PL: Man City 51% favourites

Both Liverpool and Arsenal are now winning more than 20% of the simulations, but Man City are still the favourites with 3 more points in average simulated points.

Hot Teams
Bournemouth: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Man United: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Everton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 more than expected
West Ham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Aston Villa: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Tottenham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 6.3 less than expected
Man City: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 less than expected
Burnley: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Forest: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
30	Man City	81.9	+55	< 1%	99.99%	99.94%	99.75%	98.9%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	99.73%
36	Arsenal	78.9	+37	< 1%	99.86%	99.51%	98.4%	95%	24%	< 1%	1.5%	98.2%
34	Liverpool	78.4	+41	< 1%	99.83%	99.44%	98.2%	95%	23%	< 1%	1.4%	98.4%
32	Aston Villa	69.6	+23	< 1%	94%	88%	76%	54%	1.7%	2.1%	21%	73%
26	Newcastle	65.4	+28	< 1%	84%	71%	51%	26%	< 1%	8%	31%	51%
27	Tottenham	63.4	+14	< 1%	72%	55%	34%	15%	< 1%	9%	36%	32%
27	Man United	61.4	+4	< 1%	58%	39%	22%	9%	< 1%	12%	32%	22%
22	Brighton	58.1	+8	< 1%	38%	22%	11%	3.8%	< 1%	10%	24%	17%
24	West Ham	56.0	+1	< 1%	24%	12%	5%	1.6%	< 1%	14%	16%	10%
19	Chelsea	53.2	+5	< 1%	13%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	12%	2.0%
19	Brentford	53.1	+4	< 1%	14%	7%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	15%	2.3%
18	Fulham	46.0	-11	1.3%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	3.5%	< 1%
18	Wolves	45.9	-12	1.1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	1.7%	< 1%
16	Crystal Palace	45.6	-12	1.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	2.2%	< 1%
13	Bournemouth	38.4	-28	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Forest	37.5	-23	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Everton	36.0	-12	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%
7	Burnley	30.1	-34	68%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Luton	29.1	-36	75%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Sheffield United	24.0	-54	94%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	81%	38%	7%		24%	7%
Arsenal	37%	4.6%	< 1%		1.7%	< 1%
Liverpool	72%	27%	4.1%	< 1%	1.0%
Aston Villa	36%	1.7%	< 1%		< 1%
Newcastle	28%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	4.5%	< 1%			< 1%
Man United	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	12%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	16%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brentford	6%	< 1%			< 1%
Fulham	8%	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Crystal Palace	1.4%
Bournemouth	< 1%
Forest	< 1%
Everton	8%	< 1%
Burnley	< 1%
Luton	< 1%
Sheffield United	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Aston Villa vs Arsenal (2.2%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Arsenal	18%	23%	32%
Aston Villa	2.9%	1.3%	< 1%
Man City	54%	52%	46%
Liverpool	24%	23%	21%

	Man City			Arsenal			Liverpool			Aston Villa
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
93	1.6%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	2.9%	1.3%	99.0%	1.4%	< 1%	97%	1.0%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
91	4.7%	1.8%	98%	2.2%	< 1%	96%	1.7%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	7%	2.5%	97%	3.3%	1.1%	93%	2.7%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	90%
89	11%	3.4%	95%	4.9%	1.6%	89%	4.0%	1.4%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	88%
88	15%	4.1%	92%	7%	2.1%	84%	6%	1.8%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	82%
87	20%	5%	88%	10%	2.7%	77%	8%	2.4%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	75%
86	26%	6%	83%	13%	3.4%	70%	11%	3.0%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	68%
85	32%	7%	77%	17%	4.1%	61%	15%	3.8%	61%	< 1%	< 1%	56%
84	39%	7%	69%	22%	4.8%	51%	20%	4.5%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	45%
83	47%	7%	61%	27%	5%	42%	25%	5%	42%	1.5%	< 1%	35%
82	54%	7%	52%	33%	6%	33%	30%	6%	33%	2.3%	< 1%	27%
81	61%	7%	42%	40%	6%	24%	37%	6%	25%	3.4%	1.1%	18%
80	68%	7%	33%	46%	7%	17%	43%	7%	18%	4.9%	1.5%	12%
79	74%	6%	25%	53%	7%	11%	50%	7%	12%	7%	2.0%	7%
78	80%	5%	18%	60%	7%	7%	57%	7%	8%	9%	2.5%	4%
77	84%	4.6%	12%	66%	6%	4.3%	63%	6%	4.4%	13%	3.2%	2.0%
76	88%	3.9%	7%	72%	6%	2.4%	69%	6%	2.4%	16%	3.8%	1.0%
75	91%	3.1%	4%	77%	5%	1.1%	75%	6%	1.3%	21%	4.5%	< 1%
74	94%	2.4%	2.3%	82%	4.7%	< 1%	80%	5%	< 1%	26%	5%	< 1%
73	95.7%	1.9%	1.2%	86%	4.0%	< 1%	84%	4.4%	< 1%	32%	6%	< 1%
72	97.0%	1.4%	< 1%	89%	3.4%	< 1%	88%	3.7%	< 1%	38%	6%	< 1%
71	98.0%	< 1%	< 1%	92%	2.7%	< 1%	91%	3.0%	< 1%	44%	6%	< 1%
70	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	2.2%	< 1%	93%	2.4%	< 1%	51%	7%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Newcastle (4.7%)	Home Win (45%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (31%)
Tottenham	41%	29%	21%
Newcastle	43%	51%	63%

	Liverpool			Arsenal			Aston Villa			Newcastle			Tottenham			Man United			Brighton			West Ham			Brentford			Chelsea
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
83	25%	5%	100%	27%	5%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
82	30%	6%	100%	33%	6%	100%	2.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
81	37%	6%	100%	40%	6%	100%	3.4%	1.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
80	43%	7%	100%	46%	7%	>99.99%	4.9%	1.5%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
79	50%	7%	>99.99%	53%	7%	>99.99%	7%	2.0%	99.99%	1.2%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
78	57%	7%	>99.99%	60%	7%	>99.99%	9%	2.5%	99.9%	1.9%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	63%	6%	99.99%	66%	6%	99.97%	13%	3.2%	99.9%	2.9%	1.0%	99.8%	1.4%	< 1%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	69%	6%	99.97%	72%	6%	99.96%	16%	3.8%	99.8%	4.3%	1.4%	99.6%	2.2%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	75%	6%	99.9%	77%	5%	99.9%	21%	4.5%	99.5%	6%	1.8%	99.3%	3.2%	1.0%	99%	1.5%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	80%	5%	99.8%	82%	4.7%	99.7%	26%	5%	99.1%	9%	2.4%	98.5%	4.6%	1.4%	98%	2.3%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	98%
73	84%	4.4%	99.6%	86%	4.0%	99.3%	32%	6%	98.4%	11%	3.0%	97.6%	6%	1.8%	96%	3.4%	1.1%	95%	1.0%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	98%
72	88%	3.7%	99.0%	89%	3.4%	98.8%	38%	6%	97.0%	15%	3.6%	96%	9%	2.4%	93%	4.8%	1.4%	92%	1.6%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	93%
71	91%	3.0%	98.0%	92%	2.7%	97.3%	44%	6%	95.2%	19%	4.3%	93%	12%	3.0%	90%	7%	1.9%	88%	2.3%	< 1%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	89%
70	93%	2.4%	96%	94%	2.2%	95%	51%	7%	92%	24%	5.0%	89%	15%	3.6%	84%	9%	2.4%	81%	3.3%	1.0%	83%	1.3%	< 1%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	84%
69	95.2%	1.9%	94%	96.0%	1.7%	91%	57%	7%	87%	30%	6%	84%	20%	4.3%	77%	12%	3.0%	72%	4.7%	1.4%	74%	1.9%	< 1%	72%	< 1%	< 1%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	73%
68	96.6%	1.4%	89%	97.2%	1.2%	86%	64%	6%	80%	36%	6%	77%	25%	4.9%	67%	16%	3.6%	62%	7%	1.8%	65%	2.9%	< 1%	62%	1.0%	< 1%	63%	< 1%	< 1%	65%
67	97.7%	1.1%	83%	98.1%	< 1%	77%	70%	6%	71%	43%	6%	68%	30%	6%	56%	20%	4.3%	49%	9%	2.3%	54%	4.2%	1.3%	51%	1.5%	< 1%	53%	1.3%	< 1%	51%
66	98.5%	< 1%	76%	98.8%	< 1%	68%	75%	6%	60%	49%	7%	58%	36%	6%	44%	25%	5.0%	38%	12%	2.9%	43%	6%	1.7%	38%	2.3%	< 1%	38%	2.0%	< 1%	39%
65	99.0%	< 1%	67%	99.21%	< 1%	55%	80%	4.9%	48%	56%	7%	46%	43%	6%	33%	31%	6%	27%	15%	3.5%	33%	8%	2.2%	28%	3.3%	1.0%	28%	2.9%	< 1%	27%
64	99.35%	< 1%	56%	99.51%	< 1%	42%	84%	4.3%	35%	62%	6%	36%	49%	7%	23%	37%	6%	18%	19%	4.1%	24%	11%	2.7%	20%	4.8%	1.4%	18%	4.2%	1.3%	17%
63	99.60%	< 1%	46%	99.70%	< 1%	31%	88%	3.7%	24%	68%	6%	26%	56%	7%	14%	43%	6%	12%	24%	4.7%	17%	14%	3.4%	13%	7%	1.8%	9%	6%	1.7%	10%
62	99.76%	< 1%	41%	99.82%	< 1%	22%	91%	3.0%	15%	74%	6%	18%	62%	6%	8%	50%	7%	7%	29%	5%	13%	18%	4.0%	9%	9%	2.3%	5%	8%	2.3%	5%
61	99.86%	< 1%	35%	99.90%	< 1%	16%	93%	2.4%	8%	79%	5%	12%	68%	6%	4.1%	56%	7%	4.3%	35%	6%	11%	23%	4.6%	7%	12%	2.9%	2.4%	11%	2.8%	2.1%
60	99.92%	< 1%	30%	99.94%	< 1%	12%	95.3%	1.9%	4%	84%	4.4%	9%	74%	6%	1.8%	62%	6%	2.9%	41%	6%	9%	28%	5%	6%	15%	3.5%	1.0%	15%	3.5%	< 1%
59	99.95%	< 1%	27%	99.97%	< 1%	9%	96.8%	1.4%	1%	87%	3.8%	7%	79%	5%	< 1%	69%	6%	2.4%	47%	6%	9%	34%	6%	6%	19%	4.1%	< 1%	19%	4.2%	< 1%
58	99.98%	< 1%	31%	99.98%	< 1%	10%	97.8%	1.0%	< 1%	91%	3.1%	6%	83%	4.5%	< 1%	74%	6%	2.3%	54%	6%	8%	40%	6%	6%	24%	4.7%	< 1%	24%	4.8%	< 1%
57	99.99%	< 1%	30%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	98.6%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	2.5%	6%	87%	3.8%	< 1%	79%	5%	2.2%	60%	6%	8%	46%	7%	6%	29%	5%	< 1%	29%	5%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Tottenham vs Newcastle (3.2%)	Home Win (45%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (31%)
Tottenham	76%	66%	59%
Newcastle	77%	82%	89%
Brighton vs Brentford (2.1%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Brighton	47%	38%	33%
Brentford	14%	17%	23%

	Aston Villa			Newcastle			Tottenham			Man United			Brighton			West Ham			Brentford			Chelsea			Fulham			Crystal Palace			Wolves
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
77	13%	3.2%	100%	2.9%	1.0%	100%	1.4%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	16%	3.8%	>99.99%	4.3%	1.4%	100%	2.2%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	21%	4.5%	100%	6%	1.8%	100%	3.2%	1.0%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	26%	5%	>99.99%	9%	2.4%	>99.99%	4.6%	1.4%	99.9%	2.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	32%	6%	>99.99%	11%	3.0%	99.98%	6%	1.8%	99.9%	3.4%	1.1%	99.9%	1.0%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	38%	6%	99.98%	15%	3.6%	99.97%	9%	2.4%	99.9%	4.8%	1.4%	99.9%	1.6%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	44%	6%	99.95%	19%	4.3%	99.9%	12%	3.0%	99.7%	7%	1.9%	99.6%	2.3%	< 1%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	51%	7%	99.9%	24%	5.0%	99.8%	15%	3.6%	99.5%	9%	2.4%	99.4%	3.3%	1.0%	99.4%	1.3%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	57%	7%	99.7%	30%	6%	99.5%	20%	4.3%	99.1%	12%	3.0%	98.5%	4.7%	1.4%	98.6%	1.9%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	64%	6%	99.4%	36%	6%	99.1%	25%	4.9%	98.3%	16%	3.6%	97.3%	7%	1.8%	98%	2.9%	< 1%	97%	1.0%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	70%	6%	98.8%	43%	6%	98.2%	30%	6%	97.1%	20%	4.3%	95%	9%	2.3%	96%	4.2%	1.3%	95%	1.5%	< 1%	97%	1.3%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	95%
66	75%	6%	97.7%	49%	7%	96.9%	36%	6%	95%	25%	5.0%	93%	12%	2.9%	93%	6%	1.7%	91%	2.3%	< 1%	93%	2.0%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	94%
65	80%	4.9%	95.7%	56%	7%	95%	43%	6%	92%	31%	6%	88%	15%	3.5%	89%	8%	2.2%	86%	3.3%	1.0%	88%	2.9%	< 1%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	85%
64	84%	4.3%	93%	62%	6%	91%	49%	7%	87%	37%	6%	82%	19%	4.1%	83%	11%	2.7%	79%	4.8%	1.4%	81%	4.2%	1.3%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	79%
63	88%	3.7%	89%	68%	6%	86%	56%	7%	80%	43%	6%	74%	24%	4.7%	76%	14%	3.4%	70%	7%	1.8%	72%	6%	1.7%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	68%	< 1%	< 1%	67%
62	91%	3.0%	83%	74%	6%	79%	62%	6%	72%	50%	7%	63%	29%	5%	66%	18%	4.0%	58%	9%	2.3%	62%	8%	2.3%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	53%
61	93%	2.4%	77%	79%	5%	70%	68%	6%	61%	56%	7%	52%	35%	6%	56%	23%	4.6%	48%	12%	2.9%	50%	11%	2.8%	47%	< 1%	< 1%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	45%
60	95.3%	1.9%	68%	84%	4.4%	60%	74%	6%	50%	62%	6%	41%	41%	6%	45%	28%	5%	37%	15%	3.5%	38%	15%	3.5%	36%	1.4%	< 1%	33%	1.2%	< 1%	31%	1.1%	< 1%	32%
59	96.8%	1.4%	59%	87%	3.8%	49%	79%	5%	38%	69%	6%	30%	47%	6%	35%	34%	6%	27%	19%	4.1%	28%	19%	4.2%	25%	2.1%	< 1%	23%	1.7%	< 1%	22%	1.7%	< 1%	21%
58	97.8%	1.0%	51%	91%	3.1%	39%	83%	4.5%	28%	74%	6%	21%	54%	6%	27%	40%	6%	20%	24%	4.7%	19%	24%	4.8%	17%	3.1%	< 1%	14%	2.6%	< 1%	13%	2.5%	< 1%	12%
57	98.6%	< 1%	45%	93%	2.5%	29%	87%	3.8%	19%	79%	5%	14%	60%	6%	21%	46%	7%	14%	29%	5%	13%	29%	5%	11%	4.4%	1.3%	8%	3.7%	1.1%	7%	3.7%	1.1%	7%
56	99.06%	< 1%	40%	95.1%	2.0%	23%	90%	3.2%	12%	84%	4.5%	9%	66%	6%	17%	53%	7%	11%	35%	6%	10%	35%	6%	7%	6%	1.7%	5%	5%	1.5%	4%	5%	1.6%	4%
55	99.41%	< 1%	37%	96.6%	1.5%	18%	93%	2.6%	9%	87%	3.8%	6%	72%	6%	15%	59%	7%	9%	41%	6%	7%	41%	6%	4.9%	8%	2.2%	4%	7%	1.9%	2%	7%	2.1%	2%
54	99.64%	< 1%	36%	97.7%	1.1%	15%	95%	2.0%	6%	91%	3.1%	4%	77%	5%	13%	66%	6%	8%	47%	6%	7%	48%	7%	3.8%	11%	2.8%	3%	10%	2.5%	1.8%	10%	2.6%	1.4%
53	99.79%	< 1%	36%	98.5%	< 1%	13%	96.4%	1.5%	5%	93%	2.5%	4%	82%	4.6%	13%	71%	6%	7%	54%	6%	6%	54%	7%	3.2%	14%	3.3%	2.7%	13%	3.1%	1.5%	13%	3.2%	1.1%
52	99.88%	< 1%	36%	99.02%	< 1%	12%	97.6%	1.2%	5%	95.1%	2.0%	3%	85%	4.0%	12%	77%	5%	7%	60%	6%	6%	61%	7%	3.1%	18%	3.9%	2.5%	16%	3.7%	1.4%	17%	3.9%	< 1%
51	99.94%	< 1%	36%	99.38%	< 1%	13%	98.4%	< 1%	4%	96.6%	1.5%	3%	89%	3.4%	12%	82%	4.8%	7%	66%	6%	6%	67%	6%	2.9%	23%	4.6%	2.6%	21%	4.3%	1.3%	22%	4.6%	< 1%
50	99.97%	< 1%	30%	99.63%	< 1%	12%	99.0%	< 1%	4%	97.7%	1.1%	3%	92%	2.8%	12%	86%	4.1%	7%	72%	6%	6%	73%	6%	3.0%	28%	5%	2.5%	26%	4.9%	1.3%	27%	5%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Brighton vs Brentford (2.6%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Brighton	58%	48%	43%
Brentford	19%	24%	32%
Tottenham vs Newcastle (2.4%)	Home Win (45%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (31%)
Tottenham	84%	76%	71%
Newcastle	87%	90%	94%

	Aston Villa			Newcastle			Tottenham			Man United			Brighton			West Ham			Chelsea			Brentford			Fulham			Everton			Crystal Palace			Wolves
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
75	21%	4.5%	100%	6%	1.8%	100%	3.2%	1.0%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	26%	5%	100%	9%	2.4%	>99.99%	4.6%	1.4%	99.9%	2.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	32%	6%	>99.99%	11%	3.0%	99.99%	6%	1.8%	>99.99%	3.4%	1.1%	99.9%	1.0%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	38%	6%	>99.99%	15%	3.6%	>99.99%	9%	2.4%	99.9%	4.8%	1.4%	99.9%	1.6%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	44%	6%	99.98%	19%	4.3%	99.9%	12%	3.0%	99.9%	7%	1.9%	99.8%	2.3%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	51%	7%	99.97%	24%	5.0%	99.9%	15%	3.6%	99.8%	9%	2.4%	99.8%	3.3%	1.0%	99.8%	1.3%	< 1%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	57%	7%	99.9%	30%	6%	99.8%	20%	4.3%	99.7%	12%	3.0%	99.4%	4.7%	1.4%	99.4%	1.9%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	64%	6%	99.8%	36%	6%	99.7%	25%	4.9%	99.3%	16%	3.6%	98.9%	7%	1.8%	99.1%	2.9%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	1.0%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	70%	6%	99.5%	43%	6%	99.4%	30%	6%	98.8%	20%	4.3%	98.1%	9%	2.3%	98.2%	4.2%	1.3%	98%	1.3%	< 1%	98%	1.5%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	97%
66	75%	6%	99.1%	49%	7%	98.9%	36%	6%	98.0%	25%	5.0%	97.0%	12%	2.9%	97%	6%	1.7%	96%	2.0%	< 1%	98%	2.3%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%
65	80%	4.9%	98.2%	56%	7%	98.0%	43%	6%	96.4%	31%	6%	95%	15%	3.5%	95%	8%	2.2%	94%	2.9%	< 1%	96%	3.3%	1.0%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	94%
64	84%	4.3%	97.0%	62%	6%	96.5%	49%	7%	94%	37%	6%	92%	19%	4.1%	92%	11%	2.7%	91%	4.2%	1.3%	92%	4.8%	1.4%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	90%
63	88%	3.7%	95%	68%	6%	94%	56%	7%	91%	43%	6%	87%	24%	4.7%	88%	14%	3.4%	86%	6%	1.7%	89%	7%	1.8%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	82%
62	91%	3.0%	92%	74%	6%	91%	62%	6%	86%	50%	7%	81%	29%	5%	82%	18%	4.0%	80%	8%	2.3%	83%	9%	2.3%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	75%
61	93%	2.4%	88%	79%	5%	86%	68%	6%	80%	56%	7%	74%	35%	6%	75%	23%	4.6%	72%	11%	2.8%	76%	12%	2.9%	72%	< 1%	< 1%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	66%	< 1%	< 1%	68%
60	95.3%	1.9%	81%	84%	4.4%	81%	74%	6%	71%	62%	6%	65%	41%	6%	67%	28%	5%	63%	15%	3.5%	67%	15%	3.5%	61%	1.4%	< 1%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.2%	< 1%	54%	1.1%	< 1%	56%
59	96.8%	1.4%	74%	87%	3.8%	74%	79%	5%	62%	69%	6%	55%	47%	6%	58%	34%	6%	53%	19%	4.2%	58%	19%	4.1%	50%	2.1%	< 1%	49%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.7%	< 1%	44%	1.7%	< 1%	43%
58	97.8%	1.0%	67%	91%	3.1%	66%	83%	4.5%	51%	74%	6%	44%	54%	6%	48%	40%	6%	44%	24%	4.8%	49%	24%	4.7%	40%	3.1%	< 1%	37%	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.6%	< 1%	32%	2.5%	< 1%	31%
57	98.6%	< 1%	59%	93%	2.5%	56%	87%	3.8%	40%	79%	5%	33%	60%	6%	39%	46%	7%	35%	29%	5%	40%	29%	5%	30%	4.4%	1.3%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	36%	3.7%	1.1%	21%	3.7%	1.1%	22%
56	99.06%	< 1%	51%	95.1%	2.0%	49%	90%	3.2%	30%	84%	4.5%	24%	66%	6%	31%	53%	7%	28%	35%	6%	32%	35%	6%	22%	6%	1.7%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	29%	5%	1.5%	14%	5%	1.6%	14%
55	99.41%	< 1%	45%	96.6%	1.5%	42%	93%	2.6%	22%	87%	3.8%	16%	72%	6%	24%	59%	7%	22%	41%	6%	26%	41%	6%	16%	8%	2.2%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	7%	1.9%	8%	7%	2.1%	8%
54	99.64%	< 1%	40%	97.7%	1.1%	37%	95%	2.0%	15%	91%	3.1%	11%	77%	5%	19%	66%	6%	18%	48%	7%	22%	47%	6%	12%	11%	2.8%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	10%	2.5%	5%	10%	2.6%	5%
53	99.79%	< 1%	39%	98.5%	< 1%	32%	96.4%	1.5%	10%	93%	2.5%	7%	82%	4.6%	16%	71%	6%	16%	54%	7%	19%	54%	6%	9%	14%	3.3%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	13%	3.1%	3.0%	13%	3.2%	2.9%
52	99.88%	< 1%	37%	99.02%	< 1%	30%	97.6%	1.2%	7%	95.1%	2.0%	5%	85%	4.0%	14%	77%	5%	15%	61%	7%	18%	60%	6%	7%	18%	3.9%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	16%	3.7%	2.0%	17%	3.9%	1.6%
51	99.94%	< 1%	36%	99.38%	< 1%	29%	98.4%	< 1%	5%	96.6%	1.5%	4%	89%	3.4%	13%	82%	4.8%	14%	67%	6%	17%	66%	6%	6%	23%	4.6%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	21%	4.3%	1.6%	22%	4.6%	1.1%
50	99.97%	< 1%	30%	99.63%	< 1%	29%	99.0%	< 1%	4%	97.7%	1.1%	3%	92%	2.8%	12%	86%	4.1%	14%	73%	6%	16%	72%	6%	6%	28%	5%	8%	1.2%	< 1%	8%	26%	4.9%	1.4%	27%	5%	< 1%
49	99.98%	< 1%	42%	99.78%	< 1%	28%	99.36%	< 1%	5%	98.5%	< 1%	4%	94%	2.2%	12%	89%	3.4%	13%	78%	5%	17%	77%	5%	6%	34%	6%	8%	1.8%	< 1%	8%	31%	6%	1.5%	33%	6%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	100%	89%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	69%
League cup winners	100%	65%	56%
Sixth team	99.0%	97.1%	3.3%
Seventh team	89%	71%	3.2%
Eighth team	57%	12%	3.1%

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 32 - 36

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brighton	51%	23%	26%	Brentford
Crystal Palace	57%	22%	21%	Bournemouth
Crystal Palace	26%	23%	51%	Liverpool
Man United	66%	19%	15%	Bournemouth
Wolves	54%	22%	24%	Forest
Sheffield United	26%	23%	51%	Brentford
Brighton	67%	19%	15%	Burnley
Aston Villa	38%	24%	37%	Arsenal
Everton	39%	24%	37%	Chelsea
Luton	9%	15%	76%	Man City
Fulham	42%	24%	33%	West Ham
Tottenham	45%	24%	31%	Newcastle