Afcon: Ivory Coast open home cup

Tonight Afcon starts with Ivory Coast playing Guinea-Bissau. Ivory Coast are favourites to win the group and Guinea-Bissau are expected to finish fourth.

Group A				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Ivory Coast	0	0	0	4.4%	11%	25%	59%	94%
Nigeria	0	0	0	16%	27%	34%	22%	77%
Equatorial Guinea	0	0	0	27%	34%	26%	13%	62%
Guinea-Bissau	0	0	0	52%	28%	14%	5%	37%

Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast - Guinea-Bissau
Home	Draw	Away
98.7%	88%	71%	Nig - Equ
98.7%	88%	73%	94%	Home
98.8%	88%	69%	94%	Draw
98.7%	88%	70%	94%	Away

Nigeria

Nigeria - Equatorial Guinea
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
97%	96.3%	95.3%	93%	72%	55%	51%	47%	43%	Ivo - Gui
97%	96.5%	95.4%	93%	73%	57%	52%	48%	44%	77%	Home
97%	96%	95%	94%	72%	50%	48%	46%	42%	75%	Draw
97%	96%	95%	93%	71%	47%	44%	42%	37%	74%	Away

Equatorial Guinea

Nigeria - Equatorial Guinea
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
35%	38%	41%	46%	63%	89%	91%	93%	94%	Ivo - Gui
36%	39%	43%	48%	64%	88%	91%	93%	94%	63%	Home
33%	36%	40%	43%	63%	90%	92%	93%	94%	61%	Draw
30%	33%	36%	39%	62%	88%	91%	93%	93%	59%	Away

Guinea-Bissau

Ivory Coast - Guinea-Bissau
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
25%	27%	30%	32%	48%	78%	Nig - Equ
24%	27%	29%	32%	48%	78%	37%	Home
26%	28%	31%	33%	47%	78%	38%	Draw
24%	26%	29%	31%	47%	77%	36%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
1.25; Nigeria have 2.8% if they draw (or win) against Equatorial Guinea; otherwise 1.5%
1.21; Ivory Coast have 14% if they draw (or win) against Guinea-Bissau; otherwise 9.7%
1.2; Nigeria have 3.1% if they win against Equatorial Guinea; otherwise 1.8%
1.17; Ivory Coast have 14% if they win against Guinea-Bissau; otherwise 11%