CL: Big decider when Galatasaray travel to Copenhagen

Twelve teams have qualified for the knockout stage after five matches. On this half Group A is wide open and Group C is still not entirely decided.

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	13	Bayern	14.5	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	5	FC Kobenhavn	6.4	(5-8)	21%	24%	55%	< 1%	55%
5	5	Galatasaray	6.3	(5-8)	21%	42%	36%	< 1%	36%
5	4	Man United	5.2	(4-7)	58%	34%	8%	< 1%	8%

Kobenhavn play Galatasaray in Copenhagen in a match that will be a decider. The winner proceed to the knockout stage. If it's a draw, Man United clinch a place in the knockout stage if they beat Bayern (at home). If Man United fail to win, Kobenhavn take the runner-up place if the score is 2-2 (or fewer goals) and Galatasaray take the runner-up place if the score is 3-3 (or more goals).

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	12	Arsenal	13.6	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	8	PSV	9.2	(8-11)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
5	5	Lens	6.7	(5-8)	27%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	2	Sevilla	3	(2-5)	73%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	15	Real Madrid	17	(16-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	7	Napoli	9.3	(8-10)	< 1%	3.5%	96.5%	< 1%	96.5%
5	4	Braga	4.5	(4-5)	14%	83%	3.5%	< 1%	3.5%
5	2	Union Berlin	2.8	(2-3)	86%	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Braga need to beat Napoli (away) and they need a result better that 1-2, i.e., they need to win with 2-0 or 3-2.

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	11	Sociedad	11.8	(11-12)	< 1%	< 1%	59%	41%	100%
5	11	Inter	13	(12-14)	< 1%	< 1%	41%	59%	100%
5	4	Salzburg	5.5	(4-7)	16%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Benfica	2.3	(1-4)	84%	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	86%	67%	51%	30%
A	Bayern	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	71%	43%	24%	12%
C	Real Madrid	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	74%	43%	24%	12%
B	Arsenal	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	69%	38%	20%	10%
D	Inter	< 1%	< 1%	41%	59%	100%	58%	30%	14%	7%
H	Barcelona	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	100%	63%	30%	13%	6%
E	Atletico	< 1%	< 1%	19%	81%	100%	57%	26%	11%	5.0%
F	Dortmund	< 1%	< 1%	27%	73%	100%	53%	22%	8%	3.7%
C	Napoli	< 1%	3.5%	96.5%	< 1%	96.5%	40%	19%	8%	3.7%
G	RB Leipzig	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	41%	17%	6%	2.8%
D	Sociedad	< 1%	< 1%	59%	41%	100%	39%	14%	4.7%	2.1%
F	Paris SG	< 1%	51%	22%	27%	49%	23%	10%	3.5%	1.6%
F	Newcastle	24%	37%	39%	< 1%	39%	17%	8%	3.4%	1.6%
H	Porto	< 1%	11%	89%	< 1%	89%	28%	10%	3.3%	1.5%
E	Lazio	< 1%	< 1%	81%	19%	100%	29%	9%	2.4%	1.1%
B	PSV	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	28%	9%	2.4%	1.0%
A	Galatasaray	21%	42%	36%	< 1%	36%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Milan	76%	12%	12%	< 1%	12%	3.9%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Man United	58%	34%	8%	< 1%	8%	3.1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	FC Kobenhavn	21%	24%	55%	< 1%	55%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Shakhtar	< 1%	89%	11%	< 1%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Braga	14%	83%	3.5%	< 1%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	88%	20.85	13.13	27.75
GER	51%	18.7	13.36	26.5
ITA	40%	18.33	12	26.86
ESP	13%	17.03	12.06	24.06
FRA	6%	15.65	9.08	24.92
BEL	1.6%	14.64	9	23.6
TUR	< 1%	13.82	9	21
CZE	< 1%	12.48	7.5	22.25
NED	< 1%	11.49	7.6	22
GRE	< 1%	10.59	6.6	20
POR	< 1%	9.53	5.5	18