PL: Liverpool favorites in CL race.

Liverpool are now the favorites to snatch the 4th CL ticket (44%), while Newcastle are down to 22% after only taking 3 point in the last five matches.

The winner between Brentford and Fulham tonight join the race over a ticket to the continental competitions, as detailed below.

Hot Teams
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Fulham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 more than expected
Wolves: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
Newcastle: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 less than expected
Chelsea: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected
Leeds: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 less than expected
Everton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 1.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
63	Arsenal	84.9	+44	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	55%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
58	Man City	83.5	+57	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
49	Man United	73.0	+16	< 1%	99.79%	99.01%	96.4%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	91%
42	Liverpool	65.9	+28	< 1%	95.6%	88%	70%	44%	< 1%	9%	42%	44%
45	Tottenham	65.6	+18	< 1%	95%	84%	63%	36%	< 1%	12%	44%	37%
41	Newcastle	63.3	+23	< 1%	86%	69%	44%	22%	< 1%	19%	44%	22%
38	Brighton	60.0	+16	< 1%	66%	38%	19%	7%	< 1%	23%	38%	7%
35	Brentford	55.3	+5	< 1%	24%	10%	3.8%	1.1%	< 1%	13%	8%	1.1%
39	Fulham	54.9	+0	< 1%	17%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	7%	< 1%
34	Chelsea	53.8	+2	< 1%	13%	4.5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	3.9%	1.6%
34	Aston Villa	50.4	-10	< 1%	3.7%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
27	Crystal Palace	44.1	-13	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Leicester	41.7	-8	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	Wolves	41.4	-20	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	West Ham	39.7	-12	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24%	< 1%
26	Forest	38.0	-34	29%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Leeds	36.4	-18	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Bournemouth	34.1	-36	64%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Everton	34.0	-26	63%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Southampton	33.0	-31	73%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Arsenal	68%	15%
Man City	84%	39%	6%		28%	6%
Man United	100%	35%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	2.2%	< 1%
Newcastle	< 1%
Brighton	11%	< 1%			< 1%
Fulham	1.9%
Chelsea	1.4%
West Ham	24%

Important matches for title race
Fulham vs Arsenal (4.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	44%	51%	64%
Man City	55%	49%	36%
Crystal Palace vs Man City (4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	32%	38%	51%
Arsenal	67%	61%	48%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
94	1.8%	1.1%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%
93	3.2%	1.3%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	5%	2.3%	98.9%	2.1%	1.7%	98.4%
91	9%	3.8%	97.0%	3.7%	1.5%	96%
90	14%	4.3%	95%	7%	2.8%	94%
89	20%	6%	90%	12%	5%	89%
88	27%	8%	84%	17%	5%	83%
87	36%	8%	77%	24%	8%	75%
86	45%	9%	67%	33%	9%	66%
85	54%	9%	58%	42%	9%	57%
84	63%	9%	47%	52%	10%	46%
83	72%	9%	37%	61%	9%	36%
82	79%	7%	28%	69%	8%	27%
81	85%	6%	20%	77%	8%	19%
80	90%	4.8%	14%	83%	6%	13%
79	93%	3.5%	9%	88%	5%	9%
78	95.8%	2.5%	5%	92%	3.9%	5%
77	97.5%	1.7%	3%	95%	2.8%	3%
76	98.6%	1.1%	2%	96.9%	1.9%	1.3%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Bournemouth vs Liverpool (3.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	30%	36%	51%
Tottenham	43%	40%	34%
Newcastle	25%	24%	19%
Tottenham vs Forest (2.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	42%	29%	23%
Liverpool	42%	48%	50%
Newcastle	20%	24%	25%

	Man United			Liverpool			Tottenham			Newcastle			Brighton			Chelsea			Brentford
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
76	29%	7%	>99.99%	1.4%	< 1%	99.9%	1.1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	37%	8%	99.96%	2.3%	< 1%	99.7%	1.9%	< 1%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	46%	9%	99.8%	4.2%	1.8%	99.4%	3.3%	1.5%	98.9%	1.6%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	55%	9%	99.5%	7%	2.8%	98.2%	6%	2.4%	97%	2.8%	1.2%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	98%
72	63%	9%	98.7%	10%	3.5%	96%	9%	3.0%	94%	4.5%	1.7%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	97%
71	71%	8%	96.8%	16%	5%	92%	13%	4.6%	89%	7%	2.3%	87%	1.6%	< 1%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	89%
70	78%	7%	93%	22%	6%	86%	19%	6%	81%	10%	3.3%	79%	2.6%	1.0%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	79%
69	84%	6%	87%	29%	7%	77%	26%	7%	71%	14%	4.1%	68%	4.1%	1.5%	63%	< 1%	< 1%	67%	< 1%	< 1%	68%
68	89%	4.7%	78%	37%	8%	66%	34%	8%	58%	19%	5%	54%	6%	2.1%	50%	< 1%	< 1%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	52%
67	92%	3.6%	67%	46%	9%	53%	42%	9%	44%	25%	6%	40%	9%	3.0%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	35%	1.1%	< 1%	35%
66	95.0%	2.7%	54%	54%	9%	39%	51%	9%	32%	32%	7%	28%	13%	3.8%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	22%	1.9%	< 1%	23%
65	96.9%	1.9%	42%	63%	9%	27%	60%	9%	21%	40%	8%	17%	18%	4.7%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	3.0%	1.1%	13%
64	98.1%	1.3%	32%	71%	8%	17%	69%	8%	13%	48%	8%	10%	24%	6%	7%	1.5%	< 1%	7%	4.8%	1.7%	6%
63	98.9%	< 1%	25%	78%	7%	9%	76%	7%	7%	56%	8%	4.5%	30%	7%	2.8%	2.6%	1.1%	3%	7%	2.4%	2%
62	99.42%	< 1%	22%	84%	6%	4.4%	83%	6%	4.5%	64%	8%	1.9%	38%	7%	1.1%	4.4%	1.8%	2%	10%	3.1%	< 1%
61	99.70%	< 1%	20%	88%	4.7%	1.8%	88%	5%	3.1%	71%	7%	< 1%	46%	8%	< 1%	7%	2.4%	1.6%	14%	4.2%	< 1%
60	99.86%	< 1%	18%	92%	3.7%	< 1%	92%	4.0%	2.3%	78%	7%	< 1%	54%	8%	< 1%	10%	3.6%	1.4%	19%	5%	< 1%
59	99.93%	< 1%	18%	95%	2.8%	< 1%	95%	3.0%	2.3%	83%	6%	< 1%	62%	8%	< 1%	15%	4.6%	1.4%	25%	6%	< 1%
58	99.97%	< 1%	16%	96.8%	1.9%	< 1%	96.8%	2.0%	2%	88%	4.7%	< 1%	69%	8%	< 1%	21%	6%	1.4%	32%	7%	< 1%
57	99.99%	< 1%	18%	98.1%	1.3%	< 1%	98.1%	1.4%	2%	92%	3.6%	< 1%	76%	7%	< 1%	28%	7%	1.3%	40%	8%	< 1%
56	>99.99%	< 1%	-	98.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.0%	< 1%	3%	94%	2.8%	< 1%	82%	6%	< 1%	35%	8%	1.4%	48%	8%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Wolves (2.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Newcastle	72%	59%	53%
Brighton	43%	47%	49%
Leeds vs Brighton (2.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brighton	37%	42%	54%
Newcastle	69%	67%	63%
Tottenham	83%	82%	79%
Brentford vs Fulham (2.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brentford	13%	7%	4.5%
Fulham	5%	8%	14%

	Newcastle			Tottenham			Liverpool			Brighton			West Ham			Brentford			Man United			Fulham			Chelsea
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
67	25%	6%	97.5%	42%	9%	97.5%	46%	9%	98.7%	9%	3.0%	97.2%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.1%	< 1%	95%	92%	3.6%	98.8%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	93%
66	32%	7%	95.1%	51%	9%	95.5%	54%	9%	97.4%	13%	3.8%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.9%	< 1%	91%	95.0%	2.7%	97.3%	1.0%	< 1%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	89%
65	40%	8%	91%	60%	9%	92%	63%	9%	95%	18%	4.7%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.0%	1.1%	82%	96.9%	1.9%	94%	1.8%	< 1%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	80%
64	48%	8%	85%	69%	8%	85%	71%	8%	91%	24%	6%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.8%	1.7%	70%	98.1%	1.3%	90%	3.0%	1.2%	65%	1.5%	< 1%	69%
63	56%	8%	76%	76%	7%	77%	78%	7%	84%	30%	7%	72%	< 1%	< 1%	-	7%	2.4%	57%	98.9%	< 1%	82%	4.8%	1.7%	50%	2.6%	1.1%	54%
62	64%	8%	66%	83%	6%	65%	84%	6%	74%	38%	7%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	-	10%	3.1%	42%	99.42%	< 1%	74%	7%	2.6%	36%	4.4%	1.8%	40%
61	71%	7%	53%	88%	5%	52%	88%	4.7%	61%	46%	8%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	-	14%	4.2%	28%	99.70%	< 1%	63%	11%	3.5%	24%	7%	2.4%	27%
60	78%	7%	39%	92%	4.0%	38%	92%	3.7%	47%	54%	8%	36%	< 1%	< 1%	-	19%	5%	16%	99.86%	< 1%	51%	15%	4.4%	14%	10%	3.6%	15%
59	83%	6%	26%	95%	3.0%	25%	95%	2.8%	32%	62%	8%	26%	< 1%	< 1%	-	25%	6%	9%	99.93%	< 1%	42%	21%	6%	8%	15%	4.6%	9%
58	88%	4.7%	15%	96.8%	2.0%	15%	96.8%	1.9%	20%	69%	8%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	-	32%	7%	4.0%	99.97%	< 1%	37%	28%	7%	4.5%	21%	6%	4.6%
57	92%	3.6%	8%	98.1%	1.4%	8%	98.1%	1.3%	11%	76%	7%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	-	40%	8%	1.7%	99.99%	< 1%	35%	35%	8%	3.0%	28%	7%	2.6%
56	94%	2.8%	4%	99.0%	< 1%	5%	98.9%	< 1%	5%	82%	6%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	21%	48%	8%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	44%	8%	2.3%	35%	8%	1.8%
55	96.5%	2.0%	1.6%	99.46%	< 1%	3%	99.39%	< 1%	2%	87%	5.0%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	23%	56%	8%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	52%	9%	2.0%	44%	8%	1.6%
54	97.9%	1.4%	< 1%	99.74%	< 1%	2%	99.68%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	3.9%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	24%	64%	8%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	61%	9%	1.8%	53%	9%	1.4%
53	98.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99.88%	< 1%	3%	99.85%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	3.0%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	25%	71%	7%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	69%	8%	1.9%	61%	9%	1.4%
52	99.32%	< 1%	< 1%	99.95%	< 1%	2%	99.93%	< 1%	< 1%	96.0%	2.2%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	24%	78%	7%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	77%	7%	1.9%	69%	8%	1.4%
51	99.65%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	3%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	97.5%	1.5%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	24%	84%	6%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	83%	6%	1.9%	77%	7%	1.3%
50	99.83%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	3%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	98.6%	1.0%	11%	1.7%	< 1%	24%	88%	4.7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	88%	5%	1.9%	83%	6%	1.4%
49	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.19%	< 1%	11%	2.9%	1.2%	24%	92%	3.7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	92%	4.0%	1.8%	88%	5%	1.4%
48	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.57%	< 1%	12%	4.6%	1.8%	25%	95%	2.7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	95.2%	2.9%	1.9%	92%	4.0%	1.4%
47	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.79%	< 1%	11%	7%	2.4%	24%	96.7%	2.0%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	97.2%	2.0%	1.9%	95%	2.9%	1.4%
46	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.91%	< 1%	10%	11%	3.5%	25%	98.1%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	98.5%	1.3%	2%	96.8%	2.0%	1.4%
45	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	99.96%	< 1%	11%	15%	4.4%	24%	98.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	99.27%	< 1%	2%	98.1%	1.4%	1.3%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Brentford vs Fulham (4.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Fulham	13%	19%	31%
Brentford	29%	18%	12%
Leeds vs Brighton (2.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brighton	60%	66%	77%
Brentford	25%	23%	20%
Fulham	20%	19%	16%
Everton vs Brentford (2.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brentford	16%	20%	31%
Brighton	70%	69%	66%

	Brighton			Newcastle			Brentford			Tottenham			Fulham			Liverpool			Chelsea			Aston Villa
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
64	24%	6%	98.5%	48%	8%	99.0%	4.8%	1.7%	95%	69%	8%	98.9%	3.0%	1.2%	92%	71%	8%	99.4%	1.5%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	94%
63	30%	7%	96.8%	56%	8%	97.8%	7%	2.4%	90%	76%	7%	97.5%	4.8%	1.7%	86%	78%	7%	98.4%	2.6%	1.1%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	89%
62	38%	7%	94%	64%	8%	95.3%	10%	3.1%	82%	83%	6%	95%	7%	2.6%	77%	84%	6%	96.5%	4.4%	1.8%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	81%
61	46%	8%	88%	71%	7%	91%	14%	4.2%	71%	88%	5%	90%	11%	3.5%	65%	88%	4.7%	93%	7%	2.4%	68%	1.4%	< 1%	68%
60	54%	8%	81%	78%	7%	83%	19%	5%	58%	92%	4.0%	81%	15%	4.4%	52%	92%	3.7%	86%	10%	3.6%	54%	2.4%	< 1%	53%
59	62%	8%	70%	83%	6%	73%	25%	6%	43%	95%	3.0%	70%	21%	6%	38%	95%	2.8%	75%	15%	4.6%	39%	3.9%	1.5%	38%
58	69%	8%	58%	88%	4.7%	59%	32%	7%	29%	96.8%	2.0%	55%	28%	7%	25%	96.8%	1.9%	61%	21%	6%	26%	6%	2.1%	23%
57	76%	7%	45%	92%	3.6%	43%	40%	8%	19%	98.1%	1.4%	39%	35%	8%	16%	98.1%	1.3%	45%	28%	7%	16%	9%	3.1%	13%
56	82%	6%	33%	94%	2.8%	28%	48%	8%	10%	99.0%	< 1%	26%	44%	8%	9%	98.9%	< 1%	29%	35%	8%	9%	13%	4.1%	6%
55	87%	5.0%	24%	96.5%	2.0%	16%	56%	8%	5%	99.46%	< 1%	16%	52%	9%	5%	99.39%	< 1%	16%	44%	8%	5%	18%	5%	2.5%
54	91%	3.9%	18%	97.9%	1.4%	8%	64%	8%	2.2%	99.74%	< 1%	8%	61%	9%	3.4%	99.68%	< 1%	7%	53%	9%	2.9%	25%	6%	< 1%
53	94%	3.0%	14%	98.8%	< 1%	4%	71%	7%	< 1%	99.88%	< 1%	5%	69%	8%	2.4%	99.85%	< 1%	3%	61%	9%	1.9%	32%	7%	< 1%
52	96.0%	2.2%	12%	99.32%	< 1%	1%	78%	7%	< 1%	99.95%	< 1%	3%	77%	7%	2.1%	99.93%	< 1%	< 1%	69%	8%	1.6%	40%	8%	< 1%
51	97.5%	1.5%	12%	99.65%	< 1%	< 1%	84%	6%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	4%	83%	6%	1.9%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	77%	7%	1.4%	49%	9%	< 1%
50	98.6%	1.0%	11%	99.83%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	4.7%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	3%	88%	5%	1.9%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	83%	6%	1.4%	58%	9%	< 1%
49	99.19%	< 1%	11%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	92%	3.7%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	92%	4.0%	1.8%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	88%	5%	1.4%	66%	8%	< 1%
48	99.57%	< 1%	12%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	2.7%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	95.2%	2.9%	1.9%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	92%	4.0%	1.4%	74%	8%	< 1%
47	99.79%	< 1%	11%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	96.7%	2.0%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	97.2%	2.0%	1.9%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	95%	2.9%	1.4%	81%	7%	< 1%
46	99.91%	< 1%	10%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	98.1%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	98.5%	1.3%	2%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	96.8%	2.0%	1.4%	86%	6%	< 1%
45	99.96%	< 1%	11%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	98.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	99.27%	< 1%	2%	100%	< 1%	-	98.1%	1.4%	1.3%	91%	4.5%	< 1%
44	99.98%	< 1%	13%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.43%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	99.68%	< 1%	2%	100%	< 1%	-	99.0%	< 1%	1%	94%	3.3%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Everton vs Brentford (4.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	50%	33%	26%
Leeds vs Brighton (3.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	75%	60%	52%
Bournemouth vs Liverpool (2.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Bournemouth	52%	37%	30%
West Ham vs Aston Villa (2.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	91%	83%	77%

	Southampton			Bournemouth			Everton			Leeds			Forest			West Ham			Wolves			Leicester			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
47	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.4%	< 1%	100%	2.7%	1.1%	100%	7%	2.4%	100%	12%	4.0%	100%	15%	4.6%	100%	29%	7%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.3%	< 1%	100%	4.4%	1.7%	100%	11%	3.5%	100%	17%	5%	100%	20%	6%	100%	37%	8%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	3.7%	1.5%	100%	7%	2.4%	100%	15%	4.4%	100%	23%	6%	100%	27%	7%	100%	46%	8%	100%
44	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.0%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	6%	2.1%	100%	10%	3.3%	100%	20%	5%	100%	31%	8%	100%	35%	8%	100%	55%	9%	100%
43	1.5%	< 1%	99.9%	3.3%	1.3%	100%	2.4%	< 1%	100%	9%	2.9%	100%	15%	4.5%	100%	27%	7%	100%	39%	9%	>99.99%	43%	8%	100%	63%	9%	>99.99%
42	2.5%	1.0%	99.9%	5%	1.8%	99.9%	4.0%	1.6%	99.99%	13%	4.0%	>99.99%	20%	6%	99.98%	35%	8%	>99.99%	48%	9%	>99.99%	52%	9%	100%	71%	8%	100%
41	4.1%	1.6%	99.8%	8%	2.7%	99.8%	6%	2.4%	99.8%	18%	5%	99.9%	27%	7%	99.9%	43%	8%	99.99%	58%	9%	99.97%	60%	9%	99.99%	79%	7%	99.97%
40	6%	2.4%	98.8%	11%	3.6%	98.9%	10%	3.2%	99.2%	24%	6%	99.7%	35%	8%	99.2%	51%	9%	99.8%	67%	9%	99.7%	69%	8%	99.9%	85%	6%	99.8%
39	10%	3.2%	96%	16%	4.5%	95.9%	14%	4.5%	96.7%	31%	7%	98.6%	44%	9%	97.1%	60%	9%	99.1%	75%	8%	98.7%	76%	7%	99.4%	89%	4.8%	98.8%
38	14%	4.5%	88%	22%	6%	88%	20%	6%	91%	39%	8%	95%	53%	9%	91%	68%	8%	96.9%	82%	7%	95.2%	82%	6%	97.3%	93%	3.7%	95%
37	20%	6%	75%	29%	7%	74%	27%	7%	78%	48%	9%	86%	62%	9%	80%	76%	8%	91%	88%	6%	87%	88%	5%	92%	95.8%	2.6%	86%
36	26%	7%	55%	36%	8%	54%	35%	8%	60%	57%	9%	72%	71%	9%	63%	82%	6%	78%	92%	4.3%	72%	92%	4.1%	80%	97.6%	1.8%	70%
35	35%	8%	36%	45%	9%	34%	44%	9%	40%	66%	9%	53%	79%	8%	43%	87%	5%	60%	95.1%	3.2%	52%	95%	3.0%	61%	98.7%	1.1%	48%
34	43%	9%	19%	54%	9%	18%	53%	9%	23%	74%	8%	33%	86%	7%	25%	92%	4.2%	40%	97.3%	2.1%	32%	96.9%	2.1%	40%	99.35%	< 1%	27%
33	53%	9%	8%	63%	9%	8%	63%	10%	11%	81%	7%	18%	91%	5%	12%	95%	3.0%	23%	98.6%	1.3%	16%	98.2%	1.4%	21%	99.71%	< 1%	13%
32	62%	9%	3.0%	71%	9%	2.7%	72%	9%	4.2%	87%	6%	8%	94%	3.7%	5%	96.9%	2.1%	10%	99.34%	< 1%	7%	99.09%	< 1%	9%	99.88%	< 1%	4%
31	71%	9%	< 1%	79%	7%	< 1%	79%	8%	1.4%	91%	4.5%	3.1%	97.1%	2.6%	1.5%	98.3%	1.4%	4%	99.73%	< 1%	2%	99.56%	< 1%	3%	99.96%	< 1%	1%
30	79%	8%	< 1%	85%	6%	< 1%	86%	7%	< 1%	95%	3.4%	< 1%	98.6%	1.6%	< 1%	99.12%	< 1%	1%	99.90%	< 1%	< 1%	99.80%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%
29	86%	7%	< 1%	90%	5%	< 1%	91%	5%	< 1%	96.9%	2.3%	< 1%	99.43%	< 1%	< 1%	99.58%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%
28	91%	5%	< 1%	94%	3.8%	< 1%	95%	3.6%	< 1%	98.3%	1.5%	< 1%	99.81%	< 1%	< 1%	99.83%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.95%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	1.9%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	82%
League cup winners	100%	99.08%	91%
Sixth team	99.93%	88%	1.0%
Seventh team	91%	6%	< 1%
Eighth team	6%	2.7%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 84 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 37

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brentford	55%	22%	23%	Fulham
Bournemouth	20%	21%	59%	Liverpool
Everton	36%	24%	39%	Brentford
Leeds	36%	24%	40%	Brighton
Tottenham	72%	17%	12%	Forest
Leicester	41%	24%	35%	Chelsea
Crystal Palace	21%	21%	58%	Man City
Man United	75%	15%	10%	Southampton
West Ham	49%	23%	27%	Aston Villa
Fulham	28%	24%	48%	Arsenal
Newcastle	62%	20%	18%	Wolves