Wednesday, March 1, 2023

PL: Three teams - one ticket

Arsenal win the league in 56% of the simulations with on average 1.6 points. In the CL race it looks like three teams compete over the last ticket with Tottenham (50%) being the favorites followed by Liverpool (30%) and Newcastle (25%).

Hot Teams
Tottenham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Fulham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 more than expected
Wolves: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 more than expected
Everton: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 1.1 more than expected
Leicester: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
Chelsea: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Newcastle: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected
Southampton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 less than expected
Leeds: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 less than expected



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
60Arsenal84.4+45< 1%100%>99.99%>99.99%99.98%56%< 1%< 1%99.99%
55Man City82.8+56< 1%100%>99.99%>99.99%99.94%43%< 1%< 1%99.95%
49Man United73.9+22< 1%99.88%99.36%97.2%91%1.3%< 1%6%93%
45Tottenham67.2+19< 1%97.2%90%74%49%< 1%10%36%50%
39Liverpool64.8+21< 1%93%82%58%29%< 1%16%46%29%
41Newcastle63.8+23< 1%90%75%50%24%< 1%19%44%24%
35Brighton58.9+13< 1%59%31%14%4.9%< 1%20%41%4.9%
35Brentford55.3+5< 1%26%11%3.8%< 1%< 1%14%8%< 1%
39Fulham54.8+0< 1%20%7%2.1%< 1%< 1%11%10%< 1%
31Chelsea52.9+2< 1%12%3.9%1.0%< 1%< 1%7%3.0%1.5%
31Aston Villa49.2-10< 1%2.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.9%< 1%< 1%
27Crystal Palace45.1-122.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
24Leicester43.2-74.4%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
23West Ham40.6-911%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%24%< 1%
24Wolves39.6-2117%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
25Forest38.6-3426%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
22Leeds37.1-1933%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
21Bournemouth34.5-3762%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
21Everton34.1-2662%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
18Southampton31.3-3283%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Titles
TeamOne TitleTwo titlesThree titlesFour titlesDoubleTripleQuadruple
Arsenal68%16%




Man City75%30%4.2%
19%4.2%
Man United100%39%4.9%< 1%< 1%

Tottenham2.3%< 1%




Liverpool< 1%< 1%




Newcastle< 1%





Brighton22%< 1%

< 1%

Fulham4.3%





Chelsea1.4%





West Ham24%





Important matches for title race
Man City vs Newcastle (3%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Man City48%35%29%
Arsenal51%64%69%
Arsenal vs Bournemouth (2.4%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Arsenal59%46%40%
Man City40%52%58%



ArsenalMan CityMan United
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
941.5%< 1%99.8%< 1%< 1%99.7%< 1%< 1%-
932.6%1.1%99.8%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
924.5%1.9%99.2%1.6%1.3%99%< 1%< 1%-
918%3.2%97.9%2.7%1.1%97%< 1%< 1%-
9012%3.8%96.1%5.0%2.3%95%< 1%< 1%-
8917%6%92%9%4.0%91%< 1%< 1%70%
8824%7%88%13%4.2%86%< 1%< 1%67%
8731%7%81%20%7%78%< 1%< 1%54%
8640%9%73%27%8%70%< 1%< 1%41%
8549%9%64%35%8%61%< 1%< 1%31%
8458%9%54%45%9%51%1.7%< 1%22%
8367%9%44%54%9%41%3.1%1.4%14%
8275%8%35%63%9%32%4.9%1.8%9%
8181%7%26%71%8%23%8%2.9%5%
8087%5%19%78%7%16%12%3.8%2.5%
7991%4.2%13%84%6%11%16%4.7%1.3%
7894%3.1%8%89%4.8%6%22%6%< 1%
7796.3%2.2%5%92%3.6%4%29%7%< 1%
7697.8%1.5%3%95%2.7%2.0%37%8%< 1%
7598.7%< 1%1%96.8%1.9%1.0%46%9%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for CL race
Liverpool vs Man United (4%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Liverpool37%24%18%
Man United90%94%97.5%
Tottenham48%52%54%
Wolves vs Tottenham (3.3%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Tottenham40%47%60%
Liverpool34%31%25%
Newcastle28%26%21%



Man UnitedTottenhamLiverpoolNewcastleBrightonChelsea
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
7729%7%>99.99%1.8%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%99.8%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-
7637%8%99.98%3.3%1.5%99.8%< 1%< 1%99.7%< 1%< 1%99.8%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-
7546%9%99.9%5%2.0%99.5%1.5%< 1%99%1.5%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-
7454%8%99.7%8%3.1%98.6%2.7%1.2%98%2.5%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%-
7362%8%99.1%12%4.0%96.7%4.7%1.9%95%4.0%1.5%96%< 1%< 1%94%< 1%< 1%-
7270%8%98.0%17%5.0%94%7%2.5%91%6%2.1%92%< 1%< 1%89%< 1%< 1%-
7177%7%95.6%24%6%89%11%3.8%85%9%2.8%86%1.0%< 1%82%< 1%< 1%-
7083%6%91%31%7%81%16%4.8%76%13%3.8%76%1.8%< 1%70%< 1%< 1%-
6988%4.8%85%39%8%72%21%6%64%17%4.7%65%2.8%1.1%58%< 1%< 1%56%
6891%3.8%76%47%9%60%28%7%52%23%6%52%4.4%1.6%44%< 1%< 1%48%
6794%2.9%64%56%9%47%36%8%39%30%7%39%7%2.2%30%< 1%< 1%30%
6696.4%2.0%52%64%8%35%44%8%28%37%7%27%10%3.0%19%< 1%< 1%19%
6597.8%1.4%41%72%8%24%53%9%18%45%8%17%13%3.7%11%< 1%< 1%12%
6498.7%< 1%31%79%7%15%61%8%10%53%8%10%18%4.7%5%1.1%< 1%6%
6399.27%< 1%26%84%6%10%69%8%6%60%8%5.0%24%6%2.7%1.9%< 1%3%
6299.61%< 1%22%89%4.6%6%76%7%2.6%68%7%2.3%30%6%1.0%3.3%1.4%2%
6199.80%< 1%20%93%3.6%3.7%82%6%1.1%75%7%< 1%37%7%< 1%5%1.8%1.5%
6099.91%< 1%20%95.2%2.6%3%87%5.0%< 1%81%6%< 1%45%8%< 1%8%2.8%1.4%
5999.96%< 1%21%97.1%1.9%2%91%4.0%< 1%86%5%< 1%53%8%< 1%12%3.7%1.3%
5899.98%< 1%23%98.3%1.2%2%94%3.0%< 1%90%4.1%< 1%60%8%< 1%16%4.7%1.3%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Liverpool vs Man United (2.4%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Liverpool82%71%65%
Man United98.8%99.4%99.83%



LiverpoolNewcastleBrightonTottenhamWest HamFulhamBrentfordMan UnitedChelsea
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
6644%8%93%37%7%93%10%3.0%93%64%8%94%< 1%< 1%-1.1%< 1%83%1.9%< 1%85%96.4%2.0%96%< 1%< 1%85%
6553%9%89%45%8%88%13%3.7%87%72%8%89%< 1%< 1%-1.8%< 1%72%3.0%1.1%77%97.8%1.4%92%< 1%< 1%77%
6461%8%83%53%8%82%18%4.7%81%79%7%83%< 1%< 1%-3.1%1.2%61%4.8%1.7%65%98.7%< 1%87%1.1%< 1%65%
6369%8%76%60%8%74%24%6%72%84%6%75%< 1%< 1%-4.8%1.7%49%7%2.3%52%99.27%< 1%81%1.9%< 1%51%
6276%7%66%68%7%64%30%6%62%89%4.6%64%< 1%< 1%-7%2.6%36%10%3.1%38%99.61%< 1%73%3.3%1.4%38%
6182%6%54%75%7%52%37%7%52%93%3.6%51%< 1%< 1%-11%3.5%25%14%4.1%26%99.80%< 1%62%5%1.8%25%
6087%5.0%42%81%6%40%45%8%42%95.2%2.6%39%< 1%< 1%-15%4.4%17%19%5.0%16%99.91%< 1%54%8%2.8%16%
5991%4.0%29%86%5%28%53%8%35%97.1%1.9%26%< 1%< 1%-21%6%11%25%6%9%99.96%< 1%50%12%3.7%9%
5894%3.0%19%90%4.1%18%60%8%29%98.3%1.2%17%< 1%< 1%26%28%7%7%32%7%4.5%99.98%< 1%47%16%4.7%5%
5795.9%2.2%11%93%3.2%10%68%7%26%99.03%< 1%10%< 1%< 1%22%35%8%6%40%8%2.1%>99.99%< 1%49%22%6%2.9%
5697.5%1.5%5%95.4%2.4%5%74%7%24%99.49%< 1%5%< 1%< 1%26%44%8%4.8%48%8%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-29%7%1.9%
5598.5%1.0%2%97.1%1.7%2%80%6%23%99.74%< 1%3%< 1%< 1%24%52%9%4.4%56%8%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-37%8%1.6%
5499.12%< 1%< 1%98.3%1.1%< 1%85%5%22%99.88%< 1%3%< 1%< 1%24%61%9%4.3%64%8%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-45%8%1.4%
5399.52%< 1%< 1%99.0%< 1%< 1%90%4.1%23%99.95%< 1%2%< 1%< 1%24%69%8%4.3%71%7%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-53%8%1.4%
5299.75%< 1%< 1%99.45%< 1%< 1%93%3.2%22%99.98%< 1%2%1.2%< 1%24%77%7%4.2%78%7%< 1%100%< 1%-62%8%1.3%
5199.88%< 1%< 1%99.72%< 1%< 1%95.2%2.4%23%>99.99%< 1%3%2.0%< 1%24%83%6%4.3%84%6%< 1%100%< 1%-70%8%1.3%
5099.94%< 1%< 1%99.87%< 1%< 1%96.9%1.7%22%>99.99%< 1%-3.2%1.2%25%88%5%4.4%88%4.7%< 1%100%< 1%-77%7%1.4%
4999.97%< 1%< 1%99.94%< 1%< 1%98.1%1.2%23%>99.99%< 1%-5%1.8%24%92%4.0%4.2%92%3.7%< 1%100%< 1%-83%6%1.4%
4899.99%< 1%< 1%99.98%< 1%< 1%98.9%< 1%22%>99.99%< 1%-8%2.5%25%95.2%2.9%4%95%2.8%< 1%100%< 1%-88%5.0%1.3%
47>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%< 1%99.40%< 1%23%>99.99%< 1%-11%3.3%24%97.2%2.1%4%96.7%2.0%< 1%100%< 1%-91%3.9%1.3%
46>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-99.68%< 1%23%100%< 1%-15%4.4%24%98.5%1.3%4%98.0%1.4%< 1%100%< 1%-94%2.9%1.3%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for avoiding relegation
Forest vs Everton (8.4%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Everton27%37%55%
Forest85%71%60%
Southampton vs Leicester (3.4%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Southampton26%15%10%
Leicester93%95.6%98.3%
Wolves vs Tottenham (2.1%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Wolves91%83%77%
Chelsea vs Leeds (2%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Leeds62%70%82%



SouthamptonEvertonBournemouthLeedsForestWolvesWest HamLeicesterCrystal Palace
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
48< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.4%< 1%100%2.7%1.1%100%4.2%1.6%100%8%2.5%100%18%4.9%100%30%7%100%
47< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%2.3%< 1%100%4.3%1.6%100%7%2.4%100%11%3.3%100%24%6%100%38%8%100%
46< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%3.6%1.3%100%6%2.2%100%10%3.2%100%15%4.4%100%31%7%100%46%8%100%
45< 1%< 1%100%1.1%< 1%100%1.6%< 1%100%6%2.0%100%10%3.2%100%14%4.2%100%21%5%100%39%8%100%55%8%100%
44< 1%< 1%100%1.9%< 1%100%2.6%1.0%100%8%2.8%100%14%4.1%100%19%5%>99.99%27%6%100%47%8%100%63%8%100%
43< 1%< 1%99.9%3.1%1.2%100%4.2%1.5%>99.99%12%3.6%>99.99%19%5%>99.99%26%6%100%34%7%>99.99%55%8%100%71%8%100%
421.3%< 1%99.9%4.9%1.8%99.9%6%2.2%99.9%17%4.8%>99.99%25%6%99.98%33%7%99.99%42%8%>99.99%63%8%>99.99%78%7%99.99%
412.2%< 1%99.8%8%2.6%99.7%9%3.0%99.5%23%6%99.9%33%7%99.8%42%8%99.9%50%8%99.98%71%8%99.98%84%6%99.95%
403.6%1.4%98%11%3.6%98.8%13%3.9%98.2%29%7%99.5%41%8%99.0%50%9%99.5%59%8%99.8%78%7%99.8%89%4.8%99.7%
395%1.9%94%16%4.6%96.2%18%5.0%94%37%8%98.1%50%9%96.6%59%9%98.1%67%8%99.1%84%6%99.1%92%3.8%98.4%
388%2.8%86%22%6%89%25%6%86%45%8%94%59%9%90%68%9%94%74%7%96.7%89%4.8%96.6%95.2%2.8%94%
3712%3.7%71%29%7%77%32%7%71%54%9%85%67%9%79%75%8%85%81%7%90%92%3.7%90%97.1%1.9%85%
3617%4.7%52%36%8%59%40%8%52%63%9%71%75%8%62%82%7%71%86%5%79%95.0%2.8%77%98.4%1.3%69%
3523%6%33%45%9%40%48%9%33%71%8%54%82%7%43%88%6%53%91%4.3%62%97.0%1.9%59%99.16%< 1%48%
3430%7%17%54%9%23%57%9%18%78%7%34%88%6%25%92%4.2%34%94%3.3%42%98.3%1.3%38%99.58%< 1%28%
3338%8%8%63%9%11%66%9%8%84%6%19%92%4.4%13%95%3.1%19%96.2%2.4%24%99.05%< 1%21%99.81%< 1%14%
3247%9%2.7%72%9%4.6%74%8%3.0%89%5%9%95.3%3.2%5%97.0%2.2%9%97.8%1.6%13%99.51%< 1%9%99.93%< 1%5%
3156%9%< 1%79%8%1.6%81%7%< 1%93%3.8%3.9%97.4%2.1%1.8%98.4%1.4%3%98.8%1.0%4%99.77%< 1%3%99.98%< 1%2%
3064%9%< 1%85%6%< 1%87%6%< 1%95.8%2.8%1.2%98.7%1.3%< 1%99.19%< 1%< 1%99.39%< 1%1%99.90%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%< 1%
2973%8%< 1%91%5%< 1%91%4.7%< 1%97.7%1.8%< 1%99.45%< 1%< 1%99.64%< 1%< 1%99.72%< 1%< 1%99.96%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-
2880%7%< 1%94%3.7%< 1%95%3.4%< 1%98.8%1.1%< 1%99.78%< 1%< 1%99.86%< 1%< 1%99.88%< 1%< 1%99.99%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points




EuropeEL (or CL)CL
Fourth team100%100%99.96%
Fifth team100%>99.99%1.8%
FA cup winners100%100%68%
League cup winners100%99.18%93%
Sixth team99.92%76%< 1%
Seventh team83%9%< 1%
Eighth team8%6%< 1%


Simulated points for winner: 84 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Man City69%18%13%Newcastle
Arsenal78%14%8%Bournemouth
Aston Villa50%23%27%Crystal Palace
Chelsea64%19%16%Leeds
Wolves33%24%43%Tottenham
Brighton55%22%23%West Ham
Southampton36%24%40%Leicester
Forest47%24%30%Everton
Liverpool54%22%24%Man United
Brentford100%< 1%< 1%Liverpool



 

Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)