Euro: Who will reach the playoff?

It looks like of the 16 League A teams, only Wales will need playoff and they will be joined by League D winners, Estonia and Latvia. In addition a team from League B below outside top-4 will join that playoff. The League B playoff will consist of the most highly ranked teams in list below that do not qualify directly, so currently it looks like Israel and Bosnia will play playoff, while Serbia, Scotland, And Finald likely qualify directly and leave the spots to the teams below, i.e., Ukraine, Albania, and Norway.

In Group C it looks like only Turkey will qualify directly and the four playoff spots will be taken by Georgia, Greece, Kazakhstan, and Luxembourg.

Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League A		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
B	Netherlands	90%	10%	10%
D	Croatia	96.2%	3.8%	3.8%
A	Spain	96.7%	3.3%	3.3%
C	Italy	71%	29%	28%
H	Denmark	95.1%	4.9%	4.7%
J	Portugal	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Belgium	99.30%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Hungary	93%	7%	6%
I	Switzerland	99.33%	< 1%	< 1%
	Germany
E	Poland	77%	23%	21%
B	France	99.68%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Austria	86%	14%	12%
E	Czechia	95%	5%	4.6%
C	England	98.2%	1.8%	1.5%
D	Wales	19%	80%	60%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
I	Israel	42%	58%	58%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	12%	88%	88%
G	Serbia	98.0%	2.0%	< 1%
A	Scotland	97.0%	3.0%	1.5%
H	Finland	73%	27%	14%
C	Ukraine	30%	70%	34%
E	Albania	28%	69%	24%
A	Norway	3.5%	78%	16%
H	Slovenia	26%	36%	6%
B	Ireland	1.5%	13%	1.7%
J	Iceland	6%	1.3%	< 1%
G	Montenegro	8%	< 1%
I	Romania	57%	< 1%
F	Sweden	15%	< 1%
D	Armenia	3.7%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
A	Georgia	2.8%	97.2%	97.2%
B	Greece	9%	91%	91%
D	Turkey	81%	19%	2.1%
H	Kazakhstan	5%	95%	9%
J	Luxembourg	15%	71%	< 1%
F	Azerbaijan	< 1%	24%	< 1%
I	Kosovo	1.3%	2.5%	< 1%
G	Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%
E	Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%
C	North Macedonia	< 1%
J	Slovakia	67%
H	Northern Ireland	< 1%
A	Cyprus	< 1%
I	Belarus	< 1%
G	Lithuania	< 1%
B	Gibraltar
League D		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
F	Estonia	< 1%	95.1%
D	Latvia	< 1%	77%
E	Moldova	< 1%
C	Malta
I	Andorra	< 1%
H	San Marino
J	Liechtenstein

Group	Country	Playoff	2nd	1st	Euro	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
A	Spain	3.3%	41%	56%	98.8%	89%	62%	39%	23%	14%
B	Netherlands	10%	76%	14%	96.6%	88%	61%	38%	23%	13%
	Germany				100%	77%	53%	34%	21%	13%
F	Belgium	< 1%	15%	84%	99.73%	86%	57%	35%	20%	11%
B	France	< 1%	14%	85%	99.87%	84%	54%	31%	17%	9%
J	Portugal	< 1%	< 1%	99.12%	>99.99%	83%	52%	31%	17%	9%
C	Italy	29%	55%	16%	90%	79%	50%	29%	15%	8%
H	Denmark	4.9%	22%	73%	97.8%	83%	50%	27%	14%	7%
I	Switzerland	< 1%	7%	92%	99.67%	77%	42%	20%	9%	3.9%
D	Croatia	3.8%	13%	83%	98.2%	75%	40%	19%	9%	3.6%
C	England	1.8%	18%	80%	99.18%	74%	39%	19%	8%	3.5%
G	Serbia	2.0%	34%	64%	99.10%	74%	37%	16%	7%	2.6%
G	Hungary	7%	58%	35%	95.8%	65%	28%	10%	3.5%	1.1%
E	Poland	23%	58%	18%	85%	58%	23%	8%	2.6%	< 1%
C	Ukraine	70%	26%	3.9%	63%	45%	19%	7%	2.3%	< 1%
E	Czechia	5%	20%	75%	96.4%	56%	21%	7%	2.0%	< 1%
A	Scotland	3.0%	54%	43%	98.1%	54%	18%	6%	1.5%	< 1%
D	Wales	80%	16%	2.7%	49%	33%	13%	4.2%	1.2%	< 1%
F	Austria	14%	71%	15%	90%	48%	15%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Turkey	19%	67%	14%	86%	41%	11%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Finland	27%	51%	22%	81%	37%	10%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Greece	91%	8%	< 1%	54%	29%	8%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Norway	78%	3.2%	< 1%	28%	18%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Georgia	97.2%	2.4%	< 1%	44%	22%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Israel	58%	40%	2.3%	56%	23%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Romania	< 1%	51%	5%	57%	21%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Slovakia		66%	< 1%	67%	22%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Slovenia	36%	21%	4.4%	33%	14%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Sweden	< 1%	14%	< 1%	15%	8%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	88%	12%	< 1%	31%	13%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Albania	69%	22%	7%	36%	10%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Luxembourg	71%	15%	< 1%	19%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Montenegro	< 1%	8%	< 1%	8%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Ireland	13%	1.5%	< 1%	4.3%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Iceland	1.3%	6%	< 1%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Kazakhstan	95%	4.6%	< 1%	9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Andorra		< 1%		< 1%
D	Armenia		3.3%	< 1%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Moldova		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Liechtenstein
F	Azerbaijan	24%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Estonia	95.1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Latvia	77%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Belarus		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Kosovo	2.5%	1.2%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Lithuania		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Malta
A	Cyprus		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	North Macedonia		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Northern Ireland		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Gibraltar
H	San Marino
G	Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 Group A

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Spain	100%	96.7%	56%	4	16	18	19	21	14.9
Scotland	100%	97.0%	43%	12	16	17.8	19	24	8.2
Norway	81%	3.5%	< 1%	4	8	10.1	11	16	-1.1
Georgia	100%	2.8%	< 1%	4	8	9.6	11	19	-3.6
Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1.6	3	13	-18.3

Group B

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
France	>99.99%	99.68%	85%	12	19	20.5	22	24	16.9
Netherlands	100%	90%	14%	5	16	17.2	19	21	11.2
Greece	100%	9%	< 1%	6	10	11.8	13	21	2
Ireland	14%	1.5%	< 1%	3	7	8.6	10	18	-1.6
Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.3	0	9	-28.6

Group C

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
England	>99.99%	98.2%	80%	12	18	19.9	21	24	20.4
Italy	100%	71%	16%	4	14	16.1	18	21	11.3
Ukraine	99.78%	30%	3.9%	6	12	14.2	16	21	1.5
North Macedonia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	6	6.8	8	18	-13.5
Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1.2	3	10	-19.6

Group D

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Croatia	100%	96.2%	83%	5	17	18.5	20	22	14.4
Turkey	100%	81%	14%	9	14	15.2	16	21	3.3
Wales	99.44%	19%	2.7%	4	10	11.8	14	16	0.7
Armenia	3.7%	3.7%	< 1%	6	7	9.2	10	21	-5.5
Latvia	77%	< 1%	< 1%	0	1	2.5	4	15	-12.8

Group E

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Czechia	>99.99%	95%	75%	7	16	17.8	19	22	14.1
Poland	99.99%	77%	18%	3	13	14.8	16	18	6.9
Albania	97.4%	28%	7%	6	11	12.7	15	21	2.4
Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	4	6	7	18	-13.1
Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4	4	5.9	7	16	-10.4

Group F

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Belgium	>99.99%	99.30%	84%	8	19	19.9	22	22	19
Austria	99.96%	86%	15%	10	14	16	17	22	6.7
Sweden	15%	15%	< 1%	3	10	11.8	13	18	3
Estonia	95.2%	< 1%	< 1%	1	3	4.7	6	16	-11.2
Azerbaijan	24%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.6	5	16	-17.6

Group G

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Serbia	100%	98.0%	64%	7	17	18.1	20	22	12.1
Hungary	>99.99%	93%	35%	7	15	16.5	19	22	9.8
Montenegro	8%	8%	< 1%	4	10	11	13	19	-1.5
Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2	5	6.4	8	14	-6.4
Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1	1	3	4	16	-14

Group H

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Denmark	>99.99%	95.1%	73%	11	22	22.7	25	25	22.6
Finland	>99.99%	73%	22%	9	19	20.5	22	27	14
Slovenia	62%	26%	4.4%	7	16	17.7	20	25	6
Kazakhstan	100%	5%	< 1%	9	13	14.9	16	27	-0.5
Northern Ireland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	9	10.7	12	21	-0.3
San Marino	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.3	0	10	-41.7

Group I

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Switzerland	>99.99%	99.33%	92%	10	23	24.8	26	28	23
Romania	57%	57%	5%	8	16	17.9	20	26	6.3
Israel	100%	42%	2.3%	7	15	17	19	25	2
Kosovo	3.8%	1.3%	< 1%	3	8	10.2	12	21	-3.7
Belarus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	8	10	12	21	-9.3
Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.2	4	16	-18.3

Group J

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Portugal	100%	99.99%	99.12%	16	27	27.8	30	30	30.7
Slovakia	67%	67%	< 1%	10	16	17.8	20	28	3.3
Bosnia and Herzegovina	100%	12%	< 1%	3	12	13.9	16	21	1.9
Luxembourg	87%	15%	< 1%	7	12	13.9	16	25	-5.5
Iceland	7%	6%	< 1%	3	10	12.1	14	21	3.5
Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1	1	12	-33.9

Euro: Austria vs Sweden in key match

In Group F, Austria are hosting Sweden in a crucial match for both teams. Austria have 90% clinched qualification if they win, whereas a loss means 50% chance. Sweden must at least draw or their chances are down to 15%, as detailed in table below.

Scotland almost knocked off Norway earlier this week and tonight have the chance to knock out the other contender, Georgia. If they beat Georgia (at home), they have >98% chance to qualify. Georgia need at least a point to challenge Scotland, but are guaranteed a place in League C playoff and good chances there.

Group J is wide open behind Portugal and tonight Bosnia & Herzegovina play Luxembourg with a 20% swing, i.e., difference in chance given a win vs a loss. Meantime, Slovakia play Liechtenstein with a 30% swing. 

Group F

Austria vs Sweden (27.6%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Sweden	15%	43%	70%
Austria	90%	70%	51%

Group A

Scotland vs Georgia (6.3%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (19%)
Scotland	98.2%	91%	79%
Georgia	44%	49%	60%

Group J

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Luxembourg (3.8%)	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	53%	39%	32%
Luxembourg	7%	11%	20%
Slovakia	52%	63%	63%

Group J

Liechtenstein vs Slovakia (2%)	Home Win (5%)	Draw (10%)	Away Win (85%)
Slovakia	30%	39%	59%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	62%	57%	46%
Iceland	11%	9%	6%

 

Group A

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Spain	100%	96.4%	63%	6	16	18	19	21	14.9
Scotland	100%	89%	34%	9	15	16.8	19	24	7.1
Georgia	100%	10%	1.8%	4	8	10.4	12	22	-2.6
Norway	77%	4.8%	< 1%	1	8	9.7	11	16	-0.6
Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1.9	3	15	-18.8

 Group E

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Czechia	99.97%	94%	55%	7	16	17.8	19	22	14.1
Poland	>99.99%	93%	42%	4	16	17.4	19	21	10.3
Albania	95.1%	13%	2.8%	3	10	11.5	13	21	1.1
Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	6	6.9	9	19	-11.8
Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.2	4	16	-13.7

Group F

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Belgium	>99.99%	98.8%	86%	7	18	19.6	22	22	18.6
Austria	99.96%	63%	11%	7	13	14.7	17	22	5.2
Sweden	37%	37%	3.0%	3	11	12.9	15	21	4.5
Estonia	94%	< 1%	< 1%	1	4	5	7	17	-10.7
Azerbaijan	21%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.6	5	14	-17.6

Group G

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Serbia	100%	98.7%	73%	6	18	19.4	21	24	13.5
Hungary	>99.99%	92%	26%	4	14	16.4	18	22	11.3
Montenegro	9%	9%	< 1%	4	10	11	13	19	-1.5
Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1	4	5.9	7	16	-7.8
Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.2	4	17	-15.5

 Group J

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Portugal	100%	99.87%	98.4%	14	26	27.2	30	30	31.4
Slovakia	55%	55%	1.2%	7	16	17.4	19	28	4.8
Bosnia and Herzegovina	100%	34%	< 1%	4	14	16.1	18	24	5.3
Iceland	8%	6%	< 1%	3	10	12.5	15	24	2.8
Luxembourg	86%	4.9%	< 1%	4	9	11.5	14	25	-8.8
Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1.2	2	12	-35.4

Euro: Turkey vs Wales in key match

 Turkey play Wales in a key match. The winner has >85% to qualify whereas the loser has <50%. 

In Group H, Denmark travel to Slovenia and a win there would practically clinch a place in Euro 24. Slovenia would very much need a point in their race against Finland.

Group D

Turkey vs Wales (20.9%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Turkey	86%	62%	43%
Wales	49%	68%	85%

Group H

Slovenia vs Denmark (5.3%)	Home Win (18%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (62%)
Slovenia	54%	35%	26%
Denmark	94%	97.9%	99.63%
Finland	73%	81%	85%

Group B

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
France	>99.99%	97.9%	80%	10	19	20	21	24	18
Netherlands	100%	89%	19%	4	16	17.2	19	21	11.2
Greece	100%	12%	1.6%	6	10	12.1	13	24	1
Ireland	24%	1.4%	< 1%	0	7	8.5	10	18	-0.9
Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.4	0	10	-29.4

 Group C

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
England	>99.99%	96.9%	76%	9	18	19.5	21	24	15.7
Italy	100%	72%	19%	3	14	16.1	18	21	11.3
Ukraine	99.69%	30%	4.8%	3	12	14	16	21	3.9
North Macedonia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	6	7	9	21	-8.9
Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1.3	3	12	-22

Group D

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Croatia	100%	96.9%	82%	6	17	18.5	20	22	14.4
Turkey	100%	51%	7%	6	12	13.6	15	21	1.3
Wales	99.54%	49%	11%	4	11	13.1	15	19	2.7
Armenia	3.4%	3.4%	< 1%	3	6	8.2	10	21	-5.5
Latvia	80%	< 1%	< 1%	0	1	3.3	4	16	-12.9

Group H

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Denmark	100%	96.0%	79%	12	22	23.8	25	27	23.7
Finland	>99.99%	75%	16%	8	19	20.4	22	27	13.2
Slovenia	68%	24%	4.3%	6	16	17.4	19	27	5
Northern Ireland	2.7%	2.7%	< 1%	3	11	12.8	15	24	1.8
Kazakhstan	100%	1.9%	< 1%	6	11	12.6	14	27	-2.7
San Marino	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.3	0	9	-41

Group I

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Switzerland	100%	99.68%	96.2%	12	25	26.3	28	30	25.1
Romania	51%	51%	2.6%	7	15	17.2	19	28	4.2
Israel	100%	45%	1.1%	4	15	16.7	19	25	4.1
Kosovo	6%	4.5%	< 1%	3	10	11.6	13	24	-2.7
Belarus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	6	8.3	10	21	-10.3
Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.4	5	16	-20.4