99.5%61%7%99.4%78%6%99.6%92%3.3%99.4%93%2.8%99.2%
3913%3.4%94%26%6%94%29%6%94%29%6%95.7%35%6%96.9%62%7%98.2%67%7%97.9%83%4.9%98.5%94%2.5%97.8%95.1%2.2%98%
3817%4.1%87%33%6%86%35%7%87%36%7%89%42%7%92%68%7%95%74%6%94%87%4.2%96%96.2%1.9%94%96.8%1.6%93%
3722%4.9%75%40%7%73%42%7%74%43%7%79%49%7%83%75%6%88%79%6%86%91%3.4%89%97.5%1.4%85%97.9%1.2%84%
3628%6%58%47%7%57%50%7%58%50%7%64%56%7%69%80%5%76%84%4.9%74%93%2.7%78%98.5%< 1%71%98.7%< 1%69%
3534%6%41%55%8%39%57%7%41%58%7%46%64%7%52%85%4.7%60%88%4.1%57%95.5%2.1%62%99.09%< 1%55%99.27%< 1%53%
3441%7%25%62%7%24%64%7%26%65%7%30%70%7%35%89%4.0%42%91%3.3%40%97.0%1.5%44%99.49%< 1%35%99.59%< 1%34%
3348%7%13%69%7%13%71%7%14%71%7%17%77%6%21%92%3.2%27%94%2.6%24%98.1%1.1%26%99.73%< 1%19%99.78%< 1%19%
3256%7%6%76%7%6%78%6%6%78%6%9%82%5%11%94%2.5%14%96.0%2.0%12%98.8%< 1%15%99.86%< 1%10%99.89%< 1%8%
3163%7%2.6%82%6%2.3%83%5%2.7%83%5%3.7%87%4.6%5%96.3%1.8%7%97.4%1.4%6%99.30%< 1%6%99.94%< 1%3%99.95%< 1%5%
3070%7%< 1%87%4.9%< 1%88%4.6%< 1%87%4.5%1.3%90%3.8%2.0%97.6%1.3%2%98.4%< 1%2%99.60%< 1%2%99.97%< 1%2%99.98%< 1%1%
2976%6%< 1%91%4.0%< 1%91%3.7%< 1%91%3.7%< 1%93%3.0%< 1%98.5%< 1%< 1%99.05%< 1%< 1%99.78%< 1%< 1%99.99%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%< 1%
2882%6%< 1%94%3.1%< 1%94%2.9%< 1%94%2.8%< 1%95.7%2.2%< 1%99.13%< 1%< 1%99.47%< 1%< 1%99.89%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-
2787%4.7%< 1%96.1%2.3%< 1%96.3%2.1%< 1%96.0%2.1%< 1%97.3%1.6%< 1%99.50%< 1%< 1%99.72%< 1%< 1%99.95%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-
2691%3.8%< 1%97.6%1.6%< 1%97.7%1.5%< 1%97.5%1.5%< 1%98.4%1.1%< 1%99.73%< 1%< 1%99.87%< 1%< 1%99.98%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-100%< 1%-
2594%3.0%< 1%98.7%1.0%< 1%98.7%< 1%< 1%98.5%1.0%< 1%99.07%< 1%< 1%99.87%< 1%< 1%99.94%< 1%< 1%99.99%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points




Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Fulham29%24%48%Chelsea
Aston Villa53%23%25%Leeds
Man United30%24%46%Man City
Everton52%23%25%Southampton
Forest33%24%43%Leicester
Wolves43%24%33%West Ham
Brighton27%23%50%Liverpool
Brentford60%21%19%Bournemouth
Chelsea65%19%16%Crystal Palace
Newcastle66%19%15%Fulham
Tottenham43%24%33%Arsenal



 

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