EL & ECL: Many groups open before the final match day

Ten teams have qualified for the EL knockout stages plus Feyernord from CL. IN addition teams like Newcastle, PSG and Man U are likely to end up in the EL knockouts.

In ECL, 11 teams have clinched a place in the knockout stage plus Servette via a third place in their EL group.

Europa League

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	9	West Ham	13.3	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	25%	74%	99.24%
4	9	Freiburg	11.9	(10-13)	< 1%	10%	64%	26%	90%
4	4	Olympiakos	7.3	(7-8)	5%	84%	11%	< 1%	11%
4	1	Backa Topola	1.8	(1-2)	95%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	11	Marseille	11.7	(11-12)	< 1%	< 1%	62%	38%	100%
5	10	Brighton	12.1	(11-13)	< 1%	< 1%	38%	62%	100%
5	4	AEK	4.9	(4-5)	55%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	2	Ajax	3.9	(3-5)	45%	55%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	9	Betis	11.1	(10-12)	< 1%	8%	11%	81%	92%
5	8	Rangers	8.7	(8-9)	< 1%	39%	45%	17%	61%
5	7	Sparta Praha	8.6	(7-10)	13%	41%	44%	1.9%	46%
5	4	Aris Limassol	5.1	(4-7)	87%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	11	Atalanta	12.9	(12-14)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	8	Sporting	10.2	(9-11)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
5	4	Sturm Graz	4.6	(4-5)	45%	55%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	4	Rakow	4.9	(4-5)	55%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	12	Liverpool	14	(13-15)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	8	Toulouse	9.3	(8-11)	< 1%	6%	94%	< 1%	94%
5	5	St Gillis	5.8	(5-6)	32%	62%	6%	< 1%	6%
5	3	LASK	4.5	(3-6)	68%	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	12	Rennes	13.6	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	46%	54%	100%
4	9	Villarreal	12.3	(12-13)	< 1%	< 1%	54%	46%	100%
5	4	Panathinaikos	5.8	(4-7)	26%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	1	Maccabi Haifa	2.6	(1-4)	74%	26%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	12	Slavia Praha	14.3	(13-15)	< 1%	< 1%	13%	87%	100%
5	10	Roma	12.5	(13-13)	< 1%	< 1%	87%	13%	100%
5	5	Servette	5.6	(5-6)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Sheriff Tiraspol	1.4	(1-1)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	15	Leverkusen	17.5	(18-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	7	Karabakh Agdam	9.1	(8-10)	< 1%	4.7%	95.3%	< 1%	95.3%
5	7	Molde	7.4	(7-7)	< 1%	95.3%	4.7%	< 1%	4.7%
5	0	Haecken	0.7	(0-1)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
E	Liverpool	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	85%	67%	53%	31%
H	Leverkusen	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	65%	37%	20%	10%
B	Brighton	< 1%	< 1%	38%	62%	100%	88%	58%	33%	17%	8%
D	Atalanta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	60%	31%	14%	7%
A	West Ham	< 1%	< 1%	25%	74%	99.24%	89%	54%	26%	12%	5%
	Newcastle					37%	29%	21%	14%	8%	4.3%
	Paris SG					51%	36%	21%	13%	8%	3.9%
C	Betis	< 1%	8%	11%	81%	92%	87%	47%	21%	8%	3.8%
G	Roma	< 1%	< 1%	87%	13%	100%	65%	34%	17%	8%	3.6%
	Feyenoord					100%	63%	31%	16%	7%	3.3%
F	Villarreal	< 1%	< 1%	54%	46%	100%	74%	34%	14%	5%	2.3%
	Man United					34%	24%	15%	9%	4.5%	2.1%
D	Sporting	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	54%	24%	11%	4.6%	2.1%
F	Rennes	< 1%	< 1%	46%	54%	100%	78%	34%	13%	4.4%	1.9%
B	Marseille	< 1%	< 1%	62%	38%	100%	70%	29%	11%	3.8%	1.7%
A	Freiburg	< 1%	10%	64%	26%	90%	58%	26%	10%	3.7%	1.6%
	Lens					73%	41%	18%	8%	3.2%	1.5%
G	Slavia Praha	< 1%	< 1%	13%	87%	100%	93%	36%	11%	2.9%	1.3%
	Salzburg					84%	43%	16%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
	Milan					12%	9%	5%	3.1%	1.8%	< 1%
	Galatasaray					42%	23%	9%	3.7%	1.3%	< 1%
	Porto					11%	8%	4.3%	2.4%	1.2%	< 1%
	Sevilla					27%	16%	7%	2.9%	1.2%	< 1%
	Braga					83%	38%	12%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%
	Benfica					16%	10%	4.8%	2.3%	1.0%	< 1%
	Young Boys					100%	38%	10%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Rangers	< 1%	39%	45%	17%	61%	32%	9%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Toulouse	< 1%	6%	94%	< 1%	94%	32%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
	Shakhtar					89%	30%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Karabakh Agdam	< 1%	4.7%	95.3%	< 1%	95.3%	28%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Napoli					3.5%	2.8%	1.8%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Sparta Praha	13%	41%	44%	1.9%	46%	17%	4.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	FC Kobenhavn					24%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Union Berlin					14%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Olympiakos	5%	84%	11%	< 1%	11%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	St Gillis	32%	62%	6%	< 1%	6%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Molde	< 1%	95.3%	4.7%	< 1%	4.7%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Europa Conference League

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	11	Lille	13.8	(14-14)	< 1%	< 1%	5%	95%	100%
5	10	Slovan Bratislava	12	(11-13)	< 1%	< 1%	95%	5%	100%
5	4	Klaksvik	4.1	(4-4)	19%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	3	Olimpija Ljubljana	3.8	(3-4)	81%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	13	Gent	14.3	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	41%	59%	100%
5	12	M Tel Aviv	13.5	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	59%	41%	100%
5	4	Zorya	6.3	(5-7)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	Breidablik	0.5	(0-1)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	15	Viktoria Plzen	17.2	(16-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	6	Dinamo Zagreb	8.6	(9-9)	1.1%	6%	93%	< 1%	93%
5	4	FK Astana	4.7	(4-5)	14%	85%	1.1%	< 1%	1.1%
5	4	Ballkani	4.3	(4-4)	85%	9%	6%	< 1%	6%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	13	Brugge	14.9	(14-16)	< 1%	< 1%	9%	91%	100%
5	10	Bodoe Glimt	10.9	(10-11)	< 1%	< 1%	91%	9%	100%
5	4	Lugano	5.3	(4-7)	21%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Besiktas	2.5	(1-4)	79%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	12	Aston Villa	14.6	(15-15)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.53%	100%
5	9	Legia	10.2	(9-12)	< 1%	45%	54%	< 1%	55%
5	6	Alkmaar	7.6	(6-9)	1.6%	53%	45%	< 1%	45%
5	3	Zrinjski Mostar	3.3	(3-3)	98.4%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	11	Fiorentina	13	(12-14)	< 1%	< 1%	21%	79%	100%
5	9	Ferencvaros	9.8	(9-10)	< 1%	44%	35%	21%	56%
5	6	Genk	8.6	(9-9)	< 1%	56%	44%	< 1%	44%
5	0	Cukaricki	0.3	(0-0)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	13	PAOK	15.4	(16-16)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	9	Frankfurt	11.3	(10-12)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
5	3	Aberdeen	3.6	(3-4)	8%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	2	HJK Helsinki	2.4	(2-2)	92%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	10	Nordsjaelland	11.3	(10-13)	< 1%	32%	27%	41%	68%
5	9	Razgrad	10.4	(9-12)	< 1%	55%	21%	24%	45%
5	9	Fenerbahce	11.6	(12-12)	< 1%	13%	52%	35%	87%
5	1	Trnava	1.3	(1-1)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
E	Aston Villa	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.53%	100%	99.94%	85%	68%	54%	32%
F	Fiorentina	< 1%	< 1%	21%	79%	100%	95.2%	69%	45%	27%	13%
A	Lille	< 1%	< 1%	5%	95%	100%	98.6%	67%	40%	21%	10%
H	Fenerbahce	< 1%	13%	52%	35%	87%	74%	49%	30%	16%	8%
G	Frankfurt	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	73%	44%	26%	14%	7%
D	Brugge	< 1%	< 1%	9%	91%	100%	96.7%	56%	26%	11%	4.9%
B	Gent	< 1%	< 1%	41%	59%	100%	85%	47%	22%	9%	4.0%
	St Gillis					62%	40%	22%	11%	5%	2.5%
G	PAOK	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	45%	16%	4.6%	1.9%
	Olympiakos					84%	47%	20%	9%	3.4%	1.5%
	Ajax					55%	33%	16%	8%	3.3%	1.5%
B	M Tel Aviv	< 1%	< 1%	59%	41%	100%	71%	30%	11%	3.4%	1.4%
D	Bodoe Glimt	< 1%	< 1%	91%	9%	100%	57%	24%	10%	3.2%	1.4%
E	Alkmaar	1.6%	53%	45%	< 1%	45%	28%	14%	6%	2.6%	1.1%
C	Viktoria Plzen	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	37%	10%	2.4%	< 1%
H	Nordsjaelland	< 1%	32%	27%	41%	68%	54%	23%	8%	2.4%	< 1%
F	Genk	< 1%	56%	44%	< 1%	44%	27%	12%	5%	2.0%	< 1%
	Panathinaikos					74%	37%	14%	5%	1.7%	< 1%
	Sturm Graz					55%	29%	12%	4.7%	1.6%	< 1%
	Sparta Praha					41%	23%	10%	4.2%	1.6%	< 1%
	Rangers					39%	21%	9%	4.0%	1.5%	< 1%
	Freiburg					10%	7%	4.3%	2.5%	1.3%	< 1%
	Betis					8%	6%	3.6%	2.3%	1.3%	< 1%
	AEK					45%	23%	9%	3.5%	1.2%	< 1%
C	Dinamo Zagreb	1.1%	6%	93%	< 1%	93%	40%	13%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%
	Molde					95.3%	39%	12%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Razgrad	< 1%	55%	21%	24%	45%	31%	9%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Ferencvaros	< 1%	44%	35%	21%	56%	33%	9%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Rakow					45%	19%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
	Servette					100%	33%	8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
	Maccabi Haifa					26%	12%	4.3%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
	LASK					32%	13%	4.0%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Legia	< 1%	45%	54%	< 1%	55%	19%	4.9%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Slovan Bratislava	< 1%	< 1%	95%	5%	100%	27%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Toulouse					6%	2.9%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Aris Limassol					13%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Karabakh Agdam					4.7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Ballkani	85%	9%	6%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Backa Topola					5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	FK Astana	14%	85%	1.1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	West Ham					< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	89%	20.99	13.5	28.25
GER	47%	18.52	13.21	26.21
ITA	41%	18.34	12.71	27.57
ESP	13%	16.98	11.94	24.06
FRA	7%	15.93	10.25	25.08
BEL	1.3%	14.57	10.2	23
CZE	< 1%	13.52	9.5	22.25
TUR	< 1%	12.96	9	20.5
NED	< 1%	11.62	8	21.2
GRE	< 1%	10.58	7.2	18.8