Euro: Sweden host Belgium in early Group final

Important match between Sweden and Belgium in Group F, where Belgium are favorites and Sweden and Austria probably compete over the second spot. In Group G are Bulgaria and Montenegro playing a match both teams probably need to win to have a chance against Serbia and Hungary.

 

Group F

Sweden vs Belgium (3.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Sweden	69%	53%	45%
Austria	55%	63%	67%
Belgium	97.6%	99.1%	99.83%

Group G

Bulgaria vs Montenegro (2.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Montenegro	4.6%	8%	16%
Bulgaria	9%	3.8%	1.8%

 

Group B

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Netherlands	100%	94%	55%	5	16	18.4	21	24	17.6
France	>99.99%	90%	42%	4	16	17.6	19	24	15.8
Greece	100%	9%	1.4%	0	9	10.6	13	24	0.4
Ireland	34%	7%	1.0%	0	8	10.2	12	24	-0.5
Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.7	1	14	-33.2

Group E

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Poland	>99.99%	93%	52%	4	16	18	20	24	13.7
Czechia	99.91%	90%	44%	2	16	17.5	19	24	12.6
Albania	90%	16%	3.2%	0	9	11.4	13	24	0.3
Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	4	5.6	7	20	-12
Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	3	4.4	6	19	-14.7

 Group F

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Belgium	>99.99%	98.0%	87%	6	18	20.1	22	24	18.5
Sweden	51%	51%	7%	0	11	13.3	16	24	3.8
Austria	99.90%	48%	6%	0	11	13.1	15	24	3.5
Estonia	95%	1.4%	< 1%	0	4	5.5	7	21	-12.1
Azerbaijan	13%	< 1%	< 1%	0	3	4.8	7	19	-13.7

 Group G

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Serbia	100%	95.5%	61%	3	16	18.4	21	24	14.6
Hungary	>99.99%	90%	37%	0	15	16.9	19	24	11.3
Montenegro	9%	9%	1.3%	0	7	9.7	12	24	-2.9
Bulgaria	6%	5%	< 1%	0	7	8.7	11	24	-4.9
Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	1	3.1	4	17	-18.1

 

Ranking

The ranking decides the seeding of the Euro Finals
The ranking is decided by group position, higher number of points, superior goal difference etc.

		Probabilities								Average Outcome
Group	Country	Euro	Playoff	2nd	1st	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1	Rank	Grp Rnk	Pts	GD
J	Portugal	99.85%	< 1%	3.5%	96.1%	< 1%	2.4%	33%	64%	5.8	1	20.5	18.5
H	Denmark	99.51%	1.1%	7%	92%	1.5%	5%	37%	56%	6.7	1.1	20.1	16.3
F	Belgium	99.2%	2.0%	11%	87%	1.9%	8%	32%	57%	6.7	1.1	20.1	18.5
I	Switzerland	99.2%	1.6%	8%	90%	2.8%	5%	45%	46%	7.6	1.1	19.4	15.7
A	Spain	99.1%	2.7%	11%	87%	3.0%	8%	40%	48%	7.6	1.2	19.5	16.8
D	Croatia	96.7%	7%	23%	70%	6%	18%	41%	32%	9.9	1.4	18.4	14.2
G	Serbia	98.0%	4.5%	34%	61%	5%	24%	37%	31%	10.1	1.4	18.4	14.6
B	Netherlands	97.8%	6%	38%	55%	6%	25%	35%	32%	10.2	1.5	18.4	17.6
C	England	95%	11%	26%	63%	7%	20%	40%	27%	10.7	1.5	18.3	12.6
E	Poland	95.3%	7%	40%	52%	6%	28%	35%	26%	11.1	1.6	18	13.7
B	France	96.3%	10%	48%	42%	8%	33%	33%	22%	11.8	1.7	17.6	15.8
E	Czechia	94%	9%	46%	44%	7%	32%	33%	20%	12.1	1.7	17.5	12.6
G	Hungary	94%	10%	53%	37%	11%	38%	30%	15%	13.1	1.7	16.9	11.3
C	Italy	91%	27%	48%	25%	21%	37%	26%	7%	15.3	2	15.9	12.6
D	Wales	80%	29%	48%	23%	19%	34%	21%	6%	16.6	2.1	15.1	7.5
F	Austria	64%	51%	43%	6%	28%	27%	7%	1.3%	20.1	2.5	13.1	3.5
C	Ukraine	64%	62%	24%	12%	30%	19%	12%	2.3%	20.1	2.6	13.7	5.7
F	Sweden	51%	< 1%	45%	7%	13%	29%	8%	1.5%	20.2	2.5	13.3	3.8
A	Scotland	66%	55%	38%	6%	36%	22%	7%	< 1%	20.6	2.7	12.4	2.4
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	68%	40%	57%	2.9%	44%	20%	3.6%	< 1%	20.7	2.6	11.9	1.1
H	Slovenia	53%	31%	43%	4.6%	25%	22%	5%	< 1%	21	2.7	12.5	0.3
A	Norway	54%	44%	35%	5%	28%	20%	6%	< 1%	21.2	2.8	12.1	1.7
I	Israel	58%	54%	41%	4.9%	35%	17%	5%	< 1%	21.2	2.8	11.6	0.7
H	Finland	57%	57%	40%	2.8%	32%	21%	3.7%	< 1%	21.3	2.8	11.9	1.7
D	Turkey	53%	66%	26%	8%	26%	18%	8%	< 1%	21.4	2.7	12.6	2.6
I	Romania	39%	< 1%	35%	3.8%	20%	14%	4.1%	< 1%	22.1	2.9	11.1	-0.2
E	Albania	24%	73%	13%	3.2%	11%	9%	3.4%	< 1%	23.2	3	11.4	0.3
A	Georgia	49%	82%	16%	1.6%	40%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	23.3	3.4	9.9	-2.5
B	Greece	51%	91%	7%	1.4%	44%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	23.7	3.4	10.6	0.4
J	Slovakia	20%	< 1%	19%	< 1%	16%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	23.9	3.5	8.6	-4.2
I	Kosovo	14%	1.0%	13%	< 1%	9%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	24.1	3.7	8.4	-5
B	Ireland	13%	27%	6%	1.0%	7%	4.5%	1.2%	< 1%	24.2	3.4	10.2	-0.5
J	Iceland	15%	6%	14%	< 1%	12%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	24.2	3.6	8.3	-6.2
G	Montenegro	9%	< 1%	8%	1.3%	2.8%	4.6%	1.3%	< 1%	24.2	3.4	9.7	-2.9
H	Northern Ireland	11%	< 1%	10%	< 1%	7%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	24.3	3.7	8.3	-5.5
G	Bulgaria	6%	< 1%	4.8%	< 1%	2.1%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	24.6	3.6	8.7	-4.9
J	Luxembourg	8%	48%	6%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.7	4.3	6.4	-8.8
I	Belarus	3.2%	< 1%	3.1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.8	4.5	5.5	-9.6
C	North Macedonia	1.9%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.8	3.9	7.9	-8.7
D	Armenia	2.0%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	4.1	6.5	-9.4
F	Estonia	2.9%	93%	1.3%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	4.3	5.5	-12.1
H	Kazakhstan	4.4%	99.51%	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	4.8	4	-12.7
F	Azerbaijan	1.6%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	4.5	4.8	-13.7
D	Latvia	1.1%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.6	4.1	-14.8
E	Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.3	5.6	-12
E	Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.5	4.4	-14.7
A	Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.9	2.8	-18.5
G	Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.8	3.1	-18.1
I	Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	5.9	0.3	-1.5
C	Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	5	1.6	-22.2
J	Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	6	0	-0.3
B	Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	5	0.7	-33.2

Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League A		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
B	Netherlands	94%	6%	6%
D	Croatia	93%	7%	7%
A	Spain	97.3%	2.7%	2.7%
C	Italy	73%	27%	27%
H	Denmark	98.9%	1.1%	1.0%
J	Portugal	99.63%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Belgium	98.0%	2.0%	1.9%
G	Hungary	90%	10%	9%
I	Switzerland	98.4%	1.6%	1.5%
	Germany
E	Poland	93%	7%	7%
B	France	90%	10%	9%
F	Austria	48%	51%	44%
E	Czechia	90%	9%	6%
C	England	89%	11%	8%
D	Wales	71%	29%	17%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
I	Israel	46%	54%	54%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	60%	40%	40%
G	Serbia	95.5%	4.5%	3.5%
A	Scotland	45%	55%	42%
H	Finland	42%	57%	33%
C	Ukraine	36%	62%	30%
E	Albania	16%	73%	26%
A	Norway	40%	44%	11%
H	Slovenia	47%	31%	6%
B	Ireland	7%	27%	5%
J	Iceland	14%	6%	1.2%
G	Montenegro	9%	< 1%
I	Romania	39%	< 1%
F	Sweden	51%	< 1%
D	Armenia	2.0%	< 1%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
A	Georgia	18%	82%	82%
B	Greece	9%	91%	91%
D	Turkey	34%	66%	17%
H	Kazakhstan	< 1%	99.51%	9%
J	Luxembourg	6%	48%	< 1%
F	Azerbaijan	< 1%	12%	< 1%
I	Kosovo	14%	1.0%	< 1%
G	Bulgaria	5%	< 1%
E	Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%
C	North Macedonia	1.9%	< 1%
J	Slovakia	20%
H	Northern Ireland	11%
A	Cyprus	< 1%
I	Belarus	3.2%
G	Lithuania	< 1%
B	Gibraltar	< 1%
League D		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
F	Estonia	1.4%	93%
D	Latvia	< 1%	77%
E	Moldova	< 1%
C	Malta	< 1%
I	Andorra	< 1%
H	San Marino
J	Liechtenstein	< 1%

Group	Country	Playoff	2nd	1st	Euro	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
A	Spain	2.7%	11%	87%	99.1%	88%	60%	38%	23%	13%
	Germany				100%	77%	53%	34%	21%	13%
B	Netherlands	6%	38%	55%	97.8%	88%	60%	38%	22%	13%
F	Belgium	2.0%	11%	87%	99.2%	86%	57%	35%	20%	11%
B	France	10%	48%	42%	96.3%	84%	54%	32%	17%	9%
J	Portugal	< 1%	3.5%	96.1%	99.85%	84%	53%	31%	17%	9%
C	Italy	27%	48%	25%	91%	80%	51%	29%	15%	8%
H	Denmark	1.1%	7%	92%	99.51%	81%	48%	26%	13%	6%
I	Switzerland	1.6%	8%	90%	99.2%	76%	41%	20%	9%	3.9%
D	Croatia	7%	23%	70%	96.7%	75%	40%	19%	9%	3.6%
C	England	11%	26%	63%	95%	73%	39%	19%	8%	3.5%
G	Serbia	4.5%	34%	61%	98.0%	72%	36%	16%	7%	2.5%
G	Hungary	10%	53%	37%	94%	62%	26%	10%	3.3%	1.1%
E	Poland	7%	40%	52%	95.3%	59%	23%	8%	2.6%	< 1%
C	Ukraine	62%	24%	12%	64%	44%	19%	7%	2.3%	< 1%
E	Czechia	9%	46%	44%	94%	55%	21%	7%	2.0%	< 1%
D	Wales	29%	48%	23%	80%	50%	19%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
A	Scotland	55%	38%	6%	66%	41%	14%	4.4%	1.2%	< 1%
A	Norway	44%	35%	5%	54%	32%	11%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Austria	51%	43%	6%	64%	35%	11%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Sweden	< 1%	45%	7%	51%	28%	9%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Greece	91%	7%	1.4%	51%	28%	8%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Finland	57%	40%	2.8%	57%	28%	8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Turkey	66%	26%	8%	53%	26%	7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Georgia	82%	16%	1.6%	49%	24%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Slovenia	31%	43%	4.6%	53%	22%	5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Israel	54%	41%	4.9%	58%	23%	5%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	40%	57%	2.9%	68%	26%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Romania	< 1%	35%	3.8%	39%	14%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Ireland	27%	6%	1.0%	13%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Slovakia		19%	< 1%	20%	7%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Albania	73%	13%	3.2%	24%	6%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Iceland	6%	14%	< 1%	15%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Kosovo	1.0%	13%	< 1%	14%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Northern Ireland		10%	< 1%	11%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Montenegro	< 1%	8%	1.3%	9%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Luxembourg	48%	6%	< 1%	8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Bulgaria	< 1%	4.8%	< 1%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Cyprus		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Latvia	77%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Liechtenstein		< 1%		< 1%
D	Armenia	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Belarus		3.1%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Andorra		< 1%		< 1%
C	Malta		< 1%		< 1%
E	Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Estonia	93%	1.3%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Kazakhstan	99.51%	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	San Marino
E	Moldova		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	North Macedonia	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Lithuania		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Gibraltar		< 1%		< 1%
F	Azerbaijan	12%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%