CL: Key match between Lens and PSV

 Lens host PSV in a key match in Group B next round. Lens have 82% if they win and only 41% otherwise. PSV have 56% if they win and only 16% otherwise. Another important match is Group F and PSG play AC Milan. PSG have 75% if they win and only 33% otherwise.

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	< 1%	17%	82%	99.40%	86%	70%	56%	41%
A	Bayern	1.5%	8%	90%	98.4%	68%	42%	23%	12%
B	Arsenal	9%	24%	63%	87%	57%	32%	17%	8%
C	Real Madrid	3.3%	18%	78%	96.4%	60%	33%	16%	7%
D	Inter	11%	24%	62%	86%	51%	27%	13%	5%
C	Napoli	13%	65%	19%	84%	45%	24%	11%	4.8%
H	Barcelona	6%	38%	55%	93%	50%	24%	11%	4.2%
G	RB Leipzig	6%	76%	17%	93%	48%	22%	9%	3.2%
F	Newcastle	23%	27%	33%	60%	34%	17%	7%	2.8%
E	Atletico	16%	29%	49%	78%	39%	17%	7%	2.5%
H	Porto	9%	48%	42%	90%	41%	17%	6%	2.1%
F	Paris SG	23%	28%	34%	62%	29%	12%	4.4%	1.5%
F	Milan	28%	24%	19%	44%	22%	10%	3.8%	1.4%
A	Man United	39%	35%	2.8%	38%	18%	8%	3.0%	1.1%
F	Dortmund	26%	21%	14%	34%	16%	7%	2.7%	< 1%
D	Sociedad	23%	43%	25%	67%	25%	8%	2.4%	< 1%
E	Lazio	34%	30%	19%	49%	17%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
E	Feyenoord	30%	32%	29%	61%	20%	6%	1.5%	< 1%
B	PSV	30%	21%	8%	29%	10%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Lens	25%	37%	22%	59%	17%	4.6%	1.0%	< 1%
D	Benfica	23%	12%	3.4%	16%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Salzburg	43%	21%	10%	31%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Galatasaray	34%	44%	7%	51%	13%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Sevilla	35%	18%	8%	25%	7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Union Berlin	23%	6%	< 1%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Braga	60%	11%	2.4%	13%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Antwerp	52%	10%	1.9%	12%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	FC Kobenhavn	25%	12%	< 1%	13%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Celtic	21%	9%	3.1%	12%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Shakhtar	33%	4.0%	< 1%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Young Boys	49%	2.6%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Crvena Zvezda	44%	4.5%	< 1%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Bayern	14.2	(13-16)	< 1%	1%	8%	90%	98%
2	4	Galatasaray	7.9	(6-10)	15%	34%	44%	7%	51%
2	1	FC Kobenhavn	4.5	(3-6)	62%	25%	12%	< 1%	13%
2	0	Man United	6.9	(5-9)	23%	39%	35%	3%	38%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	4	Lens	8.7	(7-10)	16%	25%	37%	22%	59%
2	3	Arsenal	10.8	(9-13)	4%	9%	24%	63%	87%
2	2	Sevilla	6.3	(5-8)	40%	35%	18%	8%	25%
2	1	PSV	6.4	(5-8)	41%	30%	21%	8%	29%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Real Madrid	13.6	(12-15)	< 1%	3%	18%	78%	96%
2	3	Napoli	10.3	(9-12)	4%	13%	65%	19%	84%
2	3	Braga	6.4	(4-8)	26%	60%	11%	2%	14%
2	0	Union Berlin	4	(2-6)	70%	23%	6%	< 1%	7%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	4	Sociedad	9.3	(8-11)	10%	23%	43%	25%	67%
2	4	Inter	11.3	(10-13)	3%	11%	24%	62%	86%
2	3	Salzburg	7.3	(6-9)	26%	43%	21%	10%	31%
2	0	Benfica	5.4	(4-7)	61%	23%	12%	3%	16%

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
1	3	Feyenoord	9.3	(7-11)	9%	30%	32%	29%	61%
1	1	Atletico	10.5	(8-13)	6%	16%	29%	49%	78%
1	1	Lazio	8.3	(6-10)	17%	34%	30%	19%	49%
1	0	Celtic	4.8	(3-7)	68%	21%	9%	3%	12%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
1	3	Paris SG	9.2	(7-11)	15%	23%	28%	34%	62%
1	1	Newcastle	8.9	(7-11)	17%	23%	27%	33%	60%
1	1	Milan	7.7	(6-10)	28%	28%	24%	19%	44%
1	0	Dortmund	7	(5-9)	39%	26%	21%	14%	34%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
1	3	RB Leipzig	11.3	(10-13)	< 1%	6%	76%	17%	93%
1	3	Man City	14.9	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	17%	82%	99%
1	0	Young Boys	4.1	(3-6)	48%	49%	3%	< 1%	3%
1	0	Crvena Zvezda	4	(2-6)	51%	44%	4%	< 1%	5%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
1	3	Barcelona	12.3	(10-14)	< 1%	6%	38%	55%	93%
1	3	Porto	11.8	(10-13)	< 1%	9%	48%	42%	90%
1	0	Shakhtar	4.1	(2-6)	62%	33%	4%	< 1%	5%
1	0	Antwerp	5.7	(4-7)	36%	52%	10%	2%	12%