Asian Cup: Qatar won the opening match

Qatar won the opening match against Lebanon and are favourites to win group A. Tonight we have a key match in Group B between Uzbekistan and Syria, while Australia play India.

Group A				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Qatar	1	+3	3	< 1%	5%	21%	73%	99.21%
Tajikistan	0	0	0	28%	36%	27%	9%	59%
China	0	0	0	17%	28%	38%	17%	75%
Lebanon	1	-3	0	54%	31%	14%	1.1%	33%

Group B				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Australia	0	0	0	1.3%	7%	27%	65%	98.1%
Syria	0	0	0	26%	49%	19%	5%	57%
Uzbekistan	0	0	0	5.0%	18%	48%	28%	91%
India	0	0	0	68%	25%	6%	1.1%	20%

Australia

Australia - India
Home	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
99.61%	92%	80%	77%	74%	67%	Uzb - Syr
99.61%	93%	83%	80%	76%	71%	98.2%	Home
99.6%	92%	74%	73%	70%	-	97.9%	Draw
99.6%	92%	75%	72%	71%	-	97.8%	Away

Syria

Uzbekistan - Syria
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
35%	40%	45%	50%	65%	89%	91%	92%	92%	Aus - Ind
35%	40%	45%	50%	66%	89%	91%	92%	92%	57%	Home
36%	39%	44%	48%	65%	90%	91%	91%	95%	56%	Draw
30%	36%	38%	41%	63%	87%	90%	92%	92%	52%	Away

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan - Syria
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
99.1%	99.0%	98.6%	97.8%	87%	75%	70%	66%	61%	Aus - Ind
99.1%	99.0%	98.6%	97.8%	87%	76%	72%	66%	61%	92%	Home
99%	99%	98.7%	98.2%	86%	68%	66%	61%	57%	90%	Draw
99%	99%	98%	98%	85%	60%	59%	58%	58%	89%	Away

India

Australia - India
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
14%	16%	18%	21%	32%	64%	Uzb - Syr
14%	16%	19%	21%	33%	64%	20%	Home
15%	17%	19%	22%	32%	65%	21%	Draw
13%	14%	16%	18%	32%	63%	18%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
1.02; Uzbekistan have 4.3% if they draw (or win) against Syria; otherwise 2.5%

 

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
China (38%) Tajikistan (27%) Qatar (21%)
		United Arab Emirates (31%) China (16%) Iran (14%) Palestine (13%)
United Arab Emirates (52%) Palestine (29%) Iran (16%)
				Japan (62%) Iran (7%) United Arab Emirates (7%)
Japan (81%) Iraq (16%)
		Japan (73%) Iraq (11%)
Thailand (20%) Bahrain (16%) Jordan (14%) Kyrgyzstan (12%) Oman (11%)
						Japan (47%) Australia (20%) South Korea (5%)
Australia (65%) Uzbekistan (28%)
		Australia (55%) Uzbekistan (21%) Iraq (4%)
Vietnam (19%) Tajikistan (18%) China (15%) Lebanon (13%) Iraq (10%)
				Australia (41%) Uzbekistan (13%) Saudi Arabia (11%) South Korea (8%)
Saudi Arabia (47%) Oman (39%) Thailand (11%)
		Saudi Arabia (27%) Oman (21%) Jordan (18%) South Korea (13%)
Jordan (40%) Bahrain (31%) South Korea (17%)
								Japan (36%) Iran (19%) Australia (15%) South Korea (13%)
Iran (80%) United Arab Emirates (14%)
		Iran (68%) United Arab Emirates (8%)
Syria (30%) Uzbekistan (14%) India (12%) Thailand (8%)
				Iran (41%) South Korea (31%) Iraq (8%)
South Korea (77%) Jordan (13%)
		South Korea (54%) Iraq (22%) Japan (11%)
Iraq (58%) Vietnam (17%) Japan (16%)
						Iran (31%) South Korea (22%) Qatar (9%) Australia (9%)
Qatar (73%) China (17%)
		Qatar (52%) Palestine (10%) United Arab Emirates (9%)
Palestine (33%) United Arab Emirates (20%) Bahrain (9%) Jordan (8%)
				Qatar (27%) Uzbekistan (19%) Australia (16%) Saudi Arabia (8%)
Uzbekistan (48%) Australia (27%) Syria (19%)
		Uzbekistan (32%) Australia (21%) Oman (15%) Saudi Arabia (15%)
Oman (35%) Saudi Arabia (32%) Thailand (22%)