PL: Man City 58% favourites after half the season

Man City take on average three points more than Liverpool and win the league in 58% of the simulations.

Hot Teams
Bournemouth: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 7.4 more than expected
West Ham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.8 more than expected
Everton: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Aston Villa: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Newcastle: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 6.2 less than expected
Brentford: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 5.8 less than expected
Man City: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Brighton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 less than expected
Arsenal: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
37	Man City	81.8	+53	< 1%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.88%	99.32%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	99.85%
42	Liverpool	78.8	+41	< 1%	99.96%	99.83%	99.33%	97.2%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	99.28%
40	Arsenal	76.2	+34	< 1%	99.82%	99.35%	97.8%	93%	13%	< 1%	2.4%	97.3%
39	Aston Villa	70.4	+23	< 1%	97.4%	93%	85%	65%	1.9%	1.2%	16%	81%
36	Tottenham	66.0	+17	< 1%	89%	77%	58%	27%	< 1%	5%	31%	53%
29	Newcastle	60.7	+21	< 1%	63%	43%	22%	7%	< 1%	11%	40%	20%
31	Man United	59.8	-0	< 1%	50%	31%	14%	4.4%	< 1%	13%	31%	13%
33	West Ham	59.6	+3	< 1%	50%	31%	14%	4.3%	< 1%	12%	29%	18%
27	Brighton	57.2	+8	< 1%	35%	20%	8%	2.3%	< 1%	10%	23%	17%
25	Chelsea	52.3	+3	< 1%	10%	4.2%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	33%	10%	1.1%
25	Wolves	48.0	-10	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	2.2%	< 1%
19	Brentford	47.9	-3	< 1%	2.8%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	8%	< 1%
22	Bournemouth	44.2	-19	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Crystal Palace	43.9	-10	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%
21	Fulham	43.7	-14	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	2.8%	< 1%
16	Everton	38.0	-9	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Forest	37.1	-22	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Luton	32.8	-32	64%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	30.3	-33	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Sheffield United	24.4	-52	97.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	86%	47%	10%		28%	10%
Liverpool	82%	38%	7%	< 1%	1.2%
Arsenal	28%	2.9%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	40%	2.1%	< 1%		< 1%
Tottenham	4.7%	< 1%			< 1%
Newcastle	7%	< 1%			< 1%
Man United	1.1%	< 1%			< 1%
West Ham	8%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brighton	14%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Chelsea	33%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Brentford	6%
Bournemouth	< 1%
Crystal Palace	1.4%
Fulham	10%	< 1%
Everton	< 1%
Forest	< 1%
Luton	< 1%
Burnley	< 1%
Sheffield United	< 1%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	>99.99%	>99.99%	84%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	67%
League cup winners	100%	63%	59%
Sixth team	98.4%	95.6%	2.6%
Seventh team	86%	66%	2.9%
Eighth team	51%	11%	3.0%

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 87
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 37

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brighton	51%	23%	26%	Brentford
Crystal Palace	57%	22%	21%	Bournemouth
Luton	28%	23%	49%	Chelsea
Aston Villa	70%	17%	13%	Burnley
Wolves	50%	23%	27%	Everton
Man City	89%	7%	3.2%	Sheffield United
Crystal Palace	41%	24%	34%	Brentford
Forest	32%	24%	44%	Man United
Tottenham	68%	18%	14%	Bournemouth
Fulham	25%	23%	53%	Arsenal
Liverpool	58%	21%	21%	Newcastle
West Ham	44%	24%	32%	Brighton

Most likely combo of teams in CL

30%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
10%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.4%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
4.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.1%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
3.1%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

45%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
15%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
10%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
8%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
6%	Everton, Luton, Sheffield United
2.0%	Bournemouth, Burnley, Sheffield United
2.0%	Burnley, Fulham, Sheffield United
1.9%	Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United
1.7%	Everton, Forest, Sheffield United
1.0%	Burnley, Forest, Luton