PL: Bournemout hottest team with a new contract

Bournemouth clinched new contract with a win over  Leeds. Six teams are fighting over the remaining three spots to avoid relegation. Tonight Everton travel to Leicester in a crucial match. It's 48% swing for Everton with 70% if they win and only 22% if Leicester win. West Ham is near a new contract but needs another win to be sure.

The CL race is now practically dead with top-4 95% settled. Liverpool, Brighton, Tottenham, and Aston Villa are battling over the three remaining tickets to Europe - with Liverpool favorites (83%) to take an EL spot, followed by Brighton (53%).

Man City now win the treble in 30% of the simulation - with Real Madrid being the most significant obstacle.

Hot Teams
Bournemouth: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 6.7 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 more than expected
Man United: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Wolves: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
Chelsea: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 7.7 less than expected
Leeds: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.5 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.8 less than expected
Everton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Leicester: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

76

Man City

89.0

+63

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

88%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

75

Arsenal

84.9

+46

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

12%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

63

Man United

73.7

+14

< 1%

100%

99.98%

99.8%

98.0%

< 1%

< 1%

1.9%

98.0%

65

Newcastle

72.6

+35

< 1%

100%

>99.99%

99.8%

97.6%

< 1%

< 1%

2.4%

97.6%

54

Liverpool

64.2

+26

< 1%

96.5%

85%

61%

2.6%

< 1%

11%

83%

2.6%

52

Brighton

61.8

+21

< 1%

83%

54%

22%

1.6%

< 1%

29%

53%

1.6%

55

Tottenham

61.8

+10

< 1%

83%

46%

14%

< 1%

< 1%

36%

46%

< 1%

54

Aston Villa

58.9

+3

< 1%

34%

13%

3.3%

< 1%

< 1%

21%

13%

< 1%

50

Brentford

54.3

+5

< 1%

3.1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2.5%

< 1%

< 1%

45

Fulham

50.8

-3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Chelsea

47.2

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Crystal Palace

45.7

-10

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Bournemouth

42.8

-32

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

Wolves

41.3

-23

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

West Ham

39.5

-13

1.6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36%

< 1%

29

Leicester

35.6

-14

22%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

30

Leeds

33.8

-28

53%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

30

Forest

33.8

-35

61%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

28

Everton

33.0

-27

64%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

24

Southampton

28.1

-33

98.1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	98.1%	78%	30%		60%	30%
Arsenal	12%
Man United	100%	31%
West Ham	36%

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Chelsea (4.9%)	Home Win (59%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Arsenal	17%	7%	4%
Man City	83%	93%	96%
Man City vs West Ham (4.5%)	Home Win (78%)	Draw (14%)	Away Win (8%)
Arsenal	9%	21%	28%
Man City	91%	79%	72%

	Man City			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
94	8%	8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
93	8%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	22%	14%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
91	34%	12%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	43%	10%	99.9%	7%	7%	56%
89	60%	17%	94%	7%	< 1%	-
88	71%	11%	93%	19%	12%	28%
87	81%	9%	81%	32%	13%	20%
86	89%	8%	69%	40%	9%	11%
85	94%	4.6%	60%	58%	18%	7%
84	96.6%	3.0%	43%	70%	12%	3%
83	98.6%	1.9%	30%	79%	9%	2%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Brighton vs Man United (2.1%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Brighton	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	96.3%	98.6%	99.8%
Liverpool	3.3%	2%	1.7%

	Man United			Newcastle			Liverpool			Brighton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
80	1.7%	< 1%	-	1.2%	1.2%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
79	6%	4.6%	100%	1.2%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
78	12%	6%	100%	4.8%	3.5%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	17%	5%	100%	10%	6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	30%	13%	100%	14%	4.0%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	41%	11%	100%	27%	12%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	52%	11%	100%	39%	12%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	66%	14%	99.99%	49%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	76%	10%	99.9%	65%	16%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	84%	8%	99.7%	76%	11%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	62%
70	91%	7%	99%	84%	8%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.1%	< 1%	48%
69	95%	3.9%	89%	93%	8%	93%	8%	8%	20%	1.8%	< 1%	31%
68	97.5%	2.5%	86%	96.6%	4.0%	88%	8%	< 1%	-	4.7%	2.8%	15%
67	99.0%	1.5%	67%	98.4%	1.8%	76%	22%	14%	5%	8%	3.6%	5%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Brighton vs Man United (8.5%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Brighton	70%	49%	38%
Tottenham	38%	50%	55%
Aston Villa	10%	14%	17%
Liverpool	82%	87%	89%
Liverpool vs Fulham (4.6%)	Home Win (71%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (12%)
Liverpool	91%	76%	67%
Tottenham	44%	50%	54%
Brighton	52%	58%	60%
Aston Villa	12%	15%	17%

	Liverpool			Brighton			Tottenham			West Ham			Aston Villa
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
70	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	8%	8%	100%	1.8%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	8%	< 1%	-	4.7%	2.8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	22%	14%	100%	8%	3.6%	100%	5%	5%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	36%	14%	99.5%	13%	4.5%	98%	5%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%
65	45%	9%	99.3%	22%	9%	98%	15%	10%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	63%	18%	96%	31%	9%	91%	29%	14%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.5%	2.6%	86%
63	74%	11%	89%	41%	10%	78%	36%	7%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	-	10%	6%	69%
62	82%	8%	80%	54%	14%	64%	55%	19%	49%	< 1%	< 1%	-	13%	3.0%	48%
61	91%	8%	58%	65%	11%	43%	70%	14%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	-	26%	14%	22%
60	95%	4.2%	34%	75%	10%	22%	78%	9%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	-	42%	15%	8%
59	97.5%	2.5%	18%	85%	10%	9%	89%	11%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	-	51%	9%	2%
58	99.1%	1.6%	4%	91%	6%	2%	95.2%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	70%	19%	< 1%
57	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	4.0%	< 1%	97.6%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	83%	13%	< 1%
56	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	97.8%	2.9%	< 1%	99.4%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	89%	6%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Brighton vs Man United (5.1%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Brighton	92%	81%	73%
Aston Villa	29%	35%	41%

	Liverpool			Brighton			Tottenham			West Ham			Aston Villa			Brentford
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
67	22%	14%	100%	8%	3.6%	100%	5%	5%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	36%	14%	100%	13%	4.5%	100%	5%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	45%	9%	100%	22%	9%	100%	15%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	63%	18%	100%	31%	9%	100%	29%	14%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.5%	2.6%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	74%	11%	99.9%	41%	10%	99.8%	36%	7%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	10%	6%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	82%	8%	99.4%	54%	14%	98.7%	55%	19%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	13%	3.0%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	95%
61	91%	8%	96%	65%	11%	96%	70%	14%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	-	26%	14%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	95%	4.2%	85%	75%	10%	84%	78%	9%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	-	42%	15%	49%	2.1%	1.6%	57%
59	97.5%	2.5%	72%	85%	10%	64%	89%	11%	53%	< 1%	< 1%	-	51%	9%	26%	6%	4.1%	29%
58	99.1%	1.6%	41%	91%	6%	46%	95.2%	6%	33%	< 1%	< 1%	-	70%	19%	12%	8%	2.1%	12%
57	99.7%	< 1%	15%	95%	4.0%	22%	97.6%	2.3%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	-	83%	13%	4%	19%	10%	2%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Leicester vs Everton (22.5%)	Home Win (56%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (22%)
Leicester	91%	71%	50%
Everton	22%	39%	70%

	Southampton			Everton			Forest			Leeds			Leicester			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
40	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.4%	< 1%	99%	1.1%	< 1%	99%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	8%	2.3%	100%	50%	14%	100%
39	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.1%	< 1%	100%	3.9%	2.8%	99.8%	4.2%	3.2%	99.9%	16%	9%	100%	60%	10%	100%
38	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	3.7%	99%	5%	1.2%	99%	5%	1.1%	99%	26%	10%	99.9%	77%	16%	99.9%
37	< 1%	< 1%	-	11%	6%	98%	13%	8%	94%	14%	8%	98%	35%	9%	99.6%	88%	11%	99.6%
36	< 1%	< 1%	80%	16%	4.8%	90%	25%	12%	82%	26%	13%	88%	52%	17%	97%	93%	5%	97%
35	< 1%	< 1%	-	29%	13%	70%	32%	7%	64%	33%	7%	73%	65%	13%	89%	98.0%	5%	86%
34	1.7%	1.3%	48%	43%	14%	52%	52%	20%	39%	53%	20%	55%	75%	10%	76%	100%	2.0%	66%
33	5%	3.6%	18%	53%	10%	27%	72%	20%	18%	71%	18%	28%	87%	12%	47%	100%	< 1%	-
32	7%	1.8%	7%	71%	18%	8%	80%	8%	7%	79%	8%	12%	93%	7%	20%	100%	< 1%	-
31	17%	9%	1%	84%	13%	3%	93%	13%	1.1%	92%	13%	4%	96.5%	3.2%	8%	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	99.4%
League cup winners	100%	99.99%	98.0%
Sixth team	100%	>99.99%	< 1%
Seventh team	100%	< 1%	< 1%
Eighth team	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 88 - 91
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 36

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Leicester	56%	22%	22%	Everton
Arsenal	59%	21%	20%	Chelsea
Liverpool	71%	17%	12%	Fulham
Man City	78%	14%	8%	West Ham
Brighton	43%	24%	33%	Man United