PL: Burnley vs Luton in big relegation match

Burnley host a Luton in a critical match in the relegation race with a 20% swing for Luton and Burnley need to win or they are in a deep hole. Tottenham travel to Old Trafford for a match important for the qualifications to the European competitions. Tottenham has a 17% on the match for their CL chances and United need a win to keep their CL hope alive.

Hot Teams
Bournemouth: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Tottenham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
West Ham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Luton: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brentford: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Newcastle: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Arsenal: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Man United: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
Brighton: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 1.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
40	Man City	81.7	+51	< 1%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.90%	99.27%	59%	< 1%	< 1%	99.85%
45	Liverpool	79.3	+41	< 1%	99.99%	99.94%	99.63%	97.8%	32%	< 1%	< 1%	99.47%
40	Arsenal	73.4	+31	< 1%	99.61%	98.6%	95.4%	84%	6%	< 1%	5%	94%
42	Aston Villa	71.5	+23	< 1%	98.9%	96.7%	90%	72%	3.0%	< 1%	11%	87%
39	Tottenham	67.2	+18	< 1%	94%	87%	70%	35%	< 1%	3.4%	27%	64%
34	West Ham	61.3	+7	< 1%	68%	48%	21%	7%	< 1%	10%	39%	26%
28	Brighton	57.9	+10	< 1%	46%	26%	10%	2.6%	< 1%	10%	30%	17%
31	Man United	56.6	-4	< 1%	32%	16%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	12%	23%	4.4%
29	Newcastle	56.2	+14	< 1%	34%	18%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	12%	26%	5%
28	Chelsea	53.1	+3	< 1%	15%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	33%	13%	1.4%
28	Wolves	51.2	-4	< 1%	8%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	8%	< 1%
22	Bournemouth	47.2	-13	1.2%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	2.4%	< 1%
24	Fulham	45.5	-13	1.9%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	3.5%	< 1%
21	Crystal Palace	44.9	-9	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%
19	Brentford	43.2	-10	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.6%	< 1%
20	Forest	39.1	-21	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
16	Everton	38.2	-9	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Luton	32.1	-31	72%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	29.8	-32	84%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Sheffield United	24.2	-51	97.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	86%	46%	10%		28%	10%
Liverpool	82%	38%	7%	< 1%	1.6%
Arsenal	20%	1.5%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	40%	2.8%	< 1%		< 1%
Tottenham	6%	< 1%			< 1%
West Ham	12%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brighton	15%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Man United	< 1%	< 1%			< 1%
Newcastle	3.5%	< 1%			< 1%
Chelsea	32%	< 1%
Wolves	1.9%
Bournemouth	< 1%
Fulham	10%	< 1%
Crystal Palace	1.5%
Brentford	3.2%
Forest	< 1%
Everton	< 1%
Luton	< 1%
Burnley	< 1%
Sheffield United	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Newcastle vs Man City (3%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (54%)
Man City	48%	54%	66%
Liverpool	39%	35%	27%
Arsenal	8%	6%	4.5%
Bournemouth vs Liverpool (2.6%)	Home Win (26%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (51%)
Liverpool	23%	28%	38%
Man City	66%	62%	54%

	Man City			Liverpool			Arsenal			Aston Villa
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
92	1.9%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
91	3.1%	1.2%	99.5%	1.3%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	5%	2.2%	99.1%	2.2%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
89	8%	2.9%	98.2%	3.6%	1.4%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	96%
88	12%	3.8%	97.1%	6%	2.0%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	88%
87	17%	5%	95%	8%	2.6%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	83%
86	23%	6%	92%	12%	3.5%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	75%
85	30%	7%	87%	16%	4.3%	73%	1.4%	< 1%	67%	< 1%	< 1%	64%
84	37%	7%	82%	21%	5%	65%	2.4%	1.0%	56%	1.2%	< 1%	56%
83	45%	8%	75%	27%	6%	56%	3.8%	1.4%	46%	1.9%	< 1%	44%
82	53%	8%	67%	34%	7%	46%	6%	2.0%	36%	3.0%	1.1%	34%
81	60%	8%	58%	42%	7%	37%	9%	2.8%	25%	4.6%	1.6%	25%
80	68%	7%	48%	49%	8%	28%	12%	3.5%	18%	7%	2.2%	16%
79	74%	7%	37%	57%	8%	20%	17%	4.5%	11%	10%	2.9%	10%
78	80%	6%	28%	64%	7%	14%	22%	5%	7%	13%	3.7%	6%
77	85%	4.8%	20%	71%	7%	8%	28%	6%	3.7%	18%	4.5%	2.9%
76	89%	4.0%	13%	77%	6%	5%	35%	7%	1.9%	23%	5%	1.5%
75	92%	3.1%	7%	82%	5%	2.7%	42%	7%	< 1%	29%	6%	< 1%
74	94%	2.4%	4%	87%	4.4%	1.4%	50%	8%	< 1%	36%	7%	< 1%
73	96.3%	1.8%	2%	90%	3.6%	< 1%	57%	8%	< 1%	43%	7%	< 1%
72	97.5%	1.3%	< 1%	93%	2.9%	< 1%	64%	7%	< 1%	50%	7%	< 1%
71	98.4%	< 1%	< 1%	95.3%	2.1%	< 1%	71%	7%	< 1%	58%	7%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Man United vs Tottenham (3.2%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Tottenham	57%	64%	74%
Man United	7%	3.2%	1.7%

	Arsenal			Aston Villa			Tottenham			West Ham			Brighton			Newcastle			Man United			Chelsea
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
84	2.4%	1.0%	100%	1.2%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
83	3.8%	1.4%	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
82	6%	2.0%	100%	3.0%	1.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
81	9%	2.8%	100%	4.6%	1.6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
80	12%	3.5%	100%	7%	2.2%	>99.99%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
79	17%	4.5%	100%	10%	2.9%	>99.99%	1.7%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
78	22%	5%	>99.99%	13%	3.7%	99.98%	2.7%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	28%	6%	99.97%	18%	4.5%	99.96%	4.1%	1.4%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	35%	7%	99.9%	23%	5%	99.9%	6%	2.0%	99.5%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	42%	7%	99.8%	29%	6%	99.7%	9%	2.6%	99.0%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	50%	8%	99.6%	36%	7%	99.3%	12%	3.4%	98.2%	1.1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	57%	8%	99.3%	43%	7%	98.8%	16%	4.2%	97.0%	1.9%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	64%	7%	98.6%	50%	7%	97.9%	21%	5%	95.4%	2.9%	1.1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	93%
71	71%	7%	97.6%	58%	7%	96.3%	27%	6%	93%	4.4%	1.5%	87%	1.1%	< 1%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	86%
70	77%	6%	95.9%	65%	7%	94%	34%	6%	90%	6%	2.0%	81%	1.8%	< 1%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	84%
69	83%	5%	93%	71%	7%	91%	41%	7%	85%	9%	2.7%	74%	2.8%	1.0%	76%	1.1%	< 1%	77%	1.4%	< 1%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	74%
68	87%	4.4%	89%	77%	6%	86%	48%	7%	80%	13%	3.4%	65%	4.3%	1.4%	67%	1.7%	< 1%	69%	2.1%	< 1%	59%	< 1%	< 1%	66%
67	90%	3.6%	84%	82%	5%	80%	55%	7%	73%	17%	4.2%	55%	6%	1.9%	57%	2.8%	1.0%	58%	3.3%	1.2%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	56%
66	93%	2.8%	76%	87%	4.4%	71%	63%	7%	65%	22%	5%	45%	9%	2.6%	47%	4.2%	1.4%	45%	4.9%	1.6%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	43%
65	95.4%	2.1%	67%	90%	3.6%	60%	69%	7%	55%	28%	6%	35%	12%	3.2%	37%	6%	2.0%	33%	7%	2.2%	25%	1.6%	< 1%	32%
64	96.9%	1.6%	56%	93%	2.8%	48%	76%	6%	43%	34%	6%	27%	16%	4.0%	28%	9%	2.7%	23%	10%	2.9%	16%	2.5%	< 1%	20%
63	98.0%	1.1%	44%	95.4%	2.1%	36%	81%	6%	32%	41%	7%	20%	21%	4.8%	22%	12%	3.3%	14%	14%	3.7%	9%	3.8%	1.4%	12%
62	98.8%	< 1%	33%	96.9%	1.6%	25%	86%	4.7%	22%	48%	7%	15%	26%	5%	16%	16%	4.2%	8%	18%	4.4%	5%	6%	1.8%	7%
61	99.25%	< 1%	25%	98.0%	1.1%	15%	90%	3.8%	14%	56%	7%	12%	32%	6%	13%	21%	5.0%	4.2%	23%	5%	2.1%	8%	2.5%	3%
60	99.57%	< 1%	17%	98.8%	< 1%	8%	93%	3.0%	8%	63%	7%	10%	39%	7%	11%	27%	6%	1.9%	29%	6%	< 1%	11%	3.2%	1.3%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Tottenham (3%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Man United	35%	24%	19%
Tottenham	88%	92%	95.8%
Brighton vs Wolves (2.2%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Brighton	53%	43%	37%
Wolves	6%	8%	14%

	Aston Villa			Tottenham			West Ham			Brighton			Newcastle			Man United			Chelsea			Wolves			Brentford			Fulham			Bournemouth			Crystal Palace			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
74	36%	7%	100%	12%	3.4%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	43%	7%	>99.99%	16%	4.2%	>99.99%	1.9%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	50%	7%	>99.99%	21%	5%	99.98%	2.9%	1.1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	58%	7%	99.98%	27%	6%	99.95%	4.4%	1.5%	99.6%	1.1%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	65%	7%	99.93%	34%	6%	99.9%	6%	2.0%	99.5%	1.8%	< 1%	99.4%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	71%	7%	99.9%	41%	7%	99.7%	9%	2.7%	98.9%	2.8%	1.0%	99.1%	1.1%	< 1%	99%	1.4%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	77%	6%	99.7%	48%	7%	99.5%	13%	3.4%	98.1%	4.3%	1.4%	98%	1.7%	< 1%	99%	2.1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	82%	5%	99.4%	55%	7%	98.9%	17%	4.2%	97.2%	6%	1.9%	97%	2.8%	1.0%	97%	3.3%	1.2%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	87%	4.4%	98.9%	63%	7%	98.1%	22%	5%	95.6%	9%	2.6%	95%	4.2%	1.4%	95%	4.9%	1.6%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	90%	3.6%	97.9%	69%	7%	96.7%	28%	6%	93%	12%	3.2%	93%	6%	2.0%	93%	7%	2.2%	89%	1.6%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	93%	2.8%	96%	76%	6%	94%	34%	6%	90%	16%	4.0%	89%	9%	2.7%	88%	10%	2.9%	83%	2.5%	< 1%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	95.4%	2.1%	94%	81%	6%	91%	41%	7%	85%	21%	4.8%	84%	12%	3.3%	83%	14%	3.7%	76%	3.8%	1.4%	80%	1.6%	< 1%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	96.9%	1.6%	89%	86%	4.7%	85%	48%	7%	79%	26%	5%	78%	16%	4.2%	76%	18%	4.4%	67%	6%	1.8%	71%	2.5%	< 1%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	67%	< 1%	< 1%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	98.0%	1.1%	84%	90%	3.8%	78%	56%	7%	71%	32%	6%	70%	21%	5.0%	66%	23%	5%	57%	8%	2.5%	61%	3.8%	1.3%	59%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%	< 1%	59%	< 1%	< 1%	56%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	98.8%	< 1%	77%	93%	3.0%	67%	63%	7%	61%	39%	7%	61%	27%	6%	56%	29%	6%	46%	11%	3.2%	49%	6%	1.8%	46%	< 1%	< 1%	55%	< 1%	< 1%	48%	1.4%	< 1%	43%	< 1%	< 1%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	99.27%	< 1%	68%	95%	2.3%	56%	70%	7%	51%	46%	7%	51%	33%	6%	45%	36%	7%	34%	15%	4.0%	38%	8%	2.5%	34%	< 1%	< 1%	43%	< 1%	< 1%	35%	2.2%	< 1%	32%	< 1%	< 1%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	37%
58	99.57%	< 1%	60%	96.7%	1.7%	43%	76%	6%	40%	53%	7%	41%	40%	7%	34%	43%	7%	24%	20%	4.8%	27%	11%	3.2%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	27%	1.4%	< 1%	24%	3.3%	1.1%	21%	1.1%	< 1%	25%	< 1%	< 1%	23%
57	99.77%	< 1%	51%	97.9%	1.2%	31%	81%	5%	31%	60%	7%	32%	48%	7%	24%	50%	7%	16%	26%	6%	18%	15%	4.0%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	2.2%	< 1%	16%	4.8%	1.5%	12%	1.7%	< 1%	16%	< 1%	< 1%	12%
56	99.88%	< 1%	45%	98.7%	< 1%	21%	86%	4.6%	23%	67%	7%	25%	55%	7%	16%	58%	7%	9%	32%	6%	12%	20%	4.9%	9%	1.4%	< 1%	11%	3.4%	1.2%	10%	7%	2.0%	7%	2.6%	< 1%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	8%
55	99.94%	< 1%	42%	99.23%	< 1%	13%	90%	3.8%	18%	73%	6%	20%	62%	7%	11%	65%	7%	5%	39%	7%	7%	26%	6%	5%	2.2%	< 1%	7%	5.0%	1.6%	6%	9%	2.6%	3%	4.0%	1.3%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	4%
54	99.97%	< 1%	38%	99.57%	< 1%	10%	93%	3.0%	15%	78%	6%	17%	69%	7%	7%	72%	7%	2.8%	47%	7%	4.7%	33%	7%	3.4%	3.3%	1.1%	5%	7%	2.1%	4%	13%	3.3%	1.9%	6%	1.8%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	2%
53	99.99%	< 1%	43%	99.77%	< 1%	6%	95%	2.3%	12%	83%	4.9%	16%	75%	6%	4.9%	78%	6%	1.5%	54%	7%	3.6%	40%	7%	2.4%	4.8%	1.5%	4%	10%	2.8%	3%	17%	4.0%	1.2%	8%	2.4%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	2%
52	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.88%	< 1%	4%	96.6%	1.7%	12%	87%	4.1%	15%	81%	6%	4.1%	83%	5%	1.1%	61%	7%	3.1%	47%	7%	2.1%	7%	2.0%	3%	13%	3.5%	2.8%	22%	4.8%	< 1%	11%	3.0%	1.6%	1.1%	< 1%	1%
51	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.94%	< 1%	6%	97.9%	1.2%	11%	91%	3.4%	15%	85%	4.7%	3.6%	87%	4.4%	< 1%	68%	7%	2.8%	55%	8%	1.9%	9%	2.6%	3%	18%	4.2%	2.7%	27%	5%	< 1%	15%	3.8%	1.6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
50	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.97%	< 1%	5%	98.7%	< 1%	12%	93%	2.7%	15%	89%	3.9%	3.5%	91%	3.6%	< 1%	75%	6%	2.8%	62%	7%	1.9%	13%	3.3%	3.3%	23%	5%	2.6%	33%	6%	< 1%	20%	4.6%	1.4%	2.7%	< 1%	1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Man United vs Tottenham (2.9%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Man United	47%	35%	30%
Tottenham	93%	95.2%	97.7%
Brighton vs Wolves (2.8%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Brighton	64%	53%	47%
Wolves	10%	14%	21%

	Tottenham			West Ham			Brighton			Chelsea			Newcastle			Man United			Wolves			Fulham			Bournemouth			Brentford			Crystal Palace			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
71	27%	6%	99.97%	4.4%	1.5%	99.9%	1.1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	34%	6%	99.96%	6%	2.0%	99.8%	1.8%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	41%	7%	99.9%	9%	2.7%	99.6%	2.8%	1.0%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	1.1%	< 1%	99.7%	1.4%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	48%	7%	99.8%	13%	3.4%	99.3%	4.3%	1.4%	99.3%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	1.7%	< 1%	99.5%	2.1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	55%	7%	99.6%	17%	4.2%	98.8%	6%	1.9%	98.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	2.8%	1.0%	99%	3.3%	1.2%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	63%	7%	99.2%	22%	5%	98.3%	9%	2.6%	98.2%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	4.2%	1.4%	98%	4.9%	1.6%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	69%	7%	98.7%	28%	6%	97.2%	12%	3.2%	97%	1.6%	< 1%	99%	6%	2.0%	97%	7%	2.2%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	76%	6%	97.7%	34%	6%	95.5%	16%	4.0%	95%	2.5%	< 1%	97%	9%	2.7%	94%	10%	2.9%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	81%	6%	95.9%	41%	7%	93%	21%	4.8%	92%	3.8%	1.4%	95%	12%	3.3%	92%	14%	3.7%	88%	1.6%	< 1%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	86%	4.7%	93%	48%	7%	90%	26%	5%	89%	6%	1.8%	93%	16%	4.2%	88%	18%	4.4%	83%	2.5%	< 1%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	90%	3.8%	89%	56%	7%	85%	32%	6%	84%	8%	2.5%	89%	21%	5.0%	82%	23%	5%	76%	3.8%	1.3%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	93%	3.0%	83%	63%	7%	79%	39%	7%	78%	11%	3.2%	84%	27%	6%	75%	29%	6%	68%	6%	1.8%	67%	< 1%	< 1%	72%	1.4%	< 1%	64%	< 1%	< 1%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	67%	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	95%	2.3%	75%	70%	7%	71%	46%	7%	70%	15%	4.0%	77%	33%	6%	67%	36%	7%	58%	8%	2.5%	56%	< 1%	< 1%	63%	2.2%	< 1%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	65%	< 1%	< 1%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	60%
58	96.7%	1.7%	65%	76%	6%	61%	53%	7%	61%	20%	4.8%	69%	40%	7%	57%	43%	7%	47%	11%	3.2%	44%	1.4%	< 1%	51%	3.3%	1.1%	42%	< 1%	< 1%	50%	1.1%	< 1%	47%	< 1%	< 1%	40%
57	97.9%	1.2%	52%	81%	5%	51%	60%	7%	52%	26%	6%	61%	48%	7%	46%	50%	7%	36%	15%	4.0%	33%	2.2%	< 1%	40%	4.8%	1.5%	30%	< 1%	< 1%	39%	1.7%	< 1%	34%	< 1%	< 1%	34%
56	98.7%	< 1%	40%	86%	4.6%	41%	67%	7%	42%	32%	6%	53%	55%	7%	36%	58%	7%	26%	20%	4.9%	23%	3.4%	1.2%	30%	7%	2.0%	20%	1.4%	< 1%	26%	2.6%	< 1%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	22%
55	99.23%	< 1%	28%	90%	3.8%	31%	73%	6%	33%	39%	7%	46%	62%	7%	26%	65%	7%	17%	26%	6%	15%	5.0%	1.6%	22%	9%	2.6%	12%	2.2%	< 1%	18%	4.0%	1.3%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	14%
54	99.57%	< 1%	19%	93%	3.0%	23%	78%	6%	26%	47%	7%	40%	69%	7%	18%	72%	7%	10%	33%	7%	9%	7%	2.1%	17%	13%	3.3%	7%	3.3%	1.1%	11%	6%	1.8%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	7%
53	99.77%	< 1%	11%	95%	2.3%	17%	83%	4.9%	21%	54%	7%	37%	75%	6%	11%	78%	6%	6%	40%	7%	5%	10%	2.8%	13%	17%	4.0%	3.7%	4.8%	1.5%	7%	8%	2.4%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	5%
52	99.88%	< 1%	7%	96.6%	1.7%	14%	87%	4.1%	18%	61%	7%	34%	81%	6%	8%	83%	5%	3.2%	47%	7%	3.6%	13%	3.5%	11%	22%	4.8%	1.9%	7%	2.0%	5%	11%	3.0%	2.9%	1.1%	< 1%	2%
51	99.94%	< 1%	7%	97.9%	1.2%	12%	91%	3.4%	16%	68%	7%	33%	85%	4.7%	5%	87%	4.4%	1.8%	55%	8%	2.5%	18%	4.2%	11%	27%	5%	1.2%	9%	2.6%	4%	15%	3.8%	2.1%	1.7%	< 1%	1%
50	99.97%	< 1%	5%	98.7%	< 1%	12%	93%	2.7%	15%	75%	6%	33%	89%	3.9%	4%	91%	3.6%	1.2%	62%	7%	2.1%	23%	5%	11%	33%	6%	< 1%	13%	3.3%	3%	20%	4.6%	1.5%	2.7%	< 1%	1%
49	99.99%	< 1%	4%	99.22%	< 1%	12%	95.4%	2.0%	15%	80%	6%	33%	92%	3.1%	4%	94%	2.8%	1.0%	69%	7%	1.9%	28%	6%	10%	40%	7%	< 1%	17%	4.1%	3.3%	25%	5%	1.6%	4.0%	1.3%	1.1%
48	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.56%	< 1%	12%	96.9%	1.5%	15%	85%	4.8%	32%	95%	2.4%	3%	95.7%	2.1%	< 1%	76%	6%	1.9%	35%	6%	10%	47%	7%	< 1%	22%	4.8%	3.1%	31%	6%	1.5%	6%	1.8%	< 1%
47	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.76%	< 1%	12%	98.0%	1.1%	15%	89%	4.0%	32%	96.5%	1.8%	4%	97.2%	1.5%	< 1%	81%	6%	1.9%	42%	7%	10%	54%	7%	< 1%	27%	6%	3.2%	38%	7%	1.4%	8%	2.4%	< 1%
46	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.88%	< 1%	12%	98.8%	< 1%	15%	92%	3.2%	33%	97.8%	1.2%	3%	98.3%	1.1%	< 1%	86%	4.8%	1.9%	49%	7%	10%	61%	7%	< 1%	33%	6%	3.2%	45%	7%	1.4%	11%	3.1%	1.0%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Burnley vs Luton (4.3%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Luton	22%	29%	42%
Burnley	21%	12%	8%
Brentford vs Forest (2.4%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Forest	80%	85%	91%
Brentford	97.4%	94%	91%

	Sheffield United			Burnley			Luton			Everton			Forest			Brentford			Crystal Palace			Fulham			Bournemouth
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
51	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	1.7%	< 1%	100%	9%	2.6%	100%	15%	3.8%	100%	18%	4.2%	100%	27%	5%	100%
50	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.7%	< 1%	100%	2.7%	< 1%	100%	13%	3.3%	100%	20%	4.6%	100%	23%	5%	100%	33%	6%	100%
49	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.6%	< 1%	100%	4.0%	1.3%	100%	17%	4.1%	100%	25%	5%	100%	28%	6%	100%	40%	7%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	4.0%	1.3%	100%	6%	1.8%	100%	22%	4.8%	100%	31%	6%	100%	35%	6%	100%	47%	7%	100%
47	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	6%	1.8%	100%	8%	2.4%	100%	27%	6%	100%	38%	7%	100%	42%	7%	100%	54%	7%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	8%	2.5%	100%	11%	3.1%	100%	33%	6%	100%	45%	7%	100%	49%	7%	100%	61%	7%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	12%	3.3%	100%	15%	3.8%	100%	40%	7%	100%	52%	7%	>99.99%	56%	7%	100%	68%	7%	100%
44	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	99.9%	16%	4.0%	100%	20%	4.7%	>99.99%	47%	7%	100%	60%	7%	100%	64%	7%	>99.99%	74%	6%	100%
43	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%	2.3%	< 1%	99.8%	20%	4.9%	>99.99%	25%	6%	99.98%	54%	7%	>99.99%	67%	7%	>99.99%	70%	7%	>99.99%	80%	6%	99.99%
42	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.2%	< 1%	99%	3.5%	1.2%	99.4%	26%	6%	99.96%	32%	6%	99.9%	61%	7%	99.97%	73%	7%	99.97%	77%	6%	99.96%	85%	4.8%	99.96%
41	< 1%	< 1%	98%	2.0%	< 1%	98%	5%	1.7%	98%	33%	6%	99.9%	39%	7%	99.7%	68%	7%	99.9%	79%	6%	99.9%	82%	5%	99.8%	89%	4.0%	99.8%
40	< 1%	< 1%	95%	3.1%	1.1%	95%	7%	2.3%	95%	40%	7%	99.4%	46%	7%	99.1%	75%	6%	99.6%	84%	5%	99.6%	87%	4.6%	99.5%	92%	3.3%	99.3%
39	< 1%	< 1%	89%	4.6%	1.5%	90%	10%	3.0%	91%	47%	7%	98.4%	53%	8%	97.5%	80%	6%	98.7%	88%	4.2%	98.7%	90%	3.8%	98.4%	94%	2.5%	97.8%
38	< 1%	< 1%	79%	7%	2.1%	81%	14%	3.8%	82%	55%	8%	96.1%	61%	8%	95%	85%	4.8%	96.6%	92%	3.4%	96%	93%	3.0%	96%	96.2%	1.9%	95%
37	< 1%	< 1%	67%	10%	2.8%	69%	19%	4.7%	71%	62%	7%	92%	68%	7%	89%	89%	4.0%	93%	94%	2.6%	93%	95.6%	2.2%	91%	97.6%	1.4%	89%
36	1.4%	< 1%	52%	13%	3.6%	55%	25%	6%	58%	69%	7%	85%	75%	7%	82%	92%	3.2%	86%	96.2%	1.9%	85%	97.2%	1.6%	84%	98.5%	< 1%	80%
35	2.2%	< 1%	36%	18%	4.4%	41%	31%	7%	44%	76%	6%	76%	81%	6%	71%	95%	2.5%	77%	97.6%	1.4%	75%	98.3%	1.1%	73%	99.12%	< 1%	70%
34	3.4%	1.2%	24%	23%	5%	28%	38%	7%	31%	81%	6%	64%	86%	5%	59%	96.4%	1.8%	64%	98.6%	< 1%	62%	99.04%	< 1%	60%	99.51%	< 1%	54%
33	5%	1.7%	13%	29%	6%	17%	46%	8%	20%	86%	4.8%	51%	90%	4.1%	45%	97.8%	1.3%	49%	99.16%	< 1%	48%	99.49%	< 1%	45%	99.74%	< 1%	39%
32	7%	2.3%	7%	36%	7%	10%	54%	8%	12%	90%	4.0%	38%	93%	3.2%	33%	98.6%	< 1%	36%	99.54%	< 1%	34%	99.74%	< 1%	30%	99.87%	< 1%	25%
31	10%	3.0%	3.0%	44%	7%	5%	62%	8%	7%	93%	3.1%	26%	95.6%	2.4%	23%	99.20%	< 1%	25%	99.76%	< 1%	23%	99.88%	< 1%	21%	99.94%	< 1%	14%
30	14%	3.8%	1.3%	51%	8%	2.5%	69%	8%	3.1%	95.5%	2.3%	17%	97.3%	1.7%	13%	99.56%	< 1%	15%	99.88%	< 1%	12%	99.95%	< 1%	10%	99.97%	< 1%	10%
29	19%	4.7%	< 1%	59%	8%	< 1%	76%	7%	1.3%	97.2%	1.6%	9%	98.4%	1.1%	8%	99.77%	< 1%	7%	99.95%	< 1%	7%	99.98%	< 1%	4%	99.99%	< 1%	11%
28	24%	6%	< 1%	67%	8%	< 1%	82%	6%	< 1%	98.3%	1.1%	5%	99.14%	< 1%	4%	99.89%	< 1%	3%	99.98%	< 1%	4%	>99.99%	< 1%	2%	>99.99%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	83%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	68%
League cup winners	100%	64%	60%
Sixth team	98.4%	95.4%	4.3%
Seventh team	86%	66%	3.8%
Eighth team	52%	12%	2.9%

Simulated points for winner: 81 - 86
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 38

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brighton	58%	21%	21%	Brentford
Crystal Palace	50%	23%	27%	Bournemouth
Chelsea	57%	22%	21%	Fulham
Newcastle	24%	22%	54%	Man City
Everton	34%	24%	42%	Aston Villa
Man United	44%	24%	32%	Tottenham
Burnley	54%	22%	23%	Luton
Arsenal	70%	17%	13%	Crystal Palace
Brentford	57%	22%	21%	Forest
Sheffield United	25%	23%	52%	West Ham
Bournemouth	26%	23%	51%	Liverpool
Brighton	58%	21%	20%	Wolves

Most likely combo of teams in CL

38%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
10%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
4.9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
4.9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham
3.3%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.1%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham
2.4%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
2.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

56%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
11%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
10%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
6%	Everton, Luton, Sheffield United
5%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
2.6%	Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United
1.3%	Brentford, Luton, Sheffield United
1.3%	Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United
1.1%	Burnley, Fulham, Sheffield United