PL: No team is invincible in premier league

Simulations are now incorporating that two associations will be given an extra CL place based on the results in this year's tournaments. Given the current results, Premier League is rewarded in 88% of the simulations, which means that the 5th team is given a spot in CL 24/25.  

Hot Teams
Chelsea: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Tottenham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 more than expected
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected
Wolves: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected
Newcastle: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Brighton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Burnley: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Fulham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
Luton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
27	Man City	87.7	+62	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	99.78%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	99.95%
24	Liverpool	76.4	+39	< 1%	99.39%	98.2%	95%	88%	8%	< 1%	3.5%	95.8%
24	Arsenal	74.4	+36	< 1%	98.7%	96.4%	91%	80%	4.5%	< 1%	7%	91%
26	Tottenham	70.5	+22	< 1%	95%	88%	75%	56%	1.5%	2.9%	20%	73%
20	Newcastle	66.8	+32	< 1%	88%	76%	58%	36%	< 1%	7%	27%	58%
22	Aston Villa	65.7	+20	< 1%	83%	69%	48%	27%	< 1%	5%	39%	45%
18	Man United	59.0	+2	< 1%	43%	25%	12%	5%	< 1%	12%	27%	15%
18	Brighton	58.9	+10	< 1%	44%	26%	13%	5%	< 1%	12%	27%	17%
16	Brentford	54.6	+7	< 1%	21%	10%	4.2%	1.5%	< 1%	10%	15%	3.9%
14	West Ham	51.5	-2	< 1%	10%	4.1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	9%	6%
15	Chelsea	51.3	+3	< 1%	10%	4.1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	8%	1.3%
15	Crystal Palace	49.8	-8	< 1%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.3%	4.8%	< 1%
12	Fulham	45.4	-15	2.7%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	2.1%	< 1%
12	Wolves	45.4	-13	2.4%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	1.4%	< 1%
13	Forest	42.3	-16	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%
11	Everton	40.6	-18	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	3.9%	< 1%
6	Bournemouth	32.3	-37	56%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Burnley	32.2	-36	56%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Luton	28.3	-39	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Sheffield United	27.1	-47	85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	94%	51%	10%		34%	10%
Liverpool	70%	23%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
Arsenal	21%	1.6%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	10%	< 1%			< 1%
Newcastle	26%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	32%	1.1%	< 1%		< 1%
Man United	7%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	10%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brentford	< 1%	< 1%			< 1%
West Ham	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	12%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	< 1%
Fulham	7%	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Forest	1.7%
Everton	11%	< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%
Burnley	< 1%
Luton	< 1%
Sheffield United	< 1%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	>99.99%	>99.99%	89%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	67%
League cup winners	100%	67%	58%
Sixth team	99.04%	97.1%	3.9%
Seventh team	89%	70%	3.3%
Eighth team	56%	13%	2.7%

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 92
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 33 - 37

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Wolves	33%	24%	43%	Tottenham
Arsenal	77%	14%	9%	Burnley
Man United	74%	16%	11%	Luton
Crystal Palace	55%	22%	23%	Everton
Bournemouth	23%	22%	54%	Newcastle
Aston Villa	64%	20%	17%	Fulham
Liverpool	66%	19%	15%	Brentford
West Ham	60%	21%	19%	Forest
Brighton	73%	16%	11%	Sheffield United
Chelsea	19%	21%	61%	Man City