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Postponed match in Group I today when Kosovo play Israel. With a win Israel have it in their own hands, whereas a lost points would help Switzerland and most of all Romania. A win for Israel would also help Norway as detailed below.
Group I
| Kosovo vs Israel (7.5%) | Home Win (36%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (39%) |
| Romania | 62% | 57% | 39% |
| Israel | 53% | 57% | 75% |
| Switzerland | 98.8% | 98.3% | 96.0% |
Group I
| Probabilities | Point | GD | ||||||||
| Country | At least Playoff | At least Second | Group Winner | Min | 25% | Average | 75% | Max | Average | |
| Switzerland | >99.99% | 95.8% | 82% | 15 | 21 | 21.7 | 24 | 24 | 16.6 | |
| Romania | 52% | 52% | 9% | 16 | 16 | 17.7 | 19 | 22 | 7.3 | |
| Israel | 100% | 53% | 9% | 11 | 16 | 17.5 | 19 | 23 | 1.8 | |
| Kosovo | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 7 | 10 | 10.6 | 12 | 16 | -1.6 | |
| Belarus | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 6 | 9 | 9.3 | 10 | 12 | -6 | |
| Andorra | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2 | 2 | 2.7 | 3 | 8 | -18.1 | |
Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)
In League B this means that Norway get a second chance in playoff if three out of Israel (47%), Serbia (99%), Ukraine (33%) and Albania (99%) finish top 2 in their groups.
| League A | Top 2 | Playoff | At least Playoff | Home Advantage | |
| B | Netherlands | 99.91% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% |
| D | Croatia | 53% | 47% | 100% | 47% |
| A | Spain | 100% | 100% | ||
| C | Italy | 67% | 33% | 100% | 33% |
| H | Denmark | 99.72% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% |
| J | Portugal | 100% | 100% | ||
| F | Belgium | 100% | 100% | ||
| G | Hungary | 99.0% | 1.0% | 100% | < 1% |
| I | Switzerland | 95.8% | 4.2% | >99.99% | 3.6% |
| Germany | |||||
| E | Poland | 3.9% | 96.0% | 99.99% | 78% |
| B | France | 100% | 100% | ||
| F | Austria | 100% | 100% | ||
| E | Czechia | 95.5% | 4.5% | >99.99% | 3.4% |
| C | England | 100% | 100% | ||
| D | Wales | 46% | 53% | 99.98% | 33% |
| League B | Top 2 | Playoff | At least Playoff | Home Advantage | |
| I | Israel | 53% | 47% | 100% | 47% |
| J | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| G | Serbia | 99.64% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% |
| A | Scotland | 100% | 100% | ||
| H | Finland | 100% | 100% | 52% | |
| C | Ukraine | 33% | 67% | 99.89% | |
| E | Albania | 99.99% | < 1% | >99.99% | |
| A | Norway | 68% | 68% | ||
| H | Slovenia | 91% | 1.5% | 93% | |
| B | Ireland | 16% | 16% | ||
| J | Iceland | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| G | Montenegro | 1.4% | 1.4% | ||
| I | Romania | 52% | 52% | ||
| F | Sweden | ||||
| D | Armenia | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| League C | Top 2 | Playoff | At least Playoff | Home Advantage | |
| A | Georgia | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| B | Greece | < 1% | 99.91% | 100% | 99.91% |
| D | Turkey | 100% | 100% | ||
| H | Kazakhstan | 9% | 91% | 100% | < 1% |
| J | Luxembourg | 3.0% | 97.0% | 100% | < 1% |
| F | Azerbaijan | 12% | 12% | < 1% | |
| I | Kosovo | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| G | Bulgaria | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| E | Faroe Islands | ||||
| C | North Macedonia | ||||
| J | Slovakia | 96.6% | 96.6% | ||
| H | Northern Ireland | ||||
| A | Cyprus | ||||
| I | Belarus | ||||
| G | Lithuania | ||||
| B | Gibraltar | ||||
| League D | Top 2 | Playoff | At least Playoff | Home Advantage | |
| F | Estonia | 97.8% | 97.8% | ||
| D | Latvia | 62% | 62% | ||
| E | Moldova | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| C | Malta | ||||
| I | Andorra | ||||
| H | San Marino | ||||
| J | Liechtenstein | ||||
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