PL: Title race match at Emirates

On Sunday we'll have a match between two contenders in the title race. Man City have a more than 10% swing depending on whether they win or lose against Arsenal.

Hot Teams
Tottenham: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 5.2 more than expected
Aston Villa: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.0 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
West Ham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Wolves: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brentford: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 5.3 less than expected
Sheffield United: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Everton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 less than expected
Bournemouth: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
Man United: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
18	Man City	88.1	+61	< 1%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.95%	99.82%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	99.90%
16	Liverpool	77.1	+40	< 1%	99.31%	98.3%	96.0%	91%	10%	< 1%	4.3%	94%
17	Arsenal	73.1	+31	< 1%	97.1%	94%	88%	77%	3.9%	2.9%	14%	79%
17	Tottenham	66.9	+20	< 1%	85%	74%	60%	42%	< 1%	7%	31%	42%
12	Newcastle	65.1	+28	< 1%	80%	67%	51%	33%	< 1%	11%	29%	37%
15	Aston Villa	62.9	+15	< 1%	68%	53%	37%	21%	< 1%	8%	41%	21%
15	Brighton	62.6	+12	< 1%	66%	50%	34%	20%	< 1%	10%	29%	24%
9	Man United	57.7	+5	< 1%	37%	24%	13%	6%	< 1%	16%	18%	10%
13	West Ham	57.6	+5	< 1%	37%	24%	14%	7%	< 1%	13%	17%	11%
11	Crystal Palace	51.5	-5	< 1%	11%	6%	2.7%	1.0%	< 1%	3.5%	4.9%	1.0%
7	Brentford	50.5	+0	1.0%	10%	4.8%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	4.3%	< 1%
8	Chelsea	47.9	-5	2.4%	4.7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	2.8%	< 1%
8	Fulham	47.1	-14	3.4%	3.6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	2.3%	< 1%
7	Wolves	43.1	-17	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Forest	41.8	-17	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%
4	Burnley	39.0	-24	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Everton	37.3	-23	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	3.3%	< 1%
3	Bournemouth	34.7	-30	49%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	1.1%	< 1%
1	Sheffield United	28.7	-41	82%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Luton	28.7	-42	83%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	95%	59%	15%		36%	15%
Liverpool	64%	20%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
Arsenal	34%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	7%	< 1%			< 1%
Newcastle	18%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	25%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brighton	12%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Man United	19%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
West Ham	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	< 1%			< 1%
Brentford	< 1%	< 1%			< 1%
Chelsea	10%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	6%	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Forest	1.7%
Burnley	2.4%	< 1%
Everton	7%	< 1%
Bournemouth	2.5%	< 1%
Sheffield United	< 1%
Luton	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Man City (2.5%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (45%)
Man City	78%	84%	89%
Arsenal	7%	3.6%	1.8%
Liverpool	13%	11%	8%

	Man City			Liverpool			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
102	1.0%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
101	1.7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
100	2.7%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
99	4.1%	1.4%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
98	6%	1.9%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
97	8%	2.4%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
96	11%	3.1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	94%
95	15%	3.7%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	90%
94	19%	4.4%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	89%
93	24%	5.0%	99.4%	< 1%	< 1%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	82%
92	30%	6%	99.0%	1.3%	< 1%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	78%
91	36%	6%	98.4%	2.0%	< 1%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	72%
90	42%	6%	97.4%	3.0%	< 1%	65%	< 1%	< 1%	65%
89	49%	6%	96.1%	4.2%	1.2%	58%	1.1%	< 1%	59%
88	55%	6%	94%	6%	1.6%	50%	1.6%	< 1%	50%
87	61%	6%	92%	8%	2.0%	43%	2.3%	< 1%	42%
86	67%	6%	89%	10%	2.6%	36%	3.3%	< 1%	35%
85	73%	5%	84%	14%	3.1%	30%	4.6%	1.3%	28%
84	78%	4.9%	79%	17%	3.6%	24%	6%	1.7%	22%
83	82%	4.3%	73%	21%	4.2%	19%	8%	2.1%	16%
82	86%	3.8%	65%	26%	4.7%	14%	11%	2.5%	12%
81	89%	3.2%	58%	31%	5%	10%	14%	3.0%	8%
80	92%	2.6%	49%	37%	6%	7%	18%	3.6%	5%
79	94%	2.1%	41%	42%	6%	4.6%	22%	4.1%	3.4%
78	95.4%	1.7%	32%	48%	6%	3.0%	26%	4.6%	2.2%
77	96.7%	1.3%	25%	54%	6%	1.8%	31%	5%	1.3%
76	97.6%	< 1%	18%	60%	6%	1.1%	37%	5%	< 1%
75	98.3%	< 1%	12%	66%	6%	< 1%	42%	6%	< 1%
74	98.9%	< 1%	6%	71%	5%	< 1%	48%	6%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
West Ham vs Newcastle (2.1%)	Home Win (40%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (36%)
Newcastle	60%	65%	74%
West Ham	34%	27%	23%

	Liverpool			Arsenal			Tottenham			Newcastle			Aston Villa			Brighton			Man United			West Ham			Crystal Palace			Brentford			Everton			Chelsea			Fulham			Forest			Bournemouth
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
79	42%	6%	100%	22%	4.1%	100%	4.9%	1.3%	100%	2.6%	< 1%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
78	48%	6%	100%	26%	4.6%	100%	6%	1.6%	100%	3.6%	1.0%	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	1.6%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	54%	6%	100%	31%	5%	>99.99%	9%	2.0%	>99.99%	5.0%	1.3%	>99.99%	2.6%	< 1%	100%	2.3%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	60%	6%	100%	37%	5%	>99.99%	11%	2.5%	99.99%	7%	1.7%	>99.99%	3.7%	1.0%	>99.99%	3.3%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	66%	6%	>99.99%	42%	6%	>99.99%	14%	3.0%	99.98%	9%	2.1%	99.98%	5.0%	1.3%	99.9%	4.5%	1.2%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	71%	5%	>99.99%	48%	6%	99.98%	17%	3.4%	99.9%	11%	2.6%	99.98%	7%	1.7%	99.9%	6%	1.5%	99.9%	1.2%	< 1%	99.8%	1.2%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	76%	4.8%	99.97%	54%	6%	99.9%	21%	3.9%	99.8%	14%	3.0%	99.8%	9%	2.0%	99.8%	8%	1.9%	99.7%	1.7%	< 1%	99.5%	1.8%	< 1%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	80%	4.3%	99.9%	59%	6%	99.9%	26%	4.4%	99.6%	18%	3.6%	99.6%	11%	2.5%	99.5%	10%	2.3%	99.3%	2.4%	< 1%	99%	2.5%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	84%	3.8%	99.8%	65%	5%	99.6%	31%	4.8%	99.2%	22%	4.0%	99.2%	14%	3.0%	98.9%	13%	2.8%	98.6%	3.4%	< 1%	98%	3.4%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	87%	3.3%	99.5%	70%	5%	99.1%	36%	5%	98.3%	26%	4.5%	98.4%	18%	3.4%	97.9%	16%	3.2%	97.2%	4.6%	1.2%	97%	4.7%	1.2%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	90%	2.8%	98.9%	75%	4.9%	98.2%	41%	5%	96.8%	31%	4.9%	97.2%	21%	3.9%	96.5%	20%	3.8%	95%	6%	1.5%	94%	6%	1.5%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	92%	2.3%	97.9%	79%	4.3%	96.6%	47%	6%	94%	37%	5%	95%	26%	4.4%	94%	24%	4.2%	92%	8%	1.9%	90%	8%	1.9%	90%	1.1%	< 1%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	94%	1.9%	96%	83%	3.9%	94%	52%	6%	91%	42%	5%	91%	31%	4.8%	90%	29%	4.7%	87%	10%	2.4%	85%	10%	2.3%	85%	1.6%	< 1%	83%	1.1%	< 1%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	95.6%	1.5%	94%	87%	3.4%	90%	58%	6%	85%	48%	6%	86%	36%	5%	85%	34%	5%	81%	13%	2.8%	77%	13%	2.8%	77%	2.3%	< 1%	74%	1.6%	< 1%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	96.8%	1.2%	90%	89%	2.9%	84%	64%	5%	78%	53%	6%	80%	41%	5%	79%	39%	5%	74%	17%	3.3%	68%	17%	3.3%	68%	3.2%	< 1%	63%	2.3%	< 1%	67%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	63%	< 1%	< 1%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	97.7%	< 1%	84%	92%	2.4%	76%	69%	5%	69%	59%	6%	71%	47%	6%	71%	45%	6%	64%	20%	3.8%	58%	20%	3.7%	58%	4.3%	1.2%	51%	3.1%	< 1%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.3%	< 1%	55%	< 1%	< 1%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	55%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	98.4%	< 1%	77%	94%	2.0%	66%	74%	4.9%	59%	64%	5%	61%	52%	6%	63%	50%	6%	54%	25%	4.3%	47%	24%	4.2%	47%	6%	1.5%	39%	4.3%	1.1%	42%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.8%	< 1%	44%	1.4%	< 1%	41%	< 1%	< 1%	47%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	98.9%	< 1%	70%	95.4%	1.6%	56%	78%	4.5%	48%	70%	5%	51%	58%	6%	55%	56%	6%	45%	29%	4.7%	36%	29%	4.6%	37%	8%	1.8%	28%	6%	1.5%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	38%	2.5%	< 1%	31%	2.0%	< 1%	28%	< 1%	< 1%	33%	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	99.24%	< 1%	62%	96.6%	1.2%	45%	82%	4.0%	36%	74%	4.8%	40%	64%	5%	46%	62%	6%	35%	34%	5%	28%	34%	5%	27%	10%	2.2%	18%	8%	1.8%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	30%	3.5%	< 1%	21%	2.8%	< 1%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	22%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	99.50%	< 1%	55%	97.6%	< 1%	35%	86%	3.5%	28%	79%	4.3%	30%	69%	5%	40%	67%	5%	28%	40%	5%	21%	39%	5%	21%	13%	2.7%	12%	10%	2.3%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	4.7%	1.2%	13%	3.9%	1.0%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	99.67%	< 1%	51%	98.3%	< 1%	27%	89%	3.0%	20%	83%	3.9%	22%	74%	4.9%	34%	72%	5%	22%	45%	6%	15%	45%	6%	16%	16%	3.2%	6%	13%	2.7%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	6%	1.6%	8%	5%	1.3%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	10%
58	99.78%	< 1%	46%	98.8%	< 1%	23%	91%	2.5%	14%	86%	3.4%	16%	78%	4.5%	31%	77%	4.6%	17%	51%	6%	12%	51%	6%	12%	19%	3.7%	3.5%	16%	3.2%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	8%	2.0%	4%	7%	1.7%	4%	1.2%	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	5%
57	99.87%	< 1%	48%	99.19%	< 1%	21%	93%	2.1%	11%	89%	2.9%	12%	82%	4.0%	28%	81%	4.1%	15%	57%	6%	10%	56%	6%	10%	24%	4.2%	1.9%	19%	3.7%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	11%	2.4%	3%	9%	2.1%	2%	1.8%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	4%
56	99.92%	< 1%	41%	99.47%	< 1%	18%	95%	1.7%	8%	91%	2.5%	10%	86%	3.5%	27%	84%	3.6%	13%	62%	5%	9%	62%	6%	9%	28%	4.6%	1.2%	24%	4.2%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	14%	2.8%	1.8%	11%	2.5%	1.6%	2.5%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	2%
55	99.95%	< 1%	41%	99.65%	< 1%	18%	96.2%	1.3%	8%	93%	2.0%	9%	89%	3.0%	26%	88%	3.2%	13%	67%	5%	9%	67%	5%	9%	33%	5%	< 1%	28%	4.6%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	17%	3.3%	1.3%	14%	2.9%	1.3%	3.4%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	3%
54	99.97%	< 1%	49%	99.79%	< 1%	16%	97.2%	1.0%	7%	95.0%	1.6%	8%	91%	2.5%	26%	90%	2.7%	12%	72%	4.9%	9%	72%	5.0%	8%	39%	5%	< 1%	33%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	21%	3.8%	1.2%	18%	3.4%	1.2%	4.6%	1.2%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	1%
53	99.98%	< 1%	47%	99.86%	< 1%	16%	98.0%	< 1%	6%	96.3%	1.3%	8%	93%	2.1%	25%	92%	2.2%	12%	77%	4.5%	9%	77%	4.6%	8%	44%	6%	< 1%	39%	5%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	3%	25%	4.3%	1.2%	22%	3.9%	1.1%	6%	1.5%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
52	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.92%	< 1%	19%	98.6%	< 1%	7%	97.3%	1.0%	8%	95%	1.7%	25%	94%	1.8%	12%	81%	4.1%	8%	81%	4.1%	8%	50%	6%	< 1%	44%	6%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	3%	30%	4.7%	1.2%	26%	4.4%	1.0%	8%	1.9%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	1%
51	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.95%	< 1%	18%	99.08%	< 1%	7%	98.1%	< 1%	8%	96.3%	1.3%	26%	95.8%	1.5%	13%	85%	3.6%	8%	84%	3.7%	9%	56%	6%	< 1%	50%	6%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%	3%	35%	5%	1.1%	31%	4.8%	1.0%	10%	2.3%	1.7%	1.0%	< 1%	1%
50	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.97%	< 1%	19%	99.39%	< 1%	7%	98.7%	< 1%	8%	97.3%	1.0%	26%	96.9%	1.1%	12%	88%	3.2%	8%	88%	3.2%	8%	61%	6%	< 1%	55%	6%	< 1%	3.7%	1.0%	3%	40%	5%	1.1%	36%	5%	1.1%	13%	2.8%	1.6%	1.5%	< 1%	1%
49	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.98%	< 1%	19%	99.60%	< 1%	6%	99.11%	< 1%	8%	98.1%	< 1%	25%	97.8%	< 1%	11%	90%	2.7%	9%	90%	2.7%	8%	67%	5%	< 1%	61%	6%	< 1%	5%	1.3%	3%	46%	6%	1.2%	41%	5%	1.1%	16%	3.2%	1.6%	2.1%	< 1%	1%
48	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.99%	< 1%	-	99.75%	< 1%	7%	99.41%	< 1%	9%	98.7%	< 1%	25%	98.5%	< 1%	13%	93%	2.2%	8%	93%	2.3%	8%	72%	5%	< 1%	66%	5%	< 1%	7%	1.6%	3%	52%	6%	1.2%	47%	6%	1.1%	20%	3.8%	1.7%	3.0%	< 1%	1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Everton vs Bournemouth (3.4%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Everton	75%	64%	56%
Bournemouth	45%	53%	64%

	Luton			Sheffield United			Bournemouth			Everton			Burnley			Forest			Wolves			Fulham			Chelsea			Brentford
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
53	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.4%	< 1%	100%	2.5%	< 1%	100%	6%	1.5%	100%	9%	2.0%	100%	22%	3.9%	100%	25%	4.3%	100%	39%	5%	100%
52	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	3.4%	< 1%	100%	8%	1.9%	100%	11%	2.5%	100%	26%	4.4%	100%	30%	4.7%	100%	44%	6%	100%
51	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	2.7%	< 1%	100%	4.7%	1.3%	100%	10%	2.3%	100%	14%	2.9%	100%	31%	4.8%	100%	35%	5%	100%	50%	6%	100%
50	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	3.7%	1.0%	100%	6%	1.6%	100%	13%	2.8%	100%	17%	3.4%	100%	36%	5%	100%	40%	5%	100%	55%	6%	100%
49	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.1%	< 1%	100%	5%	1.3%	100%	8%	1.9%	100%	16%	3.2%	100%	21%	3.9%	100%	41%	5%	100%	46%	6%	100%	61%	6%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	3.0%	< 1%	100%	7%	1.6%	100%	11%	2.4%	100%	20%	3.8%	100%	26%	4.4%	100%	47%	6%	100%	52%	6%	100%	66%	5%	100%
47	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	4.1%	1.1%	100%	9%	2.0%	>99.99%	13%	2.9%	100%	24%	4.3%	100%	30%	4.8%	100%	53%	6%	100%	57%	6%	100%	71%	5%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	5%	1.4%	100%	11%	2.5%	100%	17%	3.4%	100%	29%	4.7%	>99.99%	36%	5%	100%	58%	6%	100%	63%	6%	100%	76%	4.7%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	7%	1.8%	100%	14%	3.0%	100%	21%	3.9%	>99.99%	34%	5%	100%	41%	6%	100%	64%	6%	>99.99%	68%	5%	>99.99%	80%	4.2%	100%
44	1.1%	< 1%	99.9%	1.3%	< 1%	99.9%	9%	2.2%	99.9%	18%	3.5%	99.99%	25%	4.4%	99.98%	40%	5%	>99.99%	47%	6%	>99.99%	69%	5%	>99.99%	73%	5%	>99.99%	84%	3.8%	100%
43	1.7%	< 1%	99.8%	1.9%	< 1%	99.8%	12%	2.7%	99.9%	22%	4.0%	99.9%	30%	4.9%	99.9%	45%	6%	99.96%	53%	6%	99.96%	74%	4.9%	99.97%	78%	4.6%	99.98%	87%	3.3%	99.98%
42	2.3%	< 1%	99.4%	2.7%	< 1%	99.5%	15%	3.1%	99.6%	26%	4.5%	99.8%	35%	5%	99.8%	51%	6%	99.9%	59%	6%	99.9%	79%	4.5%	99.9%	82%	4.1%	99.9%	90%	2.8%	99.9%
41	3.3%	< 1%	98%	3.7%	1.0%	98%	19%	3.7%	98.9%	31%	4.9%	99.4%	41%	6%	99.3%	57%	6%	99.6%	64%	6%	99.6%	83%	4.1%	99.7%	86%	3.6%	99.8%	92%	2.3%	99.8%
40	4.5%	1.3%	96%	5%	1.4%	96%	23%	4.2%	97.1%	36%	5%	98.4%	47%	6%	98.4%	63%	6%	99.0%	70%	5%	98.9%	86%	3.5%	98.9%	89%	3.1%	99.2%	94%	1.9%	99.4%
39	6%	1.6%	91%	7%	1.7%	91%	28%	4.7%	94%	42%	6%	96.1%	53%	6%	96.3%	68%	5%	97.3%	75%	5.0%	97.3%	89%	3.0%	97.4%	91%	2.6%	98.1%	95.8%	1.5%	98%
38	8%	2.0%	83%	9%	2.2%	83%	33%	5%	89%	48%	6%	92%	58%	6%	92%	73%	5%	94%	79%	4.5%	94%	92%	2.5%	94%	93%	2.1%	95%	97.0%	1.2%	96%
37	11%	2.5%	72%	12%	2.6%	73%	39%	6%	80%	54%	6%	86%	64%	6%	86%	78%	4.7%	89%	83%	4.1%	89%	94%	2.1%	88%	95.2%	1.7%	91%	97.9%	< 1%	91%
36	14%	3.1%	59%	15%	3.1%	60%	44%	6%	70%	60%	6%	77%	70%	5%	77%	82%	4.2%	81%	87%	3.5%	80%	95.4%	1.6%	80%	96.5%	1.4%	83%	98.5%	< 1%	84%
35	17%	3.7%	46%	18%	3.7%	46%	50%	6%	58%	65%	6%	65%	75%	5%	66%	86%	3.7%	71%	90%	3.0%	70%	96.7%	1.3%	69%	97.5%	1.0%	72%	99.01%	< 1%	73%
34	22%	4.2%	33%	23%	4.3%	33%	56%	6%	44%	71%	5%	53%	79%	4.6%	53%	89%	3.2%	58%	92%	2.5%	57%	97.7%	< 1%	56%	98.3%	< 1%	60%	99.35%	< 1%	59%
33	26%	4.8%	21%	27%	4.8%	22%	62%	6%	33%	76%	5.0%	40%	83%	4.1%	41%	92%	2.6%	44%	94%	2.0%	43%	98.4%	< 1%	43%	98.9%	< 1%	47%	99.57%	< 1%	46%
32	32%	5%	13%	33%	5%	13%	68%	6%	22%	80%	4.5%	28%	87%	3.5%	29%	94%	2.1%	32%	95.9%	1.6%	32%	98.9%	< 1%	29%	99.25%	< 1%	33%	99.73%	< 1%	32%
31	38%	6%	7%	38%	6%	7%	73%	5%	14%	84%	4.0%	19%	90%	3.0%	19%	95.6%	1.7%	21%	97.1%	1.2%	21%	99.30%	< 1%	19%	99.52%	< 1%	22%	99.84%	< 1%	20%
30	44%	6%	3.9%	44%	6%	3.9%	78%	4.9%	8%	88%	3.5%	12%	92%	2.5%	12%	96.9%	1.3%	13%	98.0%	< 1%	12%	99.55%	< 1%	11%	99.70%	< 1%	13%	99.90%	< 1%	11%
29	50%	6%	1.8%	50%	6%	1.7%	82%	4.4%	4.1%	91%	2.9%	7%	94%	2.0%	6%	97.9%	< 1%	7%	98.7%	< 1%	7%	99.73%	< 1%	6%	99.82%	< 1%	8%	99.94%	< 1%	5%
28	56%	6%	< 1%	57%	6%	< 1%	86%	3.8%	2.1%	93%	2.4%	3%	96.0%	1.6%	3%	98.6%	< 1%	4%	99.14%	< 1%	4%	99.83%	< 1%	3%	99.89%	< 1%	5%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%
27	63%	6%	< 1%	63%	6%	< 1%	89%	3.2%	< 1%	95%	1.9%	1.6%	97.2%	1.2%	1%	99.07%	< 1%	2%	99.46%	< 1%	2%	99.90%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%	< 1%	1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%
26	69%	6%	< 1%	69%	6%	< 1%	92%	2.6%	< 1%	96.3%	1.5%	< 1%	98.1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.42%	< 1%	< 1%	99.67%	< 1%	< 1%	99.95%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-
25	75%	6%	< 1%	74%	5%	< 1%	94%	2.2%	< 1%	97.5%	1.1%	< 1%	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	99.65%	< 1%	< 1%	99.80%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	2%	>99.99%	< 1%	-
24	80%	5%	< 1%	79%	5.0%	< 1%	95.8%	1.7%	< 1%	98.3%	< 1%	< 1%	99.18%	< 1%	< 1%	99.80%	< 1%	< 1%	99.89%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-
23	84%	4.5%	< 1%	83%	4.4%	< 1%	97.1%	1.3%	< 1%	98.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.49%	< 1%	< 1%	99.88%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.32%
Fifth team	99.98%	99.91%	5%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	63%
League cup winners	>99.99%	60%	49%
Sixth team	91%	74%	4.2%
Seventh team	58%	17%	3.5%
Eighth team	21%	9%	3.0%

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 38

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Luton	22%	22%	56%	Tottenham
Everton	54%	22%	24%	Bournemouth
Man United	54%	22%	23%	Brentford
Burnley	42%	24%	34%	Chelsea
Fulham	63%	20%	17%	Sheffield United
Crystal Palace	57%	22%	21%	Forest
West Ham	40%	24%	36%	Newcastle
Wolves	35%	24%	41%	Aston Villa
Brighton	35%	24%	41%	Liverpool
Arsenal	32%	24%	45%	Man City