Euro: Austria vs Sweden in key match

In Group F, Austria are hosting Sweden in a crucial match for both teams. Austria have 90% clinched qualification if they win, whereas a loss means 50% chance. Sweden must at least draw or their chances are down to 15%, as detailed in table below.

Scotland almost knocked off Norway earlier this week and tonight have the chance to knock out the other contender, Georgia. If they beat Georgia (at home), they have >98% chance to qualify. Georgia need at least a point to challenge Scotland, but are guaranteed a place in League C playoff and good chances there.

Group J is wide open behind Portugal and tonight Bosnia & Herzegovina play Luxembourg with a 20% swing, i.e., difference in chance given a win vs a loss. Meantime, Slovakia play Liechtenstein with a 30% swing. 

Group F

Austria vs Sweden (27.6%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Sweden	15%	43%	70%
Austria	90%	70%	51%

Group A

Scotland vs Georgia (6.3%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (19%)
Scotland	98.2%	91%	79%
Georgia	44%	49%	60%

Group J

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Luxembourg (3.8%)	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	53%	39%	32%
Luxembourg	7%	11%	20%
Slovakia	52%	63%	63%

Group J

Liechtenstein vs Slovakia (2%)	Home Win (5%)	Draw (10%)	Away Win (85%)
Slovakia	30%	39%	59%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	62%	57%	46%
Iceland	11%	9%	6%

 

Group A

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Spain	100%	96.4%	63%	6	16	18	19	21	14.9
Scotland	100%	89%	34%	9	15	16.8	19	24	7.1
Georgia	100%	10%	1.8%	4	8	10.4	12	22	-2.6
Norway	77%	4.8%	< 1%	1	8	9.7	11	16	-0.6
Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1.9	3	15	-18.8

 Group E

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Czechia	99.97%	94%	55%	7	16	17.8	19	22	14.1
Poland	>99.99%	93%	42%	4	16	17.4	19	21	10.3
Albania	95.1%	13%	2.8%	3	10	11.5	13	21	1.1
Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	6	6.9	9	19	-11.8
Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.2	4	16	-13.7

Group F

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Belgium	>99.99%	98.8%	86%	7	18	19.6	22	22	18.6
Austria	99.96%	63%	11%	7	13	14.7	17	22	5.2
Sweden	37%	37%	3.0%	3	11	12.9	15	21	4.5
Estonia	94%	< 1%	< 1%	1	4	5	7	17	-10.7
Azerbaijan	21%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.6	5	14	-17.6

Group G

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Serbia	100%	98.7%	73%	6	18	19.4	21	24	13.5
Hungary	>99.99%	92%	26%	4	14	16.4	18	22	11.3
Montenegro	9%	9%	< 1%	4	10	11	13	19	-1.5
Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1	4	5.9	7	16	-7.8
Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.2	4	17	-15.5

 Group J

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Portugal	100%	99.87%	98.4%	14	26	27.2	30	30	31.4
Slovakia	55%	55%	1.2%	7	16	17.4	19	28	4.8
Bosnia and Herzegovina	100%	34%	< 1%	4	14	16.1	18	24	5.3
Iceland	8%	6%	< 1%	3	10	12.5	15	24	2.8
Luxembourg	86%	4.9%	< 1%	4	9	11.5	14	25	-8.8
Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1.2	2	12	-35.4