Tuesday, May 9, 2023

PL: Liverpool with a 27% chance to reach CL

Liverpool are still in the CL race and have 68% chance if they win all remaining matches, 35% if they draw one match (as detailed in table below). Brighton and Spurs have a head-to-head for the last EL spot, where Brighton have one more match to play but a more difficult schedule making it a fifty-fifty battle. In the bottom we have four teams battling over two spots for new contract. Forest have a slightly tougher schedule but also an advantage with a 3-point cushion down to Leicester and Leeds.

Hot Teams
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 more than expected
Wolves: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Forest: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 1.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Chelsea: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Leeds: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Leicester: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.2 less than expected



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
82Man City90.6+64< 1%100%100%100%100%87%< 1%< 1%100%
81Arsenal87.3+49< 1%100%100%100%100%13%< 1%< 1%100%
65Newcastle72.2+35< 1%100%>99.99%99.83%93%< 1%< 1%7%93%
63Man United70.8+12< 1%>99.99%99.95%99.09%79%< 1%< 1%21%79%
62Liverpool67.9+27< 1%>99.99%99.70%96.4%27%< 1%< 1%72%27%
57Tottenham61.4+8< 1%88%47%1.7%< 1%< 1%41%47%< 1%
55Brighton61.0+17< 1%83%45%2.9%< 1%< 1%38%45%< 1%
54Aston Villa58.0+3< 1%27%8%< 1%< 1%< 1%19%8%< 1%
50Brentford53.6+5< 1%1.1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.1%< 1%< 1%
48Fulham51.6-1< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
42Chelsea46.8-6< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
40Crystal Palace45.2-9< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
40Wolves43.1-22< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
39Bournemouth42.1-33< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
37West Ham41.2-12< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%37%< 1%
33Forest35.2-3437%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
32Everton35.1-2229%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
30Leicester33.2-1761%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
30Leeds33.0-2873%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
24Southampton26.8-3499.93%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Titles
TeamOne TitleTwo titlesThree titlesFour titlesDoubleTrebleQuadruple
Man City98.4%81%34%
64%34%
Arsenal13%





Man United100%26%




West Ham37%





Important matches for title race
Everton vs Man City (9.5%)Home Win (12%)Draw (17%)Away Win (71%)
Arsenal33%22%7%
Man City67%78%93%
Arsenal vs Brighton (7.8%)Home Win (61%)Draw (20%)Away Win (19%)
Arsenal19%5%2.8%
Man City81%95%97.2%



Man CityArsenal
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
9417%17%100%< 1%< 1%-
9317%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
9238%21%100%< 1%< 1%-
9156%18%100%< 1%< 1%-
9065%9%>99.99%26%26%34%
8981%16%74%26%< 1%-
8890%9%74%50%24%10%
8794%4.3%50%71%21%6%
8697.8%3.8%29%78%7%2.1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for CL race
Leicester vs Liverpool (13.6%)Home Win (26%)Draw (23%)Away Win (51%)
Liverpool10%18%40%
Man United91%85%70%
Newcastle98.3%96.2%90%
Man United vs Wolves (10.6%)Home Win (65%)Draw (19%)Away Win (16%)
Man United88%67%57%
Liverpool19%38%47%
Leeds vs Newcastle (4.1%)Home Win (26%)Draw (23%)Away Win (51%)
Newcastle86%92%98.3%
Liverpool33%29%24%



NewcastleMan UnitedLiverpool
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
7519%12%100%11%11%100%< 1%< 1%-
7434%15%100%11%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7342%8%100%28%16%100%< 1%< 1%-
7262%19%100%44%17%100%< 1%< 1%-
7175%13%98.2%53%9%85%20%20%68%
7083%8%90%71%18%84%20%< 1%-
6992%9%83%82%11%62%41%22%35%
6896.6%4.4%62%89%6%39%63%21%21%
6798.4%1.8%43%95.3%6%30%70%8%12%
6699.66%1.3%28%98.1%2.8%14%86%15%4.9%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Arsenal vs Brighton (9.7%)Home Win (61%)Draw (20%)Away Win (19%)
Brighton36%48%72%
Tottenham54%45%25%
Aston Villa10%8%3.4%



TottenhamBrightonWest HamAston Villa
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
666%6%96.4%4.4%1.3%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
656%< 1%-11%6%94%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6418%12%82%19%8%94%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6337%19%74%26%7%82%< 1%< 1%-3.9%3.9%74%
6244%7%58%42%16%60%< 1%< 1%-3.9%< 1%-
6165%21%40%57%15%53%< 1%< 1%-12%8%30%
6082%17%22%67%10%29%< 1%< 1%-31%19%13%
5988%6%9%82%15%8%< 1%< 1%-37%5%2.3%
5896.1%8%1.8%92%10%2.3%< 1%< 1%-59%22%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Arsenal vs Brighton (4.4%)Home Win (61%)Draw (20%)Away Win (19%)
Brighton78%86%96.5%
Aston Villa31%26%17%



TottenhamBrightonWest HamAston VillaBrentford
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
68< 1%< 1%-1.0%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
67< 1%< 1%-3.0%2.0%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
666%6%100%4.4%1.3%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
656%< 1%-11%6%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6418%12%100%19%8%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6337%19%99.89%26%7%100%< 1%< 1%-3.9%3.9%98.2%< 1%< 1%-
6244%7%100%42%16%99.3%< 1%< 1%-3.9%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6165%21%97.6%57%15%99.0%< 1%< 1%-12%8%80%< 1%< 1%-
6082%17%87%67%10%94%< 1%< 1%-31%19%61%< 1%< 1%-
5988%6%75%82%15%70%< 1%< 1%-37%5%31%2.6%2.6%36%
5896.1%8%47%92%10%54%< 1%< 1%-59%22%13%2.6%< 1%-
57100%3.9%14%95.6%3.6%30%< 1%< 1%-78%20%3.7%9%6%3.3%
56100%< 1%-98.9%3.3%6%< 1%< 1%-85%6%< 1%23%14%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for avoiding relegation
Leicester vs Liverpool (17.2%)Home Win (26%)Draw (23%)Away Win (51%)
Leicester72%37%23%
Forest49%63%69%
Everton59%72%76%
Leeds19%28%31%
Leeds vs Newcastle (14.4%)Home Win (26%)Draw (23%)Away Win (51%)
Leeds56%25%14%
Forest50%64%68%
Everton62%71%75%
Leicester32%39%43%
Chelsea vs Forest (11.3%)Home Win (66%)Draw (19%)Away Win (15%)
Forest52%73%94%
Leicester43%35%28%
Leeds31%24%18%
Everton74%68%60%
Everton vs Man City (6.7%)Home Win (12%)Draw (17%)Away Win (71%)
Everton95.7%80%64%
Leicester29%37%42%
Forest54%59%65%
Leeds21%24%29%



LeedsLeicesterForestEverton
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
40< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-2.4%1.8%100%1.4%< 1%-
391.6%1.6%99.9%1.8%1.8%99.9%8%6%99.9%5%3.8%99.97%
381.6%< 1%-1.8%< 1%-10%2.1%99.4%17%12%99.8%
376%4.4%96.2%6%4.7%98.2%23%13%97.2%20%3.4%99.2%
3616%10%83%19%12%93%45%21%85%39%19%93%
3520%3.9%62%23%3.9%75%52%7%73%65%26%82%
3439%18%41%42%20%56%76%23%49%72%7%67%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points




EuropeEL (or CL)CL
Fourth team100%100%100%
Fifth team100%100%< 1%
FA cup winners100%100%94%
League cup winners100%99.96%79%
Sixth team100%99.99%< 1%
Seventh team>99.99%< 1%< 1%
Eighth team< 1%< 1%< 1%


Simulated points for winner: 89 - 92
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 36

Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Leeds26%23%51%Newcastle
Chelsea66%19%15%Forest
Man United65%19%16%Wolves
Southampton40%24%36%Fulham
Crystal Palace57%22%21%Bournemouth
Everton12%17%71%Man City
Brentford52%23%25%West Ham
Arsenal61%20%19%Brighton
Leicester26%23%51%Liverpool



 

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