PL: Man United hottest team with four wins in the last five matches.

A couple of important matches coming up this weekend. Man City vs Spurs is important for the title race. Newcast vs United is important for the CL/EL/ECL races. Burnley vs Sheffield United is critical for the relegation race.

 

Hot Teams
Man United: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Aston Villa: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Everton: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected
Brentford: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected

Cold Teams
Burnley: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 5.0 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Tottenham: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Brighton: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 less than expected
Forest: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
29	Man City	85.6	+60	< 1%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.90%	99.59%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	99.89%
28	Liverpool	77.5	+42	< 1%	99.66%	98.8%	96.6%	91%	13%	< 1%	2.6%	96.9%
30	Arsenal	76.4	+37	< 1%	99.42%	98.2%	95%	88%	10%	< 1%	4.7%	94%
28	Aston Villa	68.6	+23	< 1%	91%	82%	66%	43%	< 1%	3.4%	30%	62%
26	Tottenham	67.2	+19	< 1%	88%	75%	56%	34%	< 1%	6%	32%	52%
23	Newcastle	66.0	+31	< 1%	85%	71%	51%	29%	< 1%	9%	31%	49%
24	Man United	61.1	+4	< 1%	55%	34%	19%	8%	< 1%	13%	32%	19%
22	Brighton	59.0	+9	< 1%	43%	24%	12%	4.9%	< 1%	12%	25%	17%
20	West Ham	54.1	-1	< 1%	16%	7%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	11%	8%
16	Brentford	52.7	+4	< 1%	12%	5%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	9%	1.6%
16	Chelsea	50.8	+2	< 1%	7%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	6%	< 1%
15	Crystal Palace	46.4	-11	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	1.8%	< 1%
15	Wolves	46.1	-12	1.0%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	1.3%	< 1%
15	Fulham	46.0	-15	1.3%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	1.9%	< 1%
13	Forest	40.3	-17	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%
12	Bournemouth	36.2	-32	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Everton	31.4	-19	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	3.7%	< 1%
4	Burnley	30.4	-37	61%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Luton	29.6	-37	67%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Sheffield United	26.0	-48	86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	90%	47%	9%		30%	9%
Liverpool	72%	26%	3.7%	< 1%	1.2%
Arsenal	25%	2.4%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	33%	1.3%	< 1%		< 1%
Tottenham	9%	< 1%			< 1%
Newcastle	25%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	11%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brentford	< 1%	< 1%			< 1%
Chelsea	12%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Fulham	7%	< 1%
Forest	1.7%
Bournemouth	< 1%
Everton	11%	< 1%
Burnley	< 1%
Luton	< 1%
Sheffield United	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Tottenham (2%)	Home Win (71%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (12%)
Man City	79%	70%	64%
Liverpool	11%	16%	18%
Arsenal	8%	12%	14%
Tottenham	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%

	Man City			Liverpool			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
98	1.0%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
97	1.8%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%
96	3.0%	1.2%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%
95	4.8%	1.7%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	98%
94	7%	2.5%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	94%
93	10%	3.1%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	92%
92	14%	4.0%	99.3%	< 1%	< 1%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	88%
91	19%	4.8%	98.7%	1.3%	< 1%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	83%
90	25%	6%	97.9%	2.1%	< 1%	79%	1.5%	< 1%	79%
89	31%	6%	96.3%	3.2%	1.1%	73%	2.2%	< 1%	72%
88	38%	7%	94%	4.7%	1.5%	66%	3.3%	1.1%	65%
87	45%	7%	92%	7%	2.0%	58%	4.8%	1.5%	56%
86	52%	7%	88%	9%	2.5%	49%	7%	2.0%	47%
85	59%	7%	83%	12%	3.2%	42%	9%	2.5%	39%
84	66%	7%	77%	16%	3.9%	34%	12%	3.1%	31%
83	72%	6%	69%	21%	4.5%	26%	16%	3.8%	24%
82	78%	6%	61%	26%	5%	19%	21%	4.4%	17%
81	82%	4.8%	53%	32%	6%	14%	26%	5%	12%
80	86%	4.1%	43%	38%	6%	10%	31%	6%	8%
79	90%	3.4%	34%	44%	6%	6%	37%	6%	5%
78	93%	2.7%	25%	51%	6%	3.8%	44%	6%	3.0%
77	95%	2.1%	18%	57%	6%	2.3%	50%	6%	1.7%
76	96.2%	1.6%	11%	63%	6%	1.2%	57%	6%	< 1%
75	97.4%	1.2%	7%	69%	6%	< 1%	63%	6%	< 1%
74	98.2%	< 1%	4%	75%	5%	< 1%	69%	6%	< 1%
73	98.9%	< 1%	2%	79%	4.8%	< 1%	74%	5%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Newcastle vs Man United (3%)	Home Win (56%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (22%)
Newcastle	55%	44%	38%
Man United	15%	20%	28%

	Liverpool			Arsenal			Aston Villa			Tottenham			Newcastle			Man United			Brighton			West Ham			Brentford
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
83	21%	4.5%	100%	16%	3.8%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
82	26%	5%	100%	21%	4.4%	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
81	32%	6%	>99.99%	26%	5%	>99.99%	2.8%	< 1%	99.9%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
80	38%	6%	>99.99%	31%	6%	100%	4.1%	1.2%	99.9%	2.3%	< 1%	99.9%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
79	44%	6%	>99.99%	37%	6%	>99.99%	6%	1.6%	99.9%	3.3%	1.1%	99.9%	2.0%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
78	51%	6%	>99.99%	44%	6%	99.98%	8%	2.1%	99.9%	4.8%	1.4%	99.9%	3.0%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	57%	6%	99.96%	50%	6%	99.94%	10%	2.6%	99.7%	7%	1.9%	99.7%	4.4%	1.3%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	63%	6%	99.9%	57%	6%	99.8%	14%	3.2%	99.3%	9%	2.4%	99.2%	6%	1.8%	99.4%	1.1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	69%	6%	99.8%	63%	6%	99.7%	17%	3.8%	98.8%	12%	3.0%	98.5%	8%	2.3%	98.8%	1.7%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	99%
74	75%	5%	99.5%	69%	6%	99.3%	22%	4.4%	97.9%	16%	3.6%	97.3%	11%	2.8%	97.7%	2.5%	< 1%	96%	1.1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	96%
73	79%	4.8%	98.9%	74%	5%	98.5%	27%	5.0%	96.1%	20%	4.2%	95%	15%	3.5%	96%	3.6%	1.1%	93%	1.7%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	95%
72	84%	4.3%	97.9%	79%	4.9%	97.3%	32%	6%	94%	25%	4.8%	92%	19%	4.1%	93%	5%	1.4%	89%	2.5%	< 1%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	93%
71	87%	3.6%	96.5%	83%	4.3%	95%	38%	6%	90%	30%	5%	88%	23%	4.7%	90%	7%	1.9%	82%	3.5%	1.1%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	83%
70	90%	3.0%	93%	87%	3.7%	91%	44%	6%	84%	36%	6%	81%	29%	5%	84%	9%	2.4%	75%	5.0%	1.4%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	76%
69	93%	2.4%	90%	90%	3.1%	86%	51%	6%	77%	42%	6%	73%	34%	6%	77%	12%	2.9%	64%	7%	1.8%	67%	1.1%	< 1%	66%	< 1%	< 1%	68%
68	95%	1.9%	84%	93%	2.5%	79%	57%	6%	68%	48%	6%	64%	40%	6%	68%	16%	3.5%	53%	9%	2.3%	56%	1.7%	< 1%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	56%
67	96.2%	1.5%	77%	95%	2.0%	69%	63%	6%	58%	55%	6%	53%	47%	6%	58%	20%	4.1%	41%	12%	2.9%	44%	2.5%	< 1%	42%	1.4%	< 1%	43%
66	97.3%	1.1%	69%	96.1%	1.5%	58%	69%	6%	46%	61%	6%	41%	53%	6%	47%	24%	4.7%	30%	15%	3.4%	34%	3.5%	1.1%	31%	2.1%	< 1%	30%
65	98.2%	< 1%	60%	97.3%	1.1%	46%	74%	5%	35%	67%	6%	31%	59%	6%	37%	30%	5%	21%	19%	4.0%	25%	4.9%	1.4%	22%	3.0%	< 1%	20%
64	98.8%	< 1%	52%	98.1%	< 1%	36%	79%	4.8%	24%	73%	6%	21%	66%	6%	27%	35%	6%	14%	24%	4.6%	18%	7%	1.8%	15%	4.3%	1.2%	12%
63	99.20%	< 1%	43%	98.8%	< 1%	25%	83%	4.3%	16%	78%	5%	13%	71%	6%	19%	41%	6%	9%	29%	5%	14%	9%	2.3%	10%	6%	1.7%	6%
62	99.49%	< 1%	38%	99.19%	< 1%	19%	87%	3.7%	9%	82%	4.5%	7%	76%	5%	13%	48%	6%	6%	35%	6%	10%	12%	2.8%	8%	8%	2.2%	3%
61	99.69%	< 1%	37%	99.48%	< 1%	14%	90%	3.1%	5%	86%	3.9%	3.8%	81%	4.6%	9%	54%	6%	4.2%	41%	6%	9%	15%	3.4%	6%	11%	2.6%	1.3%
60	99.81%	< 1%	32%	99.67%	< 1%	11%	93%	2.5%	2.3%	89%	3.3%	1.7%	85%	4.0%	7%	60%	6%	3.4%	47%	6%	8%	19%	4.0%	6%	14%	3.2%	< 1%
59	99.88%	< 1%	33%	99.80%	< 1%	11%	95%	2.0%	< 1%	92%	2.7%	< 1%	88%	3.4%	5%	66%	6%	2.9%	53%	6%	7%	24%	4.6%	5%	18%	3.8%	< 1%
58	99.93%	< 1%	35%	99.88%	< 1%	10%	96.1%	1.6%	< 1%	94%	2.2%	< 1%	91%	2.8%	5%	72%	6%	2.8%	59%	6%	8%	29%	5%	5%	22%	4.5%	< 1%
57	99.96%	< 1%	28%	99.93%	< 1%	9%	97.3%	1.2%	< 1%	95.8%	1.6%	< 1%	94%	2.3%	5%	77%	5%	2.6%	65%	6%	7%	35%	6%	5%	27%	5.0%	< 1%
56	99.98%	< 1%	28%	99.96%	< 1%	10%	98.1%	< 1%	< 1%	97.1%	1.3%	< 1%	95.3%	1.8%	4%	81%	4.6%	2.7%	71%	6%	7%	41%	6%	5%	33%	6%	< 1%
55	99.99%	< 1%	32%	99.98%	< 1%	13%	98.8%	< 1%	< 1%	98.0%	< 1%	< 1%	96.7%	1.4%	4%	85%	4.0%	2.8%	76%	5%	7%	47%	6%	5%	39%	6%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Man United (2.9%)	Home Win (56%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (22%)
Newcastle	85%	77%	72%
Man United	45%	52%	62%

	Arsenal			Aston Villa			Tottenham			Newcastle			Man United			Brighton			West Ham			Brentford			Chelsea			Everton			Fulham			Crystal Palace			Forest			Wolves
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
80	31%	6%	100%	4.1%	1.2%	100%	2.3%	< 1%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
79	37%	6%	100%	6%	1.6%	100%	3.3%	1.1%	100%	2.0%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
78	44%	6%	100%	8%	2.1%	100%	4.8%	1.4%	100%	3.0%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	50%	6%	>99.99%	10%	2.6%	100%	7%	1.9%	100%	4.4%	1.3%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	57%	6%	100%	14%	3.2%	>99.99%	9%	2.4%	>99.99%	6%	1.8%	>99.99%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	63%	6%	100%	17%	3.8%	>99.99%	12%	3.0%	99.99%	8%	2.3%	>99.99%	1.7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	69%	6%	>99.99%	22%	4.4%	99.97%	16%	3.6%	99.97%	11%	2.8%	99.9%	2.5%	< 1%	99.9%	1.1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	74%	5%	99.98%	27%	5.0%	99.95%	20%	4.2%	99.9%	15%	3.5%	99.9%	3.6%	1.1%	99.8%	1.7%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	79%	4.9%	99.97%	32%	6%	99.9%	25%	4.8%	99.8%	19%	4.1%	99.9%	5%	1.4%	99.5%	2.5%	< 1%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	83%	4.3%	99.8%	38%	6%	99.8%	30%	5%	99.6%	23%	4.7%	99.7%	7%	1.9%	99.2%	3.5%	1.1%	99.1%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	87%	3.7%	99.7%	44%	6%	99.5%	36%	6%	99.4%	29%	5%	99.4%	9%	2.4%	98.4%	5.0%	1.4%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	90%	3.1%	99.3%	51%	6%	99.2%	42%	6%	98.7%	34%	6%	98.9%	12%	2.9%	97.1%	7%	1.8%	97%	1.1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	93%	2.5%	98.8%	57%	6%	98.5%	48%	6%	97.6%	40%	6%	97.9%	16%	3.5%	95%	9%	2.3%	95%	1.7%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	92%
67	95%	2.0%	98%	63%	6%	97.3%	55%	6%	96.1%	47%	6%	96.5%	20%	4.1%	92%	12%	2.9%	92%	2.5%	< 1%	91%	1.4%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	91%
66	96.1%	1.5%	96%	69%	6%	95.6%	61%	6%	93%	53%	6%	94%	24%	4.7%	88%	15%	3.4%	88%	3.5%	1.1%	86%	2.1%	< 1%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	88%
65	97.3%	1.1%	93%	74%	5%	93%	67%	6%	90%	59%	6%	91%	30%	5%	83%	19%	4.0%	83%	4.9%	1.4%	79%	3.0%	< 1%	81%	1.5%	< 1%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	82%
64	98.1%	< 1%	88%	79%	4.8%	89%	73%	6%	85%	66%	6%	86%	35%	6%	76%	24%	4.6%	76%	7%	1.8%	72%	4.3%	1.2%	71%	2.2%	< 1%	72%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	70%
63	98.8%	< 1%	81%	83%	4.3%	85%	78%	5%	78%	71%	6%	80%	41%	6%	67%	29%	5%	68%	9%	2.3%	61%	6%	1.7%	62%	3.2%	< 1%	63%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	59%	< 1%	< 1%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	68%	< 1%	< 1%	58%
62	99.19%	< 1%	73%	87%	3.7%	78%	82%	4.5%	70%	76%	5%	73%	48%	6%	58%	35%	6%	59%	12%	2.8%	51%	8%	2.2%	50%	4.5%	1.3%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	50%	< 1%	< 1%	49%	< 1%	< 1%	47%
61	99.48%	< 1%	65%	90%	3.1%	72%	86%	3.9%	60%	81%	4.6%	63%	54%	6%	48%	41%	6%	50%	15%	3.4%	41%	11%	2.6%	40%	6%	1.7%	41%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.2%	< 1%	35%	1.2%	< 1%	38%	< 1%	< 1%	37%	< 1%	< 1%	37%
60	99.67%	< 1%	54%	93%	2.5%	64%	89%	3.3%	50%	85%	4.0%	53%	60%	6%	39%	47%	6%	41%	19%	4.0%	31%	14%	3.2%	29%	8%	2.2%	30%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.7%	< 1%	25%	1.8%	< 1%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	29%	1.5%	< 1%	27%
59	99.80%	< 1%	46%	95%	2.0%	57%	92%	2.7%	41%	88%	3.4%	43%	66%	6%	30%	53%	6%	32%	24%	4.6%	23%	18%	3.8%	20%	11%	2.7%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.5%	< 1%	16%	2.6%	< 1%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	2.2%	< 1%	17%
58	99.88%	< 1%	40%	96.1%	1.6%	49%	94%	2.2%	31%	91%	2.8%	33%	72%	6%	22%	59%	6%	25%	29%	5%	17%	22%	4.5%	13%	14%	3.3%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.5%	1.1%	10%	3.7%	1.1%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	3.2%	< 1%	11%
57	99.93%	< 1%	30%	97.3%	1.2%	44%	95.8%	1.6%	23%	94%	2.3%	24%	77%	5%	16%	65%	6%	20%	35%	6%	13%	27%	5.0%	8%	18%	3.9%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.9%	1.4%	6%	5%	1.5%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	4.5%	1.3%	6%
56	99.96%	< 1%	23%	98.1%	< 1%	40%	97.1%	1.3%	17%	95.3%	1.8%	18%	81%	4.6%	12%	71%	6%	16%	41%	6%	10%	33%	6%	5.0%	23%	4.5%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	-	7%	1.8%	3%	7%	1.9%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	6%	1.7%	3%
55	99.98%	< 1%	27%	98.8%	< 1%	36%	98.0%	< 1%	13%	96.7%	1.4%	13%	85%	4.0%	9%	76%	5%	13%	47%	6%	9%	39%	6%	2.8%	28%	5%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	-	9%	2.2%	2.0%	9%	2.4%	2.0%	1.2%	< 1%	3%	8%	2.2%	1.6%
54	>99.99%	< 1%	14%	99.20%	< 1%	35%	98.7%	< 1%	11%	97.7%	1.0%	10%	89%	3.4%	8%	81%	4.6%	12%	53%	6%	8%	45%	6%	1.9%	33%	6%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	12%	2.8%	1.3%	12%	2.9%	1.0%	1.8%	< 1%	2%	11%	2.8%	< 1%
53	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.49%	< 1%	33%	99.14%	< 1%	10%	98.5%	< 1%	9%	92%	2.8%	7%	85%	4.1%	11%	60%	6%	7%	51%	6%	1.3%	39%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	15%	3.4%	1.1%	16%	3.6%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	2%	15%	3.4%	< 1%
52	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.69%	< 1%	34%	99.46%	< 1%	9%	99.0%	< 1%	7%	94%	2.2%	7%	88%	3.5%	11%	66%	6%	7%	57%	6%	1.0%	45%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	19%	4.0%	< 1%	20%	4.2%	< 1%	3.7%	1.1%	2%	19%	4.1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Man United (2.1%)	Home Win (56%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (22%)
Man United	59%	64%	73%
Newcastle	92%	88%	84%

	Aston Villa			Tottenham			Newcastle			Man United			Brighton			West Ham			Chelsea			Brentford			Everton			Fulham			Crystal Palace			Wolves			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
76	14%	3.2%	100%	9%	2.4%	100%	6%	1.8%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	17%	3.8%	>99.99%	12%	3.0%	>99.99%	8%	2.3%	100%	1.7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	22%	4.4%	>99.99%	16%	3.6%	>99.99%	11%	2.8%	99.99%	2.5%	< 1%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	27%	5.0%	99.98%	20%	4.2%	99.97%	15%	3.5%	>99.99%	3.6%	1.1%	99.9%	1.7%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	32%	6%	99.96%	25%	4.8%	99.9%	19%	4.1%	99.9%	5%	1.4%	99.8%	2.5%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	38%	6%	99.9%	30%	5%	99.9%	23%	4.7%	99.9%	7%	1.9%	99.7%	3.5%	1.1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	44%	6%	99.8%	36%	6%	99.8%	29%	5%	99.8%	9%	2.4%	99.3%	5.0%	1.4%	99.4%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	51%	6%	99.7%	42%	6%	99.6%	34%	6%	99.6%	12%	2.9%	98.9%	7%	1.8%	99.0%	1.1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	57%	6%	99.4%	48%	6%	99.1%	40%	6%	99.3%	16%	3.5%	98.1%	9%	2.3%	97.9%	1.7%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	63%	6%	99.0%	55%	6%	98.5%	47%	6%	98.8%	20%	4.1%	96.7%	12%	2.9%	97%	2.5%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	1.4%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	69%	6%	98.2%	61%	6%	97.5%	53%	6%	97.9%	24%	4.7%	95%	15%	3.4%	95%	3.5%	1.1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	2.1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	74%	5%	97.1%	67%	6%	95.7%	59%	6%	96.9%	30%	5%	92%	19%	4.0%	92%	4.9%	1.4%	91%	1.5%	< 1%	93%	3.0%	< 1%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	79%	4.8%	95.4%	73%	6%	93%	66%	6%	95%	35%	6%	89%	24%	4.6%	89%	7%	1.8%	87%	2.2%	< 1%	90%	4.3%	1.2%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	83%	4.3%	93%	78%	5%	90%	71%	6%	92%	41%	6%	84%	29%	5%	84%	9%	2.3%	82%	3.2%	< 1%	85%	6%	1.7%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	83%
62	87%	3.7%	89%	82%	4.5%	85%	76%	5%	88%	48%	6%	78%	35%	6%	78%	12%	2.8%	75%	4.5%	1.3%	78%	8%	2.2%	72%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	73%
61	90%	3.1%	85%	86%	3.9%	79%	81%	4.6%	84%	54%	6%	72%	41%	6%	72%	15%	3.4%	67%	6%	1.7%	71%	11%	2.6%	64%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.2%	< 1%	63%	1.2%	< 1%	61%	< 1%	< 1%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	59%
60	93%	2.5%	80%	89%	3.3%	72%	85%	4.0%	78%	60%	6%	63%	47%	6%	64%	19%	4.0%	58%	8%	2.2%	62%	14%	3.2%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.7%	< 1%	53%	1.8%	< 1%	52%	1.5%	< 1%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	53%
59	95%	2.0%	73%	92%	2.7%	64%	88%	3.4%	71%	66%	6%	54%	53%	6%	56%	24%	4.6%	50%	11%	2.7%	53%	18%	3.8%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.5%	< 1%	43%	2.6%	< 1%	40%	2.2%	< 1%	40%	< 1%	< 1%	43%
58	96.1%	1.6%	66%	94%	2.2%	54%	91%	2.8%	64%	72%	6%	45%	59%	6%	47%	29%	5%	42%	14%	3.3%	44%	22%	4.5%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.5%	1.1%	34%	3.7%	1.1%	31%	3.2%	< 1%	30%	< 1%	< 1%	33%
57	97.3%	1.2%	59%	95.8%	1.6%	44%	94%	2.3%	56%	77%	5%	36%	65%	6%	39%	35%	6%	34%	18%	3.9%	36%	27%	5.0%	26%	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.9%	1.4%	25%	5%	1.5%	22%	4.5%	1.3%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	23%
56	98.1%	< 1%	52%	97.1%	1.3%	34%	95.3%	1.8%	48%	81%	4.6%	28%	71%	6%	31%	41%	6%	27%	23%	4.5%	28%	33%	6%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	-	7%	1.8%	19%	7%	1.9%	14%	6%	1.7%	14%	< 1%	< 1%	17%
55	98.8%	< 1%	46%	98.0%	< 1%	26%	96.7%	1.4%	41%	85%	4.0%	21%	76%	5%	25%	47%	6%	22%	28%	5%	23%	39%	6%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	-	9%	2.2%	14%	9%	2.4%	9%	8%	2.2%	9%	1.2%	< 1%	10%
54	99.20%	< 1%	42%	98.7%	< 1%	20%	97.7%	1.0%	34%	89%	3.4%	15%	81%	4.6%	19%	53%	6%	18%	33%	6%	18%	45%	6%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	12%	2.8%	11%	12%	2.9%	5%	11%	2.8%	5%	1.8%	< 1%	7%
53	99.49%	< 1%	36%	99.14%	< 1%	15%	98.5%	< 1%	31%	92%	2.8%	11%	85%	4.1%	16%	60%	6%	16%	39%	6%	16%	51%	6%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	15%	3.4%	9%	16%	3.6%	3.0%	15%	3.4%	2.9%	2.6%	< 1%	4%
52	99.69%	< 1%	36%	99.46%	< 1%	12%	99.0%	< 1%	28%	94%	2.2%	9%	88%	3.5%	13%	66%	6%	14%	45%	6%	14%	57%	6%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	19%	4.0%	8%	20%	4.2%	1.8%	19%	4.1%	1.6%	3.7%	1.1%	3%
51	99.81%	< 1%	32%	99.68%	< 1%	10%	99.36%	< 1%	27%	95.6%	1.8%	7%	91%	2.9%	12%	71%	6%	14%	52%	6%	13%	63%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	24%	4.5%	7%	25%	4.8%	1.2%	23%	4.7%	< 1%	5%	1.4%	2%
50	99.89%	< 1%	34%	99.81%	< 1%	10%	99.61%	< 1%	26%	96.9%	1.3%	6%	93%	2.3%	11%	76%	5%	13%	58%	6%	13%	69%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	29%	5%	7%	30%	5%	< 1%	29%	5%	< 1%	7%	1.9%	1.8%
49	99.94%	< 1%	30%	99.89%	< 1%	10%	99.76%	< 1%	26%	97.9%	< 1%	6%	95.2%	1.8%	11%	81%	4.7%	13%	64%	6%	13%	75%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	34%	6%	7%	36%	6%	< 1%	34%	6%	< 1%	9%	2.3%	1.8%
48	99.97%	< 1%	34%	99.94%	< 1%	9%	99.85%	< 1%	25%	98.6%	< 1%	6%	96.6%	1.4%	11%	85%	4.0%	12%	70%	6%	12%	80%	4.9%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	40%	6%	7%	42%	6%	< 1%	41%	6%	< 1%	12%	2.9%	1.8%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Burnley vs Sheffield United (3.5%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Burnley	45%	34%	27%
Sheffield United	10%	15%	23%
Forest vs Everton (3.2%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (29%)
Everton	42%	49%	61%
Forest	95.5%	91%	87%

	Sheffield United			Luton			Burnley			Everton			Bournemouth			Forest			Fulham			Wolves
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.2%	< 1%	100%	6%	1.7%	100%	20%	4.1%	100%	53%	6%	100%	54%	7%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	1.7%	< 1%	100%	8%	2.2%	100%	25%	4.7%	100%	59%	6%	100%	60%	6%	100%
44	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.6%	< 1%	100%	2.5%	< 1%	100%	11%	2.7%	>99.99%	30%	5%	100%	65%	6%	100%	66%	6%	100%
43	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	1.4%	< 1%	100%	2.4%	< 1%	100%	3.6%	1.1%	100%	14%	3.3%	>99.99%	36%	6%	>99.99%	71%	6%	100%	72%	6%	100%
42	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.1%	< 1%	99.9%	3.4%	1.0%	99.9%	5%	1.4%	>99.99%	18%	4.0%	99.99%	42%	6%	>99.99%	76%	5%	>99.99%	77%	5%	100%
41	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%	3.1%	< 1%	99.9%	4.8%	1.4%	99.9%	7%	1.9%	99.98%	23%	4.6%	99.97%	48%	6%	99.99%	81%	4.8%	>99.99%	82%	4.7%	>99.99%
40	1.1%	< 1%	99.7%	4.4%	1.3%	99.7%	7%	1.8%	99.7%	9%	2.3%	99.9%	28%	5%	99.9%	54%	6%	99.96%	85%	4.1%	99.9%	86%	4.1%	99.9%
39	1.7%	< 1%	99%	6%	1.7%	98.9%	9%	2.3%	99.0%	12%	2.9%	99.7%	34%	6%	99.6%	61%	6%	99.8%	89%	3.5%	99.8%	90%	3.4%	99.9%
38	2.5%	< 1%	97%	8%	2.3%	97%	12%	2.9%	97.6%	16%	3.5%	98.8%	40%	6%	98.9%	67%	6%	99.5%	91%	2.9%	99.4%	92%	2.8%	99.6%
37	3.6%	1.1%	93%	11%	2.9%	94%	15%	3.5%	95%	20%	4.1%	97.2%	47%	7%	97.4%	73%	6%	98.6%	94%	2.3%	98.5%	95%	2.2%	98.7%
36	5%	1.5%	87%	15%	3.5%	89%	20%	4.2%	90%	25%	4.8%	94%	54%	7%	94%	78%	5%	96.8%	95.6%	1.8%	96%	96.2%	1.7%	97%
35	7%	2.0%	77%	19%	4.3%	81%	24%	4.8%	82%	30%	5%	88%	60%	7%	89%	83%	4.7%	93%	97.0%	1.4%	92%	97.5%	1.2%	93%
34	10%	2.5%	65%	24%	5.0%	71%	30%	5%	73%	36%	6%	80%	67%	6%	81%	87%	4.0%	87%	98.0%	1.0%	84%	98.3%	< 1%	86%
33	13%	3.1%	51%	30%	6%	58%	36%	6%	60%	42%	6%	70%	73%	6%	71%	90%	3.3%	78%	98.7%	< 1%	75%	99.0%	< 1%	76%
32	17%	3.8%	38%	36%	6%	45%	42%	6%	47%	49%	6%	57%	78%	6%	58%	93%	2.7%	66%	99.19%	< 1%	61%	99.37%	< 1%	63%
31	21%	4.5%	25%	43%	7%	32%	49%	7%	34%	55%	7%	44%	83%	4.8%	45%	95%	2.1%	52%	99.51%	< 1%	48%	99.63%	< 1%	50%
30	26%	5%	16%	50%	7%	22%	55%	7%	23%	62%	6%	31%	87%	4.1%	32%	96.5%	1.6%	38%	99.72%	< 1%	33%	99.80%	< 1%	35%
29	32%	6%	9%	57%	7%	13%	62%	7%	15%	68%	6%	20%	91%	3.4%	21%	97.7%	1.2%	25%	99.84%	< 1%	21%	99.89%	< 1%	22%
28	39%	6%	4.6%	64%	7%	7%	68%	6%	8%	73%	6%	12%	93%	2.7%	12%	98.5%	< 1%	15%	99.92%	< 1%	12%	99.94%	< 1%	12%
27	45%	7%	2.0%	70%	7%	3.7%	74%	6%	4.2%	79%	5%	7%	95.5%	2.1%	7%	99.11%	< 1%	9%	99.96%	< 1%	6%	99.97%	< 1%	7%
26	52%	7%	< 1%	76%	6%	1.7%	79%	5%	1.9%	83%	4.6%	3.3%	97.1%	1.5%	3%	99.48%	< 1%	3%	99.98%	< 1%	1%	99.99%	< 1%	2%
25	59%	7%	< 1%	82%	5%	< 1%	84%	4.7%	< 1%	87%	3.9%	1.5%	98.2%	1.1%	1%	99.71%	< 1%	2%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-
24	66%	7%	< 1%	86%	4.6%	< 1%	88%	3.9%	< 1%	91%	3.3%	< 1%	98.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.84%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-
23	73%	6%	< 1%	90%	3.8%	< 1%	91%	3.2%	< 1%	93%	2.6%	< 1%	99.37%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-
22	78%	6%	< 1%	93%	3.0%	< 1%	94%	2.6%	< 1%	95.2%	2.1%	< 1%	99.66%	< 1%	< 1%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-
21	83%	5%	< 1%	95.6%	2.3%	< 1%	95.7%	2.0%	< 1%	96.8%	1.6%	< 1%	99.82%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
20	88%	4.3%	< 1%	97.2%	1.6%	< 1%	97.2%	1.4%	< 1%	97.9%	1.1%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
19	91%	3.5%	< 1%	98.3%	1.1%	< 1%	98.2%	1.0%	< 1%	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	>99.99%	>99.99%	83%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	66%
League cup winners	100%	66%	57%
Sixth team	98.4%	95.4%	3.5%
Seventh team	87%	65%	3.4%
Eighth team	53%	12%	3.1%

Simulated points for winner: 84 - 90
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 31 - 35

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Arsenal	72%	16%	12%	Wolves
Burnley	57%	22%	21%	Sheffield United
Brentford	72%	16%	11%	Luton
Forest	47%	24%	29%	Everton
Newcastle	56%	22%	22%	Man United
Chelsea	44%	24%	32%	Brighton
Liverpool	74%	16%	11%	Fulham
West Ham	52%	23%	25%	Crystal Palace
Bournemouth	25%	23%	52%	Aston Villa
Man City	71%	17%	12%	Tottenham