PL: Deciding game at Etihad

The coming match at Etihad is very much deciding the title race with City having 81% if they win and Arsenal 70% if they win. The CL race is almost done, whereas the EL race is wide open with Liverpool (77%), Brighton (60%) and Tottenham (50%) fighting over three spots.

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 6.5 more than expected
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Chelsea: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 7.0 less than expected
Brentford: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Leicester: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Forest: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Tottenham: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
70	Man City	87.1	+61	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	66%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
75	Arsenal	85.7	+48	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	34%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
59	Man United	72.9	+14	< 1%	99.96%	99.7%	98.5%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	94%
59	Newcastle	70.4	+32	< 1%	99.97%	99.4%	96.6%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	86%
50	Liverpool	63.9	+27	< 1%	94%	77%	51%	10%	< 1%	16%	68%	10%
49	Brighton	62.6	+19	< 1%	86%	60%	29%	7%	< 1%	26%	53%	7%
53	Tottenham	62.2	+9	< 1%	84%	50%	21%	2.9%	< 1%	34%	47%	2.9%
51	Aston Villa	58.4	+2	< 1%	33%	13%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	13%	< 1%
45	Fulham	52.5	-3	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Brentford	51.3	+2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Chelsea	49.1	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
37	Crystal Palace	45.5	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	West Ham	41.7	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	37%	< 1%
34	Wolves	40.7	-20	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	Bournemouth	39.3	-36	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	Leicester	35.8	-14	29%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	Leeds	35.6	-25	35%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	Everton	34.2	-24	54%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	Forest	32.5	-38	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Southampton	30.3	-31	92%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	95%	68%	23%		45%	23%
Arsenal	34%
Man United	100%	31%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	36%

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Arsenal (26.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	19%	43%	70%
Man City	81%	57%	30%

	Man City			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
94	2.9%	2.9%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
93	2.9%	< 1%	-	1.3%	1.3%	100%
92	10%	7%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	-
91	16%	6%	99%	5%	3.7%	95%
90	24%	7%	98%	12%	7%	78%
89	37%	13%	89%	16%	4.2%	79%
88	47%	10%	86%	29%	14%	56%
87	58%	11%	71%	41%	12%	40%
86	70%	12%	57%	52%	11%	33%
85	78%	8%	45%	67%	15%	19%
84	85%	8%	30%	77%	10%	12%
83	91%	6%	19%	85%	8%	7%
82	95%	3.5%	12%	92%	7%	3%
81	97.0%	2.5%	5%	95.6%	3.6%	2%
80	98.5%	1.5%	2%	97.8%	2.2%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Everton vs Newcastle (4.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Newcastle	78%	84%	93%
Liverpool	14%	11%	6%
Brighton	10%	8%	5%
West Ham vs Liverpool (3.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	3%	6%	16%
Newcastle	90%	88%	83%
Tottenham vs Man United (3.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	90%	95%	98.3%
Tottenham	5%	1.5%	< 1%

	Man United			Newcastle			Liverpool			Brighton			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
78	11%	5%	100%	1.8%	1.4%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	16%	5%	100%	3.9%	2.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	24%	7%	100%	6%	2.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	34%	11%	100%	12%	6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	44%	10%	100%	19%	6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	55%	11%	99.9%	27%	8%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	66%	11%	99.9%	39%	12%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	75%	9%	98%	49%	10%	98%	2.3%	2.3%	71%	1.8%	1.1%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	74%
70	83%	8%	96%	60%	11%	97%	2.3%	< 1%	-	3.2%	1.4%	67%	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	89%	6%	88%	72%	12%	91%	8%	6%	47%	5%	2.3%	51%	2.1%	1.7%	43%
68	93%	4.1%	76%	80%	8%	81%	14%	6%	32%	10%	4.4%	33%	5%	2.9%	25%
67	96.2%	3.1%	62%	87%	7%	68%	21%	6%	20%	15%	4.9%	19%	8%	2.5%	17%
66	98.1%	1.9%	40%	93%	6%	50%	34%	13%	11%	21%	7%	9%	16%	8%	6%
65	99.1%	< 1%	24%	96.0%	3.2%	34%	44%	10%	5%	31%	9%	3%	24%	8%	2%
64	99.6%	< 1%	10%	98.1%	2.1%	19%	55%	11%	2%	40%	9%	1%	33%	9%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Tottenham vs Man United (7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	64%	44%	34%
Brighton	54%	63%	67%
Liverpool	73%	79%	82%
Aston Villa	10%	14%	16%
Forest vs Brighton (5.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brighton	45%	55%	72%
Tottenham	57%	53%	44%
Aston Villa	16%	14%	10%
Liverpool	82%	78%	74%
West Ham vs Liverpool (4.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	65%	74%	87%
Tottenham	55%	52%	46%
Aston Villa	15%	14%	11%
Brighton	64%	61%	57%
Aston Villa vs Fulham (3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Aston Villa	18%	8%	5%
Fulham	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%

	Liverpool			Brighton			Tottenham			West Ham			Aston Villa
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
71	2.3%	2.3%	100%	1.8%	1.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	2.3%	< 1%	-	3.2%	1.4%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	8%	6%	100%	5%	2.3%	100%	2.1%	1.7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	14%	6%	99.9%	10%	4.4%	99.9%	5%	2.9%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	21%	6%	99.9%	15%	4.9%	99.6%	8%	2.5%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%
66	34%	13%	99.4%	21%	7%	98%	16%	8%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.4%	< 1%	96%
65	44%	10%	97%	31%	9%	95%	24%	8%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.1%	< 1%	93%
64	55%	11%	93%	40%	9%	88%	33%	9%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	3.4%	78%
63	67%	13%	85%	50%	10%	78%	47%	14%	63%	< 1%	< 1%	-	10%	4.6%	56%
62	76%	9%	69%	61%	11%	59%	58%	11%	47%	< 1%	< 1%	-	15%	4.9%	40%
61	84%	8%	52%	71%	9%	44%	69%	10%	33%	< 1%	< 1%	-	26%	11%	21%
60	90%	6%	32%	79%	8%	25%	80%	12%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	-	36%	11%	9%
59	94%	3.7%	18%	86%	7%	12%	88%	7%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	47%	10%	3%
58	96.8%	2.7%	7%	91%	4.9%	5%	93%	5%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	62%	15%	< 1%
57	98.5%	1.6%	2%	95%	3.8%	1%	96.8%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	73%	11%	< 1%
56	99.3%	< 1%	< 1%	97.3%	2.5%	< 1%	98.7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	82%	9%	< 1%
55	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	98.7%	1.4%	< 1%	99.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	91%	9%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Aston Villa vs Fulham (7.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Aston Villa	43%	25%	18%
Fulham	< 1%	1.5%	6%
Tottenham	80%	88%	89%
Brighton	83%	89%	90%
Tottenham vs Man United (4.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	92%	82%	74%
Aston Villa	28%	34%	40%
Forest vs Brighton (3.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brighton	78%	84%	93%
Aston Villa	38%	35%	29%

	Liverpool			Brighton			Tottenham			West Ham			Aston Villa			Fulham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
69	8%	6%	100%	5%	2.3%	100%	2.1%	1.7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	14%	6%	100%	10%	4.4%	100%	5%	2.9%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	21%	6%	100%	15%	4.9%	100%	8%	2.5%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	34%	13%	100%	21%	7%	100%	16%	8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.4%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	44%	10%	99.9%	31%	9%	99.9%	24%	8%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	55%	11%	99.9%	40%	9%	99.9%	33%	9%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	3.4%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	67%	13%	99.7%	50%	10%	99.6%	47%	14%	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	-	10%	4.6%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	89%
62	76%	9%	98%	61%	11%	97%	58%	11%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-	15%	4.9%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	79%
61	84%	8%	95%	71%	9%	94%	69%	10%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	-	26%	11%	68%	< 1%	< 1%	63%
60	90%	6%	85%	79%	8%	84%	80%	12%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	-	36%	11%	48%	1.9%	< 1%	41%
59	94%	3.7%	72%	86%	7%	69%	88%	7%	62%	< 1%	< 1%	-	47%	10%	31%	3.1%	1.2%	24%
58	96.8%	2.7%	53%	91%	4.9%	53%	93%	5%	46%	< 1%	< 1%	-	62%	15%	17%	7%	3.4%	11%
57	98.5%	1.6%	33%	95%	3.8%	34%	96.8%	4.0%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	-	73%	11%	7%	11%	4.3%	3%
56	99.3%	< 1%	17%	97.3%	2.5%	17%	98.7%	1.8%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	-	82%	9%	3%	16%	6%	1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Leeds vs Leicester (17.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	83%	60%	43%
Leicester	57%	73%	90%
Everton vs Newcastle (8.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	67%	44%	33%
Leeds	58%	65%	69%
Leicester	66%	72%	74%
Forest	16%	20%	22%
Forest vs Brighton (6.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Forest	36%	17%	10%
Southampton vs Bournemouth (5.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Southampton	13%	4%	2.0%
Bournemouth	88%	94%	99.0%

	Southampton			Forest			Everton			Leeds			Leicester			Bournemouth			Wolves
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
43	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	1.9%	1.2%	100%	16%	7%	100%	27%	10%	100%
42	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	3.1%	2.1%	100%	3.0%	1.1%	100%	24%	8%	100%	36%	9%	100%
41	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.4%	1.6%	100%	6%	3.1%	100%	7%	4.3%	100%	33%	9%	100%	52%	16%	100%
40	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	99%	4.8%	2.4%	99.9%	9%	3.2%	100%	12%	5%	100%	47%	14%	100%	65%	13%	100%
39	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.8%	1.5%	99%	8%	2.7%	99.9%	18%	8%	99.9%	18%	6%	100%	59%	12%	99.9%	75%	10%	99.9%
38	< 1%	< 1%	98%	4.4%	1.6%	96%	15%	7%	99%	27%	9%	99.2%	30%	12%	99.8%	70%	11%	99.1%	87%	12%	99.6%
37	2.4%	1.6%	90%	10%	5%	87%	22%	8%	94%	36%	9%	96%	41%	11%	98%	82%	13%	95%	93%	6%	98%
36	5.0%	2.6%	73%	16%	6%	67%	31%	9%	85%	51%	15%	86%	51%	11%	93%	90%	8%	84%	96.7%	3.4%	92%
35	8%	2.8%	49%	23%	7%	41%	46%	15%	62%	63%	12%	66%	66%	14%	78%	95%	4.6%	61%	99.2%	2.5%	70%
34	15%	7%	24%	36%	14%	21%	58%	13%	39%	74%	10%	46%	76%	10%	55%	98.7%	3.9%	31%	100%	< 1%	48%
33	24%	8%	9%	49%	13%	7%	69%	11%	19%	85%	12%	23%	85%	8%	31%	100%	1.3%	11%	100%	< 1%	-
32	32%	9%	2%	60%	11%	2%	82%	13%	6%	92%	7%	9%	92%	8%	13%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
31	47%	15%	< 1%	76%	16%	< 1%	91%	8%	2%	96.0%	3.9%	3%	96.3%	3.9%	3%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	98.1%
League cup winners	100%	99.8%	94%
Sixth team	100%	99.91%	< 1%
Seventh team	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%
Eighth team	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 87 - 90
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 36

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Wolves	47%	24%	30%	Crystal Palace
Aston Villa	54%	22%	24%	Fulham
Leeds	45%	24%	31%	Leicester
Forest	29%	24%	47%	Brighton
Chelsea	57%	22%	21%	Brentford
West Ham	29%	24%	47%	Liverpool
Man City	59%	21%	20%	Arsenal
Everton	32%	24%	44%	Newcastle
Southampton	50%	23%	27%	Bournemouth
Tottenham	45%	24%	31%	Man United