Sunday, February 5, 2023

PL: Man U given hope in title race

Man United given hope (1%) in title race after Arsenal and City losses. Everton have after their win against Arsenal 45% chance for new contract. won the relegation game against Leeds and have 81% chance on new contract, while Leeds are down to 74%.

Hot Teams
Brentford: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 5.2 more than expected
Forest: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 more than expected
Tottenham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
Brighton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Wolves: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Liverpool: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 5.4 less than expected
Bournemouth: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Leeds: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Chelsea: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
50Arsenal84.2+45< 1%>99.99%>99.99%99.98%99.88%64%< 1%< 1%99.90%
45Man City80.9+54< 1%>99.99%99.97%99.87%99.48%35%< 1%< 1%99.60%
42Man United71.7+18< 1%98.6%95.6%89%77%1.1%3.7%16%79%
40Newcastle66.8+27< 1%93%83%67%46%< 1%16%34%45%
39Tottenham66.0+19< 1%90%77%59%36%< 1%12%39%39%
29Liverpool64.1+23< 1%84%68%46%25%< 1%16%34%33%
34Brighton61.6+15< 1%68%45%26%12%< 1%19%38%12%
30Chelsea58.2+9< 1%38%20%9%3.4%< 1%17%14%8%
33Brentford55.3+4< 1%19%9%3.5%1.1%< 1%10%7%1.1%
32Fulham51.5-4< 1%4.9%1.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%3.3%3.7%< 1%
28Aston Villa49.7-9< 1%2.8%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.9%< 1%< 1%
24Crystal Palace45.5-132.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
21Leicester42.5-97%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%4.6%< 1%
19West Ham40.2-1215%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%18%< 1%
24Forest39.9-3119%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
20Wolves39.2-2322%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
18Leeds38.4-1726%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.6%< 1%
18Everton34.7-2455%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
17Bournemouth32.5-3975%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
15Southampton31.6-3279%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.7%< 1%


Titles
TeamOne TitleTwo titlesThree titlesFour titlesDoubleTripleQuadruple
Arsenal71%13%




Man City73%28%4.0%
16%4.0%
Man United64%14%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Newcastle49%< 1%




Tottenham15%< 1%< 1%
< 1%< 1%
Liverpool11%< 1%




Brighton12%< 1%

< 1%

Chelsea4.7%< 1%




Brentford< 1%





Fulham2.3%





Leicester4.6%





West Ham18%< 1%




Leeds1.6%





Southampton1.7%





Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Brentford (2.3%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Arsenal68%57%52%
Man City31%41%45%



ArsenalMan CityMan United
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
961.1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-
951.9%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
943.2%1.3%99.9%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-
935%1.8%99.8%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-
928%2.5%99.6%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-
9111%3.5%98.9%1.9%< 1%96%< 1%< 1%-
9015%4.2%98.0%3.2%1.3%94%< 1%< 1%-
8920%5%95.9%5%2.3%90%< 1%< 1%70%
8827%6%93%9%3.0%85%< 1%< 1%64%
8733%7%89%12%3.9%79%< 1%< 1%59%
8641%7%83%18%5%71%< 1%< 1%45%
8549%8%77%24%6%63%< 1%< 1%38%
8456%8%69%31%7%54%< 1%< 1%29%
8364%7%60%38%8%45%1.6%< 1%21%
8271%7%51%46%8%37%2.6%1.0%14%
8177%6%41%54%8%28%4.1%1.5%9%
8082%5%32%62%8%21%6%2.2%6%
7987%4.6%24%69%7%15%9%2.9%3%
7890%3.6%18%76%7%10%13%3.7%1.8%
7793%2.8%12%81%6%7%18%4.7%< 1%
7695.4%2.1%8%86%4.7%4.0%23%5%< 1%
7596.9%1.5%4%90%3.8%2.3%29%6%< 1%
7498.0%1.1%2%93%3.0%1.2%37%7%< 1%
7398.8%< 1%1%95.2%2.2%< 1%44%7%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for CL race
Bournemouth vs Newcastle (2.4%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Newcastle34%41%53%
Tottenham42%40%36%
Leicester vs Tottenham (2.3%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Tottenham30%36%48%
Newcastle48%46%42%
Man United81%80%77%



Man UnitedNewcastleTottenhamLiverpoolBrightonChelseaBrentford
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
799%2.9%>99.99%1.2%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7813%3.7%>99.99%2.1%< 1%99.9%1.00%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7718%4.7%99.98%3.2%1.2%99.9%1.8%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7623%5%99.9%4.9%1.7%99.8%2.9%1.1%99.6%1.0%< 1%99.7%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-
7529%6%99.7%7%2.4%99.4%4.6%1.7%98.9%1.8%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-
7437%7%99.2%10%3.0%98.5%7%2.4%97.6%3.0%1.2%98%1.3%< 1%97%< 1%< 1%97%< 1%< 1%98%
7344%7%98.0%14%3.8%96.7%10%3.1%95%4.9%1.9%96%2.1%< 1%93%< 1%< 1%95%< 1%< 1%95%
7252%8%95.8%19%4.7%94%14%4.0%91%7%2.5%91%3.2%1.2%88%< 1%< 1%91%< 1%< 1%89%
7159%8%92%24%5%89%19%5.0%84%11%3.3%85%4.9%1.6%79%< 1%< 1%82%< 1%< 1%80%
7066%7%85%31%6%81%25%6%75%15%4.3%77%7%2.2%69%1.2%< 1%71%< 1%< 1%71%
6973%7%76%37%7%70%31%7%64%20%5%66%10%2.9%55%2.0%< 1%59%< 1%< 1%57%
6879%6%64%45%7%57%39%7%51%26%6%54%14%3.7%42%3.3%1.3%44%< 1%< 1%41%
6784%5%51%52%7%44%46%8%38%33%7%42%18%4.5%28%5%1.8%31%1.6%< 1%28%
6688%4.2%37%60%7%31%54%8%27%40%7%31%24%5%17%8%2.4%20%2.5%< 1%16%
6592%3.3%27%67%7%19%62%8%18%48%8%23%30%6%9%11%3.3%13%3.9%1.4%9%
6494%2.6%19%73%7%11%69%7%11%55%8%17%36%7%4.8%15%4.1%8%6%1.9%4%
6396.2%1.9%14%79%6%6%75%7%8%63%7%14%44%7%2.0%20%5%6%8%2.5%1.4%
6297.5%1.4%12%84%5%2.3%81%6%6%70%7%12%51%7%< 1%26%6%5%12%3.3%< 1%
6198.4%< 1%10%88%4.2%< 1%86%4.8%5.0%76%6%11%58%7%< 1%33%7%4.8%16%4.1%< 1%
6099.07%< 1%10%92%3.4%< 1%90%3.9%5%81%5%11%65%7%< 1%40%7%4.8%21%5%< 1%
5999.46%< 1%10%94%2.6%< 1%93%3.1%4%86%4.6%11%72%7%< 1%48%8%4.7%27%6%< 1%
5899.69%< 1%9%96.2%1.9%< 1%95.2%2.3%5%90%3.8%11%78%6%< 1%55%8%4.6%33%7%< 1%
5799.83%< 1%9%97.5%1.4%< 1%96.9%1.7%4%93%3.0%11%83%5%< 1%63%8%4.8%41%7%< 1%
5699.91%< 1%11%98.5%< 1%< 1%98.0%1.2%4%95%2.3%11%87%4.3%< 1%70%7%4.6%48%8%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for avoiding relegation
Southampton vs Wolves (4.8%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Southampton29%17%12%
Wolves71%79%88%
Bournemouth vs Newcastle (2.1%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Bournemouth37%25%19%



SouthamptonBournemouthEvertonLeedsWolvesForestWest HamLeicesterCrystal Palace
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
51< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.2%< 1%100%1.4%< 1%100%1.8%< 1%100%2.5%< 1%100%6%2.0%100%17%4.3%100%
50< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.9%< 1%100%2.3%< 1%100%2.8%1.0%100%3.8%1.3%100%9%2.7%100%22%5%100%
49< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%2.9%1.0%100%3.5%1.3%100%4.2%1.4%100%6%1.9%100%12%3.4%100%28%6%100%
48< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%4.3%1.4%100%5%1.8%100%6%2.0%100%8%2.5%100%17%4.3%100%34%7%100%
47< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.0%< 1%100%6%2.0%100%8%2.4%100%9%2.7%100%11%3.2%100%22%5%100%42%7%100%
46< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.7%< 1%100%9%2.6%100%11%3.2%100%13%3.6%100%15%4.1%100%28%6%100%49%8%100%
45< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%2.6%< 1%100%12%3.4%100%15%4.0%100%17%4.5%100%20%4.9%100%35%7%100%57%8%100%
44< 1%< 1%100%1.5%< 1%100%4.0%1.4%100%16%4.2%100%20%4.9%>99.99%22%5%100%26%6%100%42%7%100%65%7%100%
431.5%< 1%99.9%2.5%< 1%99.9%6%1.9%99.99%21%5.0%>99.99%25%6%>99.99%29%6%99.99%33%6%>99.99%50%8%>99.99%72%7%>99.99%
422.4%< 1%99.8%3.7%1.3%99.9%9%2.6%99.9%27%6%99.98%32%7%99.96%36%7%99.94%40%7%99.98%57%8%99.99%78%6%99.98%
413.7%1.3%99.4%6%1.8%99.2%12%3.5%99.7%34%7%99.9%39%7%99.8%44%8%99.7%47%8%99.93%65%7%99.9%83%5%99.9%
406%1.8%98%8%2.5%97%16%4.3%98.6%41%7%99.4%47%8%99.1%52%8%98.8%55%8%99.6%72%7%99.6%88%4.6%99.4%
398%2.5%94%11%3.2%92%22%5%95.5%49%8%97.8%55%8%97.1%60%8%96.3%63%8%98.5%78%6%98.8%92%3.6%97.9%
3811%3.3%85%15%4.1%83%28%6%89%56%8%94%63%8%92%68%8%90%70%7%95.5%83%5%95.7%94%2.8%94%
3716%4.2%71%20%5%68%35%7%78%64%7%86%70%7%83%75%7%80%76%7%89%88%4.5%89%96.3%2.0%85%
3621%5%53%26%6%49%42%8%62%71%7%72%77%7%69%82%6%65%82%6%77%92%3.7%77%97.8%1.4%70%
3527%6%34%33%7%31%51%8%44%77%6%56%82%6%52%87%5%47%87%4.8%62%94%2.8%61%98.7%< 1%52%
3434%7%19%41%8%17%59%8%28%83%6%38%87%4.9%34%91%4.2%30%91%3.9%43%96.3%2.0%42%99.29%< 1%32%
3341%8%9%49%8%8%66%8%15%87%4.7%23%91%3.9%20%94%3.2%16%94%3.0%27%97.7%1.4%26%99.63%< 1%18%
3249%8%3.9%57%8%3.1%74%7%7%91%3.8%12%94%3.0%10%96.6%2.3%8%95.8%2.2%15%98.7%< 1%13%99.82%< 1%8%
3157%8%1.3%65%8%1.1%80%6%2.7%94%2.9%5%96.4%2.1%4%98.1%1.5%3%97.4%1.6%7%99.28%< 1%6%99.92%< 1%4%
3065%8%< 1%72%7%< 1%86%5%1.0%96.1%2.2%1.8%97.8%1.5%1.5%99.03%< 1%1%98.5%1.1%3%99.62%< 1%2%99.97%< 1%< 1%
2973%7%< 1%79%7%< 1%90%4.4%< 1%97.6%1.5%< 1%98.8%< 1%< 1%99.56%< 1%< 1%99.14%< 1%< 1%99.82%< 1%< 1%99.99%< 1%< 1%
2879%7%< 1%85%6%< 1%94%3.4%< 1%98.6%< 1%< 1%99.35%< 1%< 1%99.82%< 1%< 1%99.55%< 1%< 1%99.92%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points




EuropeEL (or CL)CL
Fourth team100%100%99.72%
Fifth team>99.99%99.98%4.8%
FA cup winners100%100%64%
League cup winners100%88%63%
Sixth team98.1%77%4.3%
Seventh team81%15%3.5%
Eighth team18%6%2.6%


Simulated points for winner: 83 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Man United66%19%15%Leeds
West Ham35%24%40%Chelsea
Arsenal67%18%14%Brentford
Leicester36%24%39%Tottenham
Southampton44%24%32%Wolves
Crystal Palace40%24%36%Brighton
Fulham56%22%22%Forest
Bournemouth26%23%51%Newcastle
Leeds32%24%44%Man United
Man City76%15%10%Aston Villa
Liverpool79%13%8%Everton



 

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