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Below are the simulated probabilities that a player reach each round
in AO24. Comparing the simulations and a random draw, we notice that
Dimitrov has one of the toughest draw with both Kokkinakis and
Fucsovics in his part of the tree giving him 20.5 percentage points
lower than the random draw. Tiafoe also has a tough draw with 18.6
points lower pprobability reaching third round with a matchup against
Coric in the first round. Monfils and Murray have relatively easy draw
in the early rounds with Etcheverry (30) as the seeded player in their
branch of the tree, but a nightmare draw after that with Djokovic
waiting in the 4th round. Tiafoe has the opposite pattern, tough early
rounds and a relatively easy draw in the 3rd round with Khachanov (15)
projected there.
With respect to reaching the quarterfinals, De Minaur has the most
advantageous draw with +15.2 percentage points, much thanks to
avoiding the worst favourites and having a projected 4th round against
Rublev. Similarly Fritz has +13.6 percentage points in the
quarterfinals with a projected 4th round against Tsitsipas.
In terms of the chance of winning the tournament, De Minaur has the
most advantageous draw with 0.4 more percentage points in the draw
than in the average simulated draw. Also, Djokovic has a good draw
with +0.4 thanks to a projected relatively easy 4th round and avoiding
Medvedev in the semis. Alcaraz has also plus percentage points (+0.3)
much thanks to the quarterfinals that look easier than the average
draw. On the other side of the spectrum, Tsitsipas has the toughtest
draw with 0.9 lower percentage points lower than in the average draw,
again much due to a tough start of the tournament.
| Name | R3 | R4 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ |
| N Djokovic | 96.4% (+1.1) | 88% (-1.6) | 84% (+2.7) | 69% (-0.2) | 54% (+0.7) | 35% (+0.4) |
| C Alcaraz | 90% (-4.2) | 85% (-3.2) | 76% (-2.8) | 67% (+0.7) | 49% (+0.3) | 29% (+0.3) |
| D Medvedev | 88% (-4.2) | 75% (-7.2) | 64% (-4.1) | 49% (-3.2) | 25% (-0.1) | 12% (-0.5) |
| J Sinner | 86% (-4.2) | 79% (+0.4) | 66% (+2.2) | 47% (+0.5) | 20% (-0.9) | 10% |
| T Fritz | 88% (+6.1) | 73% (+6.7) | 45% (+13.8) | 13% (-1.5) | 6% (+0.6) | 2.1% (+0.3) |
| H Rune | 71% (-11.7) | 56% (-10.4) | 37% (-9.3) | 17% (-0.5) | 6% (-0.5) | 2.0% (-0.2) |
| A Rublev | 82% (+0.7) | 67% (+3) | 42% (-1.7) | 20% (+3.9) | 6% (-0.1) | 1.9% (+0.1) |
| S Tsitsipas | 66% (-17.6) | 54% (-14.3) | 33% (-16.1) | 10% (-9.4) | 4.9% (-2.9) | 1.8% (-0.9) |
| A De Minaur | 85% (+5.7) | 72% (+11.7) | 41% (+15.2) | 18% (+7.1) | 4.8% (+1.1) | 1.4% (+0.4) |
| A Zverev | 67% (-10.9) | 51% (-8.1) | 34% (-4.1) | 10% (-2.5) | 3.9% (-0.1) | 1.0% (-0.1) |
| H Hurkacz | 70% (-8.2) | 54% (-5) | 31% (+5.6) | 12% (+2.1) | 3.8% (+0.6) | 1.0% (+0.1) |
| T Paul | 64% (-12.6) | 48% (-8.6) | 12% (-10.8) | 7% (-1.6) | 2.9% | < 1% |
| F Tiafoe | 53% (-18.6) | 40% (+6.3) | 13% (-0.9) | 6% (+1.2) | 1.3% | < 1% |
| G Dimitrov | 51% (-20.5) | 33% (-15.9) | 10% (-7.8) | 4.5% (-1.2) | 1.1% (-0.4) | < 1% (-0.1) |
| C Norrie | 71% (+2.6) | 41% (+12.5) | 21% (+9.5) | 4.3% (+1) | 1.3% (+0.5) | < 1% (+0.1) |
| C Ruud | 63% (-4.9) | 36% (-8.2) | 19% (+3.9) | 3.9% (-0.5) | 1.2% (+0.1) | < 1% |
| F Auger-Aliassime | 65% (-5.9) | 16% (-14.4) | 9% (-3.7) | 4.2% (+0.1) | 1.0% | < 1% |
| A Davidovich Fokina | 59% (-7.5) | 32% (+5.9) | 8% (-1.9) | 3.4% (+0.4) | < 1% (+0.1) | < 1% |
| G Monfils | 48% (+6.7) | 6% (-15.3) | 3.8% (-4.5) | 1.4% (-1) | < 1% (-0.1) | < 1% |
| J Lehecka | 66% (+4.6) | 27% (+5.3) | 13% (+5.5) | 2.2% (+0.4) | < 1% (+0.2) | < 1% |
| T Griekspoor | 46% (-17.5) | 18% (-5.8) | 8% (-0.7) | 2.1% (-0.2) | < 1% | < 1% |
| B Coric | 33% (-3.9) | 22% (+5.4) | 6% (+0.1) | 2.2% (+0.6) | < 1% | < 1% |
| L Musetti | 61% (-1.2) | 23% (-0.6) | 8% (+0.2) | 1.3% (-0.8) | < 1% (-0.1) | < 1% |
| U Humbert | 76% (+17.8) | 27% (+7.3) | 10% (+3.7) | 2.2% (+0.9) | < 1% (+0.1) | < 1% |
| A Murray | 43% (+3.9) | 4.6% (-13.6) | 2.9% (-3.8) | < 1% (-0.8) | < 1% (-0.1) | < 1% |
| D Shapovalov | 28% (-6) | 17% (+2.5) | 6% (+1.6) | 1.4% (+0.4) | < 1% (+0.1) | < 1% |
| K Khachanov | 59% (+1.2) | 25% (-6.9) | 6% (-2) | 1.8% (+0.1) | < 1% (-0.1) | < 1% |
| J-L Struff | 52% (-6.9) | 21% (+1.8) | 2.9% (-3) | 1.2% (-0.2) | < 1% | < 1% |
| S Wawrinka | 43% (+9.7) | 26% (+11.8) | 2.9% (-1.6) | < 1% (-0.2) | < 1% | < 1% |
| M Mcdonald | 49% (+16.6) | 6% (-7.5) | 2.6% (-1.7) | 1.0% (+0.1) | < 1% (+0.1) | < 1% |
| R Bautista Agut | 46% (+12.8) | 27% (+12.6) | 2.9% (-1.5) | < 1% (-0.1) | < 1% | < 1% |
| S Korda | 58% (+4.2) | 17% (-0.1) | 6% (+1.2) | 1.3% (+0.4) | < 1% | < 1% |
| Last 32 | Last 16 | Quarter-finals | Semi-finals | Final | Champions | |||||
N Djokovic (96%) | ||||||||||
N Djokovic (88%) | ||||||||||
G Monfils (48%) A Murray (43%) | ||||||||||
N Djokovic (84%) | ||||||||||
S Wawrinka (43%) A Mannarino (31%) A Shevchenko (17%) | ||||||||||
R Bautista Agut (27%) S Wawrinka (26%) A Mannarino (16%) C Garin (14%) | ||||||||||
R Bautista Agut (46%) C Garin (29%) B Shelton (14%) | ||||||||||
N Djokovic (69%) T Fritz (13%) | ||||||||||
T Fritz (88%) | ||||||||||
T Fritz (73%) F Cerundolo (16%) | ||||||||||
F Cerundolo (58%) M Cilic (35%) | ||||||||||
T Fritz (45%) S Tsitsipas (33%) L Musetti (8%) | ||||||||||
L Musetti (61%) L Van Assche (17%) B Bonzi (16%) | ||||||||||
S Tsitsipas (54%) L Musetti (23%) J Thompson (7%) | ||||||||||
S Tsitsipas (66%) J Thompson (14%) | ||||||||||
N Djokovic (54%) J Sinner (20%) T Fritz (6%) | ||||||||||
J Sinner (86%) | ||||||||||
J Sinner (79%) JJ Wolf (8%) | ||||||||||
JJ Wolf (50%) J Kubler (27%) DE Galan (13%) | ||||||||||
J Sinner (66%) F Tiafoe (13%) | ||||||||||
F Tiafoe (53%) B Coric (33%) | ||||||||||
F Tiafoe (40%) K Khachanov (25%) B Coric (22%) A Tabilo (5%) | ||||||||||
K Khachanov (59%) A Tabilo (23%) D Altmaier (13%) | ||||||||||
J Sinner (47%) A Rublev (20%) A De Minaur (18%) | ||||||||||
A De Minaur (85%) | ||||||||||
A De Minaur (72%) N Jarry (11%) | ||||||||||
N Jarry (46%) A Rinderknech (39%) P Kotov (11%) | ||||||||||
A Rublev (42%) A De Minaur (41%) S Korda (6%) | ||||||||||
S Korda (58%) Q Halys (36%) | ||||||||||
A Rublev (67%) S Korda (17%) | ||||||||||
A Rublev (82%) C Eubanks (11%) | ||||||||||
N Djokovic (35%) C Alcaraz (29%) D Medvedev (12%) J Sinner (10%) | ||||||||||
H Rune (71%) L Djere (13%) | ||||||||||
H Rune (56%) T Griekspoor (18%) A Fils (10%) | ||||||||||
T Griekspoor (46%) A Fils (33%) R Safiullin (15%) | ||||||||||
H Rune (37%) H Hurkacz (31%) U Humbert (10%) | ||||||||||
U Humbert (76%) Z Zhang (14%) | ||||||||||
H Hurkacz (54%) U Humbert (27%) D Shapovalov (17%) | ||||||||||
H Hurkacz (70%) D Shapovalov (28%) | ||||||||||
D Medvedev (49%) H Rune (17%) H Hurkacz (12%) | ||||||||||
G Dimitrov (51%) T Kokkinakis (30%) M Fucsovics (14%) | ||||||||||
G Dimitrov (33%) A Davidovich Fokina (32%) T Kokkinakis (15%) N Borges (7%) | ||||||||||
A Davidovich Fokina (59%) N Borges (23%) C Lestienne (12%) | ||||||||||
D Medvedev (64%) G Dimitrov (10%) | ||||||||||
F Auger-Aliassime (65%) D Thiem (21%) | ||||||||||
D Medvedev (75%) F Auger-Aliassime (16%) | ||||||||||
D Medvedev (88%) | ||||||||||
C Alcaraz (49%) D Medvedev (25%) H Rune (6%) | ||||||||||
A Zverev (67%) S-w Kwon (26%) | ||||||||||
A Zverev (51%) J Lehecka (27%) S-w Kwon (13%) | ||||||||||
J Lehecka (66%) A Michelsen (25%) | ||||||||||
A Zverev (34%) C Norrie (21%) C Ruud (19%) J Lehecka (13%) | ||||||||||
C Norrie (71%) D Lajovic (26%) | ||||||||||
C Norrie (41%) C Ruud (36%) M Purcell (12%) | ||||||||||
C Ruud (63%) M Purcell (31%) | ||||||||||
C Alcaraz (67%) A Zverev (10%) | ||||||||||
T Paul (64%) M Giron (14%) | ||||||||||
T Paul (48%) J-L Struff (21%) Y Watanuki (7%) | ||||||||||
J-L Struff (52%) M Kecmanovic (23%) Y Watanuki (23%) | ||||||||||
C Alcaraz (76%) T Paul (12%) | ||||||||||
M Mcdonald (49%) A Bublik (38%) | ||||||||||
C Alcaraz (85%) | ||||||||||
C Alcaraz (90%) |
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