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Everton has the strong form in the league, having taken 6 points more than expected in the last five matches. On the other end of the spectrum we have Man City taking only 6 points, 4.5 less than expected. Yet Man City are favourites and win 54% of the simulations.
At the bottom we have added the most likely combinations of teams qualifying to CL and likewise which combinations are likely being relegated. In 50% of the simulations, the relegated teams are Burnley, Luton, and Sheffield United.
Hot Teams
Everton: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 6.0 more than expected
Bournemouth: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 5.7 more than expected
Aston Villa: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 5.6 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Fulham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Cold Teams
Man City: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Forest: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected
Brighton: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 33 | Man City | 82.5 | +54 | < 1% | >99.99% | 99.97% | 99.84% | 99.18% | 54% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.82% |
| 37 | Liverpool | 79.6 | +42 | < 1% | 99.95% | 99.80% | 99.13% | 96.6% | 28% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.13% |
| 36 | Arsenal | 77.5 | +36 | < 1% | 99.85% | 99.44% | 97.9% | 93% | 16% | < 1% | 2.1% | 97.6% |
| 35 | Aston Villa | 71.2 | +24 | < 1% | 97.8% | 94% | 85% | 66% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 15% | 83% |
| 30 | Tottenham | 64.8 | +17 | < 1% | 84% | 70% | 46% | 20% | < 1% | 7% | 38% | 43% |
| 26 | Newcastle | 64.2 | +25 | < 1% | 84% | 68% | 44% | 18% | < 1% | 8% | 37% | 44% |
| 27 | Man United | 59.3 | -0 | < 1% | 50% | 29% | 13% | 4.1% | < 1% | 13% | 31% | 14% |
| 23 | Brighton | 56.9 | +7 | < 1% | 36% | 19% | 8% | 2.3% | < 1% | 11% | 25% | 15% |
| 24 | West Ham | 54.7 | -4 | < 1% | 21% | 10% | 3.5% | < 1% | < 1% | 14% | 16% | 9% |
| 19 | Chelsea | 51.8 | +3 | < 1% | 11% | 4.4% | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | 19% | 11% | 1.2% |
| 19 | Brentford | 51.4 | +3 | < 1% | 11% | 4.4% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% | 6% | 13% | 1.3% |
| 21 | Fulham | 47.5 | -6 | < 1% | 3.0% | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 8% | 4.8% | < 1% |
| 19 | Wolves | 45.1 | -13 | 1.8% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | < 1% |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 44.6 | -12 | 2.5% | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.1% | 2.2% | < 1% |
| 16 | Bournemouth | 40.7 | -23 | 9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 14 | Forest | 37.6 | -23 | 21% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 13 | Everton | 37.6 | -11 | 19% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 8% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 8 | Burnley | 30.5 | -32 | 72% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 9 | Luton | 28.7 | -35 | 82% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 26.0 | -52 | 93% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Titles
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 82% | 39% | 7% | 26% | 7% | ||
| Liverpool | 74% | 29% | 4.8% | < 1% | 1.3% | ||
| Arsenal | 30% | 3.3% | < 1% | 1.1% | < 1% | ||
| Aston Villa | 36% | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Tottenham | 4.6% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| Newcastle | 28% | 2.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Man United | 3.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| Brighton | 12% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| West Ham | 13% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| Chelsea | 16% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Brentford | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| Fulham | 8% | < 1% | |||||
| Wolves | < 1% | ||||||
| Crystal Palace | 1.4% | ||||||
| Bournemouth | < 1% | ||||||
| Forest | < 1% | ||||||
| Everton | 8% | < 1% | |||||
| Burnley | < 1% | ||||||
| Luton | < 1% | ||||||
| Sheffield United | < 1% |
Coming Matches
| Home | Draw | Away | ||
| Brighton | 51% | 23% | 26% | Brentford |
| Crystal Palace | 57% | 22% | 21% | Bournemouth |
| Forest | 31% | 24% | 45% | Tottenham |
| Chelsea | 72% | 17% | 12% | Sheffield United |
| Newcastle | 66% | 19% | 15% | Fulham |
| Man City | 81% | 12% | 7% | Crystal Palace |
| Bournemouth | 57% | 22% | 22% | Luton |
| Burnley | 43% | 24% | 32% | Everton |
| Arsenal | 63% | 20% | 17% | Brighton |
| West Ham | 57% | 22% | 22% | Wolves |
| Brentford | 43% | 24% | 33% | Aston Villa |
| Liverpool | 64% | 20% | 17% | Man United |
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 23% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 22% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 6% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City |
| 6% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 5% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham |
| 4.2% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City |
| 2.8% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 2.6% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 1.9% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham |
| 1.8% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, West Ham |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 50% | Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 10% | Forest, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 9% | Everton, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 6% | Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 5% | Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United |
| 4.1% | Bournemouth, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 2.9% | Bournemouth, Burnley, Sheffield United |
| 2.5% | Burnley, Forest, Luton |
| 2.2% | Burnley, Everton, Luton |
| 1.1% | Crystal Palace, Luton, Sheffield United |
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