Euro: Turkey vs Wales in key match

 Turkey play Wales in a key match. The winner has >85% to qualify whereas the loser has <50%. 

In Group H, Denmark travel to Slovenia and a win there would practically clinch a place in Euro 24. Slovenia would very much need a point in their race against Finland.

Group D

Turkey vs Wales (20.9%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Turkey	86%	62%	43%
Wales	49%	68%	85%

Group H

Slovenia vs Denmark (5.3%)	Home Win (18%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (62%)
Slovenia	54%	35%	26%
Denmark	94%	97.9%	99.63%
Finland	73%	81%	85%

Group B

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
France	>99.99%	97.9%	80%	10	19	20	21	24	18
Netherlands	100%	89%	19%	4	16	17.2	19	21	11.2
Greece	100%	12%	1.6%	6	10	12.1	13	24	1
Ireland	24%	1.4%	< 1%	0	7	8.5	10	18	-0.9
Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.4	0	10	-29.4

 Group C

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
England	>99.99%	96.9%	76%	9	18	19.5	21	24	15.7
Italy	100%	72%	19%	3	14	16.1	18	21	11.3
Ukraine	99.69%	30%	4.8%	3	12	14	16	21	3.9
North Macedonia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	6	7	9	21	-8.9
Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1.3	3	12	-22

Group D

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Croatia	100%	96.9%	82%	6	17	18.5	20	22	14.4
Turkey	100%	51%	7%	6	12	13.6	15	21	1.3
Wales	99.54%	49%	11%	4	11	13.1	15	19	2.7
Armenia	3.4%	3.4%	< 1%	3	6	8.2	10	21	-5.5
Latvia	80%	< 1%	< 1%	0	1	3.3	4	16	-12.9

Group H

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Denmark	100%	96.0%	79%	12	22	23.8	25	27	23.7
Finland	>99.99%	75%	16%	8	19	20.4	22	27	13.2
Slovenia	68%	24%	4.3%	6	16	17.4	19	27	5
Northern Ireland	2.7%	2.7%	< 1%	3	11	12.8	15	24	1.8
Kazakhstan	100%	1.9%	< 1%	6	11	12.6	14	27	-2.7
San Marino	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.3	0	9	-41

Group I

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Switzerland	100%	99.68%	96.2%	12	25	26.3	28	30	25.1
Romania	51%	51%	2.6%	7	15	17.2	19	28	4.2
Israel	100%	45%	1.1%	4	15	16.7	19	25	4.1
Kosovo	6%	4.5%	< 1%	3	10	11.6	13	24	-2.7
Belarus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	6	8.3	10	21	-10.3
Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.4	5	16	-20.4