PL: Brighton with a last-minute winner

Brighton with a last-minute winner have 3-point advantage against Tottenham in the average simulation. It also gave Liverpool some hope to give United a fight about the last CL spot, but Liverpool likely need to win remaining all four matches - or at least take 10 points.

Hot Teams
Bournemouth: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 6.0 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Wolves: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Chelsea: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.5 less than expected
Leeds: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.7 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Everton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

79

Man City

90.2

+66

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

92%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

78

Arsenal

85.6

+46

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

8%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

65

Newcastle

73.7

+37

< 1%

100%

>99.99%

99.70%

96.7%

< 1%

< 1%

3.3%

96.7%

63

Man United

72.2

+13

< 1%

>99.99%

99.96%

98.9%

89%

< 1%

< 1%

11%

89%

59

Liverpool

67.1

+27

< 1%

99.72%

97.6%

83%

13%

< 1%

2.1%

85%

13%

55

Brighton

63.2

+22

< 1%

92%

71%

16%

1.8%

< 1%

21%

69%

1.8%

54

Tottenham

60.3

+8

< 1%

65%

18%

1.4%

< 1%

< 1%

46%

18%

< 1%

54

Aston Villa

59.4

+4

< 1%

41%

13%

1.6%

< 1%

< 1%

28%

13%

< 1%

50

Brentford

54.2

+5

< 1%

2.6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2.4%

< 1%

< 1%

45

Fulham

50.3

-2

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Crystal Palace

46.0

-9

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Chelsea

45.3

-8

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Bournemouth

43.4

-31

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

Wolves

41.5

-23

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

West Ham

39.6

-13

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37%

< 1%

30

Leicester

34.3

-15

30%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

30

Forest

33.9

-35

50%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

30

Leeds

33.2

-29

57%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

29

Everton

32.7

-27

64%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

24

Southampton

27.8

-34

97.9%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	99.06%	84%	36%		68%	36%
Arsenal	8%
Man United	100%	26%
West Ham	37%

Important matches for title race
Newcastle vs Arsenal (6.6%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Arsenal	2.8%	5%	16%
Man City	97.2%	95%	84%
Man City vs Leeds (3.4%)	Home Win (86%)	Draw (10%)	Away Win (5%)
Arsenal	6%	16%	24%
Man City	94%	84%	76%

	Man City			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
94	15%	15%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
93	15%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	34%	19%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
91	51%	17%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	60%	10%	>99.99%	8%	8%	40%
89	77%	16%	92%	8%	< 1%	-
88	86%	9%	92%	23%	14%	14%
87	91%	6%	78%	41%	18%	9%
86	96.2%	4.8%	59%	49%	8%	3.8%
85	98.3%	2.0%	51%	68%	19%	1.7%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
West Ham vs Man United (5.4%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (38%)
Man United	82%	88%	96.4%
Liverpool	19%	14%	6%
Liverpool vs Brentford (4.8%)	Home Win (66%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (15%)
Liverpool	17%	6%	2.9%
Man United	86%	94%	95.8%
Newcastle	95.7%	98.3%	98.9%

	Newcastle			Man United			Liverpool			Brighton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
78	10%	7%	100%	4.2%	4.2%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	19%	9%	100%	4.2%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	25%	6%	100%	13%	9%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	41%	16%	100%	24%	11%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	54%	13%	100%	31%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	65%	11%	>99.99%	48%	17%	99.94%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	90%
72	78%	14%	99.90%	61%	13%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	86%	8%	97.4%	71%	10%	88%	13%	13%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	54%
70	92%	5%	90%	83%	12%	87%	13%	< 1%	-	2.1%	1.4%	35%
69	96.5%	4.6%	81%	90%	7%	68%	31%	18%	20%	3.1%	1.0%	21%
68	98.5%	2.0%	62%	94%	4.4%	49%	48%	17%	11%	8%	4.6%	8%
67	99.40%	< 1%	43%	97.7%	3.4%	37%	57%	9%	6%	14%	6%	3.4%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Brighton vs Everton (8.7%)	Home Win (67%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (15%)
Brighton	80%	59%	48%
Tottenham	13%	25%	31%
Aston Villa	10%	17%	21%
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace (5.8%)	Home Win (56%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (22%)
Tottenham	26%	10%	6%
Brighton	66%	77%	79%
Wolves vs Aston Villa (5.4%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Aston Villa	5%	9%	23%
Brighton	76%	74%	64%

	Liverpool			Brighton			West Ham			Tottenham			Aston Villa
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
70	13%	< 1%	-	2.1%	1.4%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	31%	18%	100%	3.1%	1.0%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	48%	17%	100%	8%	4.6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	57%	9%	100%	14%	6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	75%	17%	>99.99%	20%	6%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.6%	3.6%	86%	1.4%	1.4%	97%
65	85%	10%	98.7%	33%	13%	96.5%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.6%	< 1%	-	1.4%	< 1%	-
64	91%	6%	98.2%	45%	12%	95.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	12%	8%	59%	5%	4.1%	74%
63	96.2%	6%	89%	56%	11%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	-	24%	12%	43%	14%	9%	50%
62	98.5%	2.3%	71%	71%	15%	64%	< 1%	< 1%	-	30%	6%	29%	18%	4.0%	30%
61	99.34%	< 1%	54%	82%	11%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	-	49%	19%	14%	34%	16%	13%
60	99.87%	< 1%	24%	89%	7%	26%	< 1%	< 1%	-	64%	15%	5.0%	50%	16%	4.5%
59	100%	< 1%	6%	95.1%	6%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	-	73%	9%	1.7%	60%	10%	< 1%
58	100%	< 1%	-	98.0%	2.9%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	86%	13%	< 1%	77%	17%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Wolves vs Aston Villa (10.2%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Aston Villa	26%	37%	58%
Tottenham	75%	66%	52%
Brighton	95.2%	94%	89%
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace (9.5%)	Home Win (56%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (22%)
Tottenham	76%	55%	45%
Aston Villa	33%	47%	55%
Brighton	90%	95%	96.0%
Brighton vs Everton (3.9%)	Home Win (67%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (15%)
Brighton	96.5%	87%	80%
Aston Villa	38%	44%	47%
Liverpool vs Brentford (2.2%)	Home Win (66%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (15%)
Brentford	1.0%	2.8%	9%
Liverpool	99.97%	99.6%	98.7%

	Brighton			Tottenham			Aston Villa			West Ham			Brentford
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
66	20%	6%	100%	3.6%	3.6%	100%	1.4%	1.4%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	33%	13%	100%	3.6%	< 1%	-	1.4%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	45%	12%	100%	12%	8%	>99.99%	5%	4.1%	99.5%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	56%	11%	99.95%	24%	12%	97.7%	14%	9%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	71%	15%	97.6%	30%	6%	98.3%	18%	4.0%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	88%
61	82%	11%	95.9%	49%	19%	86%	34%	16%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	89%	7%	84%	64%	15%	64%	50%	16%	46%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.8%	1.4%	53%
59	95.1%	6%	62%	73%	9%	52%	60%	10%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	3.9%	25%
58	98.0%	2.9%	45%	86%	13%	27%	77%	17%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	-	8%	1.9%	14%
57	99.14%	1.1%	22%	93%	7%	9%	88%	11%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	-	17%	10%	2.8%
56	99.84%	< 1%	6%	96.5%	3.1%	4%	93%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	31%	14%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Forest vs Southampton (17.4%)	Home Win (50%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Forest	69%	39%	24%
Southampton	< 1%	1.0%	6%
Everton	30%	41%	44%
Leeds	37%	47%	50%
Leicester	65%	73%	76%
Fulham vs Leicester (10.2%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Leicester	57%	71%	92%
Forest	54%	49%	42%
Leeds	47%	43%	36%
Everton	40%	36%	30%
Brighton vs Everton (9.5%)	Home Win (67%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (15%)
Everton	27%	42%	71%
Leeds	46%	40%	32%
Forest	53%	47%	38%
Leicester	73%	69%	60%
Man City vs Leeds (3.6%)	Home Win (86%)	Draw (10%)	Away Win (5%)
Leeds	39%	55%	81%
Forest	51%	46%	37%
Everton	37%	33%	25%
Leicester	71%	66%	59%

	Southampton			Everton			Leeds			Forest			Leicester
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
40	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.3%	1.0%	100%	2.2%	1.7%	100%
39	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.0%	< 1%	99.9%	2.4%	1.9%	99.9%	4.3%	3.0%	99.9%	7%	4.3%	>99.99%
38	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.7%	2.6%	99.7%	3.0%	< 1%	99.8%	6%	1.5%	99.6%	9%	2.2%	99.9%
37	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.9%	1.2%	99%	9%	6%	98.6%	14%	8%	98.0%	19%	11%	99.8%
36	< 1%	< 1%	93%	13%	8%	93%	19%	10%	92%	27%	13%	90%	33%	14%	98.3%
35	< 1%	< 1%	-	25%	12%	80%	24%	5%	80%	34%	7%	79%	41%	9%	91%
34	1.3%	1.0%	59%	32%	7%	65%	43%	19%	62%	54%	20%	57%	61%	20%	82%
33	4.2%	3.0%	28%	52%	20%	35%	63%	20%	33%	74%	20%	28%	77%	16%	60%
32	6%	1.4%	12%	72%	20%	14%	72%	9%	15%	81%	7%	13%	85%	7%	29%
31	14%	8%	2.5%	80%	8%	6%	89%	17%	4.6%	93%	12%	2.9%	95%	10%	14%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	97.0%
League cup winners	100%	99.97%	89%
Sixth team	100%	99.99%	< 1%
Seventh team	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%
Eighth team	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 89 - 92
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 33 - 35

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Tottenham	56%	22%	22%	Crystal Palace
Wolves	39%	24%	37%	Aston Villa
Man City	86%	10%	4.7%	Leeds
Bournemouth	37%	24%	39%	Chelsea
Liverpool	66%	19%	15%	Brentford
Newcastle	43%	24%	33%	Arsenal
West Ham	38%	24%	38%	Man United
Fulham	49%	23%	28%	Leicester
Brighton	67%	19%	15%	Everton
Forest	50%	23%	27%	Southampton