Sunday, March 26, 2023

Euro: Slovakia host Bosnia in a crucial match

 In Group J, 3rd-favorite Slovakia play 2nd-favorite Bosnia and Herzogovina in a crucial match. In Group H, 4th-favorite Northern Ireland play 3rd-favorite Finland. In Group C, England play Ukraine and if they win this match too, they are almost (>98%) qualified.

Group J

Slovakia vs Bosnia and Herzegovina (13.5%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Slovakia33%15%5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina55%71%85%

Group H
Northern Ireland vs Finland (7%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Northern Ireland21%9%3.5%
Finland46%55%67%
Slovenia57%57%48%

Group C
England vs Ukraine (4.7%)Home WinDrawAway Win
England98.3%93%86%
Ukraine58%67%79%

 

Group C


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff		At least
Second		Group
Winner		Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
England99.92%89%63%51618.3202412.6
Italy100%73%25%21415.9182112.6
Ukraine97.7%36%12%01213.716245.7
North Macedonia1.9%1.9%< 1%367.91022-8.7
Malta< 1%< 1%< 1%001.6313-22.2

Group H


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff		At least
Second		Group
Winner		Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Denmark100%98.9%92%122426.1283028.7
Slovenia77%48%4.6%61618.321309.3
Finland99.80%42%2.8%41617.8202711.1
Northern Ireland11%11%< 1%31214.216300.9
Kazakhstan100%< 1%< 1%079.51125-6.4
San Marino< 1%< 1%< 1%000.5110-43.7

Group J


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff		At least
Second		Group
Winner		Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Portugal100%99.61%96.1%122526.5283027.2
Bosnia and Herzegovina100%60%2.9%41517.520307.5
Slovakia20%20%< 1%21214.116281.7
Iceland19%15%< 1%11213.81627-0.4
Luxembourg59%6%< 1%1911.51426-4.4
Liechtenstein< 1%< 1%< 1%001.7315-31.6

Ranking

The ranking decides the seeding of the Euro Finals
The ranking is decided by group position, higher number of points, superior goal difference etc.



ProbabilitiesAverage Outcome
GroupCountryEuroPlayoff2nd1stPot 4Pot 3Pot 2Pot 1RankGrp RnkPtsGD
FBelgium99.81%< 1%6%94%< 1%3.9%23%72%5.21.121.120.6
JPortugal99.84%< 1%3.5%96.1%< 1%2.4%34%63%5.9120.518.5
HDenmark99.5%1.1%7%92%1.5%5%39%54%6.81.120.116.3
ISwitzerland99.50%< 1%6%93%1.7%4.1%41%53%6.81.119.818.4
ASpain99.5%1.5%8%91%1.7%6%37%54%6.91.12017.8
BFrance98.2%4.4%26%70%3.2%17%38%40%8.81.41919.5
ECzechia97.0%4.4%26%69%2.7%19%41%35%9.31.418.915.2
GSerbia97.6%5%33%61%5%24%38%29%10.31.418.512.8
CEngland95%11%26%63%7%21%41%26%10.81.518.312.6
DCroatia94%12%31%57%9%24%44%16%12.11.617.313
BNetherlands96.5%11%62%28%10%40%35%12%13.11.817.213.9
GHungary93%12%52%36%11%38%30%15%13.31.816.911.3
EPoland93%12%61%28%9%42%32%9%13.81.816.811.1
CItaly91%27%48%25%21%37%26%7%15.3215.912.6
DWales80%30%41%29%16%32%27%6%16.2215.48.6
FAustria69%43%52%4.7%28%34%7%1.3%19.52.413.64.2
CUkraine64%62%24%12%31%20%12%2.1%20.12.613.75.7
DTurkey58%59%28%14%22%21%13%1.5%20.32.513.72.9
AScotland69%51%43%6%36%26%6%< 1%20.42.712.72.8
JBosnia and Herzegovina68%40%57%2.9%44%20%3.5%< 1%20.72.611.91.1
HSlovenia53%29%43%4.6%25%22%5%< 1%212.712.50.3
HFinland57%57%40%2.8%32%21%3.7%< 1%21.32.811.91.7
FSweden42%< 1%40%1.3%14%25%2.6%< 1%21.62.712.51.8
IRomania48%< 1%44%3.8%28%15%4.1%< 1%21.72.811.2-0.2
ANorway50%46%33%2.3%28%18%3.0%< 1%21.92.911.70.7
IIsrael50%65%33%2.4%36%11%2.5%< 1%22.3310.6-0.4
EAlbania23%74%12%3.0%11%9%3.3%< 1%23.3311.40.3
AGeorgia50%82%16%1.3%40%8%1.4%< 1%23.43.49.9-2.4
GMontenegro15%< 1%13%2.4%3.7%9%2.6%< 1%23.6311.5-1.6
BGreece52%91%7%1.5%45%6%1.7%< 1%23.73.310.90.6
JSlovakia20%< 1%19%< 1%16%3.7%< 1%< 1%23.93.58.6-4.2
IKosovo16%1.1%15%< 1%12%3.4%< 1%< 1%24.13.68.6-4
JIceland15%4.9%14%< 1%12%2.5%< 1%< 1%24.23.68.3-6.2
BIreland12%24%5%< 1%6%4.1%1.1%< 1%24.33.510.2-0.5
HNorthern Ireland11%< 1%10%< 1%7%3.4%< 1%< 1%24.33.78.3-5.5
JLuxembourg9%53%6%< 1%8%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.74.36.3-8.8
CNorth Macedonia1.9%< 1%1.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.83.97.9-8.7
IBelarus2.8%< 1%2.8%< 1%2.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.94.65.2-12.4
GBulgaria1.9%< 1%1.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.947.2-6.2
FEstonia2.9%94%1.4%< 1%2.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.94.35.5-12.1
EFaroe Islands1.1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.93.97.3-10.7
HKazakhstan4.6%99.50%< 1%< 1%4.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.94.84-12.7
DLatvia1.1%78%< 1%< 1%1.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.64.1-14.8
DArmenia< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.35.5-9.7
FAzerbaijan1.3%14%< 1%< 1%1.3%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.54.5-14.5
ACyprus< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.92.6-18.9
GLithuania< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.83-16.3
EMoldova< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.82.9-15.9
IAndorra< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%255.90.2-1.4
CMalta< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2551.6-22.2
JLiechtenstein< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2560-0.3


Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League ATop 2PlayoffHome Advantage
BNetherlands89%11%11%
DCroatia88%12%12%
ASpain98.5%1.5%1.4%
CItaly73%27%27%
HDenmark98.9%1.1%1.0%
JPortugal99.61%< 1%< 1%
FBelgium99.52%< 1%< 1%
GHungary88%12%11%
ISwitzerland99.0%< 1%< 1%

Germany


EPoland88%12%10%
BFrance95.6%4.4%3.8%
FAustria57%43%35%
ECzechia95.6%4.4%3.0%
CEngland89%11%8%
DWales70%30%19%
League BTop 2PlayoffHome Advantage
IIsrael35%65%65%
JBosnia and Herzegovina60%40%40%
GSerbia95%5%3.9%
AScotland49%51%37%
HFinland42%57%32%
CUkraine36%62%29%
EAlbania15%74%26%
ANorway35%46%12%
HSlovenia48%29%6%
BIreland6%24%5%
JIceland15%4.9%< 1%
GMontenegro15%< 1%
IRomania48%< 1%
FSweden42%< 1%
DArmenia< 1%< 1%
League CTop 2PlayoffHome Advantage
AGeorgia18%82%82%
BGreece9%91%91%
DTurkey41%59%15%
HKazakhstan< 1%99.50%11%
JLuxembourg6%53%< 1%
FAzerbaijan< 1%14%< 1%
IKosovo15%1.1%< 1%
GBulgaria1.8%< 1%
EFaroe Islands1.1%< 1%
CNorth Macedonia1.9%< 1%
JSlovakia20%

HNorthern Ireland11%

ACyprus< 1%

IBelarus2.8%

GLithuania< 1%

BGibraltar


League DTop 2PlayoffHome Advantage
FEstonia1.4%94%
DLatvia< 1%78%
EMoldova< 1%

CMalta< 1%

IAndorra< 1%

HSan Marino


JLiechtenstein< 1%



GroupCountryPlayoff2nd1stEuroLast 16QFSemiFinalChamp
ASpain1.5%8%91%99.5%88%60%38%23%13%
BNetherlands11%62%28%96.5%88%60%38%23%13%

Germany


100%77%53%34%21%13%
FBelgium< 1%6%94%99.81%86%57%34%20%11%
BFrance4.4%26%70%98.2%84%54%32%17%9%
JPortugal< 1%3.5%96.1%99.84%84%54%31%17%9%
CItaly27%48%25%91%80%51%29%15%8%
HDenmark1.1%7%92%99.5%81%48%26%13%6%
ISwitzerland< 1%6%93%99.50%76%41%20%9%4.0%
DCroatia12%31%57%94%75%40%19%9%3.6%
CEngland11%26%63%95%74%39%19%8%3.5%
GSerbia5%33%61%97.6%72%36%16%7%2.5%
GHungary12%52%36%93%62%26%10%3.3%1.0%
EPoland12%61%28%93%59%24%8%2.6%< 1%
CUkraine62%24%12%64%44%19%7%2.3%< 1%
ECzechia4.4%26%69%97.0%55%20%7%2.0%< 1%
DWales30%41%29%80%50%19%6%1.9%< 1%
AScotland51%43%6%69%42%15%4.4%1.2%< 1%
FAustria43%52%4.7%69%38%12%3.3%< 1%< 1%
ANorway46%33%2.3%50%30%10%2.9%< 1%< 1%
FSweden< 1%40%1.3%42%24%8%2.1%< 1%< 1%
BGreece91%7%1.5%52%28%8%2.0%< 1%< 1%
DTurkey59%28%14%58%28%8%1.8%< 1%< 1%
HFinland57%40%2.8%57%28%8%1.8%< 1%< 1%
AGeorgia82%16%1.3%50%24%6%1.3%< 1%< 1%
HSlovenia29%43%4.6%53%22%5%1.1%< 1%< 1%
JBosnia and Herzegovina40%57%2.9%68%26%5%< 1%< 1%< 1%
IIsrael65%33%2.4%50%21%4.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%
IRomania< 1%44%3.8%48%18%3.7%< 1%< 1%< 1%
BIreland24%5%< 1%12%6%1.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%
JSlovakia
19%< 1%20%7%1.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%
EAlbania74%12%3.0%23%6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
JIceland4.9%14%< 1%15%4.7%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
GMontenegro< 1%13%2.4%15%4.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
IKosovo1.1%15%< 1%16%3.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
HNorthern Ireland
10%< 1%11%2.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
JLuxembourg53%6%< 1%9%1.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%
EFaroe Islands< 1%< 1%< 1%1.1%< 1%< 1%


DArmenia< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

JLiechtenstein
< 1%
< 1%




DLatvia78%< 1%< 1%1.1%< 1%< 1%


CMalta
< 1%
< 1%< 1%



IBelarus
2.8%< 1%2.8%< 1%< 1%< 1%

IAndorra
< 1%
< 1%




CNorth Macedonia< 1%1.6%< 1%1.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
FEstonia94%1.4%< 1%2.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%

HKazakhstan99.50%< 1%< 1%4.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
HSan Marino








EMoldova
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%



BGibraltar








GLithuania
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


GBulgaria< 1%1.6%< 1%1.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
ACyprus
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

FAzerbaijan14%< 1%< 1%1.3%< 1%< 1%< 1%

 

 

 

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