Euro: Poland host chellenger Albania in Group E

Tonight we have an important match in Group E when Poland host challenger Albania. In Group G, Montenegro host neighbour Serbia in a hot derby, while Bulgaria visit Hungary in a match they must win.

Group E

Poland vs Albania (7.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Poland	96.3%	87%	73%
Albania	18%	31%	52%

Group G

Montenegro vs Serbia (6.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Montenegro	36%	17%	10%
Serbia	91%	96.9%	99.3%
Hungary	89%	93%	94%

Group G

Hungary vs Bulgaria (2.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Bulgaria	< 1%	3.3%	11%
Hungary	95%	89%	83%
Montenegro	14%	21%	23%

Group F

Austria vs Estonia (2.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Sweden	39%	52%	56%
Austria	73%	61%	54%
Estonia	2.3%	4.1%	9%

Group B

Ireland vs France (2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Ireland	21%	11%	8%
France	95%	97.9%	99.38%

 Group B

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
France	>99.99%	95.6%	70%	7	17	19	21	24	19.5
Netherlands	100%	89%	28%	5	16	17.2	19	21	13.9
Greece	100%	9%	1.4%	3	9	10.9	13	24	0.6
Ireland	26%	6%	1.0%	0	8	10.2	12	24	-0.5
Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.5	1	10	-33.4

Group E

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Czechia	99.95%	95.6%	69%	4	17	18.9	21	24	15.2
Poland	99.99%	88%	28%	1	15	16.9	19	21	11.1
Albania	87%	15%	3.0%	0	9	11.4	13	24	0.3
Faroe Islands	1.1%	1.1%	< 1%	3	6	7.3	9	21	-10.7
Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	1	2.9	4	18	-15.9

 Group F

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Belgium	100%	99.53%	94%	7	19	21.1	22	24	20.6
Austria	99.84%	57%	4.7%	3	12	13.6	16	24	4.2
Sweden	42%	42%	1.3%	0	10	12.5	15	21	1.8
Estonia	95.6%	1.4%	< 1%	0	4	5.5	7	21	-12.1
Azerbaijan	15%	< 1%	< 1%	0	3	4.5	6	19	-14.5

 Group G

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Serbia	100%	95%	61%	4	17	18.5	21	24	12.8
Hungary	>99.99%	88%	36%	1	15	16.9	19	24	11.3
Montenegro	15%	15%	2.5%	3	10	11.5	13	24	-1.6
Bulgaria	2.1%	1.8%	< 1%	0	5	7.2	9	21	-6.2
Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	1	3	4	18	-16.3

 Ranking

The ranking decides the seeding of the Euro Finals
The ranking is decided by group position, higher number of points, superior goal difference etc.

		Probabilities								Average Outcome
Group	Country	Euro	Playoff	2nd	1st	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1	Rank	Grp Rnk	Pts	GD
J	Portugal	99.90%	< 1%	1.9%	97.8%	< 1%	1.4%	25%	73%	5	1	20.9	22.1
F	Belgium	99.83%	< 1%	6%	94%	< 1%	3.9%	21%	74%	5.1	1.1	21.1	20.6
I	Switzerland	99.52%	< 1%	6%	93%	1.6%	4.1%	39%	55%	6.7	1.1	19.8	18.4
A	Spain	99.52%	1.4%	8%	91%	1.6%	6%	36%	56%	6.7	1.1	20	17.8
C	England	98.5%	3.1%	22%	75%	2.3%	16%	40%	40%	8.6	1.3	19.3	14.6
B	France	98.3%	4.4%	26%	70%	3.2%	17%	36%	42%	8.7	1.4	19	19.5
E	Czechia	97.0%	4.4%	26%	69%	2.7%	19%	39%	36%	9.2	1.4	18.9	15.2
G	Serbia	97.5%	5%	33%	61%	5%	24%	37%	31%	10.2	1.4	18.5	12.8
H	Denmark	98.0%	4.8%	17%	78%	6%	13%	61%	17%	10.5	1.3	17.5	12.9
D	Croatia	94%	12%	31%	57%	10%	25%	43%	17%	12	1.6	17.3	13
B	Netherlands	96.6%	11%	62%	28%	10%	40%	34%	13%	13	1.8	17.2	13.9
G	Hungary	93%	12%	52%	36%	11%	38%	29%	15%	13.2	1.8	16.9	11.3
E	Poland	93%	12%	61%	28%	9%	42%	31%	10%	13.7	1.8	16.9	11.1
C	Italy	92%	23%	56%	21%	19%	43%	24%	7%	15.1	2	16.1	11.3
D	Wales	81%	30%	41%	29%	17%	32%	26%	6%	16.1	2	15.4	8.6
F	Austria	70%	43%	52%	4.7%	28%	34%	6%	1.4%	19.5	2.4	13.6	4.2
H	Finland	68%	43%	45%	12%	28%	27%	12%	< 1%	19.5	2.4	13.4	2.5
D	Turkey	58%	58%	28%	14%	22%	21%	13%	1.7%	20.3	2.5	13.7	2.9
A	Scotland	68%	51%	43%	6%	35%	26%	6%	< 1%	20.4	2.7	12.7	2.8
H	Slovenia	48%	30%	33%	10%	20%	18%	9%	< 1%	21	2.7	12.5	0.3
F	Sweden	42%	< 1%	40%	1.3%	14%	25%	2.6%	< 1%	21.6	2.7	12.5	1.8
I	Romania	48%	< 1%	44%	3.7%	28%	15%	4.0%	< 1%	21.7	2.8	11.2	-0.2
C	Ukraine	57%	73%	21%	3.7%	35%	16%	5%	< 1%	21.7	2.8	12.9	3.7
A	Norway	49%	44%	33%	2.3%	27%	19%	2.9%	< 1%	21.9	2.9	11.7	0.7
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	54%	57%	42%	1.1%	43%	11%	1.2%	< 1%	22.2	2.9	10.8	-0.6
I	Israel	50%	65%	33%	2.4%	36%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	22.3	3	10.6	-0.4
J	Slovakia	33%	< 1%	32%	< 1%	25%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	23.1	3.1	10.1	-2.6
E	Albania	23%	72%	12%	3.0%	11%	9%	3.2%	< 1%	23.3	3	11.4	0.3
A	Georgia	50%	82%	16%	1.3%	40%	8%	1.4%	< 1%	23.4	3.4	9.9	-2.4
G	Montenegro	15%	< 1%	13%	2.5%	3.7%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	23.6	3	11.5	-1.6
B	Greece	52%	91%	7%	1.4%	45%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	23.7	3.3	10.9	0.6
J	Iceland	19%	3.6%	19%	< 1%	16%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	24	3.6	8.4	-6.2
I	Kosovo	16%	1.2%	15%	< 1%	12%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	24.1	3.6	8.6	-4
B	Ireland	11%	19%	5%	1.0%	6%	4.2%	1.1%	< 1%	24.3	3.5	10.2	-0.5
J	Luxembourg	8%	54%	5%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.7	4.4	6.1	-12.5
H	Northern Ireland	3.9%	< 1%	3.5%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.7	4.2	7.1	-6.3
H	Kazakhstan	6%	98.2%	1.7%	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	4.5	6.7	-9.4
C	North Macedonia	1.7%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	3.9	7.9	-8.7
I	Belarus	2.8%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	4.6	5.2	-12.4
G	Bulgaria	1.9%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	4	7.2	-6.2
F	Estonia	3.0%	94%	1.4%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	4.3	5.5	-12.1
E	Faroe Islands	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	3.9	7.3	-10.7
D	Latvia	1.1%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.6	4.1	-14.8
D	Armenia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.3	5.5	-9.7
F	Azerbaijan	1.3%	14%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.5	4.5	-14.5
A	Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.9	2.6	-18.9
G	Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.8	3	-16.3
E	Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.8	2.9	-15.9
I	Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	5.9	0.2	-1.4
J	Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	6	0	-0.3
C	Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	5	1.5	-20.9

Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League A		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
B	Netherlands	89%	11%	11%
D	Croatia	88%	12%	12%
A	Spain	98.6%	1.4%	1.4%
C	Italy	77%	23%	23%
H	Denmark	95.2%	4.8%	4.5%
J	Portugal	99.75%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Belgium	99.53%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Hungary	88%	12%	11%
I	Switzerland	99.02%	< 1%	< 1%
	Germany
E	Poland	88%	12%	10%
B	France	95.6%	4.4%	3.8%
F	Austria	57%	43%	35%
E	Czechia	95.6%	4.4%	3.1%
C	England	96.9%	3.1%	2.2%
D	Wales	70%	30%	20%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
I	Israel	35%	65%	65%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	43%	57%	57%
G	Serbia	95%	5%	3.4%
A	Scotland	49%	51%	31%
H	Finland	57%	43%	22%
C	Ukraine	24%	73%	34%
E	Albania	15%	72%	26%
A	Norway	35%	44%	12%
H	Slovenia	42%	30%	7%
B	Ireland	6%	19%	4.7%
J	Iceland	19%	3.6%	< 1%
G	Montenegro	15%	< 1%
I	Romania	48%	< 1%
F	Sweden	42%	< 1%
D	Armenia	< 1%	< 1%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
A	Georgia	18%	82%	82%
B	Greece	9%	91%	91%
D	Turkey	42%	58%	14%
H	Kazakhstan	1.8%	98.2%	11%
J	Luxembourg	5%	54%	< 1%
F	Azerbaijan	< 1%	14%	< 1%
I	Kosovo	15%	1.2%	< 1%
G	Bulgaria	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Faroe Islands	1.1%	< 1%
C	North Macedonia	1.7%	< 1%
J	Slovakia	33%
H	Northern Ireland	3.9%
A	Cyprus	< 1%
I	Belarus	2.8%
G	Lithuania	< 1%
B	Gibraltar
League D		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
F	Estonia	1.4%	94%
D	Latvia	< 1%	81%
E	Moldova	< 1%
C	Malta	< 1%
I	Andorra	< 1%
H	San Marino
J	Liechtenstein	< 1%

Group	Country	Playoff	2nd	1st	Euro	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
A	Spain	1.4%	8%	91%	99.52%	88%	60%	38%	23%	13%
B	Netherlands	11%	62%	28%	96.6%	88%	60%	38%	23%	13%
	Germany				100%	77%	53%	34%	21%	13%
F	Belgium	< 1%	6%	94%	99.83%	86%	56%	34%	20%	11%
B	France	4.4%	26%	70%	98.3%	84%	54%	32%	17%	9%
J	Portugal	< 1%	1.9%	97.8%	99.90%	84%	53%	31%	17%	9%
C	Italy	23%	56%	21%	92%	81%	51%	29%	16%	8%
H	Denmark	4.8%	17%	78%	98.0%	82%	49%	27%	14%	6%
I	Switzerland	< 1%	6%	93%	99.52%	76%	41%	20%	9%	3.9%
D	Croatia	12%	31%	57%	94%	75%	40%	19%	9%	3.6%
C	England	3.1%	22%	75%	98.5%	75%	40%	19%	9%	3.5%
G	Serbia	5%	33%	61%	97.5%	72%	36%	16%	7%	2.5%
G	Hungary	12%	52%	36%	93%	62%	26%	10%	3.3%	1.0%
E	Poland	12%	61%	28%	93%	59%	24%	8%	2.7%	< 1%
C	Ukraine	73%	21%	3.7%	57%	41%	17%	6%	2.1%	< 1%
E	Czechia	4.4%	26%	69%	97.0%	55%	20%	7%	2.0%	< 1%
D	Wales	30%	41%	29%	81%	50%	19%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
A	Scotland	51%	43%	6%	68%	41%	15%	4.4%	1.2%	< 1%
F	Austria	43%	52%	4.7%	70%	38%	12%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Norway	44%	33%	2.3%	49%	29%	10%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Sweden	< 1%	40%	1.3%	42%	24%	8%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Greece	91%	7%	1.4%	52%	28%	8%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Finland	43%	45%	12%	68%	32%	9%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Turkey	58%	28%	14%	58%	28%	8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Georgia	82%	16%	1.3%	50%	24%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Slovenia	30%	33%	10%	48%	20%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Israel	65%	33%	2.4%	50%	20%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	57%	42%	1.1%	54%	21%	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Romania	< 1%	44%	3.7%	48%	18%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Slovakia		32%	< 1%	33%	11%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Ireland	19%	5%	1.0%	11%	5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Albania	72%	12%	3.0%	23%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Iceland	3.6%	19%	< 1%	19%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Montenegro	< 1%	13%	2.5%	15%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Kosovo	1.2%	15%	< 1%	16%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Luxembourg	54%	5%	< 1%	8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Northern Ireland		3.5%	< 1%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Armenia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Liechtenstein		< 1%		< 1%
D	Latvia	81%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Malta		< 1%		< 1%
I	Belarus		2.8%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Andorra		< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
C	North Macedonia	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Azerbaijan	14%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Kazakhstan	98.2%	1.7%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	San Marino
E	Moldova		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Gibraltar
G	Lithuania		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Bulgaria	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Cyprus		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Estonia	94%	1.4%	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%