Playoff leg 1 - Europa League and ECL

Updated probabilities 

Europa League

Team	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Arsenal	100%	50%	39%	31%	21%
Man United	66%	48%	33%	22%	14%
Barcelona	34%	26%	19%	13%	8%
Sociedad	100%	50%	28%	15%	7%
Freiburg	100%	50%	27%	14%	6%
Betis	100%	50%	26%	13%	6%
Ajax	50%	30%	17%	9%	4%
Feyenoord	100%	50%	23%	10%	4%
Union Berlin	50%	28%	16%	8%	4%
Monaco	85%	41%	20%	8%	3%
Sevilla	93%	44%	21%	9%	3%
Juventus	56%	28%	15%	7%	3%
Sporting	59%	29%	15%	7%	3%
Salzburg	66%	32%	16%	7%	3%
Fenerbahce	100%	50%	18%	6%	2%
Roma	34%	18%	9%	4%	2%
Rennes	49%	23%	11%	5%	2%
St Gillis	100%	50%	17%	5%	2%
Leverkusen	15%	8%	4%	2%	< 1%
Shakhtar	51%	18%	7%	2%	< 1%
Ferencvaros	100%	50%	10%	2%	< 1%
Nantes	44%	13%	4%	1%	< 1%
PSV	7%	3%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Midtjylland	41%	11%	3%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Europa Conference League

Team	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Lazio	88%	69%	48%	33%	20%
Villarreal	100%	50%	38%	28%	18%
West Ham	100%	50%	37%	26%	16%
Fiorentina	99%	62%	36%	19%	9%
Nice	100%	50%	31%	18%	9%
Alkmaar	100%	50%	31%	18%	9%
Trabzonspor	75%	39%	19%	8%	3%
Karabakh Agdam	70%	36%	18%	7%	3%
Djurgarden	100%	50%	21%	7%	3%
Partizan	81%	38%	18%	7%	2%
Bodoe Glimt	53%	26%	13%	5%	2%
Razgrad	68%	29%	12%	4%	1%
Lech	47%	20%	9%	3%	< 1%
Sivasspor	100%	50%	15%	4%	< 1%
Gent	30%	14%	7%	3%	< 1%
Anderlecht	32%	13%	6%	2%	< 1%
Larnaca	67%	21%	7%	2%	< 1%
Basel	25%	10%	4%	1%	< 1%
Slovan Bratislava	100%	50%	10%	2%	< 1%
Dnipro	33%	11%	4%	1%	< 1%
Sheriff Tiraspol	19%	7%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Braga	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
CFR Cluj	12%	5%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Istanbulspor	100%	50%	8%	1%	< 1%