Sunday, August 27, 2023

PL: Sheffield United vs Everton in important relegation match

 Sheffield United and Everton in an important match in the bottom of the table.

Hot Teams
West Ham: 7 points in the last 3 matches, 3.0 more than expected
Tottenham: 7 points in the last 3 matches, 2.9 more than expected
Man City: 9 points in the last 3 matches, 2.2 more than expected
Liverpool: 7 points in the last 3 matches, 1.7 more than expected
Aston Villa: 6 points in the last 3 matches, 1.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 0 points in the last 3 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Sheffield United: 0 points in the last 3 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Burnley: 0 points in the last 2 matches, 2.0 less than expected
Bournemouth: 1 point in the last 3 matches, 1.9 less than expected
Luton: 0 points in the last 2 matches, 1.1 less than expected



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
9Man City87.5+58< 1%>99.99%99.99%99.96%99.86%89%< 1%< 1%99.91%
7Liverpool73.2+32< 1%97.4%95.3%92%85%7%1.7%7%89%
7Arsenal69.2+25< 1%92%87%80%69%2.6%4.6%15%72%
6Man United63.3+14< 1%74%63%51%37%< 1%10%26%36%
3Newcastle62.3+20< 1%71%60%47%33%< 1%11%23%37%
6Aston Villa59.1+9< 1%53%41%29%18%< 1%8%39%18%
7Tottenham58.9+9< 1%52%40%28%17%< 1%11%22%17%
6Brighton58.0+9< 1%47%35%24%15%< 1%10%18%21%
5Brentford57.1+9< 1%42%31%21%12%< 1%11%17%12%
7West Ham54.6+2< 1%29%20%13%7%< 1%9%13%7%
4Chelsea52.2+01.6%20%13%8%3.8%< 1%7%9%6%
4Crystal Palace49.6-53.4%11%7%3.7%1.7%< 1%4.8%5.0%1.7%
4Fulham47.4-116%7%3.8%1.9%< 1%< 1%3.2%3.5%< 1%
3Wolves44.5-1512%3.0%1.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.0%1.4%< 1%
0Burnley43.4-1616%2.3%1.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.9%1.4%< 1%
3Forest39.6-2231%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.6%< 1%
0Everton39.3-2232%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%4.3%< 1%
1Bournemouth36.0-2851%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.3%< 1%
0Sheffield United33.4-3066%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.1%< 1%
0Luton31.1-4078%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Titles
TeamOne TitleTwo titlesThree titlesFour titlesDoubleTrebleQuadruple
Man City97.7%74%32%6%38%15%6%
Liverpool47%9%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Arsenal28%3.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Man United13%< 1%< 1%
< 1%

Newcastle15%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Aston Villa33%1.8%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Tottenham8%< 1%< 1%
< 1%

Brighton14%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Brentford4.9%< 1%< 1%
< 1%

West Ham3.9%< 1%< 1%
< 1%

Chelsea6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Crystal Palace2.4%< 1%< 1%
< 1%

Fulham2.3%< 1%< 1%
< 1%

Wolves1.2%< 1%< 1%
< 1%

Burnley1.6%< 1%< 1%
< 1%

Forest1.9%< 1%




Everton4.8%< 1%




Bournemouth1.6%< 1%




Sheffield United1.4%< 1%




Luton< 1%< 1%




Important matches for CL race
Arsenal vs Man United (2.4%)Home Win (54%)Draw (22%)Away Win (23%)
Man United31%37%47%
Arsenal77%69%63%



LiverpoolArsenalNewcastleMan UnitedBrightonAston VillaTottenhamBrentfordWest HamChelseaCrystal Palace
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
8019%3.6%100%8%1.9%>99.99%1.0%< 1%100%1.4%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7923%4.1%100%10%2.3%>99.99%1.4%< 1%100%2.0%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7828%4.5%>99.99%13%2.7%>99.99%2.0%< 1%99.9%2.8%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-
7733%4.8%>99.99%16%3.1%99.99%2.8%< 1%99.9%3.8%1.0%99.9%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%99.8%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-
7638%5%99.98%20%3.6%99.9%3.8%1.0%99.9%5%1.3%99.8%< 1%< 1%99.8%1.4%< 1%99.7%1.3%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%
7543%5%99.95%24%4.0%99.9%5%1.3%99.6%7%1.6%99.5%1.4%< 1%99%2.0%< 1%99%1.8%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%100%
7449%5%99.8%28%4.4%99.7%7%1.6%99.1%9%1.9%99.0%1.9%< 1%99%2.7%< 1%98%2.5%< 1%99%1.4%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%98%
7354%5%99.6%33%4.8%99.2%9%2.0%98.5%11%2.3%97.9%2.6%< 1%98%3.7%< 1%97%3.4%< 1%97%2.0%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%97%< 1%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%97%
7259%5%99.2%38%5%98.3%11%2.3%97%14%2.7%96%3.6%< 1%96%4.9%1.2%95%4.6%1.1%95%2.7%< 1%96%1.2%< 1%94%< 1%< 1%94%< 1%< 1%95%
7165%5%98.2%43%5%96.7%14%2.8%94%17%3.2%93%4.8%1.2%93%6%1.5%91%6%1.5%91%3.6%< 1%92%1.7%< 1%91%< 1%< 1%92%< 1%< 1%90%
7070%4.9%96.6%49%5%94%17%3.2%90%20%3.6%89%6%1.5%88%8%1.8%86%8%1.8%86%4.9%1.2%86%2.4%< 1%86%1.1%< 1%85%< 1%< 1%86%
6974%4.6%94%54%5%90%21%3.7%84%24%4.0%82%8%1.8%81%10%2.2%79%10%2.1%78%6%1.5%79%3.2%< 1%77%1.5%< 1%79%< 1%< 1%78%
6878%4.2%90%59%5%83%25%4.0%76%29%4.4%73%10%2.2%72%13%2.6%69%12%2.5%68%8%1.9%69%4.3%1.1%67%2.1%< 1%68%< 1%< 1%67%
6782%3.8%83%64%5%75%29%4.4%66%34%4.7%62%13%2.6%61%16%3.0%57%15%3.0%57%10%2.2%57%6%1.4%55%2.9%< 1%57%1.2%< 1%55%
6685%3.3%75%69%4.9%64%34%4.7%55%39%5%49%16%3.0%50%20%3.5%44%19%3.4%44%13%2.6%45%7%1.7%43%3.8%< 1%43%1.6%< 1%44%
6588%2.9%66%74%4.6%53%39%5%43%44%5%37%19%3.4%38%23%3.8%32%23%3.8%32%16%3.0%33%9%2.0%31%5%1.3%32%2.3%< 1%30%
6491%2.4%56%78%4.2%41%44%5%32%49%5%26%23%3.8%28%28%4.3%22%27%4.2%21%20%3.5%21%12%2.4%19%7%1.6%22%3.1%< 1%20%
6393%2.0%46%82%3.8%31%49%5%23%54%5%16%27%4.2%20%32%4.6%13%31%4.6%13%24%3.9%13%15%2.8%11%9%1.9%13%4.2%1.1%11%
6294%1.7%39%85%3.3%22%55%5%16%60%5%9%32%4.6%14%37%4.9%7%36%4.9%7%28%4.3%7%18%3.2%5%11%2.3%8%6%1.3%6%
6195.7%1.4%33%88%2.9%17%60%5%11%65%5%4.6%37%4.9%10%42%5%3.5%41%5%3.3%32%4.6%3.3%22%3.7%2.8%13%2.6%5%7%1.6%3%
6096.8%1.1%31%90%2.5%13%65%5%8%69%4.8%1.9%42%5%9%48%5%1.4%47%5%1.3%37%4.9%1.3%26%4.1%< 1%17%3.1%3.0%9%2.0%1.0%
5997.7%< 1%29%93%2.1%11%70%4.8%7%74%4.5%< 1%47%5%8%53%5%< 1%52%5%< 1%42%5%< 1%30%4.5%< 1%20%3.5%2.3%11%2.4%< 1%
5898.3%< 1%28%94%1.7%10%74%4.5%6%78%4.1%< 1%52%5%8%58%5%< 1%57%5%< 1%48%5%< 1%35%4.8%< 1%24%4.0%2.1%14%2.8%< 1%
5798.8%< 1%28%95.6%1.4%11%78%4.1%6%82%3.7%< 1%58%5%8%63%5%< 1%63%5%< 1%53%5%< 1%40%5%< 1%28%4.3%2.0%18%3.2%< 1%
5699.16%< 1%28%96.7%1.1%11%82%3.7%6%85%3.3%< 1%63%5%7%68%4.9%< 1%67%5.0%< 1%58%5%< 1%45%5%< 1%33%4.7%2.0%21%3.6%< 1%
5599.43%< 1%27%97.6%< 1%10%85%3.3%6%88%2.9%< 1%68%4.9%8%73%4.6%< 1%72%4.7%< 1%64%5%< 1%51%5%< 1%38%5.0%2.0%25%4.1%< 1%
5499.61%< 1%28%98.2%< 1%11%88%2.8%6%90%2.5%< 1%72%4.7%7%77%4.3%< 1%77%4.3%< 1%68%4.9%< 1%56%5%< 1%43%5%2.0%30%4.5%< 1%
5399.74%< 1%28%98.8%< 1%10%91%2.4%6%93%2.1%< 1%77%4.3%7%81%3.9%< 1%80%3.9%< 1%73%4.6%< 1%61%5%< 1%48%5%2.0%34%4.8%< 1%
5299.83%< 1%30%99.12%< 1%10%93%2.0%6%94%1.7%< 1%81%3.9%7%84%3.4%< 1%84%3.5%< 1%77%4.2%< 1%66%5%< 1%54%5%2.0%40%5%< 1%
5199.89%< 1%27%99.39%< 1%10%94%1.7%6%95.7%1.4%< 1%84%3.5%7%87%3.0%< 1%87%3.1%< 1%81%3.8%< 1%71%4.8%< 1%59%5%2.1%45%5%< 1%
5099.93%< 1%27%99.59%< 1%10%95.7%1.4%6%96.8%1.1%< 1%87%3.0%7%90%2.6%< 1%90%2.7%< 1%85%3.4%< 1%75%4.5%< 1%64%5%2.0%50%5%< 1%
4999.96%< 1%28%99.73%< 1%10%96.8%1.1%6%97.6%< 1%< 1%90%2.6%7%92%2.1%< 1%92%2.2%< 1%88%3.0%< 1%80%4.1%< 1%69%4.9%2.1%56%5%< 1%
4899.98%< 1%33%99.82%< 1%9%97.6%< 1%6%98.3%< 1%< 1%92%2.2%8%94%1.8%< 1%94%1.9%< 1%90%2.6%< 1%83%3.7%< 1%74%4.6%2.1%61%5%< 1%
4799.99%< 1%-99.89%< 1%10%98.3%< 1%6%98.8%< 1%< 1%94%1.8%7%95.4%1.5%< 1%95.3%1.5%< 1%92%2.2%< 1%86%3.2%< 1%78%4.3%2.0%66%5%< 1%
46>99.99%< 1%-99.93%< 1%10%98.8%< 1%6%99.15%< 1%< 1%95.3%1.5%7%96.6%1.2%< 1%96.5%1.2%< 1%94%1.8%< 1%89%2.8%< 1%82%3.8%2.1%71%4.9%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for avoiding relegation
Sheffield United vs Everton (2.8%)Home Win (42%)Draw (24%)Away Win (34%)
Sheffield United42%31%26%
Everton61%67%76%



LutonSheffield UnitedBournemouthEvertonForestBurnleyWolvesFulhamCrystal PalaceChelsea
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
57< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.0%< 1%100%1.1%< 1%100%4.1%1.0%100%5%1.3%100%11%2.3%100%18%3.2%100%28%4.3%100%
56< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.4%< 1%100%1.5%< 1%100%5%1.3%100%7%1.6%100%14%2.7%100%21%3.6%100%33%4.7%100%
55< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%2.0%< 1%100%2.1%< 1%100%7%1.6%100%9%1.9%100%17%3.1%100%25%4.1%100%38%5.0%100%
54< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%2.7%< 1%100%2.8%< 1%100%9%1.9%100%11%2.3%100%20%3.6%100%30%4.5%100%43%5%100%
53< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.1%< 1%100%3.6%< 1%100%3.8%< 1%100%11%2.3%100%14%2.7%100%24%4.0%100%34%4.8%100%48%5%100%
52< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.6%< 1%100%4.8%1.2%100%5%1.2%100%14%2.7%100%17%3.2%100%29%4.4%100%40%5%100%54%5%100%
51< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%2.2%< 1%100%6%1.5%100%7%1.5%100%17%3.1%100%21%3.6%100%34%4.8%100%45%5%100%59%5%100%
50< 1%< 1%100%1.3%< 1%100%3.0%< 1%100%8%1.8%100%8%1.9%100%20%3.6%100%25%4.0%100%39%5%100%50%5%100%64%5%100%
49< 1%< 1%100%1.7%< 1%100%4.1%1.1%100%10%2.2%100%11%2.3%100%24%4.0%100%29%4.4%100%44%5%100%56%5%100%69%4.9%100%
481.1%< 1%100%2.4%< 1%100%5%1.3%100%13%2.6%100%13%2.7%100%29%4.4%100%34%4.8%100%49%5%100%61%5%100%74%4.6%100%
471.5%< 1%99.9%3.3%< 1%100%7%1.7%100%16%3.1%>99.99%17%3.1%>99.99%34%4.7%100%39%5%100%55%5%100%66%5%>99.99%78%4.3%100%
462.1%< 1%99.9%4.4%1.1%100%9%2.0%99.98%20%3.5%99.99%20%3.6%99.99%38%4.9%>99.99%44%5%>99.99%60%5%>99.99%71%4.9%100%82%3.8%100%
452.9%< 1%99.9%6%1.4%99.9%12%2.4%99.9%23%3.9%99.9%24%4.0%99.97%44%5%99.98%50%5%99.98%65%5%99.99%75%4.5%>99.99%85%3.4%100%
444.0%1.0%99.6%8%1.7%99.7%14%2.9%99.7%28%4.4%99.8%29%4.5%99.8%49%5%99.9%55%5%99.9%70%4.9%99.9%79%4.1%99.9%88%2.9%99.9%
435%1.3%98.7%10%2.2%99.2%18%3.3%99.2%33%4.7%99.5%34%4.9%99.5%54%5%99.7%60%5%99.7%75%4.6%99.7%83%3.7%99.8%90%2.5%99.7%
427%1.6%97%12%2.6%97.6%22%3.8%97.8%38%5%98.5%39%5%98.5%60%5%98.9%66%5%99.0%79%4.2%99.2%86%3.2%99.3%93%2.1%99.2%
419%2.0%93%15%3.0%94%26%4.3%95%43%5%96.5%44%5%96.6%65%5%97.4%71%4.9%97.5%83%3.8%97.9%89%2.8%98.0%94%1.7%98%
4011%2.4%86%19%3.5%89%31%4.7%90%48%5%93%50%6%93%70%4.9%94%75%4.6%95%86%3.3%95%92%2.4%95%95.8%1.4%95%
3914%2.9%77%23%4.0%81%36%5.0%83%54%5%86%55%6%87%74%4.6%89%79%4.2%89%89%2.9%89%94%2.0%90%96.9%1.1%91%
3818%3.3%65%27%4.5%69%41%5%73%59%5%78%61%5%78%78%4.2%81%83%3.8%81%91%2.4%82%95.1%1.6%82%97.7%< 1%83%
3721%3.9%51%32%4.8%56%46%6%60%65%5%66%66%5%67%82%3.8%70%86%3.4%71%93%2.0%71%96.4%1.3%72%98.4%< 1%73%
3626%4.3%37%37%5%43%52%6%47%70%5%54%71%5%54%86%3.3%58%89%2.9%58%95.0%1.6%59%97.4%< 1%59%98.9%< 1%60%
3530%4.8%26%43%5%31%58%6%34%74%4.7%41%76%4.7%41%89%2.9%45%92%2.4%45%96.3%1.3%46%98.1%< 1%46%99.23%< 1%46%
3436%5%16%48%6%20%63%5%23%79%4.4%29%80%4.3%29%91%2.5%32%94%2.0%33%97.3%1.0%32%98.7%< 1%34%99.48%< 1%32%
3341%5%9%54%6%13%68%5%15%83%3.9%19%84%3.8%20%93%2.1%21%95.3%1.6%21%98.1%< 1%21%99.11%< 1%22%99.66%< 1%22%
3247%6%5%60%6%7%73%5.0%9%86%3.4%12%87%3.3%12%95%1.7%13%96.6%1.3%13%98.7%< 1%13%99.42%< 1%13%99.78%< 1%15%
3152%6%2.5%65%6%3.9%78%4.5%5%89%3.0%7%90%2.8%7%96.1%1.4%8%97.5%< 1%8%99.13%< 1%7%99.62%< 1%8%99.86%< 1%8%
3058%6%1.1%71%5%1.9%82%4.1%2.5%91%2.5%4%92%2.4%4%97.2%1.1%4%98.3%< 1%4%99.43%< 1%3%99.76%< 1%3%99.91%< 1%4%
2964%6%< 1%75%4.9%< 1%86%3.6%1.2%94%2.1%1.7%94%1.9%1.9%98.0%< 1%2%98.8%< 1%2%99.63%< 1%2%99.85%< 1%2%99.95%< 1%1%
2869%5%< 1%80%4.4%< 1%89%3.1%< 1%95.2%1.7%< 1%95.8%1.6%< 1%98.6%< 1%< 1%99.20%< 1%< 1%99.77%< 1%1%99.90%< 1%< 1%99.97%< 1%2%
2774%5%< 1%84%4.0%< 1%91%2.6%< 1%96.5%1.3%< 1%97.0%1.2%< 1%99.05%< 1%< 1%99.48%< 1%< 1%99.86%< 1%< 1%99.95%< 1%< 1%99.98%< 1%< 1%
2679%4.7%< 1%87%3.4%< 1%94%2.1%< 1%97.5%< 1%< 1%97.9%< 1%< 1%99.37%< 1%< 1%99.67%< 1%< 1%99.92%< 1%< 1%99.97%< 1%< 1%99.99%< 1%-
2583%4.2%< 1%90%2.9%< 1%95.3%1.7%< 1%98.3%< 1%< 1%98.6%< 1%< 1%99.58%< 1%< 1%99.79%< 1%< 1%99.95%< 1%< 1%99.98%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-
2487%3.6%< 1%93%2.4%< 1%96.6%1.3%< 1%98.8%< 1%< 1%99.05%< 1%< 1%99.73%< 1%< 1%99.88%< 1%< 1%99.97%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points




EuropeEL (or CL)CL
Fourth team100%100%99.29%
Fifth team99.98%99.88%4.6%
FA cup winners100%100%60%
League cup winners>99.99%72%62%
Sixth team92%70%3.5%
Seventh team62%14%2.7%
Eighth team18%8%2.2%


Simulated points for winner: 84 - 92
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 69
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Luton30%24%46%West Ham
Sheffield United42%24%34%Everton
Chelsea62%20%18%Forest
Man City82%12%6%Fulham
Burnley39%24%37%Tottenham
Brentford67%18%15%Bournemouth
Brighton44%24%32%Newcastle
Liverpool62%20%18%Aston Villa
Crystal Palace53%23%24%Wolves
Arsenal54%22%23%Man United



 

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