PL: Man City closing in the gap to Arenal

 City are now 1.5 points behind in the average simulation with the chance to take the lead on Wednesday. If they win at Emirates, they 61% whereas if they lose 28%.

Hot Teams
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 5.2 more than expected
Forest: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 more than expected
Brentford: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 more than expected
Brighton: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Fulham: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Liverpool: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 5.4 less than expected
Leeds: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Southampton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
Bournemouth: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
51	Arsenal	83.0	+43	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.86%	55%	< 1%	< 1%	99.89%
48	Man City	81.5	+54	< 1%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.94%	99.75%	44%	< 1%	< 1%	99.81%
46	Man United	71.9	+18	< 1%	99.16%	97.2%	93%	83%	1.1%	2.5%	13%	84%
41	Newcastle	66.0	+27	< 1%	92%	82%	65%	44%	< 1%	17%	35%	44%
39	Tottenham	64.6	+16	< 1%	86%	71%	51%	28%	< 1%	14%	40%	32%
29	Liverpool	64.1	+23	< 1%	85%	70%	50%	28%	< 1%	15%	33%	36%
35	Brighton	61.3	+15	< 1%	68%	46%	27%	13%	< 1%	19%	38%	12%
31	Chelsea	57.7	+8	< 1%	36%	19%	9%	3.1%	< 1%	16%	14%	8%
34	Brentford	55.7	+5	< 1%	23%	11%	4.5%	1.5%	< 1%	11%	8%	1.5%
35	Fulham	52.6	-3	< 1%	7%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	4.5%	< 1%
28	Aston Villa	49.3	-10	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Crystal Palace	45.0	-14	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Leicester	44.2	-6	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.6%	< 1%
23	Wolves	41.0	-21	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	West Ham	39.9	-12	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	< 1%
24	Forest	39.0	-32	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Leeds	37.6	-17	29%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%
18	Everton	34.7	-24	54%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Bournemouth	32.5	-38	75%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Southampton	30.0	-34	87%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Arsenal	65%	12%
Man City	77%	32%	5.0%		20%	5.0%
Man United	64%	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	49%	< 1%
Tottenham	15%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	11%	< 1%
Brighton	12%	< 1%			< 1%
Chelsea	4.7%	< 1%
Brentford	< 1%
Fulham	2.3%
Leicester	4.6%
West Ham	18%	< 1%
Leeds	1.6%
Southampton	1.7%

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Man City (12.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	28%	44%	61%
Arsenal	71%	54%	37%
Aston Villa vs Arsenal (3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	46%	52%	62%
Man City	52%	47%	37%
Forest vs Man City (2.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	32%	37%	48%
Arsenal	66%	62%	51%

	Arsenal			Man City			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
94	1.5%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-
93	2.5%	1.0%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	4.1%	1.6%	99.7%	1.2%	< 1%	99.5%	< 1%	< 1%	-
91	6%	2.3%	98.8%	2.5%	1.2%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	9%	3.1%	97.8%	4.0%	1.5%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-
89	14%	4.2%	96%	7%	2.7%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-
88	19%	5.0%	92%	10%	3.5%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	73%
87	25%	6%	88%	15%	4.5%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	65%
86	31%	7%	82%	21%	6%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	53%
85	39%	7%	75%	27%	7%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	44%
84	47%	8%	66%	35%	7%	63%	< 1%	< 1%	34%
83	55%	8%	57%	43%	8%	54%	1.2%	< 1%	25%
82	62%	8%	47%	51%	8%	45%	2.1%	< 1%	16%
81	70%	7%	38%	59%	8%	36%	3.5%	1.5%	11%
80	76%	7%	29%	67%	8%	28%	6%	2.1%	7%
79	82%	6%	22%	74%	7%	20%	8%	2.8%	4%
78	87%	4.7%	15%	80%	6%	14%	12%	3.9%	2.1%
77	90%	3.8%	10%	85%	5%	9%	17%	4.9%	1.0%
76	93%	2.9%	6%	89%	4.1%	6%	23%	6%	< 1%
75	95.5%	2.2%	4%	92%	3.3%	3.3%	30%	7%	< 1%
74	97.1%	1.6%	2%	95%	2.5%	1.8%	37%	8%	< 1%
73	98.2%	1.1%	1.0%	96.5%	1.8%	< 1%	45%	8%	< 1%
72	98.9%	< 1%	< 1%	97.8%	1.3%	< 1%	54%	8%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Newcastle vs Liverpool (6.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Newcastle	57%	42%	32%
Liverpool	26%	34%	47%

	Man United			Newcastle			Liverpool			Tottenham			Brighton			Chelsea			Brentford
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
78	12%	3.9%	>99.99%	1.2%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	17%	4.9%	99.99%	1.9%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	23%	6%	99.98%	3.1%	1.2%	99.9%	1.0%	< 1%	99.9%	1.1%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	30%	7%	99.9%	4.8%	1.7%	99.8%	1.8%	< 1%	99.5%	1.9%	< 1%	99.4%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	37%	8%	99.7%	7%	2.4%	99.2%	3.0%	1.2%	98.9%	3.3%	1.4%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	99%
73	45%	8%	99.1%	10%	3.2%	98.2%	4.8%	1.9%	97%	5%	1.9%	96%	1.5%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	96%
72	54%	8%	97.8%	14%	4.0%	96%	7%	2.5%	94%	8%	2.6%	93%	2.4%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	93%
71	62%	8%	95.1%	19%	4.8%	92%	11%	3.3%	90%	11%	3.6%	87%	3.8%	1.4%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	86%
70	69%	8%	90%	25%	6%	85%	15%	4.3%	83%	16%	4.5%	78%	6%	1.9%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	77%
69	76%	7%	83%	32%	7%	76%	20%	5%	73%	21%	5%	68%	8%	2.6%	63%	1.3%	< 1%	66%	< 1%	< 1%	64%
68	82%	6%	72%	39%	7%	65%	26%	6%	62%	28%	7%	55%	12%	3.4%	49%	2.3%	< 1%	53%	< 1%	< 1%	48%
67	87%	4.9%	59%	46%	8%	51%	33%	7%	50%	35%	7%	41%	16%	4.3%	35%	3.6%	1.3%	38%	1.6%	< 1%	35%
66	91%	3.9%	44%	54%	8%	37%	40%	7%	38%	43%	8%	29%	21%	5%	23%	6%	2.1%	26%	2.7%	1.0%	21%
65	94%	3.0%	32%	62%	8%	24%	48%	8%	27%	51%	8%	19%	27%	6%	13%	8%	2.8%	16%	4.1%	1.5%	12%
64	95.8%	2.2%	22%	69%	7%	15%	55%	8%	20%	59%	8%	12%	34%	7%	7%	12%	3.7%	10%	6%	2.1%	5%
63	97.4%	1.5%	15%	75%	7%	8%	63%	7%	15%	67%	8%	8%	41%	7%	3.0%	17%	4.7%	7%	9%	2.8%	2.3%
62	98.4%	1.0%	12%	81%	6%	3.5%	70%	7%	13%	74%	7%	6%	49%	8%	1.1%	22%	6%	5%	13%	3.6%	< 1%
61	99.08%	< 1%	11%	86%	4.9%	1.3%	76%	6%	11%	80%	6%	5%	56%	8%	< 1%	29%	6%	5%	17%	4.5%	< 1%
60	99.50%	< 1%	10%	90%	3.9%	< 1%	81%	5%	11%	85%	5%	4.5%	64%	7%	< 1%	36%	7%	4.8%	23%	6%	< 1%
59	99.74%	< 1%	9%	93%	3.1%	< 1%	86%	4.7%	11%	89%	4.3%	4.5%	71%	7%	< 1%	44%	8%	4.8%	29%	6%	< 1%
58	99.87%	< 1%	8%	95.3%	2.3%	< 1%	90%	3.7%	11%	92%	3.3%	4%	77%	6%	< 1%	52%	8%	4.8%	36%	7%	< 1%
57	99.94%	< 1%	10%	97.0%	1.7%	< 1%	93%	2.9%	11%	95%	2.5%	4%	82%	5%	< 1%	60%	8%	4.7%	44%	8%	< 1%
56	99.97%	< 1%	10%	98.1%	1.2%	< 1%	95%	2.2%	11%	96.7%	1.8%	4%	87%	4.6%	< 1%	67%	7%	4.7%	51%	8%	< 1%
55	>99.99%	< 1%	6%	98.9%	< 1%	< 1%	96.6%	1.6%	11%	97.9%	1.2%	4%	91%	3.7%	< 1%	74%	7%	4.7%	59%	8%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Liverpool (4.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Newcastle	87%	78%	70%
Liverpool	60%	68%	79%
Brighton vs Fulham (2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brighton	56%	45%	39%
Fulham	3.7%	4.9%	8%

	Tottenham			Brighton			Newcastle			Liverpool			West Ham			Chelsea			Man United			Brentford			Leicester			Fulham			Southampton			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
69	21%	5%	98.9%	8%	2.6%	98.4%	32%	7%	99.4%	20%	5%	99.1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.3%	< 1%	98%	76%	7%	99.5%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	28%	7%	97.5%	12%	3.4%	97.2%	39%	7%	98.5%	26%	6%	98.2%	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.3%	< 1%	96%	82%	6%	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	35%	7%	95.0%	16%	4.3%	94%	46%	8%	97.0%	33%	7%	96.2%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.6%	1.3%	92%	87%	4.9%	97.1%	1.6%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	43%	8%	92%	21%	5%	90%	54%	8%	94%	40%	7%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	2.1%	85%	91%	3.9%	94%	2.7%	1.0%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	51%	8%	86%	27%	6%	84%	62%	8%	89%	48%	8%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	-	8%	2.8%	76%	94%	3.0%	89%	4.1%	1.5%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	59%	8%	78%	34%	7%	75%	69%	7%	82%	55%	8%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	-	12%	3.7%	64%	95.8%	2.2%	81%	6%	2.1%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.3%	< 1%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	67%	8%	68%	41%	7%	64%	75%	7%	71%	63%	7%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	-	17%	4.7%	51%	97.4%	1.5%	71%	9%	2.8%	47%	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.1%	< 1%	43%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	74%	7%	57%	49%	8%	53%	81%	6%	59%	70%	7%	59%	< 1%	< 1%	-	22%	6%	38%	98.4%	1.0%	60%	13%	3.6%	33%	< 1%	< 1%	42%	3.4%	1.2%	30%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	80%	6%	46%	56%	8%	42%	86%	4.9%	46%	76%	6%	47%	< 1%	< 1%	-	29%	6%	27%	99.08%	< 1%	49%	17%	4.5%	22%	< 1%	< 1%	28%	5%	1.8%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	85%	5%	36%	64%	7%	32%	90%	3.9%	32%	81%	5%	36%	< 1%	< 1%	-	36%	7%	18%	99.50%	< 1%	39%	23%	6%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	8%	2.5%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	89%	4.3%	28%	71%	7%	25%	93%	3.1%	21%	86%	4.7%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	-	44%	8%	12%	99.74%	< 1%	33%	29%	6%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	11%	3.3%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	92%	3.3%	22%	77%	6%	19%	95.3%	2.3%	12%	90%	3.7%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	30%	52%	8%	9%	99.87%	< 1%	27%	36%	7%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	15%	4.3%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
57	95%	2.5%	18%	82%	5%	16%	97.0%	1.7%	7%	93%	2.9%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	60%	8%	7%	99.94%	< 1%	26%	44%	8%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	20%	5%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
56	96.7%	1.8%	17%	87%	4.6%	14%	98.1%	1.2%	3%	95%	2.2%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	67%	7%	6%	99.97%	< 1%	25%	51%	8%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	5%	27%	6%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
55	97.9%	1.2%	16%	91%	3.7%	13%	98.9%	< 1%	1%	96.6%	1.6%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	74%	7%	5.0%	>99.99%	< 1%	17%	59%	8%	< 1%	2.0%	< 1%	5%	34%	7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	2%
54	98.8%	< 1%	14%	93%	2.9%	13%	99.37%	< 1%	< 1%	97.8%	1.2%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	80%	6%	4.9%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	67%	8%	< 1%	3.2%	1.2%	4%	42%	8%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	2%
53	99.31%	< 1%	14%	95.6%	2.2%	12%	99.66%	< 1%	< 1%	98.6%	< 1%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	85%	5%	4.8%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	74%	7%	< 1%	4.9%	1.7%	4%	50%	8%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	2%
52	99.62%	< 1%	15%	97.2%	1.6%	12%	99.83%	< 1%	< 1%	99.15%	< 1%	11%	1.1%	< 1%	18%	89%	4.1%	5%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	80%	6%	< 1%	7%	2.3%	5%	58%	8%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	2%
51	99.80%	< 1%	15%	98.2%	1.1%	12%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	99.50%	< 1%	12%	1.9%	< 1%	18%	93%	3.3%	5%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	85%	5%	< 1%	10%	3.1%	5%	66%	8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	2%
50	99.91%	< 1%	17%	99.0%	< 1%	12%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	99.72%	< 1%	11%	2.9%	1.1%	17%	95.1%	2.4%	5%	100%	< 1%	-	89%	4.2%	< 1%	14%	4.0%	5%	73%	7%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	2%
49	99.96%	< 1%	15%	99.40%	< 1%	12%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	99.84%	< 1%	10%	4.5%	1.6%	18%	96.8%	1.7%	5%	100%	< 1%	-	93%	3.3%	< 1%	19%	4.9%	4.5%	80%	7%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.5%	< 1%	2%
48	99.98%	< 1%	13%	99.67%	< 1%	12%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	99.91%	< 1%	11%	7%	2.1%	18%	98.0%	1.2%	5%	100%	< 1%	-	95.2%	2.5%	< 1%	25%	6%	4.6%	85%	6%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	2.5%	< 1%	2%
47	>99.99%	< 1%	17%	99.83%	< 1%	13%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.95%	< 1%	11%	10%	2.9%	18%	98.8%	< 1%	5%	100%	< 1%	-	97.0%	1.8%	< 1%	32%	7%	4.5%	90%	4.5%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	3.8%	1.4%	2%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Brighton vs Fulham (2.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brighton	75%	64%	57%
Fulham	7%	10%	16%
Newcastle vs Liverpool (2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	79%	83%	90%
Newcastle	97.5%	95.1%	93%

	Brighton			Newcastle			Chelsea			Liverpool			Tottenham			Brentford			Fulham			Man United			Aston Villa
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
64	34%	7%	94%	69%	7%	98.7%	12%	3.7%	88%	55%	8%	96.5%	59%	8%	95.6%	6%	2.1%	86%	1.3%	< 1%	84%	95.8%	2.2%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	89%
63	41%	7%	91%	75%	7%	97.3%	17%	4.7%	82%	63%	7%	93%	67%	8%	92%	9%	2.8%	78%	2.1%	< 1%	76%	97.4%	1.5%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	79%
62	49%	8%	85%	81%	6%	95%	22%	6%	72%	70%	7%	89%	74%	7%	86%	13%	3.6%	68%	3.4%	1.2%	64%	98.4%	1.0%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	65%
61	56%	8%	77%	86%	4.9%	91%	29%	6%	61%	76%	6%	81%	80%	6%	79%	17%	4.5%	57%	5%	1.8%	51%	99.08%	< 1%	88%	1.4%	< 1%	53%
60	64%	7%	68%	90%	3.9%	86%	36%	7%	50%	81%	5%	72%	85%	5%	70%	23%	6%	43%	8%	2.5%	38%	99.50%	< 1%	84%	2.2%	< 1%	38%
59	71%	7%	57%	93%	3.1%	79%	44%	8%	38%	86%	4.7%	61%	89%	4.3%	58%	29%	6%	31%	11%	3.3%	27%	99.74%	< 1%	78%	3.5%	1.3%	26%
58	77%	6%	46%	95.3%	2.3%	72%	52%	8%	28%	90%	3.7%	49%	92%	3.3%	47%	36%	7%	21%	15%	4.3%	18%	99.87%	< 1%	73%	5%	1.8%	16%
57	82%	5%	36%	97.0%	1.7%	66%	60%	8%	20%	93%	2.9%	37%	95%	2.5%	37%	44%	8%	13%	20%	5%	11%	99.94%	< 1%	71%	8%	2.5%	9%
56	87%	4.6%	28%	98.1%	1.2%	59%	67%	7%	14%	95%	2.2%	27%	96.7%	1.8%	29%	51%	8%	8%	27%	6%	7%	99.97%	< 1%	71%	11%	3.2%	4%
55	91%	3.7%	21%	98.9%	< 1%	55%	74%	7%	10%	96.6%	1.6%	20%	97.9%	1.2%	23%	59%	8%	4.2%	34%	7%	4.6%	>99.99%	< 1%	69%	15%	4.1%	2.1%
54	93%	2.9%	17%	99.37%	< 1%	52%	80%	6%	8%	97.8%	1.2%	16%	98.8%	< 1%	18%	67%	8%	2.1%	42%	8%	3.4%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	20%	5%	< 1%
53	95.6%	2.2%	15%	99.66%	< 1%	50%	85%	5%	6%	98.6%	< 1%	13%	99.31%	< 1%	16%	74%	7%	< 1%	50%	8%	2.9%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	26%	6%	< 1%
52	97.2%	1.6%	13%	99.83%	< 1%	48%	89%	4.1%	5%	99.15%	< 1%	11%	99.62%	< 1%	16%	80%	6%	< 1%	58%	8%	2.4%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	33%	7%	< 1%
51	98.2%	1.1%	12%	99.92%	< 1%	51%	93%	3.3%	5%	99.50%	< 1%	12%	99.80%	< 1%	16%	85%	5%	< 1%	66%	8%	2.3%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	40%	7%	< 1%
50	99.0%	< 1%	12%	99.96%	< 1%	47%	95.1%	2.4%	5%	99.72%	< 1%	11%	99.91%	< 1%	17%	89%	4.2%	< 1%	73%	7%	2.3%	100%	< 1%	-	48%	8%	< 1%
49	99.40%	< 1%	12%	99.98%	< 1%	50%	96.8%	1.7%	5%	99.84%	< 1%	10%	99.96%	< 1%	15%	93%	3.3%	< 1%	80%	7%	2.3%	100%	< 1%	-	56%	8%	< 1%
48	99.67%	< 1%	12%	>99.99%	< 1%	47%	98.0%	1.2%	5%	99.91%	< 1%	11%	99.98%	< 1%	13%	95.2%	2.5%	< 1%	85%	6%	2.3%	100%	< 1%	-	63%	8%	< 1%
47	99.83%	< 1%	13%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	98.8%	< 1%	5%	99.95%	< 1%	11%	>99.99%	< 1%	17%	97.0%	1.8%	< 1%	90%	4.5%	2.2%	100%	< 1%	-	70%	7%	< 1%
46	99.92%	< 1%	11%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.34%	< 1%	6%	99.98%	< 1%	11%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	98.2%	1.2%	< 1%	93%	3.4%	2.3%	100%	< 1%	-	77%	7%	< 1%
45	99.96%	< 1%	11%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.64%	< 1%	5%	99.99%	< 1%	11%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.0%	< 1%	< 1%	95.8%	2.5%	2.4%	100%	< 1%	-	83%	6%	< 1%
44	99.98%	< 1%	14%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.81%	< 1%	5%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.45%	< 1%	< 1%	97.5%	1.7%	2%	100%	< 1%	-	87%	4.7%	< 1%
43	>99.99%	< 1%	17%	100%	< 1%	-	99.91%	< 1%	4%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	99.72%	< 1%	< 1%	98.6%	1.1%	2%	100%	< 1%	-	91%	3.8%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Everton vs Leeds (6.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	58%	42%	32%
Leeds	62%	72%	84%
Wolves vs Bournemouth (4.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Bournemouth	19%	26%	40%
Wolves	93%	86%	79%

	Southampton			Bournemouth			Everton			Leeds			Forest			West Ham			Wolves			Leicester			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
49	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	2.6%	< 1%	100%	4.5%	1.6%	100%	7%	2.2%	100%	19%	4.9%	100%	24%	6%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.5%	< 1%	100%	3.9%	1.4%	100%	7%	2.1%	100%	9%	2.9%	100%	25%	6%	100%	31%	7%	100%
47	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	3.8%	1.4%	100%	6%	2.0%	100%	10%	2.9%	100%	13%	3.8%	100%	32%	7%	100%	38%	7%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.6%	< 1%	100%	6%	1.9%	100%	9%	2.7%	100%	13%	3.8%	100%	18%	4.7%	100%	39%	7%	100%	46%	8%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.6%	< 1%	100%	8%	2.7%	100%	12%	3.6%	>99.99%	18%	4.6%	100%	24%	6%	100%	47%	8%	100%	54%	8%	100%
44	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	4.0%	1.4%	100%	12%	3.4%	100%	17%	4.6%	>99.99%	24%	6%	100%	30%	7%	>99.99%	55%	8%	100%	62%	8%	100%
43	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.1%	< 1%	99.9%	6%	1.9%	>99.99%	16%	4.3%	100%	22%	6%	99.99%	30%	6%	>99.99%	38%	7%	>99.99%	62%	8%	>99.99%	69%	7%	>99.99%
42	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	3.3%	1.2%	99.8%	9%	2.6%	99.9%	21%	5%	99.98%	29%	7%	99.95%	37%	7%	99.99%	45%	8%	99.97%	70%	7%	>99.99%	76%	7%	99.98%
41	1.6%	< 1%	99.6%	5%	1.7%	99.4%	12%	3.4%	99.7%	28%	6%	99.8%	36%	8%	99.7%	45%	8%	99.9%	53%	8%	99.9%	77%	7%	99.95%	82%	6%	99.9%
40	2.5%	< 1%	98%	7%	2.4%	97%	16%	4.3%	98.7%	34%	7%	99.3%	44%	8%	98.8%	53%	8%	99.7%	62%	8%	99.3%	82%	6%	99.8%	87%	5.0%	99.5%
39	3.9%	1.4%	94%	11%	3.1%	93%	22%	5%	96.0%	42%	8%	97.9%	53%	8%	96.3%	61%	8%	98.7%	69%	8%	97.8%	87%	4.9%	99.0%	91%	4.0%	98.2%
38	6%	2.0%	85%	15%	4.1%	83%	28%	6%	90%	50%	8%	94%	61%	8%	91%	68%	8%	95.9%	76%	7%	94%	91%	3.9%	96.6%	94%	3.0%	95%
37	9%	2.7%	70%	20%	5%	69%	35%	7%	79%	58%	8%	86%	69%	8%	81%	75%	7%	90%	82%	6%	85%	94%	2.9%	90%	96.1%	2.2%	86%
36	12%	3.6%	53%	26%	6%	51%	43%	8%	64%	66%	8%	74%	77%	7%	66%	81%	6%	79%	87%	5%	72%	96.3%	2.2%	80%	97.7%	1.5%	73%
35	17%	4.6%	34%	33%	7%	33%	51%	8%	46%	73%	7%	57%	83%	6%	49%	86%	5%	64%	91%	4.0%	56%	97.7%	1.5%	64%	98.7%	1.0%	54%
34	22%	6%	19%	40%	8%	19%	59%	8%	29%	79%	6%	40%	88%	5%	32%	90%	4.2%	46%	94%	3.0%	38%	98.7%	< 1%	44%	99.28%	< 1%	35%
33	29%	7%	9%	49%	8%	9%	67%	8%	16%	85%	6%	24%	92%	4.0%	18%	94%	3.2%	30%	96.5%	2.2%	23%	99.32%	< 1%	27%	99.64%	< 1%	19%
32	36%	7%	3.7%	57%	8%	3.8%	74%	7%	8%	89%	4.5%	13%	95.3%	3.0%	9%	95.8%	2.3%	16%	97.9%	1.4%	12%	99.66%	< 1%	14%	99.83%	< 1%	10%
31	44%	8%	1.2%	65%	8%	1.3%	80%	6%	3.2%	93%	3.5%	6%	97.3%	2.0%	4%	97.5%	1.6%	8%	98.9%	< 1%	5%	99.84%	< 1%	6%	99.93%	< 1%	5%
30	53%	8%	< 1%	73%	8%	< 1%	86%	5%	1.2%	95.5%	2.6%	2.4%	98.6%	1.3%	1%	98.5%	1.1%	3%	99.43%	< 1%	2%	99.93%	< 1%	2%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%
29	61%	8%	< 1%	80%	7%	< 1%	90%	4.4%	< 1%	97.2%	1.8%	< 1%	99.32%	< 1%	< 1%	99.21%	< 1%	1%	99.74%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%
28	69%	8%	< 1%	86%	6%	< 1%	94%	3.4%	< 1%	98.4%	1.2%	< 1%	99.72%	< 1%	< 1%	99.60%	< 1%	< 1%	99.89%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.80%
Fifth team	>99.99%	99.99%	4.6%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	64%
League cup winners	100%	88%	65%
Sixth team	98.1%	77%	4.0%
Seventh team	80%	14%	3.3%
Eighth team	17%	6%	2.5%

Simulated points for winner: 83 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Liverpool	79%	13%	8%	Everton
Arsenal	40%	24%	36%	Man City
Aston Villa	30%	24%	47%	Arsenal
Chelsea	72%	16%	11%	Southampton
Everton	44%	24%	32%	Leeds
Forest	14%	18%	68%	Man City
Wolves	56%	22%	22%	Bournemouth
Brighton	61%	20%	19%	Fulham
Brentford	53%	22%	24%	Crystal Palace
Newcastle	37%	24%	39%	Liverpool
Man United	63%	20%	17%	Leicester
Tottenham	61%	20%	18%	West Ham