CL: Fourteen of 16 teams determine for CL knockout stage

Fourteen of 16 teams nailed for the knockout stage. Tonight Group F is the most open one with Newcastle hosting Milan in a crucial match.

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
6	16	Bayern	16	(16-16)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
6	8	FC Kobenhavn	8	(8-8)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
6	5	Galatasaray	5	(5-5)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	4	Man United	4	(4-4)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
6	13	Arsenal	13	(13-13)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
6	9	PSV	9	(9-9)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
6	8	Lens	8	(8-8)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	2	Sevilla	2	(2-2)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
6	18	Real Madrid	18	(18-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
6	10	Napoli	10	(10-10)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
6	4	Braga	4	(4-4)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	2	Union Berlin	2	(2-2)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
6	12	Sociedad	12	(12-12)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
6	12	Inter	12	(12-12)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
6	4	Benfica	4	(4-4)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	4	Salzburg	4	(4-4)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	11	Atletico	13.1	(12-14)	< 1%	< 1%	17%	83%	100%
5	10	Lazio	10.7	(10-11)	< 1%	< 1%	83%	17%	100%
5	6	Feyenoord	7.5	(6-9)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Celtic	2.3	(1-4)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	10	Dortmund	11.7	(10-13)	< 1%	< 1%	27%	73%	100%
5	7	Paris SG	8.1	(7-10)	< 1%	52%	21%	27%	48%
5	5	Newcastle	6.9	(6-8)	22%	37%	41%	< 1%	41%
5	5	Milan	5.9	(5-6)	78%	11%	11%	< 1%	11%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	15	Man City	17.5	(18-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	9	RB Leipzig	11.3	(10-12)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
5	4	Young Boys	4.5	(4-5)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Crvena Zvezda	1.3	(1-1)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	12	Barcelona	14	(13-15)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%	100%
5	9	Porto	11.3	(10-12)	< 1%	13%	87%	< 1%	87%
5	9	Shakhtar	9.6	(9-10)	< 1%	87%	13%	< 1%	13%
5	0	Antwerp	0.8	(0-1)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	85%	64%	48%	27%
A	Bayern	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	73%	46%	27%	14%
C	Real Madrid	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	73%	44%	25%	12%
B	Arsenal	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	71%	41%	21%	11%
H	Barcelona	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%	100%	62%	30%	13%	6%
D	Inter	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	46%	25%	12%	6%
E	Atletico	< 1%	< 1%	17%	83%	100%	57%	26%	11%	5%
F	Dortmund	< 1%	< 1%	27%	73%	100%	56%	24%	9%	4%
D	Sociedad	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	54%	19%	6%	3%
G	RB Leipzig	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	40%	16%	6%	3%
C	Napoli	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	35%	14%	5%	2%
F	Paris SG	< 1%	52%	21%	27%	48%	24%	11%	4%	2.0%
B	PSV	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	32%	11%	4%	1.8%
F	Newcastle	22%	37%	41%	< 1%	41%	18%	8%	3%	1.5%
H	Porto	< 1%	13%	87%	< 1%	87%	26%	9%	3%	1.3%
E	Lazio	< 1%	< 1%	83%	17%	100%	28%	8%	1.9%	< 1%
A	FC Kobenhavn	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	15%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Milan	78%	11%	11%	< 1%	11%	3%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Shakhtar	< 1%	87%	13%	< 1%	13%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	85%	20.4	14.38	26
GER	53%	18.68	13.93	24.79
ITA	33%	17.97	13.71	25.57
FRA	13%	16.55	11.42	23.92
ESP	13%	17	12.69	22.44
BEL	1.6%	14.68	10.6	22
CZE	< 1%	13.76	9.5	21.25
NED	< 1%	11.5	8.2	21.6
TUR	< 1%	12.02	9	19
GRE	< 1%	10.33	7.2	17.4