CL: Open between Newcastle and Paris SG after last-minute penalty.

Groups E and G are done and in Group F Dortmund have clinched a place in the knockout stage.

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	11	Atletico	13	(12-14)	< 1%	< 1%	19%	81%	100%
5	10	Lazio	10.8	(10-11)	< 1%	< 1%	81%	19%	100%
5	6	Feyenoord	7.5	(6-9)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Celtic	2.2	(1-4)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	10	Dortmund	11.7	(10-13)	< 1%	< 1%	27%	73%	100%
5	7	Paris SG	8	(7-10)	< 1%	51%	22%	27%	49%
5	5	Newcastle	6.8	(6-8)	24%	37%	39%	< 1%	39%
5	5	Milan	5.9	(5-6)	76%	12%	12%	< 1%	12%

Paris clinch knockout stage if they beat Dortmund, if Newcastle and Milan draw, or if they draw Dortmund and Milan beat Newcastle.

Newcastle clinch knockout stage if they beat Milan (at home) and Paris do not beat Dortmund.

Milan clinch knockout stage if the beat Newcastle (away) and Dortmund beat Paris SG.

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	15	Man City	17.5	(18-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	9	RB Leipzig	11.4	(10-12)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
5	4	Young Boys	4.5	(4-5)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Crvena Zvezda	1.4	(1-1)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	12	Barcelona	14	(13-15)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	100%
5	9	Porto	11.4	(10-12)	< 1%	11%	89%	< 1%	89%
5	9	Shakhtar	9.5	(9-10)	< 1%	89%	11%	< 1%	11%
5	0	Antwerp	0.8	(0-1)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Porto clinch knockout stage if the at least draw (at home) against Shakhtar. Shakhtar need to win against Porto to reach the knockout stage.

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	86%	67%	51%	30%
A	Bayern	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	72%	43%	24%	12%
C	Real Madrid	< 1%	< 1%	4.7%	95.3%	100%	72%	42%	23%	11%
B	Arsenal	< 1%	1.2%	5%	93%	98.8%	67%	37%	19%	9%
D	Inter	< 1%	< 1%	36%	64%	100%	59%	30%	14%	7%
H	Barcelona	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	100%	62%	30%	13%	6%
E	Atletico	< 1%	< 1%	19%	81%	100%	56%	26%	11%	5.0%
F	Dortmund	< 1%	< 1%	27%	73%	100%	53%	22%	8%	3.7%
C	Napoli	< 1%	5%	90%	4.7%	95%	41%	19%	8%	3.7%
G	RB Leipzig	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	41%	17%	6%	2.8%
D	Sociedad	< 1%	< 1%	64%	36%	100%	38%	14%	4.6%	2.1%
F	Paris SG	< 1%	51%	22%	27%	49%	23%	9%	3.5%	1.6%
F	Newcastle	24%	37%	39%	< 1%	39%	18%	8%	3.4%	1.6%
H	Porto	< 1%	11%	89%	< 1%	89%	28%	10%	3.4%	1.5%
E	Lazio	< 1%	< 1%	81%	19%	100%	29%	9%	2.4%	1.1%
A	Man United	39%	34%	28%	< 1%	28%	11%	3.9%	1.3%	< 1%
B	PSV	18%	35%	44%	3.3%	48%	14%	4.2%	1.2%	< 1%
B	Lens	25%	40%	31%	3.4%	35%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Galatasaray	24%	35%	41%	< 1%	41%	8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Milan	76%	12%	12%	< 1%	12%	4.0%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Sevilla	57%	24%	19%	< 1%	19%	3.9%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
A	FC Kobenhavn	37%	31%	32%	< 1%	32%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Shakhtar	< 1%	89%	11%	< 1%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Braga	27%	67%	5%	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%