CL: Man City and Leipzig through to knockout stage

Group G determined with Man City and Leipzig through to knockout stage.

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	8	Atletico	11.4	(11-12)	< 1%	13%	25%	62%	87%
4	7	Lazio	9.9	(9-11)	< 1%	35%	42%	22%	64%
4	6	Feyenoord	8.9	(7-10)	2.0%	50%	32%	16%	48%
4	1	Celtic	2.9	(1-4)	97.0%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	7	Dortmund	9.8	(8-11)	5%	20%	20%	55%	75%
4	6	Paris SG	8.6	(7-10)	17%	21%	35%	27%	61%
4	5	Milan	7.6	(6-9)	34%	33%	22%	11%	33%
4	4	Newcastle	7	(5-8)	44%	26%	23%	7%	30%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	12	Man City	16.9	(16-18)	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	97.4%	100%
4	9	RB Leipzig	11.9	(12-12)	< 1%	< 1%	97.4%	2.6%	100%
4	1	Crvena Zvezda	2.3	(1-4)	62%	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	1	Young Boys	3.3	(2-4)	38%	62%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	9	Barcelona	12.9	(12-15)	< 1%	1.2%	27%	72%	98.8%
4	9	Porto	12.2	(12-13)	< 1%	6%	66%	28%	94%
4	6	Shakhtar	8.2	(7-9)	1.8%	91%	7%	< 1%	7%
4	0	Antwerp	1.9	(0-3)	98.2%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	97.4%	100%	85%	66%	51%	30%
A	Bayern	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	98.1%	99.90%	70%	43%	24%	12%
C	Real Madrid	< 1%	< 1%	13%	86%	99.74%	69%	41%	23%	11%
B	Arsenal	< 1%	2.6%	14%	83%	96.9%	63%	36%	19%	9%
D	Inter	< 1%	4.7%	36%	59%	95.2%	55%	29%	14%	6%
H	Barcelona	< 1%	1.2%	27%	72%	98.8%	56%	27%	12%	6%
E	Atletico	< 1%	13%	25%	62%	87%	47%	22%	9%	4.3%
C	Napoli	< 1%	4.2%	82%	13%	95.6%	44%	21%	9%	4.1%
G	RB Leipzig	< 1%	< 1%	97.4%	2.6%	100%	44%	18%	7%	3.1%
F	Dortmund	5%	20%	20%	55%	75%	39%	17%	6%	2.8%
D	Sociedad	< 1%	6%	55%	39%	94%	38%	14%	4.8%	2.1%
F	Paris SG	17%	21%	35%	27%	61%	27%	11%	4.4%	2.0%
H	Porto	< 1%	6%	66%	28%	94%	36%	13%	4.2%	1.9%
F	Newcastle	44%	26%	23%	7%	30%	15%	7%	3.0%	1.4%
A	Man United	14%	40%	45%	< 1%	46%	19%	7%	2.3%	1.0%
F	Milan	34%	33%	22%	11%	33%	14%	6%	2.1%	< 1%
E	Lazio	< 1%	35%	42%	22%	64%	21%	7%	1.8%	< 1%
E	Feyenoord	2.0%	50%	32%	16%	48%	16%	4.8%	1.3%	< 1%
B	Lens	15%	28%	45%	12%	57%	15%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	PSV	37%	36%	24%	3.3%	27%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Galatasaray	18%	37%	44%	< 1%	45%	10%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Sevilla	47%	34%	17%	1.7%	19%	4.5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Salzburg	20%	70%	8%	1.7%	9%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	FC Kobenhavn	68%	23%	9%	< 1%	9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Shakhtar	1.8%	91%	7%	< 1%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Braga	19%	77%	4.0%	< 1%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Benfica	79%	20%	1.2%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Celtic	97.0%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Union Berlin	81%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%