PL: Leicester vs Everton in crucial relagation battle

While the title and CL races are almost determined, we'll have two very important matches for the relegation battle. Leicester host Everton, in what is a more than 40% swing match for Leicester and Everton are down to 15% if they lose. Down on the coast Bournemout can clinch a new contract against Leeds and for Leeds it's a 36% swing if they win or lose. In Liverpool, the reds host Spurs in a match both need to win to stay in the CL race and the loser might get problem in the EL race.

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 5.5 more than expected
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Chelsea: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 7.7 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Everton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Tottenham: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Leeds: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
73	Man City	88.1	+63	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
75	Arsenal	84.9	+46	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
60	Man United	72.8	+14	< 1%	99.98%	99.8%	98.9%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	93%
62	Newcastle	71.8	+35	< 1%	>99.99%	99.93%	99.3%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	93%
53	Liverpool	65.2	+27	< 1%	97.3%	89%	70%	10%	< 1%	8%	79%	10%
54	Tottenham	61.8	+9	< 1%	80%	48%	15%	1.1%	< 1%	32%	47%	1.1%
49	Brighton	60.9	+16	< 1%	72%	42%	12%	1.6%	< 1%	30%	40%	1.6%
54	Aston Villa	59.6	+3	< 1%	47%	20%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	27%	20%	< 1%
47	Brentford	53.5	+5	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
45	Fulham	51.5	-3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Chelsea	47.2	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
37	Crystal Palace	44.3	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
37	Wolves	42.1	-18	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	Bournemouth	41.3	-35	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	West Ham	40.6	-12	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	36%	< 1%
29	Leicester	35.6	-14	29%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Leeds	35.1	-25	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Forest	34.4	-35	59%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	Everton	33.0	-27	71%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Southampton	28.6	-33	97.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	97.1%	75%	28%		56%	28%
Arsenal	19%
Man United	100%	31%
West Ham	36%

Important matches for title race
Fulham vs Man City (6.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	34%	26%	12%
Man City	66%	74%	88%

	Man City			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
94	4.9%	4.9%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
93	4.9%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	15%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
91	24%	9%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	33%	9%	100%	7%	7%	67%
89	48%	15%	93%	7%	< 1%	-
88	59%	11%	94%	19%	12%	41%
87	70%	11%	81%	32%	13%	30%
86	80%	10%	69%	40%	9%	19%
85	87%	7%	60%	58%	18%	13%
84	92%	5%	42%	70%	12%	8%
83	95.7%	3.6%	28%	80%	9%	4%
82	97.6%	1.9%	20%	89%	10%	2%
81	98.9%	1.3%	11%	94%	4.9%	1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Liverpool vs Tottenham (4.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	15%	6%	3%
Tottenham	< 1%	< 1%	4%
Newcastle	91%	96%	96%
Man United	92%	96%	95%
Man United vs Aston Villa (3.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	96.7%	90%	85%
Liverpool	8%	12%	15%
Aston Villa	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%
Tottenham	< 1%	1.4%	2%
Newcastle vs Southampton (3.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Newcastle	96.3%	89%	83%
Liverpool	8%	14%	18%

	Man United			Newcastle			Liverpool			Brighton			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
78	9%	4.6%	100%	3.5%	2.6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	14%	4.7%	100%	8%	4.0%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	23%	9%	100%	11%	3.4%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	32%	10%	100%	21%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	43%	10%	100%	31%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	55%	12%	99.9%	41%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	65%	10%	99.9%	55%	15%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	75%	9%	96%	67%	11%	98%	5.0%	5.0%	61%	< 1%	< 1%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	68%
70	83%	9%	96%	76%	10%	96%	5.0%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	89%	6%	84%	86%	10%	90%	15%	10%	33%	1.3%	< 1%	38%	1.5%	1.3%	29%
68	94%	4.3%	72%	92%	6%	79%	24%	10%	20%	3.3%	2.0%	21%	2.5%	1.0%	16%
67	96.6%	3.1%	59%	95.5%	3.8%	67%	33%	8%	12%	6%	2.5%	11%	5%	2.8%	9%
66	98.3%	1.7%	35%	98.2%	2.6%	49%	49%	16%	6%	9%	3.5%	4%	12%	7%	2%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Liverpool vs Tottenham (12.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	38%	51%	75%
Liverpool	95.8%	87%	73%
Man United vs Aston Villa (4.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Aston Villa	14%	22%	39%
Brighton	44%	42%	34%
Tottenham	50%	47%	41%
Tottenham vs Man United (2.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	66%	46%	36%
Brighton	33%	43%	48%
Aston Villa	16%	21%	24%

	Liverpool			Tottenham			Brighton			West Ham			Aston Villa
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
69	15%	10%	100%	1.5%	1.3%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%
68	24%	10%	100%	2.5%	1.0%	99%	3.3%	2.0%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	33%	8%	99.9%	5%	2.8%	99%	6%	2.5%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%
66	49%	16%	99.7%	12%	7%	97%	9%	3.5%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.5%	1.7%	98%
65	60%	12%	99%	17%	5%	91%	16%	7%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.6%	1.1%	97%
64	71%	10%	96%	28%	11%	83%	23%	7%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	-	9%	5%	84%
63	81%	11%	89%	42%	13%	68%	32%	9%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	-	16%	7%	62%
62	88%	7%	76%	52%	11%	53%	44%	12%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	-	23%	6%	45%
61	93%	4.9%	58%	66%	14%	35%	54%	10%	38%	< 1%	< 1%	-	37%	15%	23%
60	96.7%	3.6%	35%	78%	11%	17%	65%	11%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	-	51%	14%	9%
59	98.3%	1.7%	16%	86%	8%	8%	75%	11%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	62%	11%	4%
58	99.3%	< 1%	5%	93%	7%	3%	83%	8%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	77%	16%	< 1%
57	99.8%	< 1%	1%	96.7%	4.0%	< 1%	89%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	87%	10%	< 1%
56	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	98.5%	1.8%	< 1%	94%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	93%	5%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Man United vs Aston Villa (5.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Aston Villa	40%	50%	69%
Brighton	76%	71%	62%
Tottenham	83%	79%	72%
Liverpool vs Tottenham (5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	75%	83%	94%
Liverpool	99.2%	97%	92%

	Liverpool			Tottenham			Brighton			Aston Villa			West Ham			Brentford
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
69	15%	10%	100%	1.5%	1.3%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	24%	10%	100%	2.5%	1.0%	100%	3.3%	2.0%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	33%	8%	100%	5%	2.8%	100%	6%	2.5%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	49%	16%	100%	12%	7%	100%	9%	3.5%	100%	2.5%	1.7%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	60%	12%	100%	17%	5%	99.9%	16%	7%	99.9%	3.6%	1.1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	71%	10%	>99.99%	28%	11%	99.8%	23%	7%	99.9%	9%	5%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	81%	11%	99.7%	42%	13%	98%	32%	9%	99.3%	16%	7%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	88%	7%	98%	52%	11%	96%	44%	12%	96%	23%	6%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	90%
61	93%	4.9%	95%	66%	14%	89%	54%	10%	92%	37%	15%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	96.7%	3.6%	83%	78%	11%	73%	65%	11%	79%	51%	14%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.4%	1.1%	57%
59	98.3%	1.7%	64%	86%	8%	56%	75%	11%	59%	62%	11%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.3%	2.9%	30%
58	99.3%	< 1%	46%	93%	7%	36%	83%	8%	41%	77%	16%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	1.7%	16%
57	99.8%	< 1%	22%	96.7%	4.0%	17%	89%	6%	21%	87%	10%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	14%	8%	5%
56	99.92%	< 1%	6%	98.5%	1.8%	7%	94%	4.8%	7%	93%	5%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	-	24%	10%	< 1%
55	99.97%	< 1%	-	99.6%	1.1%	2%	96.9%	2.6%	3%	98.0%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	32%	8%	< 1%
54	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.95%	< 1%	< 1%	98.5%	1.7%	< 1%	100%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	49%	17%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Leicester vs Everton (22.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leicester	86%	63%	42%
Everton	15%	30%	61%
Bournemouth vs Leeds (11.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	44%	57%	80%
Bournemouth	100%	99.6%	97.3%
Forest	47%	42%	34%
Everton	33%	29%	23%

	Southampton			Everton			Forest			Leeds			Leicester			West Ham			Bournemouth
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
42	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	1.1%	100%	2.1%	1.6%	100%	36%	9%	100%	46%	13%	100%
41	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	2.1%	< 1%	100%	5%	3.2%	100%	51%	15%	100%	57%	11%	100%
40	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.4%	1.0%	100%	3.4%	2.3%	99.9%	6%	4.0%	100%	8%	2.2%	100%	64%	12%	100%	73%	16%	99.99%
39	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.1%	< 1%	99%	7%	3.9%	99%	12%	6%	99.7%	17%	9%	99.9%	74%	10%	>99.99%	85%	11%	99.9%
38	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	3.7%	98%	11%	3.4%	96%	17%	4.9%	99%	27%	10%	99.5%	86%	12%	99.8%	91%	6%	99%
37	< 1%	< 1%	95%	11%	6%	93%	21%	10%	89%	30%	13%	95%	35%	9%	99%	92%	7%	98%	97.3%	7%	95%
36	1.0%	< 1%	71%	16%	4.7%	78%	34%	12%	73%	43%	13%	84%	52%	16%	91%	96.1%	3.6%	91%	100%	2.7%	78%
35	1.5%	< 1%	52%	29%	13%	54%	43%	10%	50%	54%	10%	67%	65%	13%	79%	99.1%	3.0%	75%	100%	< 1%	-
34	4.3%	2.8%	29%	43%	13%	34%	62%	19%	28%	71%	17%	48%	75%	10%	60%	100%	< 1%	51%	100%	< 1%	-
33	9%	4.6%	9%	53%	10%	15%	78%	16%	12%	83%	12%	23%	87%	12%	33%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
32	13%	4.0%	3%	71%	18%	4%	85%	8%	4%	89%	6%	9%	93%	7%	13%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
31	24%	11%	< 1%	84%	13%	< 1%	95.2%	10%	< 1%	96.8%	7%	3%	96.6%	3.2%	4%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	97.9%
League cup winners	100%	99.8%	93%
Sixth team	100%	99.94%	< 1%
Seventh team	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%
Eighth team	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 87 - 90
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 36

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Tottenham	16%	72%	12%	Man United
Man United	62%	20%	18%	Aston Villa
Newcastle	69%	18%	13%	Southampton
Bournemouth	42%	24%	34%	Leeds
Fulham	18%	20%	62%	Man City
Liverpool	59%	21%	20%	Tottenham
Leicester	56%	22%	22%	Everton