Euro: Finland and Slovenia in crucial match

Groups B, C, D, H, and I are playing tonight and a couple of important
matches. In group H, Finland play Slovenia, which is important to
decide who will be runner-up in the group as Denmark are likely (78%)
to win the group. Finland have 82% chance to qualify if they win and
only 46% if they lose. Slovenia have 77% if they win and only 35% if
they lose, as detailed in table below.

In Group I, Romania, Israel, and Kosovo are fighting behind
Switzerland. Kosovo host Romania tonight in a match they cannot afford
to lose. Romania have 73% chance to qualify if they win and only 35%
if they lose, as detailed in the table below.

Group H

Finland vs Slovenia (16.4%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (24%)
Slovenia	35%	55%	77%
Finland	82%	63%	46%

Group I

Kosovo vs Romania (8.9%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Romania	45%	57%	73%
Kosovo	16%	6%	1.7%
Israel	52%	50%	42%

Group I

Belarus vs Israel (3.8%)	Home Win (26%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (51%)
Israel	38%	44%	55%
Belarus	4.4%	1.2%	< 1%
Romania	66%	63%	52%

 

Group B

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
France	>99.99%	98.3%	80%	7	18	19.9	21	24	19.4
Netherlands	100%	90%	19%	4	16	17.2	19	21	11.2
Greece	100%	8%	1.1%	3	9	10.9	13	24	0.6
Ireland	28%	3.4%	< 1%	0	8	9.5	11	21	-0.4
Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.5	1	9	-30.8

Group C

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
England	99.99%	96.8%	75%	7	18	19.3	21	24	14.6
Italy	100%	77%	21%	3	14	16.1	18	21	11.3
Ukraine	98.8%	24%	3.8%	0	11	12.9	15	21	3.7
North Macedonia	1.7%	1.7%	< 1%	3	6	7.9	10	22	-8.7
Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1.5	3	15	-20.9

 

Group D

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Croatia	100%	96.3%	70%	5	17	18.5	20	22	14.4
Wales	99.78%	75%	26%	4	14	15.7	18	22	6.9
Turkey	100%	28%	4.5%	3	11	12.8	15	21	1.5
Armenia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	4	5.5	7	21	-9.7
Latvia	86%	< 1%	< 1%	0	2	3.9	6	18	-13.1

Group H

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Denmark	>99.99%	95.3%	78%	10	22	23.5	25	27	25.4
Finland	99.97%	57%	12%	5	17	19.3	21	27	11.9
Slovenia	77%	42%	10%	6	16	18.4	21	30	6.3
Northern Ireland	3.9%	3.9%	< 1%	3	11	13	15	27	0.2
Kazakhstan	100%	1.7%	< 1%	3	10	12.3	14	27	-3.1
San Marino	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.5	1	10	-40.6

Group I

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Switzerland	100%	99.66%	95.4%	11	25	26.2	28	30	27.8
Romania	58%	58%	3.7%	6	15	17.6	20	30	4.2
Israel	100%	32%	< 1%	2	13	15.5	18	25	3.7
Kosovo	9%	8%	< 1%	2	10	12	14	26	-2.6
Belarus	1.6%	1.6%	< 1%	0	7	9.3	11	24	-9.9
Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.5	5	19	-23.1