Euro: Analysis after Match Day 3

Group A

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Spain	100%	96.4%	63%	5	16	18	19	21	14.9
Scotland	100%	89%	34%	9	15	16.8	19	24	7.2
Georgia	100%	10%	1.8%	4	8	10.4	12	22	-2.6
Norway	83%	4.8%	< 1%	1	8	9.7	11	16	-0.6
Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1.9	3	15	-18.8

Scotland have started with three consecutive wins including a win against Spain and Norway away. Spain is expected to take the other spot leading to direct qualification, leaving Georgi's and Norway's chances small. Norway dropped a 1-0 lead at home against Scotland to a 1-2 loss, which might turn out crucial when we summarize the group in November.

 Group B

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
France	>99.99%	97.9%	80%	9	19	20	21	24	18
Netherlands	100%	89%	18%	4	16	17.2	19	21	11.2
Greece	100%	12%	1.6%	6	10	12.1	13	24	1
Ireland	24%	1.4%	< 1%	0	7	8.5	10	18	-0.8
Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.4	0	9	-29.4

France and Netherlands are expected to take the two spots. Greece took an important win against Ireland, making the main challenger in the group.

Group C

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
England	>99.99%	96.9%	76%	9	18	19.5	21	24	15.7
Italy	100%	72%	19%	4	14	16.1	18	21	11.3
Ukraine	99.70%	30%	4.8%	3	12	14	16	21	3.9
North Macedonia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	6	7	9	21	-8.9
Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1.3	3	12	-22

England and Italy are the favourites. Ukraine turned around a 0-2 deficit against North Macedonia and won the must-win game, which gives them hope against Italy.

Group D

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Croatia	100%	96.9%	82%	6	17	18.5	20	22	14.4
Turkey	100%	51%	7%	6	12	13.6	15	21	1.3
Wales	99.53%	49%	11%	4	11	13.1	15	19	2.7
Armenia	3.3%	3.3%	< 1%	3	6	8.2	10	21	-5.5
Latvia	81%	< 1%	< 1%	0	1	3.3	4	16	-12.8

Croatia are favourites to win the group, while Turkey and Wales battle over the second spot and they play in Turkey on Monday.

Group E

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Czechia	99.97%	94%	55%	7	16	17.8	19	22	14.1
Poland	>99.99%	93%	42%	4	16	17.4	19	21	10.3
Albania	96.6%	12%	2.7%	3	10	11.5	13	21	1.1
Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	6	6.9	9	19	-11.8
Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.2	4	14	-13.7

 Czechia and Poland are favourites to take the two spots.

Group F

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Belgium	100%	98.8%	86%	7	18	19.6	22	22	18.6
Austria	99.96%	64%	11%	7	13	14.7	17	22	5.2
Sweden	37%	37%	3.1%	3	11	12.9	15	21	4.5
Estonia	95.8%	< 1%	< 1%	1	4	5	7	19	-10.7
Azerbaijan	14%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.6	5	16	-17.6

Austria took a bonus point in Brussels making them the favourite against Sweden in taking the second spot behind Belgium. Austria can kill the group on Tuesday with a win against Sweden.

Group G

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Serbia	100%	98.7%	73%	7	18	19.4	21	24	13.5
Hungary	>99.99%	92%	27%	4	14	16.4	18	22	11.3
Montenegro	9%	8%	< 1%	4	10	11	13	19	-1.5
Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1	4	5.9	7	16	-7.8
Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.2	4	17	-15.5

Serbia and Hungary are likely to take the two spots. Hungary drew away against Montenegro, giving Montenegro some (8%) hope.

Group H

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Denmark	>99.99%	96.0%	79%	11	22	23.8	25	27	23.7
Finland	>99.99%	75%	16%	8	19	20.4	22	27	13.2
Slovenia	68%	24%	4.4%	6	16	17.4	19	27	5
Northern Ireland	2.7%	2.7%	< 1%	3	11	12.8	15	24	1.8
Kazakhstan	100%	1.9%	< 1%	6	11	12.6	14	27	-2.7
San Marino	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.3	0	9	-41

Finland won the important home game against Slovenia giving the advantage in the race behind favourites Denmark.

 Group I

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Switzerland	>99.99%	99.67%	96.2%	12	25	26.3	28	30	25.1
Romania	51%	51%	2.6%	7	15	17.2	19	28	4.2
Israel	100%	45%	1.1%	4	15	16.7	19	25	4.1
Kosovo	6%	4.4%	< 1%	3	10	11.6	13	24	-2.7
Belarus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	6	8.3	10	21	-10.3
Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.4	5	17	-20.5

Romania dropped two points away against Kosovo, making it a close race against Israel.

 Group J

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Portugal	100%	99.89%	98.4%	13	26	27.2	30	30	31.4
Slovakia	55%	55%	1.2%	7	16	17.4	19	28	4.8
Bosnia and Herzegovina	100%	34%	< 1%	3	14	16.1	18	24	5.3
Iceland	10%	6%	< 1%	3	10	12.5	15	24	2.7
Luxembourg	63%	4.5%	< 1%	1	9	11.2	13	25	-8
Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1.4	3	13	-36.2

 Portugal have almost clinched qualifications after winning against Bosnia & Herzegovina. Slovakia are small favourites ahead of Bosnia to take the second spot.