Europe: Premier League, Serie A and Bundesliga favorites to get extra CL spot

 

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	83%	20.65	15.38	26
ITA	56%	19.14	13.71	24.29
GER	42%	18.56	13.21	24.36
ESP	12%	16.99	12.56	21.94
FRA	5%	15.63	9.92	22.08
BEL	2%	14.89	10.2	21.4
TUR	< 1%	13.76	9.25	19.25
CZE	< 1%	12.54	8.75	18.25

 

Europa League

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	9	West Ham	13.4	(12-15)	< 1%	1%	25%	74%	99%
4	9	Freiburg	11.9	(10-13)	< 1%	10%	64%	26%	90%
4	4	Olympiakos	7.3	(7-8)	5%	84%	11%	< 1%	11%
4	1	Backa Topola	1.8	(1-2)	95%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	8	Marseille	10.5	(9-11)	< 1%	10%	51%	38%	90%
4	7	Brighton	10.9	(10-13)	< 1%	8%	32%	60%	92%
4	4	AEK	5.8	(4-7)	50%	40%	8%	2%	10%
4	2	Ajax	4.9	(3-6)	50%	41%	9%	< 1%	9%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	9	Betis	12.6	(12-13)	< 1%	4%	19%	77%	96%
4	7	Rangers	10	(10-11)	< 1%	9%	68%	23%	91%
4	4	Sparta Praha	6.8	(5-8)	24%	67%	8%	< 1%	9%
4	3	Aris Limassol	4.8	(3-6)	76%	20%	4%	< 1%	4%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	10	Atalanta	13.7	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	14%	86%	100%
4	7	Sporting	10.1	(9-11)	< 1%	12%	74%	14%	88%
4	4	Sturm Graz	6.5	(5-7)	12%	76%	12%	< 1%	12%
4	1	Rakow	2.8	(1-4)	88%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	9	Liverpool	13.7	(13-15)	< 1%	< 1%	5%	95%	99%
4	7	Toulouse	9.8	(8-11)	1%	21%	74%	4%	78%
4	4	St Gillis	6.2	(5-7)	28%	50%	21%	< 1%	22%
4	3	LASK	4.6	(3-6)	71%	28%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	9	Rennes	12.1	(11-13)	< 1%	2%	42%	56%	98%
3	6	Villarreal	11.3	(10-13)	2%	10%	45%	44%	89%
4	4	Panathinaikos	6.5	(5-7)	24%	66%	11%	< 1%	11%
3	1	Maccabi Haifa	4	(2-5)	75%	23%	2%	< 1%	2%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	9	Slavia Praha	12.9	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	50%	50%	99%
4	9	Roma	13.6	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	50%	50%	99.9%
4	4	Servette	5.3	(4-7)	3%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	1	Sheriff Tiraspol	2.4	(1-4)	97%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	12	Leverkusen	16.7	(16-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	100%
4	6	Karabakh Agdam	9.5	(9-10)	< 1%	39%	60%	< 1%	60%
4	6	Molde	7.8	(6-9)	< 1%	60%	40%	< 1%	40%
4	0	Haecken	1.3	(0-3)	99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
E	Liverpool	< 1%	< 1%	5%	95%	99%	99%	84%	66%	50%	29%
H	Leverkusen	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	100%	99%	66%	36%	19%	9%
D	Atalanta	< 1%	< 1%	14%	86%	100%	94%	57%	30%	15%	8%
B	Brighton	< 1%	8%	32%	60%	92%	82%	51%	27%	13%	7%
G	Roma	< 1%	< 1%	50%	50%	99.9%	80%	45%	24%	11%	5%
A	West Ham	< 1%	1%	25%	74%	99%	88%	54%	27%	13%	4%
C	Betis	< 1%	4%	19%	77%	96%	89%	47%	20%	9%	4%
D	Sporting	< 1%	12%	74%	14%	88%	55%	25%	13%	5%	3%
	Milan					35%	27%	16%	9%	6%	2%
	Dortmund					20%	16%	10%	6%	3%	2%
B	Marseille	< 1%	10%	51%	38%	90%	62%	26%	10%	4%	2%
	Newcastle					23%	18%	11%	7%	4%	2%
	Paris SG					22%	16%	9%	6%	4%	2%
G	Slavia Praha	< 1%	< 1%	50%	50%	99%	72%	28%	8%	2%	2%
A	Freiburg	< 1%	10%	64%	26%	90%	58%	26%	10%	4%	2%
F	Rennes	< 1%	2%	42%	56%	98%	78%	35%	13%	5%	2%
	Man United					35%	26%	15%	9%	5%	2%
F	Villarreal	2%	10%	45%	44%	89%	68%	33%	14%	5%	2%
	Atletico					13%	11%	6%	4%	3%	2%
	Lazio					34%	23%	12%	7%	3%	1%
	PSV					35%	23%	11%	6%	3%	1%
	Salzburg					81%	42%	16%	8%	3%	1%
	Feyenoord					50%	33%	16%	6%	2%	1%
	Benfica					19%	12%	6%	3%	2%	< 1%
	Napoli					6%	4%	3%	2%	1%	< 1%
	Porto					6%	4%	3%	2%	1%	< 1%
	Lens					39%	23%	9%	3%	1%	< 1%
C	Rangers	< 1%	9%	68%	23%	91%	48%	14%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Braga					68%	30%	9%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sevilla					24%	14%	6%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Galatasaray					33%	18%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
	Shakhtar					90%	31%	7%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Young Boys					62%	24%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
	FC Kobenhavn					32%	13%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Toulouse	1%	21%	74%	4%	78%	29%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Union Berlin					27%	12%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Karabakh Agdam	< 1%	39%	60%	< 1%	60%	18%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	St Gillis	28%	50%	21%	< 1%	22%	10%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Crvena Zvezda					38%	13%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Olympiakos	5%	84%	11%	< 1%	11%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Molde	< 1%	60%	40%	< 1%	40%	9%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Ajax	50%	41%	9%	< 1%	9%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	AEK	50%	40%	8%	2%	10%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Sparta Praha	24%	67%	8%	< 1%	9%	3%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Panathinaikos	24%	66%	11%	< 1%	11%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Sturm Graz	12%	76%	12%	< 1%	12%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Barcelona					2%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Celtic					2%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Aris Limassol	76%	20%	4%	< 1%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Maccabi Haifa	75%	23%	2%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Antwerp					2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Arsenal					1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	LASK	71%	28%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Servette	3%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Europa Conference League

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	8	Lille	13.2	(12-14)	< 1%	< 1%	9%	91%	99%
4	7	Slovan Bratislava	10.7	(10-13)	< 1%	4%	86%	9%	95%
4	4	Klaksvik	5.2	(4-7)	21%	76%	3%	< 1%	4%
4	3	Olimpija Ljubljana	4.3	(3-6)	78%	20%	1%	< 1%	1%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	10	Gent	13.6	(13-14)	< 1%	3%	26%	71%	97%
3	6	M Tel Aviv	11.8	(10-13)	< 1%	9%	64%	27%	91%
3	4	Zorya	7.4	(7-8)	2%	86%	10%	3%	12%
4	0	Breidablik	1.3	(0-3)	98%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	12	Viktoria Plzen	16.2	(15-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
4	4	FK Astana	5.9	(4-7)	21%	42%	37%	< 1%	37%
4	4	Ballkani	5.1	(4-7)	62%	29%	8%	< 1%	8%
4	3	Dinamo Zagreb	7	(6-9)	17%	28%	55%	< 1%	55%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	10	Brugge	13	(11-14)	< 1%	< 1%	15%	85%	100%
4	7	Bodoe Glimt	10	(9-11)	< 1%	13%	72%	15%	87%
4	4	Lugano	5.9	(4-7)	34%	54%	13%	< 1%	13%
4	1	Besiktas	4.1	(2-5)	66%	34%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	9	Legia	10.5	(9-12)	< 1%	32%	59%	9%	68%
4	9	Aston Villa	14.2	(13-15)	< 1%	< 1%	9%	91%	100%
4	3	Zrinjski Mostar	3.6	(3-4)	89%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	3	Alkmaar	7.2	(6-9)	11%	58%	32%	< 1%	32%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	8	Fiorentina	12.1	(11-14)	< 1%	9%	16%	75%	91%
4	6	Ferencvaros	8.4	(7-9)	< 1%	59%	31%	9%	41%
4	6	Genk	9.2	(9-10)	< 1%	32%	51%	16%	67%
4	0	Cukaricki	1.4	(0-3)	99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	10	PAOK	13	(13-14)	< 1%	< 1%	65%	35%	100%
4	9	Frankfurt	13.5	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	35%	65%	100%
4	2	Aberdeen	3.7	(2-5)	44%	56%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	1	HJK Helsinki	3.1	(2-4)	56%	44%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	9	Fenerbahce	13.2	(12-15)	< 1%	1%	15%	84%	99%
4	7	Nordsjaelland	9.5	(8-11)	< 1%	36%	50%	14%	64%
4	6	Razgrad	8.8	(7-10)	< 1%	62%	35%	2%	37%
4	1	Trnava	2.6	(1-4)	99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
E	Aston Villa	< 1%	< 1%	9%	91%	100%	99%	85%	69%	52%	32%
F	Fiorentina	< 1%	9%	16%	75%	91%	87%	65%	41%	24%	11%
H	Fenerbahce	< 1%	1%	15%	84%	99%	95%	69%	40%	22%	11%
A	Lille	< 1%	< 1%	9%	91%	99%	96%	69%	39%	20%	9%
G	Frankfurt	< 1%	< 1%	35%	65%	100%	90%	59%	35%	16%	8%
D	Brugge	< 1%	< 1%	15%	85%	100%	94%	56%	25%	12%	6%
B	Gent	< 1%	3%	26%	71%	97%	88%	50%	25%	10%	5%
F	Genk	< 1%	32%	51%	16%	67%	48%	22%	10%	4%	2%
	St Gillis					50%	35%	16%	8%	3%	2%
	Sturm Graz					76%	42%	18%	8%	3%	2%
	Olympiakos					84%	49%	20%	8%	3%	1%
	Sporting					12%	9%	5%	3%	2%	1%
D	Bodoe Glimt	< 1%	13%	72%	15%	87%	53%	22%	8%	2%	1%
	Brighton					8%	6%	4%	3%	2%	1%
C	Viktoria Plzen	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	39%	10%	2%	1%
	Sparta Praha					67%	39%	15%	6%	2%	1%
G	PAOK	< 1%	< 1%	65%	35%	100%	67%	25%	10%	3%	< 1%
B	M Tel Aviv	< 1%	9%	64%	27%	91%	59%	24%	8%	2%	< 1%
	Ajax					41%	27%	12%	5%	2%	< 1%
	Panathinaikos					66%	36%	12%	4%	2%	< 1%
	Freiburg					10%	7%	4%	3%	2%	< 1%
H	Nordsjaelland	< 1%	36%	50%	14%	64%	37%	13%	4%	1%	< 1%
E	Alkmaar	11%	58%	32%	< 1%	32%	19%	7%	2%	1%	< 1%
	Villarreal					10%	8%	4%	2%	1%	< 1%
	AEK					40%	23%	8%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Marseille					10%	8%	4%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
	Karabakh Agdam					39%	21%	9%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
	Molde					60%	27%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Legia	< 1%	32%	59%	9%	68%	29%	8%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
	Toulouse					21%	13%	6%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Dinamo Zagreb	17%	28%	55%	< 1%	55%	24%	6%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
	LASK					28%	13%	4%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
	Maccabi Haifa					23%	12%	4%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
	Servette					96%	35%	7%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Betis					4%	4%	2%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Ferencvaros	< 1%	59%	31%	9%	41%	19%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Slovan Bratislava	< 1%	4%	86%	9%	95%	30%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Razgrad	< 1%	62%	35%	2%	37%	14%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Aris Limassol					20%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Rangers					9%	6%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	FK Astana	21%	42%	37%	< 1%	37%	8%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Lugano	34%	54%	13%	< 1%	13%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Rakow					12%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Zorya	2%	86%	10%	3%	12%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sheriff Tiraspol					3%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Rennes					2%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Ballkani	62%	29%	8%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Backa Topola					5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Klaksvik	21%	76%	3%	< 1%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Olimpija Ljubljana	78%	20%	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	West Ham					1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Cukaricki	99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Liverpool					< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Slavia Praha					< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Roma					< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Haecken					< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%