CL: Bayern, Real Madrid, Sociedad and Inter through

Bayern have clinched the group win. Real Madrid, Sociedad, and Inter have clicnhed a place in the knockout stage.

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	12	Bayern	16.1	(15-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
4	4	FC Kobenhavn	5.7	(4-7)	37%	31%	32%	< 1%	32%
4	4	Galatasaray	6.7	(5-8)	24%	35%	41%	< 1%	41%
4	3	Man United	5.7	(4-7)	39%	34%	28%	< 1%	28%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	9	Arsenal	12.8	(12-15)	< 1%	1.2%	5%	93%	98.8%
4	5	PSV	7.4	(6-9)	18%	35%	44%	3.3%	48%
4	5	Lens	7.3	(6-8)	25%	40%	31%	3.4%	35%
4	2	Sevilla	4.6	(3-6)	57%	24%	19%	< 1%	19%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	12	Real Madrid	16	(15-18)	< 1%	< 1%	4.7%	95.3%	100%
4	7	Napoli	10.2	(10-11)	< 1%	5%	90%	4.7%	95%
4	3	Braga	5.2	(4-6)	27%	67%	5%	< 1%	5%
4	1	Union Berlin	2.8	(1-4)	73%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	10	Sociedad	12.9	(11-14)	< 1%	< 1%	64%	36%	100%
4	10	Inter	13.5	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	36%	64%	100%
4	3	Salzburg	5.2	(4-6)	19%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	0	Benfica	2.5	(1-4)	81%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	97.5%	100%	85%	67%	51%	30%
A	Bayern	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	71%	43%	24%	12%
C	Real Madrid	< 1%	< 1%	4.7%	95.3%	100%	72%	43%	23%	12%
B	Arsenal	< 1%	1.2%	5%	93%	98.8%	66%	37%	19%	9%
D	Inter	< 1%	< 1%	36%	64%	100%	59%	30%	14%	7%
H	Barcelona	< 1%	1.2%	27%	72%	98.8%	56%	27%	12%	6%
E	Atletico	< 1%	13%	25%	62%	87%	47%	22%	9%	4.3%
C	Napoli	< 1%	5%	90%	4.7%	95%	42%	20%	8%	3.9%
G	RB Leipzig	< 1%	< 1%	97.5%	2.5%	100%	43%	18%	7%	3.0%
F	Dortmund	5%	20%	20%	55%	75%	40%	17%	6%	2.8%
D	Sociedad	< 1%	< 1%	64%	36%	100%	40%	15%	4.9%	2.1%
F	Paris SG	17%	21%	35%	27%	61%	28%	11%	4.3%	1.9%
H	Porto	< 1%	6%	66%	28%	94%	35%	13%	4.2%	1.8%
F	Newcastle	44%	26%	23%	7%	30%	15%	7%	2.9%	1.3%
F	Milan	34%	33%	22%	11%	33%	14%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
E	Lazio	< 1%	35%	42%	22%	64%	21%	6%	1.8%	< 1%
A	Man United	39%	34%	28%	< 1%	28%	11%	4.0%	1.4%	< 1%
E	Feyenoord	2.0%	50%	32%	16%	48%	15%	4.8%	1.3%	< 1%
B	PSV	18%	35%	44%	3.3%	48%	14%	4.4%	1.2%	< 1%
B	Lens	25%	40%	31%	3.4%	35%	9%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Galatasaray	24%	35%	41%	< 1%	41%	9%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Sevilla	57%	24%	19%	< 1%	19%	4.3%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	FC Kobenhavn	37%	31%	32%	< 1%	32%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Shakhtar	1.8%	91%	7%	< 1%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Braga	27%	67%	5%	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Celtic	97.0%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%