PL: Liverpool still in the CL race (34%)

Newcastle (84%) and Man United (81%) have CL spots in their own hands. They need to take six points in the remaining three matches. Newcastle manage to win two games in 54% of the simulation with remaining matches against have Brighton (home), Leicester (away) and Chelsea away. Man United manage to win two matches in 59% of the simulations with matches against Bournemouth (away), Chelsea (home) and Fulham (home). Liverpool win their two remaining matches against Aston Villa (home) and Southampton (away) in 39 of the simulations and when they do that they snatch a CL spot in 64%.

Brighton need another five points to clinch the 6th spot and a seat in EL. Although good form they only do that in 56% of the simulations, with remaining matches against Newcastle (away), Southampton (home), Man City (home) and Aston Villa (away). That gives Tottenham 44% on EL if they win their matches against Brentford (home) and Leeds (away), which they do in 23% of the simulations. Aston Villa have 50% on EL if they win their remaining matches against Liverpool away and Brighton home, which they do in 8% of the simulations.

At the bottom, 34 points give you a fair chance to avoid relegation for Leicester (54%), Leeds (51%), Everton (78%) and Forest (61%). For Leicester to do that they need to steal a point at St James's, which they manage only in 34%. For Leeds to reach 34 points, they need to win against West Ham (awau) or Tottenham (home) which they manage in 45% of simulations. Evertonmanage to take at least two points against Wolves (away) and Bournemouth (home) in 65% of simulations. Forest already have 34 points and avoid relegation in 39% of the simulations when they lose their remaining two matches against Arsenal (home) and Crystal Palace (away). If they draw one and lose one (25%) they avoid relegations in 86% and if they take two points they avoid relegation with 96% certainty.

 

Hot Teams
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 5.0 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Forest: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Everton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.9 less than expected
Chelsea: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Leeds: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected
West Ham: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 less than expected

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

85

Man City

91.3

+66

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

99.16%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

81

Arsenal

85.3

+45

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

66

Man United

71.7

+12

< 1%

100%

100%

99.37%

81%

< 1%

< 1%

19%

81%

66

Newcastle

71.4

+34

< 1%

100%

100%

99.03%

84%

< 1%

< 1%

16%

84%

65

Liverpool

69.1

+29

< 1%

100%

100%

97.7%

34%

< 1%

< 1%

66%

34%

58

Brighton

63.2

+21

< 1%

94%

80%

3.9%

< 1%

< 1%

14%

80%

< 1%

57

Tottenham

60.4

+8

< 1%

74%

13%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

61%

13%

< 1%

57

Aston Villa

59.4

+3

< 1%

30%

6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

24%

6%

< 1%

53

Brentford

54.8

+6

< 1%

1.6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1.6%

< 1%

< 1%

51

Fulham

53.3

+1

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Crystal Palace

46.2

-8

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Chelsea

45.7

-8

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Wolves

42.4

-23

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Bournemouth

41.2

-34

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

West Ham

40.2

-13

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

47%

< 1%

34

Forest

35.5

-33

18%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

32

Everton

34.6

-23

31%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

31

Leeds

33.0

-27

70%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

30

Leicester

32.2

-19

80%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

24

Southampton

25.3

-36

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	99.90%	88%	40%		73%	40%
Arsenal	< 1%
Man United	100%	26%
West Ham	47%

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Chelsea (4%)	Home Win (77%)	Draw (14%)	Away Win (9%)
Arsenal	< 1%	2.1%	6%
Man City	100%	97.9%	94%

Important matches for CL race
Liverpool vs Aston Villa (17.8%)	Home Win (63%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Liverpool	46%	17%	7%
Man United	75%	89%	95.3%
Newcastle	78%	93%	96.1%
Newcastle vs Brighton (13.3%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Newcastle	95%	78%	64%
Liverpool	26%	39%	48%
Brighton	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%
Bournemouth vs Man United (12.4%)	Home Win (30%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (47%)
Man United	65%	75%	95%
Liverpool	46%	40%	23%
Newcastle vs Leicester (11.4%)	Home Win (66%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (15%)
Newcastle	93%	73%	59%
Liverpool	27%	42%	53%

	Newcastle			Man United			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
75	13%	13%	100%	17%	17%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	13%	< 1%	-	17%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	32%	18%	100%	38%	20%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	54%	23%	100%	59%	22%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	62%	8%	96.8%	67%	8%	76%	39%	39%	64%
70	80%	18%	74%	84%	16%	69%	39%	< 1%	-
69	91%	11%	61%	93%	9%	41%	64%	25%	26%
68	95%	3.5%	38%	95.9%	3.0%	18%	86%	22%	12%
67	98.7%	3.8%	15%	99.0%	3.0%	10%	90%	4.0%	5%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Brighton vs Southampton (14.7%)	Home Win (70%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (13%)
Brighton	89%	66%	53%
Tottenham	7%	23%	33%
Aston Villa	3.3%	11%	14%
Tottenham vs Brentford (10.4%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Tottenham	23%	4.2%	1.9%
Brighton	74%	88%	89%
Aston Villa	3.7%	8%	9%
Newcastle vs Brighton (9.8%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Brighton	73%	83%	96.4%
Tottenham	19%	11%	2.4%
Aston Villa	8%	6%	1.2%
Liverpool vs Aston Villa (9.2%)	Home Win (63%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Aston Villa	1.5%	4.4%	25%
Brighton	84%	83%	64%

	Brighton			West Ham			Tottenham			Aston Villa
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
70	1.1%	1.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	1.1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	4.3%	3.3%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	12%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	15%	3.4%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	30%	15%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	47%	17%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	56%	9%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	23%	23%	44%	8%	8%	50%
62	75%	19%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	-	23%	< 1%	-	8%	< 1%	-
61	89%	14%	66%	< 1%	< 1%	-	46%	23%	9%	21%	13%	9%
60	93%	4.3%	39%	< 1%	< 1%	-	73%	28%	4.4%	56%	35%	2.8%
59	98.2%	4.8%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	79%	5%	< 1%	61%	4.7%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Tottenham vs Brentford (27.1%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Tottenham	92%	64%	46%
Aston Villa	16%	39%	50%
Brentford	< 1%	< 1%	7%
Liverpool vs Aston Villa (17.8%)	Home Win (63%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Aston Villa	19%	36%	65%
Tottenham	84%	68%	47%
Brighton	95.6%	95%	88%
Brighton vs Southampton (8.3%)	Home Win (70%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (13%)
Brighton	99.0%	87%	78%
Aston Villa	26%	36%	42%
Newcastle vs Brighton (2.4%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Brighton	91%	95.7%	99.7%
Aston Villa	32%	29%	26%

	Brighton			Tottenham			West Ham			Aston Villa			Brentford
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
63	56%	9%	100%	23%	23%	99.93%	< 1%	< 1%	-	8%	8%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	75%	19%	97.8%	23%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	8%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	89%	14%	96.8%	46%	23%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-	21%	13%	62%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	93%	4.3%	88%	73%	28%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	-	56%	35%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	98.2%	4.8%	37%	79%	5%	46%	< 1%	< 1%	-	61%	4.7%	18%	4.9%	4.9%	26%
58	100%	1.8%	19%	92%	13%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	-	82%	21%	6%	4.9%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
West Ham vs Leeds (21.3%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (19%)
Leeds	17%	28%	73%
Forest	87%	83%	63%
Everton	73%	68%	54%
Leicester	23%	21%	10%
Newcastle vs Leicester (18.3%)	Home Win (66%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (15%)
Leicester	9%	26%	61%
Forest	86%	78%	66%
Everton	72%	69%	52%
Wolves vs Everton (16.2%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Everton	56%	71%	97.1%
Leicester	24%	19%	9%
Forest	86%	81%	72%
Leeds	34%	29%	21%
Forest vs Arsenal (10%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (60%)
Forest	99.6%	90%	73%
Leeds	20%	24%	35%

	Leicester			Leeds			Everton			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
38	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	11%	11%	100%	11%	8%	100%
37	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	6%	98.8%	11%	< 1%	-	34%	23%	99.3%
36	7%	7%	94%	6%	< 1%	-	27%	16%	95.5%	38%	4.2%	96.4%
35	7%	< 1%	-	18%	11%	78%	60%	33%	94%	63%	25%	86%
34	19%	12%	54%	45%	28%	51%	65%	5%	78%	100%	37%	61%
33	53%	34%	19%	50%	5.0%	10%	84%	19%	25%	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	95.1%
League cup winners	100%	100%	81%
Sixth team	100%	100%	< 1%
Seventh team	100%	< 1%	< 1%
Eighth team	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 90 - 92
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 35

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Newcastle	55%	22%	23%	Brighton
Tottenham	53%	23%	25%	Brentford
Liverpool	63%	20%	17%	Aston Villa
Wolves	55%	22%	23%	Everton
Bournemouth	30%	24%	47%	Man United
Fulham	45%	24%	31%	Crystal Palace
Forest	19%	21%	60%	Arsenal
West Ham	60%	21%	19%	Leeds
Brighton	70%	17%	13%	Southampton
Man City	77%	14%	9%	Chelsea
Newcastle	66%	19%	15%	Leicester