Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Euro: Bosnia & Herzegovina - Iceland in Group J

On Friday we have a couple of important matches. In Group J, Bosnia and Herzegovina host Iceland, while Slovakia play Luxembourg. In Group H, Kazakhstan host Slovenia and in Group C Italy play England in an early group final.

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Iceland (9.9%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Iceland14%27%46%
Bosnia and Herzegovina64%48%36%

Slovakia vs Luxembourg (3.8%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Slovakia35%21%14%
Luxembourg6%9%17%

Kazakhstan vs Slovenia (2.9%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Slovenia31%38%52%
Finland69%67%60%
Kazakhstan9%5%4.4%
Northern Ireland14%13%10%

Italy vs England (2.3%)Home WinDrawAway Win
England84%89%95.1%
Italy97.8%94%91%

 

 
Group C


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff		At least
Second		Group
Winner		Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Italy100%87%57%41617.9202414.4
England99.81%73%31%21416.1182410.7
Ukraine97.4%38%12%01213.716245.7
North Macedonia1.8%1.8%< 1%067.4922-7.7
Malta< 1%< 1%< 1%002316-23.2

 

Group H


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff		At least
Second		Group
Winner		Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Denmark100%98.2%89%102425.6283028.7
Finland99.80%51%6%41618.2213011.1
Slovenia71%38%3.9%31517.219309.1
Northern Ireland12%12%< 1%01214.116302.3
Kazakhstan100%1.7%< 1%0810.51227-6.2
San Marino< 1%< 1%< 1%000.6112-45

 

Group J


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff		At least
Second		Group
Winner		Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Portugal100%99.53%96.1%112526.4283029.1
Bosnia and Herzegovina100%42%2.0%21416.419305.3
Slovakia29%29%1.1%11315.318302.9
Iceland28%24%< 1%01214.717301.8
Luxembourg54%5%< 1%0911.21328-5.6
Liechtenstein< 1%< 1%< 1%001.7316-33.4

 

Ranking

The ranking decides the seeding of the Euro Finals
The ranking is decided by group position, higher number of points, superior goal difference etc.



ProbabilitiesAverage Outcome
GroupCountryEuroPlayoff2nd1stPot 4Pot 3Pot 2Pot 1RankGrp RnkPtsGD
JPortugal99.81%< 1%3.4%96.1%< 1%2.4%32%64%5.8120.518.6
FBelgium99.26%2.0%11%87%1.9%8%32%58%6.71.120.118.5
HDenmark99.21%1.8%9%89%2.5%7%41%49%7.41.119.616.3
ISwitzerland99.20%1.7%8%90%2.7%5%45%46%7.51.119.415.7
ASpain99.06%2.7%11%87%3.0%8%40%48%7.61.219.516.8
DCroatia96.7%7%23%70%6%18%41%32%9.91.418.414.2
GSerbia98.0%4.6%34%61%5%24%37%31%101.418.414.6
BNetherlands97.9%6%38%55%6%25%34%32%10.11.518.417.6
EPoland95.4%7%40%52%6%28%35%26%11.11.61813.7
CItaly95.6%13%30%57%10%23%36%26%11.21.617.914.4
BFrance96.4%10%48%42%9%33%33%23%11.71.717.615.8
ECzechia94%9%46%44%7%33%33%21%12.11.717.512.6
GHungary94%10%53%37%11%38%30%15%13.11.716.911.3
CEngland87%27%42%31%18%32%26%11%14.9216.110.7
DWales80%29%48%23%19%34%21%6%16.62.115.17.5
CUkraine65%59%27%12%30%21%11%2.3%202.613.75.7
FAustria64%51%42%6%28%28%7%1.3%202.513.13.5
FSweden51%< 1%45%7%13%29%8%1.5%20.22.513.33.8
HFinland63%49%45%6%34%22%7%< 1%20.52.612.31.8
AScotland66%55%38%6%36%23%7%< 1%20.62.712.42.4
IIsrael58%54%41%4.9%35%17%5%< 1%21.22.811.60.7
ANorway53%43%35%5%27%20%6%< 1%21.22.812.11.7
DTurkey53%66%26%8%26%18%8%1.0%21.42.712.52.6
HSlovenia44%33%34%3.9%24%16%4.2%< 1%21.92.911.40.1
JBosnia and Herzegovina54%58%40%2.0%38%14%2.4%< 1%21.92.910.8-1.1
IRomania39%< 1%35%3.8%20%14%4.1%< 1%22.12.911.1-0.2
JSlovakia29%< 1%28%1.1%19%8%1.3%< 1%23.23.39.8-3.1
EAlbania24%72%13%3.1%11%9%3.4%< 1%23.2311.40.3
AGeorgia49%82%16%1.7%40%8%1.8%< 1%23.33.49.9-2.4
JIceland24%4.4%23%< 1%17%6%< 1%< 1%23.53.49.2-4
BGreece51%91%7%1.4%44%6%1.6%< 1%23.73.410.60.4
IKosovo14%1.1%13%< 1%9%3.5%< 1%< 1%24.13.78.4-5
BIreland12%21%6%1.0%6%4.6%1.2%< 1%24.23.410.2-0.5
GMontenegro9%< 1%8%1.3%2.8%4.7%1.4%< 1%24.23.49.7-2.9
HNorthern Ireland12%< 1%11%< 1%8%3.3%< 1%< 1%24.23.78.3-5.5
GBulgaria6%< 1%4.9%< 1%2.1%2.7%< 1%< 1%24.53.68.8-4.9
JLuxembourg8%49%5%< 1%7%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.74.46-10
IBelarus3.2%< 1%3.1%< 1%2.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.84.55.5-9.6
CNorth Macedonia1.8%< 1%1.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.93.97.4-7.7
DArmenia2.0%< 1%1.8%< 1%1.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.94.16.5-9.4
HKazakhstan6%98.3%1.6%< 1%5%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.94.64.9-12.5
FEstonia2.8%93%1.3%< 1%2.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.94.35.5-12.1
FAzerbaijan1.6%12%< 1%< 1%1.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.94.54.8-13.7
DLatvia1.1%76%< 1%< 1%1.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.64.1-14.8
EFaroe Islands< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.35.6-12
EMoldova< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.54.4-14.7
ACyprus< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.92.8-18.4
GLithuania< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.83.1-18.1
IAndorra< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%255.90.3-1.5
CMalta< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.92-23.2
JLiechtenstein< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2560-0.4
BGibraltar< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2550.7-33.2


Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League ATop 2PlayoffHome Advantage
BNetherlands94%6%6%
DCroatia93%7%7%
ASpain97.3%2.7%2.7%
CItaly87%13%13%
HDenmark98.2%1.8%1.8%
JPortugal99.53%< 1%< 1%
FBelgium98.0%2.0%1.9%
GHungary90%10%10%
ISwitzerland98.3%1.7%1.6%

Germany


EPoland93%7%7%
BFrance90%10%9%
FAustria48%51%46%
ECzechia91%9%7%
CEngland73%27%19%
DWales71%29%16%
League BTop 2PlayoffHome Advantage
IIsrael46%54%54%
JBosnia and Herzegovina42%58%58%
GSerbia95.4%4.6%3.1%
AScotland45%55%37%
HFinland51%49%25%
CUkraine38%59%27%
EAlbania16%72%25%
ANorway40%43%11%
HSlovenia38%33%7%
BIreland7%21%4.2%
JIceland24%4.4%< 1%
GMontenegro9%< 1%
IRomania39%< 1%
FSweden51%< 1%
DArmenia2.0%< 1%
League CTop 2PlayoffHome Advantage
AGeorgia18%82%82%
BGreece9%91%91%
DTurkey34%66%17%
HKazakhstan1.7%98.3%9%
JLuxembourg5%49%< 1%
FAzerbaijan< 1%12%< 1%
IKosovo14%1.1%< 1%
GBulgaria6%< 1%< 1%
EFaroe Islands< 1%< 1%
CNorth Macedonia1.8%< 1%
JSlovakia29%

HNorthern Ireland12%

ACyprus< 1%

IBelarus3.2%

GLithuania< 1%

BGibraltar< 1%

League DTop 2PlayoffHome Advantage
FEstonia1.4%93%
DLatvia< 1%76%
EMoldova< 1%

CMalta< 1%

IAndorra< 1%

HSan Marino


JLiechtenstein< 1%



GroupCountryPlayoff2nd1stEuroLast 16QFSemiFinalChamp
ASpain2.7%11%87%99.06%88%60%38%23%13%

Germany


100%77%53%34%21%13%
BNetherlands6%38%55%97.9%88%60%38%22%13%
FBelgium2.0%11%87%99.26%86%57%35%20%11%
BFrance10%48%42%96.4%84%54%32%17%9%
JPortugal< 1%3.4%96.1%99.81%84%53%31%17%9%
CItaly13%30%57%95.6%82%52%29%16%8%
HDenmark1.8%9%89%99.21%81%48%26%13%6%
ISwitzerland1.7%8%90%99.20%76%41%20%9%3.9%
DCroatia7%23%70%96.7%75%40%19%9%3.6%
CEngland27%42%31%87%70%38%18%8%3.3%
GSerbia4.6%34%61%98.0%72%36%16%7%2.5%
GHungary10%53%37%94%62%26%10%3.3%1.0%
EPoland7%40%52%95.4%59%23%8%2.6%< 1%
CUkraine59%27%12%65%45%19%7%2.3%< 1%
ECzechia9%46%44%94%55%21%7%2.0%< 1%
DWales29%48%23%80%50%19%6%1.9%< 1%
AScotland55%38%6%66%41%14%4.3%1.1%< 1%
ANorway43%35%5%53%31%11%3.1%< 1%< 1%
FAustria51%42%6%64%35%11%3.0%< 1%< 1%
FSweden< 1%45%7%51%28%9%2.6%< 1%< 1%
BGreece91%7%1.4%51%28%8%2.0%< 1%< 1%
HFinland49%45%6%63%31%8%1.9%< 1%< 1%
DTurkey66%26%8%53%26%7%1.7%< 1%< 1%
AGeorgia82%16%1.7%49%24%6%1.3%< 1%< 1%
IIsrael54%41%4.9%58%23%5%< 1%< 1%< 1%
HSlovenia33%34%3.9%44%19%4.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%
JBosnia and Herzegovina58%40%2.0%54%21%4.3%< 1%< 1%< 1%
IRomania< 1%35%3.8%39%14%3.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%
JSlovakia
28%1.1%29%9%1.7%< 1%< 1%< 1%
BIreland21%6%1.0%12%6%1.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%
JIceland4.4%23%< 1%24%7%1.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%
EAlbania72%13%3.1%24%6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
IKosovo1.1%13%< 1%14%3.4%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
HNorthern Ireland
11%< 1%12%3.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
GMontenegro< 1%8%1.3%9%2.3%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
JLuxembourg49%5%< 1%8%1.4%< 1%< 1%< 1%
GBulgaria< 1%4.9%< 1%6%1.3%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
ACyprus
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

DLatvia76%< 1%< 1%1.1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

JLiechtenstein
< 1%
< 1%




DArmenia< 1%1.8%< 1%2.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
IBelarus
3.1%< 1%3.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
IAndorra
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%



CMalta
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%



EFaroe Islands< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


FAzerbaijan12%< 1%< 1%1.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%

HKazakhstan98.3%1.6%< 1%6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
HSan Marino








EMoldova
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


CNorth Macedonia< 1%1.6%< 1%1.8%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
GLithuania
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

BGibraltar
< 1%
< 1%




FEstonia93%1.3%< 1%2.8%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

 

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