Wednesday, February 15, 2023

PL: Man City 61% favourites

 Man City back in top with 1.p ahead of Arsenal in average points in the simulations and winning the league in 61% of the simulations.

Hot Teams
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 5.2 more than expected
Forest: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 more than expected
Brentford: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 more than expected
Brighton: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Man City: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 more than expected

Cold Teams
Liverpool: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 5.6 less than expected
Leeds: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Southampton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
Bournemouth: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
51Man City83.2+55< 1%>99.99%>99.99%99.99%99.92%61%< 1%< 1%99.94%
51Arsenal81.6+42< 1%>99.99%>99.99%99.95%99.74%38%< 1%< 1%99.80%
46Man United71.9+18< 1%99.13%97.1%92%82%1.1%2.6%13%84%
41Newcastle66.0+27< 1%92%81%65%43%< 1%17%35%43%
32Liverpool64.6+22< 1%87%73%53%31%< 1%14%34%38%
39Tottenham64.6+16< 1%86%70%50%28%< 1%15%41%30%
35Brighton61.3+15< 1%68%45%26%12%< 1%19%38%12%
31Chelsea57.7+8< 1%36%19%9%3.0%< 1%15%13%8%
34Brentford55.7+5< 1%22%10%4.3%1.4%< 1%11%8%1.4%
35Fulham52.6-3< 1%7%2.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%4.3%4.4%< 1%
28Aston Villa49.3-10< 1%2.4%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.5%< 1%< 1%
25Crystal Palace45.1-142.4%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
24Leicester44.2-63.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%4.6%< 1%
23Wolves41.0-2111%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
20West Ham39.9-1214%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%18%< 1%
24Forest39.0-3222%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
19Leeds37.6-1729%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.6%< 1%
18Everton34.3-2357%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
18Bournemouth32.5-3874%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
15Southampton30.0-3487%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.8%< 1%


Titles
TeamOne TitleTwo titlesThree titlesFour titlesDoubleTripleQuadruple
Man City84%40%7%
28%7%
Arsenal51%8%




Man United64%14%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Newcastle49%< 1%




Liverpool10%< 1%




Tottenham13%< 1%< 1%
< 1%< 1%
Brighton12%< 1%

< 1%

Chelsea4.7%





Fulham2.3%





Leicester4.6%





West Ham18%< 1%




Leeds1.6%





Southampton1.7%





Important matches for title race
Aston Villa vs Arsenal (3.3%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Arsenal29%34%45%
Man City70%65%54%
Forest vs Man City (2.7%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Man City48%54%66%
Arsenal50%44%33%



Man CityArsenalMan United
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
931.4%< 1%99.8%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-
922.7%1.3%99.6%1.6%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%-
915%2.4%98.9%2.8%1.2%96%< 1%< 1%-
908%2.7%97.9%4.5%1.7%94%< 1%< 1%-
8912%4.5%96.4%7%2.7%90%< 1%< 1%-
8818%5%94%11%3.5%85%< 1%< 1%75%
8724%6%90%15%4.5%79%< 1%< 1%62%
8632%8%86%21%6%71%< 1%< 1%53%
8540%8%79%28%7%62%< 1%< 1%45%
8448%9%72%35%7%53%< 1%< 1%33%
8357%9%64%43%8%43%1.3%< 1%23%
8265%8%55%51%8%35%2.1%< 1%16%
8172%7%46%59%8%27%3.6%1.5%10%
8079%6%37%67%8%20%6%2.1%6%
7984%5%29%74%7%14%8%2.8%4%
7889%4.4%21%80%6%9%12%3.9%1.9%
7792%3.4%15%85%5%6%17%4.8%< 1%
7695%2.5%10%90%4.1%3.6%23%6%< 1%
7596.5%1.8%6%93%3.2%1.9%30%7%< 1%
7497.8%1.3%3%95.2%2.4%1.1%37%8%< 1%
7398.7%< 1%2%96.9%1.7%< 1%45%8%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for CL race
Newcastle vs Liverpool (6.3%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Newcastle56%41%31%
Liverpool28%36%49%



Man UnitedNewcastleLiverpoolTottenhamBrightonChelseaBrentford
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
7812%3.9%>99.99%1.2%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7717%4.8%>99.99%1.9%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7623%6%99.97%3.1%1.2%99.9%1.2%< 1%99.9%1.2%< 1%99.7%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7530%7%99.9%4.8%1.7%99.7%2.2%< 1%99.5%1.9%< 1%99.4%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7437%8%99.6%7%2.3%99.3%3.5%1.3%98.9%3.3%1.3%98%< 1%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%98%
7345%8%99.1%10%3.2%98.2%6%2.1%97%5%1.9%96%1.5%< 1%96%< 1%< 1%97%< 1%< 1%94%
7254%8%97.6%14%3.9%96%8%2.8%94%8%2.6%92%2.4%< 1%92%< 1%< 1%94%< 1%< 1%94%
7162%8%95%19%4.9%92%12%3.7%89%11%3.6%86%3.8%1.4%84%< 1%< 1%88%< 1%< 1%87%
7069%8%89%25%6%85%17%4.7%82%16%4.5%77%6%2.0%75%< 1%< 1%78%< 1%< 1%76%
6976%7%82%32%7%75%22%6%73%21%5%66%8%2.6%62%1.3%< 1%66%< 1%< 1%63%
6882%6%70%39%7%63%29%7%61%28%7%52%12%3.4%48%2.3%< 1%50%< 1%< 1%49%
6787%4.9%57%46%8%49%36%7%48%35%7%39%16%4.3%34%3.6%1.4%37%1.6%< 1%34%
6691%3.9%44%54%8%36%44%8%37%43%8%27%21%5%21%6%2.1%24%2.6%1.0%21%
6594%3.0%30%62%8%23%52%8%27%51%8%17%27%6%12%9%2.8%15%4.1%1.5%11%
6495.8%2.2%21%69%7%14%59%8%19%59%8%10%34%7%6%12%3.7%9%6%2.0%5%
6397.4%1.5%15%75%7%7%67%7%15%66%8%6%41%7%2.9%17%4.7%7%9%2.8%2.0%
6298.4%1.0%12%81%6%3.2%73%7%12%73%7%4.0%49%8%1.0%22%6%5%13%3.6%< 1%
6199.08%< 1%10%86%4.9%1.1%79%6%11%80%6%3.1%56%8%< 1%29%7%4.8%17%4.5%< 1%
6099.49%< 1%10%90%3.9%< 1%84%5%10%85%5%2.7%64%7%< 1%36%7%4.6%23%6%< 1%
5999.73%< 1%11%93%3.1%< 1%88%4.1%10%89%4.3%2.8%71%7%< 1%44%8%4.6%29%6%< 1%
5899.87%< 1%10%95.3%2.3%< 1%92%3.3%10%92%3.4%2.8%77%6%< 1%52%8%4.7%36%7%< 1%
5799.94%< 1%10%96.9%1.7%< 1%94%2.5%11%95%2.5%2.5%82%5%< 1%60%8%4.7%44%8%< 1%
5699.97%< 1%8%98.1%1.2%< 1%96.2%1.9%10%96.7%1.8%3%87%4.6%< 1%67%7%4.8%51%8%< 1%
5599.99%< 1%8%98.9%< 1%< 1%97.5%1.4%10%98.0%1.2%3%91%3.7%< 1%74%7%4.7%59%8%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Liverpool (4.7%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Newcastle87%77%70%
Liverpool63%70%81%



TottenhamBrightonNewcastleLiverpoolWest HamChelseaMan UnitedBrentfordLeicesterFulhamSouthamptonLeeds
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
6921%5%98.8%8%2.6%98.5%32%7%99.3%22%6%99.1%< 1%< 1%-1.3%< 1%98%76%7%99.4%< 1%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%96%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6828%7%97.4%12%3.4%96.7%39%7%98.4%29%7%97.9%< 1%< 1%-2.3%< 1%95%82%6%98.6%< 1%< 1%95%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%95%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6735%7%95%16%4.3%94%46%8%96.5%36%7%95.9%< 1%< 1%-3.6%1.4%91%87%4.9%96.9%1.6%< 1%91%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%87%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6643%8%91%21%5%89%54%8%94%44%8%92%< 1%< 1%-6%2.1%84%91%3.9%94%2.6%1.0%82%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%79%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6551%8%85%27%6%82%62%8%88%52%8%87%< 1%< 1%-9%2.8%74%94%3.0%88%4.1%1.5%73%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%68%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6459%8%77%34%7%73%69%7%81%59%8%79%< 1%< 1%-12%3.7%62%95.8%2.2%80%6%2.0%59%< 1%< 1%-1.3%< 1%56%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6366%8%66%41%7%63%75%7%70%67%7%69%< 1%< 1%-17%4.7%49%97.4%1.5%70%9%2.8%45%< 1%< 1%-2.1%< 1%41%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6273%7%55%49%8%51%81%6%58%73%7%58%< 1%< 1%-22%6%37%98.4%1.0%59%13%3.6%31%< 1%< 1%42%3.4%1.2%28%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6180%6%44%56%8%40%86%4.9%44%79%6%46%< 1%< 1%-29%7%26%99.08%< 1%49%17%4.5%20%< 1%< 1%23%5%1.8%18%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6085%5%34%64%7%31%90%3.9%31%84%5%35%< 1%< 1%-36%7%17%99.49%< 1%39%23%6%12%< 1%< 1%18%8%2.5%11%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
5989%4.3%25%71%7%24%93%3.1%20%88%4.1%25%< 1%< 1%-44%8%11%99.73%< 1%33%29%6%6%< 1%< 1%11%11%3.3%6%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
5892%3.4%20%77%6%19%95.3%2.3%11%92%3.3%19%< 1%< 1%21%52%8%8%99.87%< 1%29%36%7%2.8%< 1%< 1%7%15%4.3%4.1%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
5795%2.5%17%82%5%15%96.9%1.7%6%94%2.5%15%< 1%< 1%20%60%8%6%99.94%< 1%25%44%8%1.2%< 1%< 1%6%20%5%2.9%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
5696.7%1.8%15%87%4.6%14%98.1%1.2%3%96.2%1.9%12%< 1%< 1%19%67%7%5%99.97%< 1%25%51%8%< 1%1.3%< 1%5%27%6%2.5%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%3%
5598.0%1.2%14%91%3.7%13%98.9%< 1%1%97.5%1.4%11%< 1%< 1%18%74%7%4.9%99.99%< 1%20%59%8%< 1%2.1%< 1%5%34%7%2.4%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%3%
5498.8%< 1%13%93%2.9%12%99.36%< 1%< 1%98.4%< 1%11%< 1%< 1%19%80%6%4.9%>99.99%< 1%-67%8%< 1%3.2%1.2%5%42%8%2.3%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%2%
5399.31%< 1%13%95.6%2.2%12%99.66%< 1%< 1%99.05%< 1%12%< 1%< 1%17%85%5%4.7%>99.99%< 1%-74%7%< 1%5.0%1.7%4%50%8%2.3%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%2%
5299.62%< 1%12%97.2%1.6%12%99.83%< 1%< 1%99.44%< 1%11%1.1%< 1%18%89%4.1%5%>99.99%< 1%-80%6%< 1%7%2.3%5%58%8%2.3%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%1%
5199.81%< 1%13%98.2%1.1%12%99.92%< 1%< 1%99.69%< 1%10%1.9%< 1%18%93%3.2%5%>99.99%< 1%-85%5%< 1%10%3.1%5%66%8%2.4%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%1%
5099.91%< 1%12%99.0%< 1%13%99.96%< 1%< 1%99.83%< 1%11%2.9%1.1%17%95.1%2.4%5%>99.99%< 1%-89%4.2%< 1%14%4.0%5%73%7%2.4%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%2%
4999.96%< 1%14%99.41%< 1%12%99.98%< 1%< 1%99.91%< 1%12%4.5%1.6%18%96.8%1.7%5%100%< 1%-93%3.3%< 1%19%4.8%4.6%80%7%2.3%< 1%< 1%-1.5%< 1%1%
4899.98%< 1%11%99.68%< 1%11%>99.99%< 1%< 1%99.95%< 1%12%7%2.2%17%98.0%1.2%5%100%< 1%-95.2%2.5%< 1%25%6%4.5%85%5%2.4%< 1%< 1%-2.4%< 1%2%
47>99.99%< 1%10%99.83%< 1%13%>99.99%< 1%-99.98%< 1%9%10%2.9%17%98.8%< 1%5%100%< 1%-97.0%1.8%< 1%32%7%4.3%90%4.5%2.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%3.8%1.3%2%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Brighton vs Fulham (2.8%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Brighton74%63%56%
Fulham7%9%16%



BrightonNewcastleChelseaTottenhamLiverpoolBrentfordFulhamMan UnitedAston Villa
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
6434%7%94%69%7%98.7%12%3.7%88%59%8%95.1%59%8%96.2%6%2.0%86%1.3%< 1%84%95.8%2.2%98%< 1%< 1%86%
6341%7%90%75%7%97.1%17%4.7%80%66%8%91%67%7%93%9%2.8%78%2.1%< 1%75%97.4%1.5%95%< 1%< 1%77%
6249%8%84%81%6%95%22%6%71%73%7%85%73%7%88%13%3.6%66%3.4%1.2%62%98.4%1.0%92%< 1%< 1%64%
6156%8%76%86%4.9%91%29%7%60%80%6%78%79%6%81%17%4.5%54%5%1.8%50%99.08%< 1%88%1.4%< 1%52%
6064%7%67%90%3.9%86%36%7%48%85%5%68%84%5%71%23%6%42%8%2.5%37%99.49%< 1%84%2.2%< 1%36%
5971%7%56%93%3.1%79%44%8%37%89%4.3%56%88%4.1%60%29%6%30%11%3.3%26%99.73%< 1%77%3.5%1.2%24%
5877%6%45%95.3%2.3%72%52%8%27%92%3.4%45%92%3.3%47%36%7%20%15%4.3%17%99.87%< 1%73%5%1.8%15%
5782%5%35%96.9%1.7%65%60%8%19%95%2.5%35%94%2.5%36%44%8%12%20%5%10%99.94%< 1%68%8%2.5%8%
5687%4.6%27%98.1%1.2%58%67%7%13%96.7%1.8%27%96.2%1.9%26%51%8%7%27%6%7%99.97%< 1%65%11%3.2%4%
5591%3.7%21%98.9%< 1%54%74%7%10%98.0%1.2%22%97.5%1.4%19%59%8%3.9%34%7%4.5%99.99%< 1%59%15%4.1%1.7%
5493%2.9%16%99.36%< 1%51%80%6%7%98.8%< 1%17%98.4%< 1%15%67%8%1.9%42%8%3.3%>99.99%< 1%-20%5%< 1%
5395.6%2.2%14%99.66%< 1%49%85%5%6%99.31%< 1%15%99.05%< 1%14%74%7%< 1%50%8%2.7%>99.99%< 1%-26%6%< 1%
5297.2%1.6%13%99.83%< 1%49%89%4.1%5%99.62%< 1%13%99.44%< 1%11%80%6%< 1%58%8%2.4%>99.99%< 1%-33%7%< 1%
5198.2%1.1%12%99.92%< 1%52%93%3.2%5%99.81%< 1%14%99.69%< 1%11%85%5%< 1%66%8%2.4%>99.99%< 1%-40%7%< 1%
5099.0%< 1%13%99.96%< 1%49%95.1%2.4%5%99.91%< 1%12%99.83%< 1%11%89%4.2%< 1%73%7%2.4%>99.99%< 1%-48%8%< 1%
4999.41%< 1%13%99.98%< 1%52%96.8%1.7%5%99.96%< 1%14%99.91%< 1%12%93%3.3%< 1%80%7%2.3%100%< 1%-56%8%< 1%
4899.68%< 1%11%>99.99%< 1%45%98.0%1.2%5%99.98%< 1%11%99.95%< 1%12%95.2%2.5%< 1%85%5%2.4%100%< 1%-63%8%< 1%
4799.83%< 1%13%>99.99%< 1%-98.8%< 1%5%>99.99%< 1%10%99.98%< 1%9%97.0%1.8%< 1%90%4.5%2.2%100%< 1%-70%7%< 1%
4699.92%< 1%14%>99.99%< 1%-99.34%< 1%5%>99.99%< 1%-99.99%< 1%9%98.2%1.2%< 1%93%3.5%2.2%100%< 1%-77%7%< 1%
4599.97%< 1%12%>99.99%< 1%-99.64%< 1%4%>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-99.0%< 1%< 1%95.8%2.5%2.3%100%< 1%-83%6%< 1%
4499.98%< 1%13%100%< 1%-99.82%< 1%5%>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-99.43%< 1%< 1%97.5%1.7%2%100%< 1%-87%4.8%< 1%
43>99.99%< 1%-100%< 1%-99.91%< 1%5%>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-99.71%< 1%< 1%98.6%1.1%2%100%< 1%-91%3.8%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for avoiding relegation
Everton vs Leeds (7%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Everton55%39%30%
Leeds62%72%84%
Wolves vs Bournemouth (4.6%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Bournemouth20%26%40%
Wolves93%86%80%



SouthamptonBournemouthEvertonLeedsForestWest HamWolvesLeicesterCrystal Palace
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
49< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.5%< 1%100%2.6%< 1%100%4.5%1.6%100%6%2.2%100%19%4.8%100%24%6%100%
48< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%2.4%< 1%100%4.0%1.4%100%7%2.2%100%9%2.9%100%25%6%100%31%7%100%
47< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%3.8%1.3%100%6%2.0%100%10%2.9%100%13%3.7%100%32%7%100%38%7%100%
46< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.2%< 1%100%6%1.9%100%9%2.7%100%13%3.8%100%18%4.8%100%39%7%100%46%8%100%
45< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%2.0%< 1%100%8%2.6%100%12%3.6%100%18%4.6%100%24%6%100%47%8%100%54%8%100%
44< 1%< 1%100%1.3%< 1%100%3.2%1.2%100%12%3.4%>99.99%17%4.6%100%24%6%100%30%7%100%55%8%100%62%8%100%
43< 1%< 1%100%2.1%< 1%99.9%4.8%1.6%>99.99%16%4.3%100%22%6%>99.99%30%6%>99.99%38%7%>99.99%62%8%100%69%7%>99.99%
42< 1%< 1%99.9%3.3%1.2%99.9%7%2.3%99.9%21%5%99.98%29%7%99.94%37%7%>99.99%45%8%99.98%70%7%>99.99%76%7%>99.99%
411.5%< 1%99.7%5%1.7%99.4%10%3.1%99.7%27%6%99.9%37%8%99.7%45%8%99.94%54%8%99.9%77%7%99.96%82%6%99.9%
402.5%< 1%98%7%2.3%98%14%4.0%98.8%34%7%99.5%45%8%99.0%53%8%99.7%62%8%99.4%82%6%99.8%87%5.0%99.6%
393.8%1.4%94%11%3.2%93%19%4.9%96.2%42%8%98.1%53%8%96.7%61%8%98.8%69%8%97.9%87%4.9%99.0%91%4.0%98.2%
386%2.0%85%15%4.1%84%25%6%90%50%8%94%61%8%92%68%8%96.2%76%7%94%91%3.9%96.7%94%3.0%95%
379%2.7%72%20%5.0%70%32%7%80%58%8%87%69%8%82%75%7%90%82%6%86%94%3.0%91%96.1%2.2%87%
3612%3.5%54%26%6%52%39%8%65%66%8%75%77%7%67%81%6%80%87%5%74%96.3%2.2%80%97.7%1.6%74%
3517%4.6%36%33%7%35%48%8%47%73%7%59%83%6%50%86%5%65%91%4.0%57%97.8%1.5%64%98.7%1.0%55%
3422%6%20%40%8%20%56%8%30%79%6%41%88%5%33%90%4.2%48%94%3.0%39%98.7%< 1%46%99.29%< 1%36%
3329%7%10%49%8%10%64%8%17%85%6%26%92%4.0%19%93%3.2%31%96.5%2.1%24%99.32%< 1%28%99.64%< 1%20%
3236%8%3.9%57%8%4.1%72%8%8%89%4.4%14%95.3%3.0%9%95.8%2.3%17%98.0%1.5%12%99.66%< 1%15%99.83%< 1%10%
3144%8%1.4%65%8%1.4%78%7%3.5%93%3.5%7%97.3%2.0%4%97.4%1.6%8%98.9%< 1%5%99.84%< 1%6%99.93%< 1%4%
3053%8%< 1%73%8%< 1%84%6%1.2%95.4%2.6%3%98.6%1.3%1%98.5%1.1%3%99.46%< 1%2%99.93%< 1%3%99.97%< 1%1%
2961%9%< 1%80%7%< 1%89%4.9%< 1%97.2%1.8%1.1%99.34%< 1%< 1%99.18%< 1%1%99.75%< 1%< 1%99.97%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%2%
2869%8%< 1%86%6%< 1%93%3.7%< 1%98.4%1.2%< 1%99.73%< 1%< 1%99.58%< 1%< 1%99.90%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points




EuropeEL (or CL)CL
Fourth team100%100%99.81%
Fifth team>99.99%99.99%4.2%
FA cup winners100%100%64%
League cup winners100%88%64%
Sixth team98.0%77%3.6%
Seventh team80%13%2.9%
Eighth team16%6%2.3%


Simulated points for winner: 83 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Aston Villa30%24%47%Arsenal
Chelsea72%16%11%Southampton
Everton44%24%32%Leeds
Forest14%18%68%Man City
Wolves56%22%22%Bournemouth
Brighton61%20%19%Fulham
Brentford53%23%24%Crystal Palace
Newcastle37%24%39%Liverpool
Man United63%20%18%Leicester
Tottenham61%20%18%West Ham



 

 

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