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Hot Teams
Bournemouth: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 7.9 more than expected
Everton: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 6.3 more than expected
Aston Villa: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
West Ham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Tottenham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected
Cold Teams
Forest: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.4 less than expected
Man City: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Brentford: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Newcastle: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Man United: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
At Christmas, Man City 49% favourites with on average 2.5 points more than Arsenal in the simulations. Liverpool follow 0.6 points behind Arsenal and then a gap of roughly six points down to Aston Villa.
Given the standings in the European competitions, Premier League has a 75% to get a fifth place in Champions League, affecting especially Aston Villa (31%), Tottenham (33%) and Newcastle (21%), who are favourites on finishing fifth.
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 34 | Man City | 80.9 | +52 | < 1% | >99.99% | 99.95% | 99.70% | 98.4% | 49% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.51% |
| 40 | Arsenal | 78.4 | +38 | < 1% | 99.94% | 99.72% | 98.7% | 95% | 25% | < 1% | 1.8% | 98.0% |
| 39 | Liverpool | 77.8 | +40 | < 1% | 99.94% | 99.70% | 98.6% | 94% | 22% | < 1% | 1.7% | 98.1% |
| 39 | Aston Villa | 71.5 | +24 | < 1% | 98.4% | 95.3% | 87% | 66% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 16% | 82% |
| 36 | Tottenham | 67.1 | +19 | < 1% | 93% | 83% | 63% | 30% | < 1% | 4.5% | 34% | 55% |
| 29 | Newcastle | 63.0 | +25 | < 1% | 80% | 62% | 33% | 12% | < 1% | 9% | 46% | 28% |
| 28 | Man United | 58.4 | -1 | < 1% | 44% | 23% | 9% | 2.3% | < 1% | 13% | 29% | 7% |
| 30 | West Ham | 57.3 | -0 | < 1% | 36% | 17% | 6% | 1.5% | < 1% | 12% | 22% | 11% |
| 24 | Brighton | 55.9 | +6 | < 1% | 30% | 14% | 5% | 1.2% | < 1% | 10% | 20% | 14% |
| 22 | Chelsea | 51.2 | +3 | < 1% | 9% | 3.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 33% | 9% | < 1% |
| 19 | Brentford | 49.8 | +1 | < 1% | 7% | 2.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4.3% | 10% | < 1% |
| 22 | Wolves | 45.8 | -14 | 1.3% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | < 1% |
| 21 | Fulham | 45.0 | -11 | 1.9% | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 8% | 3.2% | < 1% |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 44.8 | -10 | 2.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.0% | < 1% |
| 19 | Bournemouth | 42.7 | -22 | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 16 | Everton | 38.6 | -8 | 14% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 14 | Forest | 34.7 | -26 | 40% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 11 | Burnley | 31.1 | -32 | 70% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 12 | Luton | 30.8 | -33 | 71% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 9 | Sheffield United | 26.0 | -51 | 93% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Titles
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 81% | 37% | 6% | 24% | 6% | ||
| Arsenal | 37% | 4.7% | < 1% | 1.7% | < 1% | ||
| Liverpool | 79% | 32% | 5% | < 1% | 1.0% | ||
| Aston Villa | 35% | 2.1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Tottenham | 5.0% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| Newcastle | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| Man United | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| West Ham | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Brighton | 14% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Chelsea | 33% | < 1% | |||||
| Brentford | 6% | ||||||
| Wolves | < 1% | ||||||
| Fulham | 10% | < 1% | |||||
| Crystal Palace | 1.4% | ||||||
| Bournemouth | < 1% | ||||||
| Everton | < 1% | ||||||
| Forest | < 1% | ||||||
| Burnley | < 1% | ||||||
| Luton | < 1% | ||||||
| Sheffield United | < 1% |
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL | |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | >99.99% |
| Fifth team | >99.99% | >99.99% | 76% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 68% |
| League cup winners | 100% | 62% | 58% |
| Sixth team | 97.8% | 94% | 2.2% |
| Seventh team | 83% | 62% | 3.0% |
| Eighth team | 47% | 10% | 3.3% |
Simulated points for winner: 81 - 86
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 74
Simulated points for 17th team: 33 - 37
Coming Matches
| Home | Draw | Away | ||
| Brighton | 51% | 23% | 26% | Brentford |
| Crystal Palace | 57% | 22% | 21% | Bournemouth |
| Newcastle | 71% | 17% | 12% | Forest |
| Sheffield United | 48% | 24% | 29% | Luton |
| Bournemouth | 43% | 24% | 33% | Fulham |
| Burnley | 19% | 21% | 60% | Liverpool |
| Man United | 46% | 24% | 31% | Aston Villa |
| Chelsea | 56% | 22% | 22% | Crystal Palace |
| Brentford | 59% | 21% | 20% | Wolves |
| Everton | 15% | 19% | 66% | Man City |
| Brighton | 47% | 24% | 29% | Tottenham |
| Arsenal | 68% | 18% | 14% | West Ham |
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 30% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 13% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 12% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City |
| 4.6% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 4.4% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham |
| 4.4% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 3.2% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 3.0% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham |
| 3.0% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham |
| 3.0% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 40% | Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 17% | Forest, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 16% | Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 5% | Everton, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 4.7% | Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United |
| 3.6% | Burnley, Forest, Luton |
| 1.9% | Bournemouth, Burnley, Sheffield United |
| 1.9% | Everton, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 1.8% | Bournemouth, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 1.1% | Burnley, Everton, Luton |
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