Euro: Israel host Kosovo in key match

Below are the key matches tonight.

Group I

Israel vs Kosovo (6.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Kosovo	8%	16%	31%
Israel	65%	51%	41%

Group D

Armenia vs Turkey (3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Turkey	43%	48%	59%
Armenia	5%	1.7%	< 1%
Wales	85%	84%	77%

Group D

Croatia vs Wales (2.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wales	77%	83%	91%
Croatia	98.4%	95.3%	92%

Group A

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Spain	100%	97.3%	87%	4	18	19.5	22	24	16.8
Scotland	100%	45%	6%	0	10	12.4	15	24	2.4
Norway	85%	40%	5%	0	10	12.1	14	24	1.7
Georgia	100%	18%	1.6%	0	8	9.9	12	24	-2.4
Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	1	2.8	4	18	-18.4

 

Group D

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Croatia	100%	93%	69%	2	16	18.4	21	24	14.2
Wales	99.52%	71%	23%	0	13	15.1	17	24	7.5
Turkey	100%	34%	8%	0	10	12.6	15	24	2.6
Armenia	2.0%	2.0%	< 1%	0	4	6.5	8	22	-9.4
Latvia	80%	< 1%	< 1%	0	2	4.1	6	19	-14.8

Group I

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Switzerland	>99.99%	98.4%	90%	8	23	25.2	28	30	23.9
Israel	100%	46%	4.9%	1	14	16.9	19	30	5.8
Romania	39%	39%	3.9%	0	14	16.4	19	30	4.7
Kosovo	15%	14%	< 1%	0	11	13.4	16	30	-1.2
Belarus	3.2%	3.2%	< 1%	0	8	10.2	13	27	-7.5
Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	1	3.1	4	20	-25.6

 

 Ranking

The ranking decides the seeding of the Euro Finals
The ranking is decided by group position, higher number of points, superior goal difference etc.

		Probabilities								Average Outcome
Group	Country	Euro	Playoff	2nd	1st	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1	Rank	Grp Rnk	Pts	GD
F	Belgium	99.82%	< 1%	6%	94%	< 1%	4.0%	23%	73%	5.2	1.1	21.1	20.6
J	Portugal	99.84%	< 1%	3.5%	96.2%	< 1%	2.4%	34%	63%	5.9	1	20.5	18.6
H	Denmark	99.51%	1.1%	7%	92%	1.5%	5%	38%	54%	6.8	1.1	20.1	16.3
I	Switzerland	99.19%	1.6%	8%	90%	2.8%	6%	46%	45%	7.7	1.1	19.4	15.7
A	Spain	99.06%	2.7%	10%	87%	3.0%	8%	41%	47%	7.7	1.2	19.5	16.8
B	France	98.3%	4.4%	26%	70%	3.2%	17%	37%	40%	8.8	1.4	19	19.5
E	Czechia	97.0%	4.4%	26%	69%	2.8%	19%	40%	35%	9.3	1.4	18.9	15.2
D	Croatia	96.7%	7%	23%	69%	6%	18%	42%	31%	10	1.4	18.4	14.2
G	Serbia	97.6%	5%	33%	61%	5%	24%	38%	30%	10.2	1.4	18.5	12.8
C	England	95.1%	11%	27%	63%	7%	21%	41%	26%	10.8	1.5	18.3	12.6
B	Netherlands	96.5%	11%	62%	28%	10%	40%	35%	12%	13.1	1.8	17.2	13.9
G	Hungary	93%	12%	52%	36%	11%	38%	30%	15%	13.3	1.8	16.9	11.3
E	Poland	93%	12%	61%	28%	9%	42%	32%	9%	13.8	1.8	16.8	11.1
C	Italy	91%	27%	48%	25%	22%	37%	26%	7%	15.3	2	15.9	12.6
D	Wales	80%	29%	48%	23%	20%	34%	21%	6%	16.6	2.1	15.1	7.5
F	Austria	70%	43%	52%	4.7%	28%	34%	6%	1.3%	19.5	2.4	13.6	4.2
C	Ukraine	64%	62%	24%	12%	31%	20%	12%	2.1%	20.1	2.6	13.7	5.7
A	Scotland	66%	55%	38%	6%	37%	22%	7%	< 1%	20.7	2.7	12.4	2.4
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	68%	40%	57%	2.9%	44%	20%	3.5%	< 1%	20.8	2.6	12	1.1
H	Slovenia	54%	32%	43%	4.6%	26%	22%	5%	< 1%	21	2.7	12.5	0.3
A	Norway	54%	45%	35%	5%	28%	20%	6%	< 1%	21.3	2.8	12.1	1.7
I	Israel	58%	54%	41%	4.9%	35%	17%	5%	< 1%	21.3	2.8	11.6	0.7
H	Finland	57%	58%	39%	2.8%	33%	21%	3.6%	< 1%	21.3	2.8	11.9	1.7
D	Turkey	53%	66%	26%	8%	26%	18%	8%	< 1%	21.4	2.7	12.6	2.6
F	Sweden	42%	< 1%	40%	1.3%	14%	25%	2.6%	< 1%	21.6	2.7	12.5	1.7
I	Romania	39%	< 1%	35%	3.9%	21%	14%	4.2%	< 1%	22.1	2.9	11.1	-0.2
E	Albania	23%	75%	12%	3.0%	11%	9%	3.2%	< 1%	23.3	3	11.4	0.3
A	Georgia	49%	82%	16%	1.6%	40%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	23.3	3.4	9.9	-2.4
G	Montenegro	15%	< 1%	13%	2.5%	3.8%	9%	2.7%	< 1%	23.6	3	11.5	-1.6
B	Greece	51%	91%	7%	1.5%	44%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	23.7	3.3	10.9	0.6
J	Slovakia	20%	< 1%	19%	< 1%	16%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	23.9	3.5	8.6	-4.2
I	Kosovo	14%	1.0%	13%	< 1%	9%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	24.1	3.7	8.4	-5
J	Iceland	15%	7%	14%	< 1%	12%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	24.2	3.6	8.3	-6.2
B	Ireland	13%	28%	5%	1.0%	7%	4.1%	1.1%	< 1%	24.2	3.5	10.2	-0.5
H	Northern Ireland	11%	< 1%	10%	< 1%	7%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	24.3	3.7	8.3	-5.5
J	Luxembourg	8%	48%	6%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.7	4.3	6.4	-8.8
I	Belarus	3.2%	< 1%	3.1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.8	4.5	5.5	-9.6
C	North Macedonia	1.9%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.8	3.9	7.9	-8.7
D	Armenia	2.0%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	4.1	6.5	-9.4
G	Bulgaria	1.8%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	4	7.2	-6.2
F	Estonia	3.0%	94%	1.4%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	4.3	5.5	-12.1
E	Faroe Islands	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	3.9	7.3	-10.7
H	Kazakhstan	4.5%	99.50%	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	4.8	4	-12.7
D	Latvia	1.2%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.6	4.1	-14.8
F	Azerbaijan	1.2%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.5	4.5	-14.5
A	Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.9	2.8	-18.4
G	Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.8	3	-16.3
E	Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.8	2.9	-15.9
I	Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	5.9	0.3	-1.5
C	Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	5	1.6	-22.2
J	Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	6	0	-0.3

Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League A		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
B	Netherlands	89%	11%	11%
D	Croatia	93%	7%	7%
A	Spain	97.3%	2.7%	2.7%
C	Italy	73%	27%	27%
H	Denmark	98.9%	1.1%	1.0%
J	Portugal	99.62%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Belgium	99.53%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Hungary	88%	12%	11%
I	Switzerland	98.4%	1.6%	1.4%
	Germany
E	Poland	88%	12%	10%
B	France	95.6%	4.4%	3.9%
F	Austria	57%	43%	35%
E	Czechia	95.5%	4.4%	3.1%
C	England	89%	11%	8%
D	Wales	71%	29%	18%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
I	Israel	46%	54%	54%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	60%	40%	40%
G	Serbia	95%	5%	4.1%
A	Scotland	45%	55%	42%
H	Finland	42%	58%	34%
C	Ukraine	36%	62%	31%
E	Albania	15%	75%	28%
A	Norway	40%	45%	12%
H	Slovenia	48%	32%	7%
B	Ireland	6%	28%	6%
J	Iceland	14%	7%	1.4%
G	Montenegro	15%	< 1%
I	Romania	39%	< 1%
F	Sweden	42%	< 1%
D	Armenia	2.0%	< 1%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
A	Georgia	18%	82%	82%
B	Greece	9%	91%	91%
D	Turkey	34%	66%	16%
H	Kazakhstan	< 1%	99.50%	9%
J	Luxembourg	6%	48%	< 1%
F	Azerbaijan	< 1%	12%	< 1%
I	Kosovo	14%	1.0%	< 1%
G	Bulgaria	1.8%	< 1%
E	Faroe Islands	1.1%	< 1%
C	North Macedonia	1.9%
J	Slovakia	20%
H	Northern Ireland	11%
A	Cyprus	< 1%
I	Belarus	3.2%
G	Lithuania	< 1%
B	Gibraltar
League D		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
F	Estonia	1.4%	94%
D	Latvia	< 1%	79%
E	Moldova	< 1%
C	Malta	< 1%
I	Andorra	< 1%
H	San Marino
J	Liechtenstein	< 1%

Group	Country	Playoff	2nd	1st	Euro	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
A	Spain	2.7%	10%	87%	99.06%	88%	60%	38%	23%	13%
B	Netherlands	11%	62%	28%	96.5%	88%	60%	38%	23%	13%
	Germany				100%	77%	53%	34%	21%	13%
F	Belgium	< 1%	6%	94%	99.82%	86%	56%	34%	20%	11%
B	France	4.4%	26%	70%	98.3%	84%	54%	32%	17%	9%
J	Portugal	< 1%	3.5%	96.2%	99.84%	84%	53%	31%	17%	9%
C	Italy	27%	48%	25%	91%	80%	51%	29%	15%	8%
H	Denmark	1.1%	7%	92%	99.51%	81%	48%	26%	13%	6%
I	Switzerland	1.6%	8%	90%	99.19%	76%	41%	20%	9%	3.9%
D	Croatia	7%	23%	69%	96.7%	75%	40%	19%	9%	3.6%
C	England	11%	27%	63%	95.1%	74%	39%	19%	8%	3.5%
G	Serbia	5%	33%	61%	97.6%	72%	36%	16%	7%	2.5%
G	Hungary	12%	52%	36%	93%	62%	26%	10%	3.3%	1.0%
E	Poland	12%	61%	28%	93%	59%	24%	8%	2.6%	< 1%
C	Ukraine	62%	24%	12%	64%	45%	19%	7%	2.3%	< 1%
E	Czechia	4.4%	26%	69%	97.0%	55%	20%	7%	2.0%	< 1%
D	Wales	29%	48%	23%	80%	50%	19%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
A	Scotland	55%	38%	6%	66%	41%	14%	4.3%	1.2%	< 1%
F	Austria	43%	52%	4.7%	70%	38%	12%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Norway	45%	35%	5%	54%	32%	11%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Sweden	< 1%	40%	1.3%	42%	23%	8%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Greece	91%	7%	1.5%	51%	28%	8%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Finland	58%	39%	2.8%	57%	28%	8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Turkey	66%	26%	8%	53%	26%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Georgia	82%	16%	1.6%	49%	24%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Slovenia	32%	43%	4.6%	54%	23%	5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Israel	54%	41%	4.9%	58%	23%	5%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	40%	57%	2.9%	68%	26%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Romania	< 1%	35%	3.9%	39%	14%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Ireland	28%	5%	1.0%	13%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Slovakia		19%	< 1%	20%	7%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Albania	75%	12%	3.0%	23%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Iceland	7%	14%	< 1%	15%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Montenegro	< 1%	13%	2.5%	15%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Kosovo	1.0%	13%	< 1%	14%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Northern Ireland		10%	< 1%	11%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Luxembourg	48%	6%	< 1%	8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Armenia	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Liechtenstein		< 1%		< 1%
D	Latvia	79%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Malta		< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
I	Belarus		3.1%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Andorra		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	North Macedonia		1.6%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Estonia	94%	1.4%	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Kazakhstan	99.50%	< 1%	< 1%	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	San Marino
E	Moldova		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Gibraltar
G	Lithuania		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Bulgaria	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Cyprus		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Azerbaijan	12%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%